【目录】《国际经济评论》2019年第1期

WTO改革应关注发展中成员的能力缺失问题       

  张向晨  徐清军  王金永

发展议题是多边贸易谈判的组成部分，也是当前世贸组织（WTO）改革的讨论内容。发展中国家特殊与差别待遇是多边发展议题的核心构成，历史沿革为给惠与受惠的关系。通过将 “不完全契约”、“能力贫困”等理论分析框架引入多边贸易谈判领域，本文认为，发展议题的本质是发展中国家存在能力缺失，而能力缺失问题制约了发展中国家的谈判水平以及将谈判成果转化为国内经济发展的程度。从能力缺失和一系列经济社会指标看，中国仍是发展中国家。多边发展议题的出路在于弥补“规则赤字”，解决发展中国家的能力缺失问题，既起始于多边规则谈判，也落脚于多边规则实施，即通过多边规则转化为国内法律法规，并将这一能力转化为国内经济和社会发展的动力和内生变量，进而发展中国家才能自主在多边贸易谈判中“根据能力作贡献”。

关键词：WTO改革 发展  能力缺失  根据能力作贡献

WTO Reform and Capacity Constraint of Its Developing Members

Zhang Xiangchen, Xu Qingjun and Wang Jinyong                        9

The issue of development has been an integral part of the multilateral trade negotiations and also an important aspect of the current WTO reform discussions. The special and differential treatment (S&DT) for developing countries is at the core of the development issue, which deals with the relationship between preference-giving and preference-taking. By introducing some theoretical analysis frameworks, such as the theory of “incomplete contract” and “poverty as capability deprivation” into the multilateral trade negotiations, this article concludes that the essence of the development issue at WTO is the capacity constraint of developing countries: the insufficient capacity limits the extent of their capability to negotiate internationally and transform the negotiated outcomes into domestic economic development. Reviewing the capacity constraint and an array of economic and social indicators, it argues that China is still a developing country. It also argues that the “deficit of rules” should be properly tackled to promote multilateral trade negotiations on development. The capacity constraint of developing countries stems from the past negotiations of multilateral trade rules and is demonstrated in the implementation of those rules. As a result, the developing countries may, on a voluntary basis, make contributions that match their capacities to multilateral trade negotiations through transforming multilateral trade rules into domestic laws and regulations and further converting their capacity into a driving force and endogenous engine for their domestic economic and social development.

WTO改革的必要性及其议题设计               

                           刘敬东

WTO及其代表的国际贸易法律体制正面临空前危机，包括WTO以及国际上主要贸易体在内的国际社会对WTO改革的必要性及其急迫性已有充分认知。WTO改革的价值取向决定着多边贸易体制及其法律制度的发展方向，各主要贸易体之间在这方面存在着巨大争论，中国应提出WTO改革遵循的基本原则。改革议题设计是WTO改革的前提，是WTO改革最终成功的基础，预示着WTO多边贸易体制的未来走向，中国应本着支持多边体制、捍卫自身核心贸易利益、追求各方共赢的方针尽快提出议题方案，寻求与大多数WTO成员方在改革议题方面的最大公约数。根据循序渐进的原则，通过三个阶段的改革，使得WTO摆脱当前生存危机，适应21世纪国际经济法发展趋势，进而推动WTO成为全球经济治理的典范。

关键词：WTO改革  必要性  议题设计

Necessity of WTO Reform and the Design of Reform Issues

Liu Jingdong                                                       34

The WTO and the international trade law system are facing an unprecedented crisis. The international community, including the WTO itself and major global traders, has reached a consensus over the necessity and urgency of the WTO reform. In which direction the WTO will be reformed will determine the development direction of the multilateral system and its legal system and major traders have been vastly divided over the direction of the WTO reform. China should propose the basic principles based on which the WTO should be reformed. The design of reform issues is the premise of, and the basis for, the success of the WTO reform and it reveals the future path of the WTO system. Based on the principle of supporting multilateral system, defending its own core trade interests, and pursuing win-win results among the WTO members, China should raise its proposals on WTO reform issues and seek to find the most common ground with the majority of WTO members. Based on the gradualist principle, the WTO should, through three phases of reform, overcome the present crisis, adapt itself to the development of international economic law in the 21th century, and become the model for global economic governance.

CPTPP的规则、影响及中国对策：基于和TPP对比的分析    

               白洁  苏庆义

2018年3月8日，备受关注的《全面进步的跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（CPTPP）得以签署，并于12月30日正式生效。经过删减后的CPTPP与《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（TPP）相比，其经济规模和战略影响力大不如前，但在国际经贸规则方面，CPTPP仍然代表新一代贸易协定的最高标准，可引领21世纪国际经贸规则。况且，仍存在未来美国重返这一自贸协定的可能。CPTPP的签署会对世界贸易版图、战略布局产生一定影响，尤其是在中美经贸摩擦、美欧日有联合制定经贸规则动向、世贸组织改革等新形势下，CPTPP的重要性明显上升。本文基于文本分析的视角，对成员国官方发布的CPTPP和TPP文本全文进行对比与解读。从经济层面、战略层面和规则层面分析CPTPP对世界和中国经济产生的影响。并在此基础上分析CPTPP条款在中国接受的难易程度，提出相关政策建议。

关键词：CPTPP  TPP  对比  解读

Rules, Impact and China’s Countermeasures: A Comparative Study of CPTPP and TPP

Bai Jie and Su Qingyi                                              58

The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) was finally signed on March 8, and entered into force on December 30, 2018. The truncated CPTPP, compared with the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), covers narrower economic scale and has less strategic impact. However, in terms of international economic and trade rules, the CPTPP still represents the highest standard of a new generation of trade agreements and can still lead the international economic and trade rule-setting in the 21st century. Moreover, there is still a possibility that the United States will return to the agreement in the future. The signing of the CPTPP will have some impact on the global trade landscape and strategic layout. Its importance has increased markedly, especially against the backdrop of the Sino-US economic and trade frictions, the release of a joint statement by the United States, Europe and Japan against certain policies of China, and the WTO reform. Based on text analysis, this article compares and interprets the CPTPP and the TPP texts published by member states. It also analyzes the impact of the CPTPP on the world and Chinese economy from the aspects of economy, strategy and rules before analyzing the China’s difficulty in accepting the CPTPP and putting forward relevant policy suggestions.

浅析联合国发展融资机制改革创新及对中国参与国际多边发展援助的影响                                         万泰雷   张绍桐

联合国可持续发展目标的提出，为包括联合国在内的全球发展系统提出了巨大的资金需求。然而在当前形势下，全球发展融资存在巨大的资金缺口；全球发展融资趋势发生变化，由双边官方援助一家独大向多边援助、南南合作以及私营企业、慈善资金参与并重的趋势发生转变。为应对国际发展融资新趋势、新挑战，联合国发展系统积极开展改革，调整战略、财务职能分配，加强资源协调整合。本文梳理了联合国发展改革的重要目标和措施，分析联合国系统及国际社会通过加强合作机制，建立国际融资机制，设计创新融资工具，推动新型债务减免和鼓励社会责任投资等创新尝试。随着联合国发展系统改革的深化，中国可对相关机遇与问题开展深入研究，顺势提升中国援助的国际影响力，兼顾受援方经济增长与社会、教育和民生发展，积极扩展新的援助合作渠道，利用多边平台在发展中国家减债中发挥积极作用，审慎应对改革过程中的问题，增强发展援助的风险防范能力。

关键词：可持续发展目标  发展援助  联合国改革  混合融资  债务减免

Reform and Innovation of UN Development Financing Mechanism and China’s Role in Multilateral Development Aid

Wan Tailei and Zhang Shaotong                                      77

The Sustainable Development Goals of the UN has created great demand for funds from the global development systems, including the United Nations Development System (UNDS). However, global development financing now suffers from a huge funding deficit. Meanwhile, the global development financing is shifting from being dominated by bilateral official development aid (ODA) to a new landscape in which multilateral aids, South-South cooperation, as well as private and philanthropic funding participation have played an equally important role. To respond to those new trends and challenges, the UNDS has actively sought to reform by adjusting the distribution of its strategic and financial functions and strengthening coordination between different institutions within the UNDS. This article summarizes several important goals and measures of the UNDS reform. It analyzes the innovative attempts by the UNDS and the international community, including strengthening cooperative mechanism, building international financing facilities, designing innovative financing instruments, promoting new forms of debt relief, and encouraging social impact investment. As the UNDS reform deepens, China can conduct in-depth research into relevant opportunities and problems to i) raise the international influence of China's aid; ii) balance economic growth with social, educational and civil development for aid recipients; iii) expand aid into new and cooperative channels; iv) leverage multilateral platform to play a positive role in debt reliefs for developing countries; v) provide prudential responses to emerging problems during the reform process, and enhance risk prevention capabilities for development aid.

如何渡过中美贸易摩擦的不确定水域？

张明   程实   张岸元   邵宇   殷剑峰   王孜弘   葛天任   东艳

肖立晟  范为   吴庆   李奇霖   罗志恒   张斌   张一

2018年11月29日，由中国世界经济学会、《国际经济评论》编辑部举办的“如何渡过中美贸易摩擦的不确定水域？”主题研讨会在北京举行。与会专家围绕美国经济和中国经济两个议题进行了热烈的讨论。现刊出经发言者本人审定的观点。

How to Get Through the Chartered Waters of the China-US Trade Disputes?

Zhang Ming, Cheng Shi, Zhang Anyuan, Shao Yu, Yin Jianfeng,

Wang Zihong, Ge Tianren, Dong Yan, Xiao Lisheng, Fan Wei,

Wu Qing, Li Qilin, Luo Zhiheng, Zhang Bin and Zhang Yi             89

The China Society of World Economics and the editorial board of the International Economic Review journal held a symposium, themed "How to Get Through the Unchartered Waters of the China-US Trade Disputes", in Beijing on November 29, 2018. Experts at the meeting engaged in heated discussions over topics related to the Chinese and US economy.

从长期经济增长角度看中美贸易摩擦           

                  姚洋   邹静娴

中美贸易摩擦表面上看是由中美间长期经常账户失衡引起的贸易争端，但从更长期的视角来看，背后折射出的是中、美两国在长期经济增速以及生产率进步上的差异。包括美国在内的诸多发达国家在其经济起飞阶段都曾有过长期且稳定的经常项目顺差，实证结果也表明在控制了各国金融市场发展效率及贸易伙伴国经济增速后，国家间相对经济增长率高低是决定两国经常账户结构的基本面因素。从经济增长角度来解释贸易摩擦有两个维度可供考虑：一是当一国增速（相对）放缓时往往倾向于挑起贸易摩擦，二是当国家间增速变动较大时可能激化贸易摩擦。前者主要源于逆差国的不满，后者主要源于全球经济、政治格局大调整带来的冲击。一国长期增长率背后又是以生产率进步为支撑，从这一视角来看，未来贸易摩擦的势头取决于“技术进步”与国家间擦枪走火“意外”的赛跑。

关键词：贸易摩擦  经济增长  技术进步

China-US Trade Disputes: From a Long-term Economic Growth Perspective

Yao Yang and Zou Jingxian                                         146

The China-US trade frictions apparently stem from the long-standing current account imbalances between the two countries. However, as we argued in this article, the fundamental cause is the difference in long-term economic growth and productivity progress between the two countries. History shows that many developed countries, including the US, have achieved long-term and steady current account surplus during their economic take-off and catch-up periods. Empirical evidences also show that (relative) economic growth rate is more fundamental in determining a country’s current account status. There are two channels for economic growth to induce trade frictions: one is that a country tends to raise trade frictions when it experiences a slowdown in economic growth, while the other is that the change in economic ranking may also deteriorate trade conflicts. The former is mainly driven by the dissatisfaction of the deficit countries, while the latter is driven by the world-wide adjustment in terms of economic and political power. Since a country’s long-run economic growth relies on the improvement in technology and productivity, the future of the trade frictions will depend on the race between “technological progress” and “accidents” of conflicts that arise from intensifying rivalry between the two powers.

Think Tank

International Economic Review, 2018 Index   

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