胡晓炼：管住全球债务这只“灰犀牛”（中英双语）
导 读
本文为中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）学术顾问、中国进出口银行董事长胡晓炼在3月22日举行的CF40国际交流晚餐会“全球经济展望与金融风险挑战”上所作的主题交流，主要观点如下：
1、当前，全球经济最大的“灰犀牛”当属债务问题。日益严重的全球债务问题，已形成经济增长的沉重包袱和巨大的风险振动源。
2、在发达国家，引爆债务风险的最大不确定性已渐明晰。不发达国家要想实现债务可持续，仍有相当长的一段路要走。
3、将全球债务这只“灰犀牛”关在笼子里，有几个基本因素至关重要：一是全球经济能否维持适当的增长；二是全球贸易能否继续作为世界经济增长的重要引擎；三是利率水平是否会保持基本平稳；四是债务背后的质量。
4、债务问题的有序解决必须避免两种极端，既不能用衰退型去杠杆的方式过快处理债务，也不能通过高通胀稀释债务。
5、从根本上，全球债务问题需要加强国际协调，从世界经济发展的角度解决。着眼于全球范围内的制度变革、要素自由流动和效率提升，增强世界经济长期发展动能，以经济发展提升债务的可持续性。
胡晓炼
当前，全球经济最大的“灰犀牛”当属债务问题。
金融危机后，在极度宽松的货币环境下，全球债务总量快速累积。根据国际清算银行（BIS）3月初更新的数据，其统计的国家和地区非金融部门债务总量，2018年三季度已达到178万亿美元，较2008年末的107万亿美元显著上升。全球债务与GDP之比，从2008年末的201.8%上升至2018年三季度的231.2%。
分国家和地区看，发达经济体整体杠杆率由2008年末的239.4%上升至2018年三季度的264.1%，特别是政府债务与GDP之比从63.6%增至80.7%，发达经济体超过三分之二的新增债务来自政府部门，其债务问题的主要症结在于政府债务累积。
BIS统计的新兴市场经济体，其非金融部门杠杆率由2008年末的107.2%上升到2018年三季度的179.2%，提高了72个百分点，债务上升速度较快。总体而言，新兴市场的问题主要是企业债务增长过快，企业杠杆率已由56.1%升至94.6%，绝对值与发达经济体相当。
与此同时，一些不发达国家的债务积累速度同样较快。在全球低利率环境下，借入大量外债，使得外债与GDP之比出现明显上升。世界银行数据显示，2017年低收入国家外债总额已达1568亿美元，升至有记录以来最高，外债与GDP之比为27.2%。
日益严重的全球债务问题，已形成经济增长的沉重包袱和巨大的风险振动源。
发达国家的债务，短期通过不断举债尚可维持，加之利率上行的步伐或已中止，引爆债务风险的最大不确定性已渐明晰。
从新兴市场看，人口老龄化问题正逐渐向新兴市场蔓延，东亚国家的储蓄率水平出现了明显的下行趋势，降低债务水平的同时出现增长率下降。中国将“去杠杆”作为供给侧结构性改革的一项重要任务，主动采取措施积极稳妥地降低全社会杠杆率，特别是非金融企业债务。目前，相关举措已取得一定成效。
不发达国家整体上经济体量小、抗风险能力差，经济结构较为单一。大宗商品价格变动和气候变化都可能在短期内对其构成大的冲击，不发达国家要想实现债务可持续，仍有相当长的一段路要走。
如何将全球债务这只“灰犀牛”关在笼子里？有几个基本因素至关重要。
第一个因素是全球经济能否维持适当的增长，不出现整体衰退？
第二个是全球贸易能否继续作为世界经济增长的重要引擎和增长效益改善的动力？
第三个是利率水平是否会保持基本平稳，不出现货币环境的剧烈变化？
第四个是债务背后的质量，债务的绝对数量只是问题的一个方面，债务的质量是另一个重要方面，相同的负债水平可能对应不同的承债和偿债能力。“具有较高造血功能”的债务，其风险就相对较小。
债务问题的有序解决必须避免两种极端，既不能用衰退型去杠杆的方式过快处理债务，也不能通过高通胀稀释债务。从根本上，全球债务问题需要加强国际协调，从世界经济发展的角度解决。着眼于全球范围内的制度变革、要素自由流动和效率提升，增强世界经济长期发展动能，以经济发展提升债务的可持续性。
第一，以有助于提升贸易对全球增长的带动作用为改革目标，共同推动世界贸易组织（WTO）改革，发挥全球贸易在优化要素配置、提高投资效率、加快技术扩散等方面的作用。当前全球贸易增长的放缓直接影响商业投资的信心，拖累经济增长放缓，应通过更加有效的合作促进贸易增长。
第二，提升债务质量。一些债务积累是过度的低效投资和重复投资,以及过度的低质量消费支出举债。要提高债务质量，需要提高全球产出的质量。因此，要以更加开放的姿态促进劳动力、资本、技术等各类资源的有序流动，促进各类资源的优化配置，警惕在贸易、投资、技术创新、产业、资源等方面的保护主义问题，促进全球产出质量的提高。
第三，针对发达国家政府部门的高债务、新兴市场企业和居民部门的高债务，以及不发达国家由于发展欠账造成的债务问题，可进一步发挥创新的作用，把发达国家的原始创新能力、新兴市场国家对技术创新的产业转化能力，以及更广大发展中国家的创新成果运用市场结合起来。这样既可有效提高发达国家的消费层次，也有利于新兴市场国家维持经济增长，不发达国家通过发展解决债务问题，提升债务可持续能力，从根本上防范化解全球高债务风险。
For the global economy, the biggest “gray rhino” right now is debt. Following the global financial crisis, due to the extremely loose monetary environment, we have seen a rapid build-up in global debt. According to the early March data of the BIS, the total amount of non-financial sector debt in countries and regions covered in its statistics reached US$178 trillion in Q3 2018, which is notably higher than the late 2008 figure of US$107 trillion. The global debt to GDP ratio also rose from 202% to 231% during the same period.
Country and region-wise, the overall leverage ratio of developed economies increased from 239% at the end of 2008 to 264% in Q3 2018. In particular, the government debt to GDP ratio rose from 64% to 81%. Over two-thirds of the new debts in developed economies came from the government sector. For these economies, the build-up of government debts is the crux of the problem.
For the emerging market economies covered in the BIS statistics, the leverage ratio of their non-financial sector rose from 107% to 179% during the same period of time, up by 72 percentage points, suggesting a rapid expansion in debt. On the whole, the excessive growth of corporate debts is the main problem besetting the emerging markets. The leverage ratio of the corporate sector has risen from 56% to 95%, reaching the level comparable to that of developed economies in absolute terms.
Debt build-up is also picking up speed in some underdeveloped countries. In a global environment of low interest rates, they have borrowed massive amount of foreign debts, leading to a notable increase in the ratio of external debt to GDP. According to World Bank statistics, the total amount of external debt owed by low-income countries reached a record high of US$157 billion in 2017, and the ratio of external debt to GDP rose to 27%.
The ever growing problem of global debt has weighed on economic growth and caused tremendous risks.
For developed countries, debt sustainability can be maintained in the short term through continued borrowing. Moreover, as the interest rate hike may have already come to a stop, the biggest uncertainty that could trigger debt risk is mitigated.
For emerging markets, population aging is a growing trend, and savings rates are visibly declining in East Asian countries. While the debt level comes down, there is also a drop in growth rate. China takes de-leveraging as an important task of the supply-side structural reform, and has taken active steps to steadily lower the leverage ratio across the society, especially the corporate debt level in the non-financial sector. As things stand now, these measures have delivered some initial results.
Underdeveloped countries are mostly small economies, with poor resilience and unitary economic structure. Things like commodity price changes and climate change are all likely to have a big impact in a short period. For these countries, there is still a long way to go to achieve debt sustainability.
How can we keep the “gray rhino” of global debt in the cage? The following basic factors are critically important. Factor No.1: can the global economy keep an appropriate speed of growth and avert a collective recession? Factor No.2: can global trade continue to serve as an engine for driving global growth and boosting growth efficiency? Factor No.3: can we keep interest rates basically stable, and prevent drastic changes in the monetary environment? Factor No.4: can the money borrowed produce sound economic returns so that the debts can be serviced and sustained?
To resolve the debt problem, we should try to avoid two extreme scenarios: one is aggressive deleveraging that may cause recession, and the other is debt dilution with hyper-inflation. Currently, to resolve the debt issue, I think we should focus on international coordination and economic development. As far as I am concerned, institutional reform, free flow of factors and efficiency improvement on a global scale is most needed to generate stronger momentum for long-term growth and improve debt sustainability through economic development.
To this end, I think we should strengthen our work in three areas.
First, boost trade growth through effective cooperation and coordination. Right now, there are a lot of discussions about WTO reform. In my view, enhancing the role of trade in driving global growth, improving factor allocation, increasing investment efficiency and accelerating diffusion of innovations shall be the basic objective for WTO reform. The slowdown in global trade has dampened confidence in commercial investment and dragged down global growth. It is therefore necessary to address trade frictions as quickly as possible and guard against trade protectionism.
Second, improve the quality of debt by raising the quality of global output. The absolute amount of debt is only one aspect of the problem, and the quality of debt is another important aspect. Owners of the same amount of debt may have different capabilities for sustaining and servicing their debts. Debts with “better blood-making functions” often tend to have lower risks. In this context, it is imperative to make efforts to ensure greater openness for the orderly flow of labor, capital, technology and other resources, and the optimization of resources allocation. By doing so, we can create an enabling environment for countries to improve their debt quality.
Third, give full play to the role of innovations. It is advisable to combine the original innovation capabilities of developed countries, the capabilities of emerging markets to translate the results of technological innovation into industrial opportunities, and the huge market of developing countries for applying innovation results. By forming synergies among them, the level of consumption in developed countries can be raised, economic growth of emerging markets can be maintained, and debt problem of underdeveloped countries can be addressed. In this way, innovation can play a bigger role in preventing and defusing the risk of mounting global debt.
责编: 李俊虎 | 视觉:李盼 | 监制:卜海森