独家•智库 | 布勒哲尔：中国2050年领导世界科技 触手可及【双语】

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本期智库文章选自国际知名经济政策智库比利时布勒哲尔国际经济研究所（查看该网站文章可点击文章左下角“阅读原文”）。

China is the world’s new science and technology powerhouse

中国成为世界新型科技强国

Scientific knowledge and its use in technology and economic and societal development has become increasingly global and multipolar. While Europe and the U.S. have traditionally led in scientific development, China in particular has emerged as a new science and technology (S&T) powerhouse.

科学知识及其在技术、经济和社会发展中的应用，已经变得日益全球化和多极化。虽然欧洲和美国一直在科学发展中遥遥领先，但中国作为科技强国已经崭露头角。

A key indicator of the rise of China in S&T is its spending on research and development (R&D). Chinese R&D investment has grown remarkably over the past two decades, with the rate of growth greatly exceeding that of the U.S. and the EU.

中国科技崛起的一个关键指标，是其在研发上的经费投入。在过去20年中，中国的研发投入显著增长，远超美国和欧盟的增速。

China is now the second-largest performer in terms of R&D spending, on a country basis, and accounts for 20 percent of total world R&D expenditure. It is also increasingly prominent in industries that intensively use scientific and technological knowledge.

目前，中国在研发支出方面排名世界第二，占全球研发总支出的20%。而且，其在科技相关领域也表现得越来越突出。

图表：以十亿美元为单位的研发支出情况（按当前的购买力平价标准核算）

来源：布勒哲尔智库，根据全美科学基金2016年数据

While the U.S. has led the world in the production of scientific knowledge for decades, in terms of both quantity and quality, and the EU as a bloc (still including the UK) has outperformed the U.S. in numbers of scientific publications since 1994, China now publishes more than any other country apart from the U.S. China’s scientific priorities are shown by a particularly big increase in its share of published papers in the fields of computer sciences and engineering. While China—for now—is making modest inroads into the top-quality segment of publications, it is already on par with Japan.

几十年来，美国在科学知识的产出数量和质量方面，一直处于世界领先地位。欧盟（包括英国）作为一个联盟，自1994 年以来，在科学出版物方面超过了美国，而现在，中国在科学出版物方面，已经超过了除美国以外的其他国家。中国在计算机科学工程领域的论文发表量的巨幅增长，体现了中国在科学方面的领先地位。尽管中国当前在优质出版物方面做的努力有限，但已经与日本平分秋色了。

This steep improvement in S&T performance has been underpinned by significant strides in science and engineering education. China is now the world’s number one producer of undergraduates with science and engineering degrees, delivering almost one quarter of first university degrees in science and engineering globally. Since 2007, the country has awarded more Ph.D. degrees in natural sciences and engineering than any other country globally.

中国在科技方面的巨大发展，已经通过其在科学工程教育方面的重大进展而打下了基础。当前，中国是世界上科学和工程领域本科产出量最大的国家，输送了几乎占全球科学和工程领域1/4的大学第一学位本科生。自2007年以来，中国在自然科学和工程方面授予的博士学位也比全球任何其他国家都多。

China’s rise in science and technology is not an accident. Successive Chinese leaderships have seen S&T as integral to economic growth and have consequently taken steps to develop the country’s S&T-related infrastructure.

中国的科技崛起并非偶然。中国历届领导人都认为科技是经济增长不可或缺的部分，并采取了相应措施来发展中国的科技相关基础设施。

Technology development and innovation figure prominently in the current thirteenth five-year plan (2016-20). China’s National Medium- and Long-Term Program for Science and Technology Development (MLP), introduced in 2006, is an ambitious plan to transform the Chinese economy into a major center of innovation by the year 2020 and to make it the global leader in science and innovation by 2050. One of the goals of the MLP is to boost R&D expenditure to 2.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—a target that has largely already been reached.

在当前的“十三五”计划中，技术发展和创新占据着重要地位。2006 年颁布的《中国国家中长期科学和技术发展规划纲要》中提到一个雄心勃勃的计划，到2020年，要将创新作为中国经济发展的重心，到2050年，中国要发展成为世界领先的科技强国。纲要的一大目标是将研发支出提高到国内生产总值的 2.5%——这一目标已基本实现。

Global Implications

全球性影响

The benefits from a global science world with China as an extra strong pole will accrue to many, but some will benefit more than others. In particular, the EU and the U.S. will likely respond in different ways to the rise of China as an S&T powerhouse.

中国成为世界科学的一支突起力量，将会使多方倍加受益，但有些利益方会比他方受益更大。特别是欧盟和美国，对中国崛起为科技强国的态度可能会有所不同。

The U.S. science system has traditionally benefited from foreigners. The dominant position of the U.S. in science is based on its openness to the brightest talent of all nationalities, and this top position keeps attracting the best talents from around the world, who contribute to U.S. science, technology and economic success. Foreign talent is thus vital for U.S. science and engineering capacity. This is why the U.S. could feel threatened about the fact that the power of its S&T machine will diminish if the pool of foreign talent entering the U.S. dries up. There is no clear evidence so far, however, to justify this fear.

美国科学体系一直以来都受益于外国人。美国之所以在科学界取得主导地位，正是缘于对各个国家的顶尖人才敞开怀抱，而这种主导地位也吸引着全世界最优秀的人才汇聚美国，对美国的科学、技术和经济繁荣做出了巨大贡献。因此，外国人才对美国的科学和工程研究能力发挥着至关重要的作用。也因此，美国可能会担心有朝一日流入美国的外国人才库枯竭，其科研能力就会随之削弱。尽管目前还没有确凿的证据坐实美国的这种担忧。

For the moment, the rise of China’s own capacity to produce science and engineering degrees does not seem to disconnect the U.S. from the pool of potential Chinese candidates to recruit from.This open model, at least for the moment, continues to bear fruit for the U.S., even if the most important source country, China, is rapidly developing its own scientific capability.

目前，中国对科学和工程学位的增设似乎对中国潜在的人才库流入美国并没有造成太大影响。至少目前来说，这种开放模式让美国继续受益，尽管中国作为为美国输送人才最多国家，正在快速发展自主科研能力。

China’s growth model for science, although aspiring to be indigenous, still involves sending out its increasingly better locally trained scholars to the best institutes in the world and reaping the benefits upon their return in later stages of their careers when they have fully developed their capabilities. All this leaves a China-U.S. connection that is virtuous, mutually beneficial for both science systems, and so far robust.

虽然中国想实行自主的科学发展模式，却仍然避免不了会将本土培养的越来越优秀的学者派到世界各地的顶尖研究所学习和工作。当他们充分开发出自己的潜能，后期回到中国工作时，中国也会因此受益。这对于中美双方的科学体系来说是互惠互利的，目前势头仍然稳健。

Nevertheless, concerns are mounting in the U.S. about the sustainability of its capacity for innovation and international competitiveness, driven by the more recent trend to move to a more restrictive immigration policy. This comes in addition to a reluctance to allocate public funding to support the building of S&T infrastructure.

尽管如此，受到最近越来越严格的移民政策影响，美国人越来越关心其创新力和国际竞争力能持续多久。同时，美国在分配公共支出、支持科技基础设施建设方面也表现得勉为其难。

The EU science pole is largely holding its own, based on the intensifying process of intra-EU integration. However, this process of integration is bumpy, and with the Brexit vote outcome, it is facing a major challenge. Furthermore, the EU S&T pole does not have the same deep openness to foreign scientific talent from China that the U.S. has, resulting in the absence of similarly sized flows of students and researchers.

随着欧盟内部一体化进程的加速，欧盟的科学力量在很大程度上都依赖于自己。然而，一体化的过程是曲折的，随着英国脱欧投票结果的出炉，欧盟也面临着一个巨大挑战。另外，欧盟的科技组织不像美国那样，愿意敞开胸怀接纳中国的科学人才，从而导致了相当规模的学生以及研究人员的缺失。

The EU must show a stronger commitment to joining the science globalization train and subsequently ensure that European economies will benefit from it. An integrated European area for science and technology, characterized by scientific and technological excellence, is a necessary condition for this. Excellence will ensure that talented people in European research institutes and firms will be better able to absorb the new knowledge generated abroad and will be more attractive hubs for the best talent from abroad and for partners for international S&T cooperation and networks. But while reinforcing the European pole by deeper integration, it should also be more open externally.

欧盟必须更加坚定地搭上科技全球化这趟列车，并且确保今后欧洲的经济能从中受益。为了实现这一点，欧洲地区科技一体化且大力发展科技是必不可少的。卓越的科技能力能保证欧洲研究机构和企业的优秀人才更好地吸收到国外的新知识，同时对于国外顶尖人才、国际科技和网络合作伙伴来说，也更具吸引力。但是，欧洲国家一体化的深入和国力的增强也需要扩大对外开放。

The intra-EU mobility agenda should avoid navel gazing and be seen more as a lever for global integration. European S&T policymakers should promote and remove barriers for scientific collaboration both intra-EU and with countries outside the bloc. It should do more to attract the best foreign talent, wherever it is located in the world.

欧盟内部的行动议程要避免纸上谈兵，要更大程度地将其视作全球一体化的杠杆。欧洲科技政策的制定者应该推进和消除欧盟内部以及外部国家的科学合作障碍，应该采取更多行动来吸引世界各地的国外人才。

Mutual Benefit

互惠互利

China’s ambition to be a global leader in science and innovation by 2050 seems well within reach. The U.S. remains the favored destination for Chinese students, which has led to the creation of U.S.-China science and technology networks and connections that are mutually beneficial, enabling China to catch up and helping the U.S. to keep its position at the science frontier. The EU has much less-developed scientific connections to China than the U.S. The EU should take steps to engage more with China if it is not to miss out in the future multipolar science and technology world.

到2050年，中国成为全球科技创新领域领导者的雄心目标似乎触手可及。美国依然受到中国学生的青睐，这导致了中美科技可以互惠互利——中国在追赶的同时，帮助美国在科学前沿上保持自己的地位。相较于美国，欧盟与中国的科技联络则相对不足，如果欧盟想在未来多极化的科技世界中占有一席之地，就应该采取行动，与中国多接触。

Reinhilde Veugelers

鲁汶大学管理、战略和创新（Department of Management, Strategy and Innovation）全职教授。自2009年起，她便担任布勒哲尔的高级研究员。同时，她还是欧洲经济政策研究中心的研究员，以及比利时佛兰德科学皇家学院的成员。

英文来源：比利时布勒哲尔（Bruegel）国际经济研究所官网

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