海外之声 | 实现包容性全球化的政策组合（中英双语）

观点速递

本文作者是韩国对外经济政策研究院（KIEP）贸易协定组副研究员Nahm Sihoon。原文首先刊于《KIEP Opinions》。

作者强调了“包容性”全球化的重要性。即使贸易自由化政策带来的收益高于损失，在全球化过程中为了减少阻力，使经济得以持续增长，必须制定和实施重新分配贸易收益、减少不平等和最小化贸易调整成本的政策。其中比较重要的是要解决劳动力流动性问题。

中文译文如下：

实现包容性全球化的政策组合

Nahm Sihoon

翻译：林莉

审校：陆可凡

2018年4月18日

去年，美国贸易政策在唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）担任总统后改变了方向。新政策旨在打破不公平的贸易壁垒，并关注双边谈判。美国开始讨论修订贸易协定，并明确表示，在某些情况下，美国不会遵守世贸组织的决定。这一政策变化源于美国选民对全球化的不满。其他总统候选人，前国务卿希拉里·克林顿（Hillary Clinton）和伯尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders），也承诺会或多或少地以贸易保护主义为基础改变贸易政策。全球越来越多的国家开始抵制全球化。其中一些国家已经经历了政权更替和贸易政策变化，其他没有经历政权更替的国家也面临反全球化运动的压力。

长期以来，贸易自由化被大多数经济学家尊为最佳政策。尽管全球化会导致某些人遭受重大损失，但整体而言，总收益大于损失，因此贸易开放被视为有利于国家整体经济的良好政策。然而，因国际贸易造成的不平等加剧和对遭受损失者的重新分配不足，激起了民众的不满情绪，并升级了政治压力。这一现象说明了“包容性”全球化的重要性。即使贸易自由化政策带来的收益高于损失，在全球化进程中，为了减少阻力，使经济增长得以持续，必须制定和实施重新分配贸易收益、减少不平等和最小化贸易调整成本的政策。

最近的研究文章正试图正确衡量贸易（特别是与中国的贸易）损失，结果发现，这种贸易使失业增加。其他文章也阐明了全球化与遭受损失者之间的其他联系。国内企业因与国外商品竞争而失去其国内市场份额。竞争虽然使研发投入增加、提高了生产力，但当技术工人需求增加时，工资不平等现象也更加突出。采用先进技术的公司更严格地筛选员工，以达到全球标准，这导致不同公司员工之间也存在不平等现象。

要使全球化具有包容性，实施广泛的政策组合至关重要。全球化对经济的影响与技术发展对经济的影响相似。他们使整体经济更好，但也存在赢家和输家。长期的结构转型出现，技术较差的工人更容易受到这种影响。结果，反对全球化政策的政治压力更加强烈。因此，为弥补应对全球化所带来的损失的劳动政策必须伴随着其他政策。最大的相关成本就是失业，而提高劳动力流动性对解决失业问题至关重要。仅仅靠贸易相关政策无法实现这种劳动力流动性。

积极劳动力市场计划（ALMPs）的目的是帮助失业员工在同一行业或其他行业找到新工作。这项计划包括早期的频繁介入、用以填补技术缺口的技能培训项目、来自有用人需求的私营企业的帮助、求职信息搜索帮助等等。同时，被动政策为失业者提供保护，并支持他们接受就业培训，或寻找新的就业机会。这和积极劳动力市场计划互为补充。此外，就业保护或最低工资法也应被当作一项重要的社会保障措施，以针对为了适应全球化而付出的成本。

提高地区间劳动力流动性对于缓解冲击也很重要，对制造业来说尤为如此。每个工厂都与其所依托的城市密切相连。若工厂因全球化所带来的变化而关闭，这会对该工厂所依托的城市带来巨大冲击。这个问题有两种解决办法：将劳动力移出该城市，或在该城市新增就业机会。前者可以通过提供更多的住房和交通基础设施来实现。后者意味着要提供能够吸引私营企业的政策好处或转移公共机构以创造就业机会。这类政策涉及劳动力市场、城市规划和区域间的冲突控制。这些政策可能看起来与贸易和全球化不甚相关，但对于实现包容性全球化却越来越重要。

传统贸易相关政策也有帮助。许多国家实行贸易专门支持计划以帮助因贸易而失业的工人。美国贸易调整援助计划（TAA, Trade Adjustment Assistance）和欧盟全球化调整基金（EGAF, European Globalization Adjustment Fund）就是人们熟知的例子。这些失业工人需要大量职业培训，因其失业是结构转型的结果，这与技术发展的结果相类似。有针对性的计划理论上可以更有效地降低调整成本，但对这些计划的实证评估却有不同的结果。贸易的影响可以是直接或间接的，所以很难辨别人们到底是更多地因贸易而失业还是因那些有针对性的计划而受益。因此，贸易专门支持计划必须伴随上述一般劳动力市场政策，以提高其效力。

精心设计的产业政策可以减少企业间的不平等并减轻结构转型带来的直接冲击。国际贸易对大型企业有积极影响，但对小公司有负面影响。这加剧了公司之间的不平等。此外，大公司创造新的就业机会速度缓慢。这种贸易的负面影响可以通过中小企业的出口得到弥补。促进小企业的出口能更平等地分配全球化的收益，并在制造业内创造更多稳定的工作岗位。这两种结果都有助于促进包容性全球化。

最后，应该为更深入的研究和其他政策决策准备更多准确和详细的数据。最近许多关于不平等的文章都采用了税务当局的新数据。这些新数据与以前的家庭调查数据有很大不同，特别是更有利于分析前1%的贸易。税务当局的数据应该更加开放，向研究人员匿名提供，家庭调查数据和行业信息也应更加详细地公开。此外，每个公司或工厂的详细数据也会有助于决策制定。

英文原文如下：

Policy Combinations for Inclusive Globalization

Nahm Sihoon

  18 April 2018

Last year U.S. trade policy changed direction after Mr. Donald Trump took presidential office. The new policy aimed at breaking down unfair trade barriers and focusing on bilateral negotiation. The U.S. started talks for revision of trade agreements and made it clear that it would not follow WTO decisions in certain cases. This policy change is based on U.S. voters' discontent regarding globalization. The other presidential candidates, former Secretary Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, also promised more or less changes in trade policy based on protectionism. Resistance against globalization has become prevalent in an increasing number of countries. Some of these have undergone political regime change and trade policy change, and other countries without regime change have also come under the pressure of anti-globalization movements.

For a long time, freer trade was respected as the best policy among the majority of economists. Globalization leads to substantial losses for certain people, but the overall gains outweigh this loss and thus opening trade was perceived as a good policy for the domestic economy as a whole. However, the increase in inequality due to international trade andinsufficient redistribution for losers has escalated discontent and political pressure. This phenomenon illustrates the importance of "inclusive" globalization. Even if trade liberalization policy brings more gain than loss, policies for redistributing trade gains, reducing inequality, and minimizing trade adjustment costs must accompany the globalization process to alleviate resistance and make economic growth sustainable.

Recent papers have worked to correctly measure the loss from trade (especially in the case of trade with China), and found an increase in unemployment caused by such trade. Other papers pointed to other routes that connect globalization and its losers. Domestic firms lose their portion of the domestic market due to competition with foreign goods. Competition leads to more R&D investment and increase in productivity but it also increases wage inequality when the demand for skilled workers increases. Firms with advanced technology screen their workers more stringently to meet the global standard and this results in inequality between workers in different firms.

To make globalization inclusive, it is critical to implement a wide combination of policies. The effect of globalization on the economy is similar to the effect that technology development has on the economy. They make the overall economy better, but there are winners and losers. Long-lasting structural transformation occurs and less skilled workers are more vulnerable to this. As a result, the political pressure against globalization policies increases. There-fore, labor policy that compensates for the cost of coping with globalization must be accompanied with other policies. The biggest associated cost is unemployment, and enhancing labor mobility is crucial to resolve this problem. Such job mobility cannot be achieved only with trade-related policies.

Active labor market programs (ALMPs) are targeted to displaced workers and help them find new jobs easily in the same or other industries. ALMPs include early and frequent engagement, training program to fill the skills gap, help from private firms to meet their job needs, job search assistance, and so on. Passive policies complement ALMPs through bringing protection to the unemployed and support for their job training or job search. Employment protection or minimum wage legislation also should be considered as critical social protection against the costs of adapting to globalization.

Enhancing labor mobility between regions is also important to relieve shocks, especially for the manufacturing industry. Each plant is deeply connected to the city where it based on. When a plant is closed due to changes created by globalization, the shock caused to thehost city is massive. There are two solutions for this problem: moving laborers out of the city, or creating new jobs in the city. The former can be achieved through the supply of more housing and transportation infrastructure. The latter refers to offering benefits to attract private firms or moving public institutions to create jobs. This category of policies include the labor market, urban planning, and conflict control between regions. These may seem remotely separated from trade and globalization, but become more and more important to make globalization inclusive.

Conventional trade-related policy is also helpful. Many countries have trade-specific support programs targeted to workers displaced by trade. The U.S.TAA (Trade Adjustment Assistance) and EGAF (European Globalization Adjustment Fund) are well-known examples. These workers need more job training because their unemployment is the result of structural transformation, as in the case of technology development. Targeted programs can be more effective to relieve adjustment costs in theory, but empirical evaluations of these programs have yielded mixed results. The effect of trade can be direct or indirect, making it difficult to identify those who are laid off due to trade and those who benefit from targeted programs. Therefore, trade-specific support programs must be accompanied with the general labor market policies above to enhance their effectiveness.

A well-designed industrial policy reduces inequality between firms and alleviates the direct shock resulting from structural transformation. International trade has a positive effect on big businesses but a negative effect on small firms. This process deepens inequality between firms. Moreover, big firms are slow to create new jobs. This negative effect of trade can be compensated for through export from middle-sized or small businesses. Boosting exports of small businesses distributes the gains of globalization more equally and creates more stable jobs within the manufacturing industry. Both results are effective toward the promotion of inclusive globalization.

Finally, more correct and detailed data should be prepared for deeper research and other policymaking decisions. Many recent papers about inequality begin with new data from tax authorities. These are much different with previous household survey data and particularly better for analysis of the top 1 percentile. This tax authority data should be offered on a more open basis with anonymity to researchers, and household survey data should be provided in more in detail together with industry information. In addition, more detailed data on each firm or plant would also be helpful.

内容整理 罗梦宇

图文编辑 罗梦宇

审校  田雯

监制  商倩

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