福利 | 专访阿代尔·特纳：我最担心中国个人信贷的快速增长
导 读
近日，英国金融服务管理局原主席阿代尔·特纳(Adair Turner)在接受中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）编辑部专访时，就全球经济增长前景、发达经济体货币政策正常化的溢出效应、中国的经济风险和金融监管改革等热点问题作出回应。
去年，全球主要经济体出现了同步复苏的现象，特纳认为，美国和中国的财政宽松政策是这一复苏最重要的推动因素。但他强调，长期停滞的威胁并未消除， 长远来看，私人债务过高仍然是一个主要问题。 特纳表示，发达经济体货币政策正常化非常有限，日本在短期内没有加息的可能性，欧洲央行可能会结束负利率，但欧元区到2020年利率仍会接近零。
在谈到中国的经济增长时，特纳说，中国过去十年的大幅信贷扩张不会最终导致危机，因为中国政府可以通过多种政策手段来管理高负债。但他比较担心中国个人信贷的快速增长，特别是抵押贷款债务。
2008年时，特纳曾临危受命出任英国金融服务管理局主席。他回忆危机后的英国金融监管改革时说，英国金融危机后的监管改革最重要的一点并非是把英国金融服务监管局拆成了FCA和PRA，而是宏观审慎管理机构——金融政策委员会（FPC）的成立。 特纳认为，中国的宏观审慎管理职能肯定应该放在人民银行，但也需要其他相关部门的共同投入。
以下为特纳专访实录，文末依然有福利，别错过哦~
阿代尔·特纳
Q：去年以来，全球主要经济体步入罕见的同步复苏周期。您对全球经济增长前景有何预期？全球经济复苏面临哪些潜在风险？
A：在2008年金融危机之后的许多年里，全球经济增长持续萎靡，引发了人们对结构性需求不足导致的长期停滞的担心。去年出现了同步复苏的现象，美国和中国的财政宽松政策是这一复苏最重要的推动因素。但长期停滞的威胁并未消除，债务水平仍然处于危险的高位。在大多数发达经济体中，通货膨胀仍低于目标水平；而世界经济似乎只能在实际利率非常低的情况下平衡储蓄和投资。因此，我们仍然很容易受到经济放缓的影响，但我相信中美两国将继续保持刺激性政策，所以近几年不太会出现经济放缓。从长远来看，私人债务过高仍然是一个主要问题。 在欧洲，从短期到中期来看，意大利面临的风险最大。
After many years following the 2008 financial crisis in which global growth continually disappointed, provoking fears that we faced a “secular stagnation” of structurally inadequate demand, the last year has seen a synchronised recovery. The most important drivers of this recovery were very significant fiscal relaxation in the US and also in China. But the factors which appeared to threaten a secular stagnation are still present: debt levels remain dangerously elevated: inflation continues to track below target in most developed economies: and of the world economy only seems able to balance savings and investments at very low real interest rates. We therefore remain vulnerable to a slowdown, but I do not anticipate one in the next few years since I believe that Chinese and US policy will continue to be stimulative. In the long term, excessive private debt remains a major problem. In Europe in the short to medium term, Italy is the biggest risk.
Q：如何看待发达经济体货币政策正常化的溢出效应？
A：发达经济体货币政策正常化仍然非常有限。我们的确看到美国利率在逐渐上升，到2020年可能达到3.5％左右。但我认为日本在短期内没有加息的可能性，欧洲央行可能会结束负利率，但欧元区到2020年利率仍会接近零。如果到2020年英国利率超过1.5％，我会感到震惊，我预测应该是比1.5%低的多。所以我们仍处在一个利率极低的世界。尽管如此，美元加息也将带来风险，尤其是对美元债务大幅增加的新兴国家来说，比如土耳其看起来就很脆弱。
The normalisation of advanced economy monetary policy is still only very limited. Yes we are seeing a gradual rise in US interest rates, which could reach 3.5% or so by 2020. But I think there is no prospect of rate rises in Japan any time soon: the ECB may put an end to negative rates, but Eurozone interest rates will still be very close to zero in 2020. And I would be surprised if UK interest rates are over 1.5% by 2020, and suspect they may be still significantly lower. So this is still a world of incredibly low interest rates. Nevertheless dollar interest rate increases will create risks, particularly in emerging countries which have seen big increases in dollar-denominated debt. Turkey in particular looks vulnerable.
Q：中国经济面临哪些主要风险？如何看待中国由政府主导的主动去杠杆进程？
A：中国是社会主义市场经济国家，所以中国政府可以通过多种政策手段来管理高负债水平，而这在纯粹由市场驱动的经济体是无法实现的。因此，我认为中国过去10年的大幅信贷扩张不会最终导致危机。当局可以取缔影子银行活动，中国政府也确实正在这样做。转向直接财政刺激已经减少了对通过银行信贷刺激需求增长的依赖，而后者是很危险的。地方政府债务已经更加规范化,鼓励股票发行的举措至少会对企业杠杆率产生一定影响。如果有必要的话，坏帐可以转移到资产管理公司，就像21世纪初期的时候，政府和中央银行都给予了支持。考虑到有这么多工具可以使用，而且中国已经使用了其中一些，我认为中国将能够逐渐把杠杆率降低到可控水平。
我比较担心的一个领域是中国个人信贷的快速增长，特别是抵押贷款债务。虽然直到现在，中国的抵押贷款债务与西方普遍水平相比，看起来仍然很低，但它一直以来增长迅速，加上中国经济对房地产投资的极大偏见，这可能会产生问题。
I think the Chinese government, operating within a hybrid socialist market economy, has available multiple policy levers to manage high debt levels, which are not available in purely market-driven systems. I therefore do not anticipate that the great Chinese credit expansion of the last 10 years will end in any form of crisis. The authorities can clampdown on shadow banking activities and are doing so. The shift to direct fiscal stimulus has reduced dangerous reliance on bank credit creation as the driver of demand growth. Local government debt has been moved on to a more formal basis: and measures to encourage equity issue have at least had some impact on corporate leverage. If necessary, bad debts could be shifted to asset management companies, as they were in the early 2000s, with government and central bank support. Given these tools, some of which are already being used, I anticipate the China will be able slowly to get leverage under control. The one area which concerns me is the still rapid growth of personal credit, and in particular mortgage debt. Till recently this looked low compared with typical Western levels, but it has grown rapidly, and together with the extraordinary bias of Chinese economy towards real estate investment, this could create problems.
Q：作为金融危机后英国金融监管体系改革的亲历者和设计师，您如何看待这一变革的意义？目标导向监管理念和双峰监管模式逐步成为金融监管的主流，中国也在推动金融监管框架的变革，对此您有何建议？
A：英国2013年推出了双峰监管模式(英国金融市场行为监管局FCA和审慎监管局PRA)，我认为这一模式是合理的，并且自从其推出以来已经有了很好的发展。但是我始终认为，英国金融危机后的监管改革最重要的一点并非是把英国金融服务监管局拆成了FCA和PRA，而是宏观审慎管理机构——金融政策委员会（FPC）的成立。 FPC负责对整个金融体系所面临的风险进行监督和应对，如果FPC在2008年危机之前已经成立，那时我们肯定能够更好地避免灾难。 我认为，中国也应该建立类似职能单位，这是明智之举，该职能肯定应该放在人民银行，但需要其他相关部门的共同投入。
I believe that the U.K.'s new system of Twin Peaks financial regulation (the PRA and the FCA) makes sense and has bedded down well since its introduction in 2013. But I have always believed that the most important element of the U.K.'s post-crisis regulatory reform was not the separation of the FSA into PRA and FCA , but the creation of the Financial Policy Committee as the macro prudential authority. The FPC is responsible for monitoring and responding to risks developing across the whole of the financial system, and if it had been in place before the 2008 crisis we would have been better equipped to avoid disaster. I think that in China it would be wise to introduce a similar function, which should certainly reside within this PBOC, but with appropriate input from all other relevant organisations.
Q：如果英国脱离欧盟关税同盟并退出单一市场，会对英国经济带来哪些影响，哪些产业受影响最大？对英美FTA和英国参与其他国际经贸合作是否有推动作用？
A：尽管我个人感到很遗憾，但英国肯定要离开欧盟，但我们可以决定留在欧洲关税联盟，这肯定是最好的策略。离开关税联盟将破坏制造业，而且不会带来任何好处。有人认为欧洲等地区性贸易一体化的优势可以通过洲际自由贸易区安排抵消，例如同美国的安排，这种想法完全站不住脚，有这种想法的人不了解当今区域性供应链一体化背景下的贸易是如何运作的。
Although I personally regret it, Britain will certainly leave the European Union, but we could decide to stay in the European customs union, and that would certainly be the best policy. Leaving the customs union will disrupt manufacturing trade and deliver no benefit whatsoever. The idea that the advantages of deep trade integration within a region such as Europe, can be offset by intercontinental free-trade area arrangements, for instance with the US, is a delusion of people who do not understand how trading works in the modern world of integrated regional supply chains.
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