特朗普连任胜算还剩多少？美大选民调：拜登领先特朗普13个百分点

据路透社/益普索公布的最新民调，美国民主党总统候选人拜登的支持度，领先现任总统特朗普多达13个百分点。这是今年以来他在同一份民调中的最大领先幅度，也恰恰反映出，因新冠疫情和近期警察暴力执法事件引发的全美抗议，美国民众对特朗普日益加深的不满情绪。

这份民调在网上进行，调查了4426名美国成年人，其中包括2047位民主党人及1593位共和党人，民调信赖区间为正负2个百分点。

这份6月10日至6月16日进行的民调显示，48%的登记选民表示，他们会在今年11月总统大选中支持拜登，35%的选民则说，会支持特朗普。 

这是自民主党今年开始党内总统候选人提名竞争以来，拜登优势最大的一次。美国有线电视新闻网本月稍早所做的类似民调显示，拜登在登记选民中的支持率领先特朗普14个百分点。

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has opened up a 13-point lead over President Donald Trump – the widest margin this year – according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll as Americans grow more critical of Trump over the coronavirus pandemic and protests against police brutality.

In the June 10-16 poll, 48 percent of registered voters said they would back Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, in the November 3 election, while 35 percent said they would support Trump.

Biden's advantage is the biggest recorded by the Reuters/Ipsos poll since Democrats began their state nominating contests this year to pick their party's nominee to challenge Trump in November. A similar CNN poll from earlier this month showed Biden with a 14-point lead over Trump among registered voters.

民调还显示，只有38%的美国成年人满意特朗普的施政表现，而57%表示不满意，这是自去年11月美国国会对他进行弹劾调查以来，特朗普获得的最低支持率。

对特朗普来说，一个明显的警告是，他的基本盘似乎也出现了动摇迹象。从3月至6月，共和党人对特朗普的净支持率下降了13个百分点。

新近民调支持率的变化与多重因素相关。一方面，新冠病毒大流行，以及随之而来的经济崩溃，让美国民众受到了双重伤害。另一方面，警察与非裔美国人之间发生的多次致命冲突，包括上个月的非裔美国人乔治·弗洛伊德遭明尼阿波里斯市警察暴力执法致死事件，也在全美范围内激发了民众愤怒与不满的情绪。

The Reuters/Ipsos poll also showed that 57 percent of U.S. adults disapproved of Trump's performance in office, while just 38 percent approved, marking Trump's lowest approval rating since November, when Congress was conducting its impeachment inquiry into the Republican president.

In a clear warning sign for Trump, his own support base appears to be eroding. Republicans' net approval of Trump is down 13 points from March to June, declining every month in that span.

The shift in opinion comes as Americans are whipsawed by the coronavirus pandemic, the ensuing economic collapse and the outpouring of anger and frustration following numerous deadly confrontations between police and African Americans, including the death last month of George Floyd while in Minneapolis police custody.

而早期对新冠肺炎疫情轻描淡写的特朗普，如今更是不顾健康专家就新冠病毒传播风险提出的警告，执意推动美国经济重启，甚至因此和试图控制疫情的各州州长打起了口水仗。

美国目前累计新冠肺炎确诊病例数已超过210万，死亡病例数超11.6万例——是全球累计确诊病例和死亡病例最多的国家。而已经重新开放的美国多州，包括佛罗里达、亚利桑那和得克萨斯等，疫情都出现了反弹。

总体来看，只有40%的美国人对特朗普的疫情应对方式表示认同，而55%的人表示不满，这是自3月初路透社/益普索开始追踪该问题以来，特朗普在这一问题上获得的最低净支持率。 

Trump, who dismissed the threat of the coronavirus early on, sparred with state governors as they tried to slow its spread and has pushed authorities to allow businesses to reopen despite warnings from health experts about increasing risks of transmission.

More than 116,000 people in the United States have died from the virus and more than 2.1 million people have been infected, by far the most in the world. Some states that have reopened such as Florida, Arizona and Texas are seeing a jump in cases.

Altogether, 55 percent of Americans said they disapproved of Trump's handling of the coronavirus, while 40 percent approved, which is the lowest net approval for the president on the subject since Reuters/Ipsos started tracking the question in early March.

在弗洛伊德之死引发全美抗议活动之后，特朗普的处理方式，也让他受到广泛批评。

民调显示，三分之二的受访者对抗议者表示同情和理解，而特朗普却公开威胁要出动军队予以镇压。本月早些时候，为了特朗普能去白宫附近的教堂拍照，华盛顿警方甚至提前暴力驱散和平抗议者为其“开道”。

由于疫情封锁措施导致美国企业纷纷关门，美国民众越来越聚焦于经济与就业，将其视为头等大事。 

在这一方面，特朗普相对拜登仍有一定优势。43%的登记选民表示，他们认为特朗普会比拜登更好地管理经济，38%的人认为拜登会更好。

The president also has been criticized for the way he has responded to the protests that were sparked by Floyd's killing.

While nearly two thirds of respondents sympathized with the protesters, according to the poll, Trump has openly flirted with deploying the military to "dominate" them. Earlier this month, police in Washington forcibly removed peaceful protesters so that Trump could pose for photographs in front of a church near the White House.

As businesses shuttered across the country because of coronavirus lockdowns, Americans have increasingly turned their focus to the economy and jobs as a top concern.

In that area, Trump still has the upper hand over Biden. Forty-three percent of registered voters said they thought Trump would be a better steward of the economy than Biden, while 38 percent said Biden would be better.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online, in English, throughout the United States. The poll gathered responses from 4,426 American adults, including 2,047 Democrats and 1,593 Republicans. The poll had a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

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