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大限之后,华为最暗时刻或在明年

凭海观潮 2020-10-24


  凭海观潮 长按关注  
华为关键零部件被“卡脖子”的日子真正到来,向外代工芯片和采购芯片两条道路都被美方精准扼制。

来源:华夏时报

历经多次管制升级,悬在华为头顶的美方禁令终于落下。9月15日,美方对华为的禁令正式生效,这意味着华为关键零部件被“卡脖子”的日子真正到来,向外代工芯片和采购芯片两条道路都被美方精准扼制。
华为芯片受限带来的最直观影响是手机出货量的下滑。但考虑到企业通常的备货周期,影响的传导或许并不会立竿见影。但华为重构供应链的挑战已经迫在眉睫,且任重道远。
严峻考验还在明年
9月15日后,华为手机的出货量将完全依靠库存芯片。此前有外媒消息称,华为海思已经包机将麒麟和其它相关芯片赶在9月15日之前从中国台湾运回大陆。
芯片被卡脖子已经导致华为手机出货量的下滑。
华为消费者业务CEO余承东在9月10日的华为开发者大会上透露,华为手机在2019年的出货量是2.4亿部。8月7日的中国信息化百人会2020年峰会上他曾表示,因为2019年5月的禁令,导致华为手机在2019年的发货量少了6000万台。
但2020年将被真实“卡脖子”三个半月的华为,预计会遭遇更大幅度的下滑。


近日,余承东在华为开发者大会上透露,2020年上半年华为消费者业务手机全球出货量为1.05亿部。此外,华为消费者业务今年上半年销售收入2558亿元,相当于去年全年的55%。但对于下半年的手机销量他并没有预测。而严峻考验还在明年。有外媒消息称,华为2021年的出货量预计将下滑至0.5亿部。
有资深半导体产业人士告诉《华夏时报》记者,芯片是手机零部件中的龙头,他预计不止芯片,华为手机其它相关配套零部件的备货,也都会按比例往下调。他预计因为有备货支撑,华为手机今年的出货量不会有太大问题,老机型可能还会撑一段时间。但明年上半年发的新机型要被卡脖子,出货量会影响很大。
Omdia分析师李泽刚也对《华夏时报》记者分析称,基于目前来看,华为9月15号以后只能依靠库存来维持生产和出货,“新机会受到较大影响,老的机型取决于备多少货。“
李泽刚告诉记者,手机工艺供应链特别长,零部件很多,任何一个零部件缺失都影响很大。他认为,华为还是想尽量延长库存使用周期,尽可能控制零部件的生产节奏,使手机的出货来保持更长周期。但他同时也强调,手机厂不可能备太大的半导体库存,资金链也不可能支持。他认为,目前华为整个供应链都不太明确,“华为很艰难,因为没有什么好对策,还是要看大选后政策有没有松动变化。”


华为手机出货量的下滑,也将导致全球手机竞争格局的变化。
上述资深半导体产业人士认为,从国内市场来看,OPPO 、vivo、小米三家将从华为手机出货量的下滑中受益最多,在中低端市场获得更大的份额。而对于国外市场,他认为,相对只注重高端机的苹果,三星在海外无论是市场还是产品结构都和华为非常类似,在每一档手机都直接竞争,将从中特别在欧洲市场受益更多。
重构产业链的挑战
向外的代工和采购之路都被堵住,华为迫切需要重构供应链,早日实现国产自主替代。但这个方案显然需要时间。
近日,华为在2020开发者大会上宣布,将于今年年底首先对国内开发者发布针对智能手机的鸿蒙系统测试版本。此外,华为所有手机在明年都将支持鸿蒙系统。
但据《华夏时报》记者了解,鸿蒙系统此前并不是针对手机系统研发。而年底才推出手机端的测试版本则意味着,鸿蒙系统相较手机目前通用的安卓系统的使用感受,还有较远的距离。
但在手机之外的赛道,鸿蒙系统已经落地。在上述大会上华为方面宣布,鸿蒙系统已经和美的、九阳、老板等家电厂商达成合作,陆续会有搭载鸿蒙系统 2.0的智能家居设备面世。需要提及的是,余承东还披露目前华为HiCar已合作超过150款车,2021年计划预装超过500万台车。
据《华夏时报》记者了解,虽然现在高端手机都采用7纳米芯片,但14纳米芯片用于中低端手机、平板以及蓝牙音箱、智能电表这些终端已经足够。而华为在智能家居、车联网方面的最新技术显示,或许意味着在手机芯片被卡脖子后,华为正在寻找能够实现芯片自主国产化的物联网新赛道。
如果说鸿蒙系统解决了华为在生态系统上从零到一的问题,在手机芯片上华为则完全要实现从零开始。但每年2亿部的出货量意味着这是一个不能被随便放弃的市场。
一位不愿具名的业内人士认为,美方新规意味着华为外采高端芯片的路几乎全部被堵死,因为目前来看完全绕不过去。他同时对《华夏时报》记者表示,不仅是获取不了高端芯片,后续在获取基站芯片等方面也都不容易,“还要问问设计工具是不是美国的”。但他也强调,还需要等等看后续的走向。
但通信专家康钊此前曾对《华夏时报》记者分析称,华为外采芯片的路不见得被完全堵死,关键要看是不是都采用了美国技术,以及华为是否愿意降低自己对芯片的标准要求。作为参照,相对华为的麒麟9000芯片采用台积电5nm制程工艺,国内芯片厂商普遍使用的28nm制程工艺,14nm制程工艺才刚开始放量。
华为已经在尝试构建芯片自主供应链。据《华夏时报》记者了解,华为此前在上海青浦投资400亿元的芯片基地正在筹建当中。它的隔壁就是中芯国际的厂区。康钊还认为,华为的芯片产业链建设不能只依靠自己,可以通过收购、参股、联合等方式来实现与其他企业共同建设,“发展好的话,没有十年也做不了。”



50. All you can do is to try your best. Even with those small steps, you're closer to your goal than you were yesterday. 我们能做的只是拼尽全力,即使迈出的步子再小,也比昨天要更接近自己的目标。51. A smile is the shortest distance between two people. 微笑是人与人之间最短的距离。52. Do or do not. There is no try. 要么做,要么滚!没有试试看这一说。53. Courage is being afraid but going on anyhow. 勇气就是虽感恐惧,但仍会前行。54. A man can be destroyed but not defeated. 人可以被毁灭,但不可以被打败。55. A truly happy person is one who can enjoy the scenery while on a detour. 真正快乐的人是那种在走弯路时也不忘享受风景的人。56. No dream is too big, and no dreamer is too small. 梦想再大也不嫌大,追梦的人再小也不嫌小。57. It doesn't matter how many times you fail. What matters is how many times you stand up and try again. 失败多少次不重要,重要的是你能重新站起来多少次,并且继续前行。58. Silence is the most powerful cry. 沉默是最有力的呐喊。《美丽人生》 59. A little consideration, a little thought for others makes all the difference. 一点点体贴,一点点为他人着想,会让一切都不一样。60. Stop waiting for things to happen.Go out and make them happen. 别指望事情会自然发生,行动起来,让它们变成可能!61. Don't look forward to tomorrow, don't miss yesterday, to grasp today. 不憧憬明天,不留念昨天,只把握今天。62. Now we don't call it alive. It's just not to die. 我们现在不叫活着,这只是没有死去。《疯狂原始人》 63. You can change your life if you want to. Sometimes you have to be hard on yourself, but you can change it completely. 有志者事竟成。有时虽劳其筋骨,但命运可以彻底改变。《唐顿庄园》 64. Time will bring a surprise, if you believe. 时间会带来惊喜,如果你相信的话。《浮生物语》 65. What others think is not important . How you feel about yourself is all that matters. 别人怎么想并不重要,你怎么看自己才是关键。66. Don't cry because it is over,smile because it happened. 不要因为结束而哭泣,微笑吧,因为你曾经拥有。67. Tomorrow is never clear. Our time is here. 明天是未知的,我们还是享受此刻吧!《摇滚夏令营》 68. Life is either a daring adventure or nothing at all. 生活要么大胆尝试,要么什么都不是。69. Pursue excellence and success will follow. 追求卓越,成功自然来。《三傻大闹宝莱坞》 70. Climb mountains not so the world can see you, but so you can see the world. 爬上山顶并不是为了让全世界看到你,而是让你看到整个世界。71. Every step towards your dream today is a step away from your regret tomorrow. 今日为梦想所付出的每一份努力都会减少明日的一份后悔。72. It's never too late to be what you might have been. 勇敢做自己,永远都不迟。(乔治·艾略特) 73. It's time to start living the life you've imagined. 是时候开始过自己想要的生活了!95. How can men succumb to force? 男人怎么能屈服于“武力”之下?《海贼王》 96. Life is like live TV show. There is no rehearsal. 人生没有彩排,只有现场直播。97. Dress shabbily and they remember the dress; dress impeccably and they remember the woman. 穿着破旧,人们记住衣服;穿着无瑕,人们则记住衣服里的女人。(Coco Chanel) 98. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies. 希望是一件好事,也许是人间至善,而美好的事永不消逝。《肖申克的救赎》 99. There are so many beautiful reasons to be happy. 有太多太多美好的理由让你笑对生活。100. Where the more different you are, the better. 你们之间越是不同,越好。(Glee) 101. I'm only brave when I have to be. Being brave doesn't mean you go looking for trouble. 我只在必要时才勇敢,勇敢并不代表你要到处闯祸。《狮子王》 102. Behind every successful man there's a lot of unsuccessful years. 每个牛B的成功者都经历过苦B的岁月。(鲍博.布朗) 103. If you want something done, do it yourself. 靠谁都不如靠自己。《第五元素》 104. Life is a wonderful journey. Make it your journey and not someone else's. 生命是一段精彩旅程,要活的有自己的样子,而不是别人的影子。105. No matter how many mistakes you make or how slowly you progress, you are already ahead of those who never tried. 无论你犯了多少错,或者进步得有多慢,你都走在了那些不曾尝试的人的前面。106. Some things are so important that they force us to overcome our fears. 总有些更重要的事情,赋予我们打败恐惧的勇气。107. Say to yourself: "No matter how many obstacles I encounter in life, I will do all that I can to complete the whole course." 请对自己说:无论生活之路上会遇到多少障碍,我会竭尽所能地跑完这一程。108. No cross, no crown. 不经历风雨,怎么见彩虹。109. Try not to become a man of success but rather try to become a man of value. 与其努力成功,不如努力成为有价值的人。(爱因斯坦) 110. Remember when life's path is steep to keep your mind even. 记住:当人生很苦逼的时候,你要保持淡定。111. If you're brave enough to say GOODBYE, life will reward you with a new HELLO. 只要你勇敢地说出再见,生活一定会给你一个新的开始。112. Sometimes the right path is not the easiest one. 对的那条路,往往不是最好走的。113. Just trust yourself, then you will know how to live. 只要相信自己,你就会懂得如何去生活。114. In life it's not where you go. It's who you travel with. 生命中,重要的不是你去哪里,而是与谁同行。115. Life is like a rainbow. You don't always know what's on the other side, but you know it's there. 生活像一道彩虹,你不知道另一端通向哪里,但你会知道,它总是在那里。116. When the world says,"Give up!"Hope whispers,"Try it one more time." 当全世界都在说“放弃”的时候,希望却在耳边轻轻地说:“再试一次吧”!117. I don't care about other questions and I just try to be myself. 我不在乎别人的质疑,我只会做好自己。118. Attempt doesn't necessarily bring success, but giving up definitely leads to failure. 努力不一定成功,但放弃一定失败!119. The best preparation for tomorrow is doing your best today. 对明天最好的准备就是今天做到最好。120. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart. 你已经一无所有,没有什么道理不顺心而为。(乔布斯) 121. Life is a journey, one that is much better traveled with a companion by our side. 人生是一场旅程,我们最好结伴同行。122. Sometimes you have to fall before you can fly. 有时候,你得先跌下去,才能飞起来。123. If you are able to appreciate beauty in the ordinary, your life will be more vibrant. 如果你擅于欣赏平凡中的美好,你的生活会更加多姿多彩。124. Be who you are, and never ever apologize for that! 坚持做自己,并永远不要为此而后悔!125. Consider the bad times as down payment for the good times. Hang in there. 把苦日子当做好日子的首付,坚持就是胜利!126. Do not pray for easy lives, pray to be stronger. 与其祈求生活平淡点,还不如祈求自己强大点。127. Everybody can fly without wings when they hold on to their dreams. 坚持自己的梦想,即使没有翅膀也能飞翔。128. There is no such thing as a great talent without great will power. 没有伟大的意志力,便没有雄才大略。129. You can't change your situation. The only thing that you can change is how you choose to deal with it. 境遇难以改变,你能改变的唯有面对它时的态度。130. Whatever is worth doing at all is worth doing well. 凡是值得做的事,就值得做好。131. Perfection is not just about control.It's also about letting go. 完美不仅在于控制,也在于释放。《黑天鹅》 132. Dream is what makes you happy, even when you are just trying. 梦想就是一种让你感到坚持就是幸福的东西。133. Never frown,because you never know who is falling in love with your smile. 别愁眉不展,因为你不知道谁会爱上你的笑容。134. It's easy once you know how. 一旦你明白,就会很简单。135. In order to be irreplaceable, one must always be different. 要做到不可替代,就要与众不同。136. I honestly think it is better to be a failure at something you love than to be a success at something you hate. 宁愿失败地做你爱做的事情,也不要成功地做你恨做的事情。(George Burns) 137. Don't hide. Run! You'll make it to tomorrow. 别躲避,奔跑吧,你就会找到明天。138. Life comes with many challenges.The ones that should not scare us are the ones we can take on and take control of. 生活充满了挑战,唯有勇敢面对并自我掌控,我们才能克服恐惧。(安吉丽娜·朱莉) 139. Life doesn't just happen to you; you receive everything in your life based on what you've given. 一切发生在你身上的都不是碰巧。你获得什么,在于你付出了什么。140.You are more beautiful than you think. 你,要比你想象的更美丽。141. Throughout life's complications, you should maintain such a sense of elegance. 不管生活有多不容易,你都要守住自己的那一份优雅。142. When you feel like giving up, remember why you held on so long in the first place. 每当你想要放弃的时候,就想想是为了什么才一路坚持到现在。143. Enjoy your youth.You'll never be younger than you are at this very moment. 好好享受青春,你再也不会有哪个时刻会比此时更年轻了。144. You'd better bring, cause I'll bring every I've got it. 你最好全神贯注,因为我定会全力以赴!145. Take time to enjoy the simple things in life. 慢慢享受生活中的简单。146. As long as you are still alive, you will definitely encounter the good things in life. 只要活着就一定会遇上好事。147. Hold on, it gets better than you know. 挺住,事情会比你想像中要好!148. If you are fine,the sun will always shine. 你若安好,便是晴天。149. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger. 磨难会让你更强大。150. Every life deserves our respect. 每一个生命都应该被尊重。151. The best feeling in the world is when you know your heart is smiling. 世间最美好的感受,就是发现自己的心在笑。152. Don't ever underestimate the heart of a champion. 永远不要低估一颗冠军的心。(Rudy Tomjanovich) 153. There is nothing permanent except change. 唯一不变的是变化。154. The difference between successful persons and others is that they really act. 成功者和其他人最大的区别就是,他们真正动手去做了。155. Don't follow the crowd, let the crowd follow you. 不要随波逐流,要引领潮流。(Margaret Thatcher) 156. People pay in advance for a coffee meant for someone who cannot afford a warm beverage. 人们提前买咖啡,让付不起的人享受温暖。157. No one is born a genius.Just keep on doing what you like and that itself is a talent. 哪有什么天才!坚持做你喜欢的事情,这本身就是一种天赋。(大野智) 158. The world is a book, and those who do not travel read only one page. 世界是一本书,不旅行的人只读了其中一页。159. You can create something more glorious than the championship. 你可以创造比冠军更荣耀的事。160. You never get a second chance to make a first impression. 永远没有第二次机会,给人留下第一印象。161. You can always be a worse version of "him", or better version of yourself. 你不是要做一个单纯优秀的人,而是要做一个不可替代的人。162. Give every day the chance to become the most beautiful day of your life. 让每一天都有机会成为你人生中最美好的一天。163. Honesty is the best policy. 做人以诚信为本。164. To a crazy ship all winds are contrary. 对于一只漫无目标的船而言,任何方向的风都是逆风。165. The outer world you see is a reflection of your inner self. 你看到什么样的世界,你就拥有什么样的内心。166. Strike while the iron is hot. 趁热打铁。167. Knowing what you cannot do is far more important than knowing what you are capable of. 知道自己不能做什么远比知道自己能做什么重要。168. People cry, not because they're weak. It's because they've been strong for too long. 哭泣,不代表脆弱,只因坚强了太久。169. Don't let yesterday use up too much of today. 别留念昨天了,把握好今天吧。(Will Rogers) 170. If you are not brave enough, no one will back you up. 你不勇敢,没人替你坚强。171. If you don't build your dream, someone will hire you to build theirs. 如果你没有梦想,那么你只能为别人的梦想打工。172. Beauty is all around, if you just open your heart to see. 只要你给自己机会,你会发现你的世界可以很美丽。173. The difference in winning and losing is most often...not quitting. 赢与输的差别通常是--不放弃。(华特·迪士尼) 174. I am ordinary yet unique. 我很平凡,但我独一无二。175. I like people who make me laugh in spite of myself. 我喜欢那些让我笑起来的人,就算是我不想笑的时候。176. Image a new story for your life and start living it. 为你的生命想一个全新剧本,并去倾情出演吧!177. I'd rather be a happy fool than a sad sage. 做个悲伤的智者,不如做个开心的傻子。178. The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams. 未来属于那些相信梦想之美的人。(埃莉诺·罗斯福) 179. Even if you get no applause, you should accept a curtain call gracefully and appreciate your own efforts. 即使没有人为你鼓掌,也要优雅的谢幕,感谢自己的认真付出。180. Don't let dream just be your dream. 别让梦想只停留在梦里。181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧,见的世面多了,你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧,管它会怎样。185. A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow. 今天的好计划胜过明天的完美计划。186. Nothing is impossible, the word itself says 'I'm possible'! 一切皆有可能!“不可能”的意思是:“不,可能。”(奥黛丽·赫本) 187. Life isn't fair, but no matter your circumstances, you have to give it your all. 生活是不公平的,不管你的境遇如何,你只能全力以赴。188. No matter how hard it is, just keep going because you only fail when you give up. 无论多么艰难,都要继续前进,因为只有你放弃的那一刻,你才输了。189. It requires hard work to give off an appearance of effortlessness. 你必须十分努力,才能看起来毫不费力。190. Life is like riding a bicycle.To keep your balance,you must keep moving. 人生就像骑单车,只有不断前进,才能保持平衡。(爱因斯坦) 191. Be thankful for what you have.You'll end up having more. 拥有一颗感恩的心,最终你会得到更多。192. Beauty is how you feel inside, and it reflects in your eyes. 美是一种内心的感觉,并反映在你的眼睛里。(索菲亚·罗兰) 193. Friendship doubles your joys, and divides your sorrows. 朋友的作用,就是让你快乐加倍,痛苦减半。194. When you long for something sincerely, the whole world will help you. 当你真心渴望某样东西时,整个宇宙都会来帮忙。    When Paul Jobs was mustered out of the Coast Guard after World War II, he made a wager with his crewmates. They had arrived in San Francisco, where their ship was decommissioned, and Paul bet that he would find himself a wife within two weeks. He was a taut, tattooed engine mechanic, six feet tall, with a passing resemblance to James Dean. But it wasn’t his looks that got him a date with Clara Hagopian, a sweet-humored daughter of Armenian immigrants. It was the fact that he and his friends had a car, unlike the group she had originally planned to go out with that evening. Ten days later, in March 1946, Paul got engaged to Clara and won his wager. It would turn out to be a happy marriage, one that lasted until death parted them more than forty years later. Paul Reinhold Jobs had been raised on a dairy farm in Germantown, Wisconsin. Even though his father was an alcoholic and sometimes abusive, Paul ended up with a gentle and calm disposition under his leathery exterior. After dropping out of high school, he wandered through the Midwest picking up work as a mechanic until, at age nineteen, he joined the Coast Guard, even though he didn’t know how to swim. He was deployed on the USS General M. C. Meigs and spent much of the war ferrying troops to Italy for General Patton. His talent as a machinist and fireman earned him commendations, but he occasionally found himself in minor trouble and never rose above the rank of seaman. Clara was born in New Jersey, where her parents had landed after fleeing the Turks in Armenia, and they moved to the Mission District of San Francisco when she was a child. She had a secret that she rarely mentioned to anyone: She had been married before, but her husband had been killed in the war. So when she met Paul Jobs on that first date, she was primed to start a new life. Like many who lived through the war, they had experienced enough excitement that, when it was over, they desired simply to settle down, raise a family, and lead a less eventful life. They had little money, so they moved to Wisconsin and lived with Paul’s parents for a few years, then headed for Indiana, where he got a job as a machinist for International Harvester. His passion was tinkering with old cars, and he made money in his spare time buying, restoring, and selling them. Eventually he quit his day job to become a full-time used car salesman. Clara, however, loved San Francisco, and in 1952 she convinced her husband to move back there. They got an apartment in the Sunset District facing the Pacific, just south of Golden Gate Park, and he took a job working for a finance company as a “repo man,” picking the locks of cars whose owners hadn’t paid their loans and repossessing them. He also bought, repaired, and sold some of the cars, making a decent enough living in the process. There was, however, something missing in their lives. They wanted children, but Clara had suffered an ectopic pregnancy, in which the fertilized egg was implanted in a fallopian tube rather than the uterus, and she had been unable to have any. So by 1955, after nine years of marriage, they were looking to adopt a child. Like Paul Jobs, Joanne Schieble was from a rural Wisconsin family of German heritage. Her father, Arthur Schieble, had immigrated to the outskirts of Green Bay, where he and his wife owned a mink farm and dabbled successfully in various other businesses, including real estate and photoengraving. He was very strict, especially regarding his daughter’s relationships, and he had strongly disapproved of her first love, an artist who was not a Catholic. Thus it was no surprise that he threatened to cut Joanne off completely when, as a graduate student at the University of Wisconsin, she fell in love with Abdulfattah “John” Jandali, a Muslim teaching assistant from Syria. Jandali was the youngest of nine children in a prominent Syrian family. His father owned oil refineries and multiple other businesses, with large holdings in Damascus and Homs, and at one point pretty much controlled the price of wheat in the region. His mother, he later said, was a “traditional Muslim woman” who was a “conservative, obedient housewife.” Like the Schieble family, the Jandalis put a premium on education. Abdulfattah was sent to a Jesuit boarding school, even though he was Muslim, and he got an undergraduate degree at the American University in Beirut before entering the University of Wisconsin to pursue a doctoral degree in political science. In the summer of 1954, Joanne went with Abdulfattah to Syria. They spent two months in Homs, where she learned from his family to cook Syrian dishes. When they returned to Wisconsin she discovered that she was pregnant. They were both twenty-three, but they decided not to get married. Her father was dying at the time, and he had threatened to disown her if she wed Abdulfattah. Nor was abortion an easy option in a small Catholic community. So in early 1955, Joanne traveled to San Francisco, where she was taken into the care of a kindly doctor who sheltered unwed mothers, delivered their babies, and quietly arranged closed adoptions. Joanne had one requirement: Her child must be adopted by college graduates. So the doctor arranged for the baby to be placed with a lawyer and his wife. But when a boy was born—on February 24, 1955—the designated couple decided that they wanted a girl and backed out. Thus it was that the boy became the son not of a lawyer but of a high school dropout with a passion for mechanics and his salt-of-the-earth wife who was working as a bookkeeper. Paul and Clara named their new baby Steven Paul Jobs. When Joanne found out that her baby had been placed with a couple who had not even graduated from high school, she refused to sign the adoption papers. The standoff lasted weeks, even after the baby had settled into the Jobs household. Eventually Joanne relented, with the stipulation that the couple promise—indeed sign a pledge—to fund a savings account to pay for the boy’s college education. There was another reason that Joanne was balky about signing the adoption papers. Her father was about to die, and she planned to marry Jandali soon after. She held out hope, she would later来源:小兵说天下

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