海外之声 | 鲍威尔转向耐心：政策制定者利用各种机会传播新哲学（中英双语）

观点速递

本文作者是OMFIF美国编辑Darrell Delamaide。原文首先刊于OMFIF Commentary。OMFIF是一家总部位于伦敦的全球金融智库。

美联储主席杰罗米·鲍威尔想确保每个人都了解美联储的立场已经改变，在美联储公开市场委员会发表（FOMC）及事后新闻发布会中多次强调“耐心”及“缓和的通胀压力”。多方保持相同政策立场，旨在达到既定目标。

中文译文如下：

鲍威尔转向耐心

政策制定者利用各种机会传播新哲学

Darrell Delamaide

翻译：刘斌

2019年2月7日

美联储主席杰罗米.鲍威尔想确保每个人都了解美联储的立场已经改变，耐心是新的关键词——不是逐渐提高利率，也不是均衡风险，而是耐心。

1月30日，在美联储公开市场委员会发表（FOMC）的会后声明中，就包含了“耐心”这个关键词，表明美联储在目前缓和的通胀压力下，对未来货币政策的调整的态度。同时，美联储主席鲍威尔在会后召开的新闻发布会中，也8次使用了与“耐心”有关的词语。

投资者明白—利率暂时不会提高，因此股票和债券都上涨了。但是记者们却在指责鲍威尔，12月新闻发布会呈现鹰派十足的观点，现在怎么态度急转弯了？

他们对此发出疑问：“耐心有时限吗？”，“假如核心通胀率目标发生适度和短暂的超调，美联储还会耐心吗？”，“是否需要同时实现经济改善和通胀升高，美联储才会改变耐心的立场？”

鲍威尔在他的回答中贯穿“耐心”一词，如此耐心成为新闻发布会的主题。耐心，耐心，耐心，再耐心。

圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德是第一位为耐心限定期限的官员，在一次采访中他说耐心立场“可以使我们安心度过接下来几年”，而且对美国经济来说是正确的方法。达拉斯联储主席罗伯特·开普兰则更谨慎一些，在奥斯汀举行的一次活动中，他表示目前的美联储最起码在接下来的几个季度都会保持暂停加息。

耐心这一概念，已是美联储政策制定者考虑许久的话题了。在1月公布的12月FOMC会议备忘录里，就有“耐心”之词以及“缓和的通胀压力”等言语。在鲍威尔12月的新闻发布会后市场掉头下转，而此次美联储改变，可以归因于当时“许多参与者”一直怒火中烧。

1月底召开FOMC会议以前已经出现了逆转的信息。在1月4日亚特兰大美国经济协会会议上，鲍威尔提到缓和的通胀压力和美联储向耐心的转变。一周后在华盛顿经济俱乐部会议前，他还再次宣称耐心。

堪萨斯城联储主席埃丝特·乔治一直以鹰派著称，此次甚至他也加入了支持“耐心”的呼吁声中：“我担心过去政策的实施效果尚未完全展现，在我们制定政策时应该耐心一些”。芝加哥联储主席查尔斯·伊万斯，一位在2018年听起来有些鹰派的鸽派人士，也回到了耐心阵营：“我们刚好可以暂停一下...，我不担心通货膨胀会失去控制。”

布拉德，乔治和伊万斯今年在FOMC会议均轮到投票权，因此看起来此共识仍会得到保持。

理查德·克拉里达是新任的美联储副主席和哥伦比亚大学前经济学家，被视为评判美联储情绪改变的风向标。在1月上半月，他一直在谈论缓和的通胀压力和耐心的重要性。克拉里达表示“我们需要使用耐心来评估自己的政策立场，这样才能达到并维持我们的双重目标”。“新年开始以来，我们已经非常接近既定目标，是我们长期以来最近的一次。在这种情况下，我认为耐心是我们今天有能力承担的一个优点”。

克拉里达，作为美联储管理委员会的成员，具有FOMC的永久表决权。在华盛顿强大职员的支持下，管理委员会一般在美联储的政策制定中占优势地位。

纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯在新泽西召开的银行家论坛上发表言论，当他强调“审慎、耐心和良好的判断”时，FOMC仿佛回声壁般重复他的观点。威廉姆斯曾任旧金山联储主席和研究局局长，也是FOMC的职权副主席且具有永久投票权。他强调回归“用数据说话”，强调数据比任何时候都重要。

威廉姆斯表示“如果增长持续高于稳定的水平，在某个点上提高利率是正当之举。但是，如果增长未达到预期，那么我会因此而调整我的政策观点。”

投资者的期望丝毫不亚于此。CME集团的美联储观察项目声称，在FOMC会议后，联邦基金期货上涨，由此可以预测未来12个月内有三分之一的概率美联储会降低利率。但是，美联储不会急于这样做。

英文原文如下：

Powell pivots to patience

Policy-makers parrot new philosophy at every opportunity

Darrell Delamaide

  7 Feb 2019

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell wanted to make sure everyone understood that the Fed has changed its stance and that patience is the new byword. Not gradual rises in interest rates, not balanced risks, but patience.

The consensus statement following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on January 30 included the word 'patient' with regard to any future 'adjustments' in monetary policy, given 'muted inflation pressures'. In his opening remarks at the following press conference, the chair used a variation of 'patient' eight times.

Investors understood – interest rates are on hold, so stocks and bonds both gained. The journalists, however, wanted to chide Powell for his reversal after his remarks at the December press conference had come across as so hawkish.

'Does patient have some sort of time frame?' they asked. Will the Fed be patient 'if there are modest, if transient, overshoots to the inflation target by core inflation?' Will it require both an improved economy and an upsurge of inflation 'for [the Fed] to change this patient stance?'

Powell echoed the word patience in his answers so that the concept floated through the press conference as a kind of leitmotif. Patience, patience, patience, patience.

St. Louis Fed Chief James Bullard was the first willing to put a time frame on patience, saying in an interview the stance 'set us up for a very good couple of years', and that it is the right approach for the US economy. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan was more cautious, saying after an event in Austin the Fed's pause would last at least the first couple of quarters.

Patience has been on Fed policy-makers' minds for some time. The minutes of the December FOMC meeting, released in January, already contained the word 'patient' and 'muted inflation pressures' that crept into the January statement. They were attributed to 'many participants', who may have been chafing in the aftermath of Powell's December press conference, which preceded a market downturn.

The reversal in message began long before the FOMC meeting at the end of January. On 4 January, Powell mentioned muted inflation and a patient Fed in his remarks at the American Economic Association meeting in Atlanta. A week later, he was proclaiming patience again, this time before the Economic Club of Washington.

Even avowed hawk Esther George, head of the Kansas City Fed, joined the chorus: 'I am mindful that the effects of past policy actions have not yet fully played out, calling for patience in considering our policy actions.' Chicago Fed Chief Charles Evans, a former dove who often sounded hawkish in 2018, is back to being patient as well: 'We're just at a good point for sort of pausing… I'm not worried about inflation getting out of hand.'

Bullard, George and Evans all rotated into voting positions on the FOMC this year, so the consensus seems assured going forward.

Richard Clarida, the new Fed vice-chair and former Columbia University economist, is proving to be a reliable indicator for how sentiment is changing at the Fed. In the first half of January, he was talking about muted inflation and being patient. 'I believe we can afford to be patient about assessing how to adjust our policy stance to achieve and sustain our dual-mandate objectives,' he said. 'We begin the year as close to our assigned objectives as we have in a very long time. In these circumstances, I believe patience is a virtue and is one we can today afford.'

Clarida, as a member of the board of governors, is a permanent voting member on the FOMC. Backed by its large Washington staff, the board tends to dominate policy-making at the Fed.

When New York Fed Chief John Williams urged 'prudence, patience, and good judgement' at a bankers forum in New Jersey, the FOMC began to resemble an echo chamber. The former research director and president of the San Francisco Fed, who is ex officio vice-chair of the FOMC in his current position and a permanent voting member, urged a return to 'data dependence', calling it more relevant than ever.

'If growth continues to come in well above sustainable levels, somewhat higher interest rates may well be called for at some point,' Williams said. 'However, if conditions turn out to be less robust, then I will adjust my policy views accordingly.'

Investors are expecting no less. The CME Group's Fed Watch programme said the jump in fed funds futures following the FOMC meeting suggested a one-in-three chance the Fed would lower rates over the next 12 months. But they won't be in a hurry to do that.

内容整理 罗梦宇

图文编辑 罗梦宇

审校  田雯

监制  朱霜霜

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