国际顶刊 |《政治科学研究与方法》第10卷（2022年）第3期
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政治学人始终在路上
本期国际化部为大家带来了Political Science Research and Methods（PSRM，《政治科学研究与方法》）2022年第10卷第3期文章编译。
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PART 1
期刊简介
Political Science Research and Methods（PSRM，《政治科学研究与方法》）是一份关注综合政治科学的国际顶级期刊，致力于发表政治科学所有子领域中最高质量的原创学术作品。该期刊特别关注将严格的方法应用于经验或理论问题的研究，并提倡以严格的科学方法研究现实政治。该刊欢迎在政治学和相关学科（如经济学和社会学）的交叉领域的工作。该刊是欧洲政治科学协会（European Political Science Association, EPSA）的官方期刊，致力于成为政治科学领域的领先期刊之一。该刊在《科睿唯安2021年期刊引用报告》（Clarivate JCR2021）中JIF=5.239，在187种政治科学类（Political Science-SSCI）期刊中排名第12（Q1）。
PART 2
期刊目录
Can political speech foster tolerance of immigrants?
政治演说能否促进对移民的宽容?
Divisive jobs: three facets of risk, precarity, and redistribution
分裂的工作：风险、不稳定和再分配的三个方面
Follow the majority? How voters coordinate electoral support to secure club goods
遵循多数人的意见？选民如何协调选举支持以确保俱乐部的商品
Hard traveling: unemployment and road infrastructure in the shadow of political conflict
艰难的旅程：政治冲突阴影下的失业和道路基础设施
How the refugee crisis and radical right parties shape party competition on immigration?
难民危机和激进右翼政党如何塑造政党在移民方面的竞争？
Point break: using machine learning to uncover a critical mass in women’s representation
突破点：利用机器学习揭示女性代表的群聚效应
How government-controlled media shifts policy attitudes through framing?
政府控制的媒体如何通过框架转变政策态度？
Complex dependence in foreign direct investment: network theory and empirical analysis
外商直接投资的复杂依赖：网络理论与实证分析
Bargaining outcomes and success in EU economic governance reforms
谈判结果与欧盟经济治理改革的成功
Backlash to policy decisions: how citizens react to immigrants’ rights to demonstrate
对政策决定的强烈反对：公民如何对移民的示威权作出反应
PART 3
精选译文
01 政治演说能否促进对移民的宽容?
【题目】
Can political speech foster tolerance of immigrants?
【作者】
Petra Schleiter, Margit Tavits, Dalston Ward
【摘要】
政客们经常利用政治演说来煽动对移民的敌意，这种策略塑造了政治偏好和政治行为，并助长了右翼民粹主义的成功。然而，政治演说是否可以用来促进对移民的宽容，仍然有待探索。我们确定了政治演说可以提高容忍度的三种机制：（1）强调凸显与移民共同点的群体内概念；（2）强调作为群体内规范的包容性；（3）提供反击反移民模式化观念的信息。通过在两个调查实验中引用美国政治家的话，我们发现，强调包容性规范或反驳对移民负面刻板印象的支持移民言论会导致对移民更宽容的态度（但不是行为）。这些影响很小，而且只在大样本中可以检测到。
Politicians frequently use political speech to foster hostility toward immigrants, a strategy that shapes political preferences and behavior and feeds the success of the populist right. Whether political speech can be used to foster tolerance of immigrants, however, remains unexplored. We identify three mechanisms by which political speech could increase tolerance: (1)stressing in-group conceptions that highlight commonalities with immigrants; (2) emphasizing inclusiveness as an in-group norm; and (3) providing information that counters anti-immigrant stereotypes. Using quotes from US politicians in two survey experiments, we find that pro-immigrant speech that stresses inclusive norms or counters negative stereotypes about immigrants leads to more tolerant attitudes (but not behavior) toward immigrants. These effects are small and detectable only in large samples.
02 分裂的工作：风险、不稳定和再分配的三个方面
【题目】
Divisive jobs: three facets of risk, precarity, and redistribution
【作者】
Raluca L. Pahontu
【摘要】
了解公众舆论转变的一个核心挑战是确定谁的意见发生了变化。政治经济学家试图通过探索选民的经济脆弱性，特别是劳动力市场风险和再分配偏好之间的关系来揭示这一点。然而，这些工作主要将风险归因于职业或部门特征。由于职业内部风险暴露的不平等，相当多的变化仍然没有被探索。我建议对从工作任期、合同类型和对工作安全的期望推断出的风险进行个人层面的、动态的描述。重要的是，这些方面说明了个人在风险方面的变化，以及一个人的风险经历可能会随时间而变化。结果表明，这种处理风险的方法对于理解社会支出偏好的变化非常有用。
A central challenge in understanding public opinion shifts is identifying whose opinions change. Political economists try to uncover this by exploring voters’ economic vulnerability, particularly the relationship between labor-market risk and redistribution preferences. Predominantly, however, such work imputes risk from occupational or sectoral characteristics. Due to within-occupational inequality in exposure to risk, considerable variation remains unexplored. I propose an individual-level, dynamic account of risk inferred from job tenure, contract type, and expectations of job security. These aspects, importantly, account for individual variation in risk and the possibility that one’s experience of risk may change across time. The results indicate the usefulness of this approach to risk in understanding changes in social spending preferences.
03 遵循多数人的意见？选民如何协调选举支持以确保俱乐部的商品
【题目】
Follow the majority? How voters coordinate electoral support to secure club goods
【作者】
Dominik Duell
【摘要】
选民们往往倾向于那些对他们个人有利的候选人，但也可能根据其社会团体协调对其他候选人的支持，以换取针对他们团体的政策。在一个实验室实验中，我利用群体身份来研究面临这种权衡的选民的行为。我发现，内部异质性较低的群体往往能从一个对群体中大多数人都有利的候选人那里获得俱乐部利益。在异质性较高的群体中，对该候选人的协调往往失败，虽然该群体仍能获得俱乐部物品，但却是来自一个其政策对该群体中大多数人来说都是昂贵成本的候选人。这些结果强调了战略考虑在基于群体的选举联盟形成中的作用。
Voters often favor candidates who benefit them individually but may coordinate their support with their social group on other candidates in exchange for policies targeting their group. In a laboratory experiment, I induce group identities to investigate the behavior of voters facing such trade-offs. I find that groups with low within heterogeneity often secure the club good from a candidate who is also individually beneficial to a majority of the group. In more heterogeneous groups, coordination on that candidate often fails and while the group still receives club goods, it is from a candidate whose policies are otherwise individually costly to most of the group. The results highlight the role strategic considerations play in the formation of group-based electoral coalitions.
04 艰难的旅程：政治冲突阴影下的失业和道路基础设施
【题目】
Hard traveling: unemployment and road infrastructure in the shadow of political conflict
【作者】
Alexei Sisulu Abrahams
【摘要】
如果政治环境是中东地区失业的一个重要原因，这是否倾向于削弱经济基础设施的影响？我通过建立西岸的地理空间数据集来探讨这个问题，该地区的高失业率可被证据证明与政治问题有关。但我发现以色列军队在第二次起义期间部署的道路障碍物，阻碍了城市周边的巴勒斯坦通勤者进入商业中心和边境口岸，造成了就业损失，而这些损失被位于更中心位置的巴勒斯坦竞争者的就业收益大大抵消。研究结果表明，微小的经济干预，如清除障碍物或铺设道路，很有可能改变失业的空间分布，但如果没有政治改革，可能难以降低总体失业水平。
If political circumstances are an important cause of unemployment in the Middle East, does this tend to attenuate the influence of economic infrastructure? I approach this question by building a geospatial dataset of the West Bank, an area with high unemployment arguably linked to political problems. I find Israeli army road obstacles, deployed during the Second Intifada, obstructed peri-urban Palestinian commuters from accessing commercial centers and border crossings, inflicting employment losses that were substantially offset by employment gains among their more centrally located Palestinian competitors. The findings suggest that marginal economic interventions, such as removing obstacles or paving roads, have a good chance of altering the spatial distribution of unemployment, but may struggle to reduce overall unemployment levels absent political reform.
05 难民危机和激进右翼政党如何塑造政党在移民方面的竞争？
【题目】
How the refugee crisis and radical right parties shape party competition on immigration?
【作者】
Theresa Gessler, Sophia Hunger
【摘要】
虽然政党竞争的结构演变缓慢，但类似危机的事件可以诱发政治议程的短期变化。这可能是由挑战者政党促成的，他们可能会从对他们自身问题的更多关注中受益。2015年的难民危机强烈影响了整个欧洲的公共辩论和选举结果，我们将通过主流政党对该危机的反应来研究这种转变的动态。具体来说，我们分析了在难民危机之前、期间和之后，各政党是如何改变其对移民问题的重视和立场的。我们的研究基于2013年至2017年期间奥地利、德国和瑞士的120,000份新闻稿的语料库。我们使用一个新字典来识别与移民有关的新闻稿，并估计政党立场。由此而产生的月度显著性和立场措施允许我们在密切的时间间隔内研究变化，为理清危机本身的影响与右翼政党的贡献提供了至关重要的细节。虽然我们提供的证据表明，在危机期间，所有政党对移民的关注都急剧增加，但是激进的右翼政党推动了主流政党的关注。主流政党对移民问题的关注在难民危机结束时有所下降，并且有有限的证据表明，各政党都在迎合激进右翼的立场。
While the structure of party competition evolves slowly, crisis-like events can induce short-term change to the political agenda. This may be facilitated by challenger parties who might benefit from increased attention to issues they own. We study the dynamic of such shifts through mainstream parties’ response to the 2015 refugee crisis, which strongly affected public debate and election outcomes across Europe. Specifically, we analyze how parties changed their issue emphasis and positions regarding immigration before, during, and after the refugee crisis. Our study is based on a corpus of 120,000 press releases between 2013 and 2017 from Austria, Germany, and Switzerland. We identify immigration-related press releases using a novel dictionary and estimate party positions. The resulting monthly salience and positions measures allow for studying changes in close time-intervals, providing crucial detail for disentangling the impact of the crisis itself and the contribution of right-wing parties. While we provide evidence that attention to immigration increased drastically for all parties during the crisis, radical right parties drove the attention of mainstream parties. However, the attention of mainstream parties to immigration decreased toward the end of the refugee crisis and there is limited evidence of parties accommodating the positions of the radical right.
06 突破点：利用机器学习揭示女性代表的群聚效应
【题目】
Point break: using machine learning to uncover a critical mass in women’s representation
【作者】
Kendall D. Funk, Hannah L. Paul, Andrew Q. Philips
【摘要】
数十年的研究一直在争论女性是否首先需要在立法中发挥“群聚效应”，然后才能有效影响立法结果。本研究有助于利用基于树的监督式机器学习研究女性立法代表数量的日益变化与政府在教育、医疗和国防三个政策领域的支出分配之间的关系。通过这项研究，我们发现女性代表的变化预测了这三个领域的支出。我们还根据女性代表与政府支出之间的关系是非线性的发现了群聚效应的依据。然而，在群聚效应之外，我们的研究还指出了女性代表的潜在群聚效应区间或极限点。由此，我们为这些结果如何启示未来研究中标准参数模型的使用提供了指引。
Decades of research has debated whether women first need to reach a “critical mass” in the legislature before they can effectively influence legislative outcomes. This study contributes to the debate using supervised tree-based machine learning to study the relationship between increasing variation in women’s legislative representation and the allocation of government expenditures in three policy areas: education, healthcare, and defense. We find that women’s representation predicts spending in all three areas. We also find evidence of critical mass effects as the relationships between women’s representation and government spending are nonlinear. However, beyond critical mass, our research points to a potential critical mass interval or critical limit point in women’s representation. We offer guidance on how these results can inform future research using standard parametric models.
07 政府控制的媒体如何通过框架转变政策态度？
【题目】
How government-controlled media shifts policy attitudes through framing?
【作者】
Jennifer Pan, Zijie Shao, Yiqing Xu
【摘要】
研究表明，政府控制的媒体是独裁政权塑造公众舆论的有效工具。当需要支持的独裁者改变在问题上的立场时，它是否仍然有效？现有的理论并没有为这个问题提供明确的答案，但我们却经常观察到独裁政府在需要对政策立场进行重大改变时，会利用政府媒体以新的方式制定政策。通过进行一项让受访者以电视新闻片段的形式接触政府控制的媒体，了解政权大幅改变其政策立场的问题的实验，我们发现：通过对同一问题进行不同的界定，政府控制的媒体会促使受访者的政策立场更接近该政权所支持的立场，而不管个人倾向如何。这一结果适用于国内和外交政策的相关问题，也适用于对态度的直接和综合衡量，并能够在表明立场后持续48小时。
Research shows that government-controlled media is an effective tool for authoritarian regimes to shape public opinion. Does government-controlled media remain effective when it is required to support changes in positions that autocrats take on issues? Existing theories do not provide a clear answer to this question, but we often observe authoritarian governments using government media to frame policies in new ways when significant changes in policy positions are required. By conducting an experiment that exposes respondents to government-controlled media—in the form of TV news segments—on issues where the regime substantially changed its policy positions, we find that by framing the same issue differently, government-controlled media moves respondents to adopt policy positions closer to the ones espoused by the regime regardless of individual predisposition. This result holds for domestic and foreign policy issues, for direct and composite measures of attitudes, and persists up to 48 hours after exposure.
08 外商直接投资的复杂依赖：网络理论与实证分析
【题目】
Complex dependence in foreign direct investment: network theory and empirical analysis
【作者】
John Schoeneman1, Boliang Zhu, Bruce A. Desmarais
【摘要】
我们建立了一个理论框架来解释外国直接投资（FDI）关系中的复杂依赖。传统的外国直接投资理论侧重于企业、行业、国家或二元层面的特征，以解释跨境资本流动。然而，当今经济全球化的特点是生产过程日益碎片化和分散化，从而导致生产关系之间的复杂依赖关系。因此，应将外国直接投资流入量视为一个网络，并将其理论化。具体来说，我们认为，外国直接投资关系是互惠和传递的。在使用加权网络的指数随机图模型（ERGM）测试了这些假设以及外国直接投资的传统协变量行列式后，我们发现，外国直接投资网络的确具有很强的互惠性和传递性。这一研究方法为跨境投资流动及其政治和经济后果，以及更广泛的全球动态开辟了新的视角。除了实质性发现之外，我们引入计数加权网络指数随机图模型的方法，也为政治学方法论作出了显著的贡献。
We develop a theoretical framework that accounts for complex dependence in foreign direct investment(FDI) relationships. Conventional theories of FDI focus on firm-, industry-, country-, or dyad-level characteristics to account for cross-border capital movements. Yet, today’s globalized economy is characterized by the increasing fragmentation and dispersion of production processes, which gives rise to complex dependence among production relationships. Consequently, FDI flows should be represented and theorized as a network. Specifically, we argue that FDI relationships are reciprocal and transitive. We test these hypotheses along with conventional covariate determinants of FDI using an exponential random graph model (ERGM) for weighted networks. We find that FDI networks exhibit strong reciprocity and transitivity. Our network approach to studying FDI provides new insights into cross-border investment flows and their political and economic consequences, and more generally the dynamics of globalization. In addition to our substantive findings, we offer a broad methodological contribution by introducing the ERGM for count-weighted networks in political science.
09 谈判结果与欧盟经济治理改革的成功
【题目】
Bargaining outcomes and success in EU economic governance reforms
【作者】
Fabio Franchino, Camilla Mariotto
【摘要】
我们评估了程序模型和谈判模型在预测1997年至2013年间欧盟（EU）经济治理改革结果方面的准确性。这些谈判的特点是失败的代价很高。我们确认了折衷模型的准确性和稳健性，但具有更高参考价值的程序模型表现良好，这表明错误估计无协议成本可能是其通常报告准确性较差的原因。然而，该模型对测量误差更敏感。我们还展示了这两种模型如何有助于理解谈判的成功，以及欧洲议会的条件性影响为何不应被忽视。最后，我们讨论了这些结果对我们理解欧盟的影响。
We assess the accuracy of procedural and bargaining models in predicting the outcomes of the reforms of the economic governance of the European Union (EU) that took place between 1997 and 2013. These negotiations were characterized by high costs of failure. We confirm the accuracy and robustness of the compromise model, but a procedural model with a costly reference point performs well, indicating that misestimation of the no-agreement cost may be a reason for its commonly reported poorer accuracy. However, this model is more sensitive to measurement errors. We also show how both models contribute to understanding bargaining success and how the conditional influence of the European Parliament should not be ignored. We conclude by discussing the implications of these results for our understanding of the EU.
10 对政策决定的强烈反对：公民如何对移民的示威权作出反应
【题目】
Backlash to policy decisions: how citizens react to immigrants’ rights to demonstrate
【作者】
Richard Traunmüller, Marc Helbling
【摘要】
重点关注移民政治融合的一个具体方面，即当局如何处理他们的示威权。我们在一项大规模调查实验中得出的结果表明，允许示威的自由主义决策导致公民态度出现两极分化：赞成许可的公民更加同情移民，而主张禁止的公民则对移民更加挑剔。这种对政策决定强烈反对的概念为有关移民态度的文献增加了一个新的视角，这些文献要么假定公众舆论与政策一致，要么完全忽略了反移民情绪的政治来源。通过探索政策决定的意外后果，我们提供了一种全新的视角，并展现出平衡公民意见和少数群体权利的固有困境。
Focusing on one specific aspect of immigrant political integration—how authorities deal with their political right to demonstrate—we show in a large-scale survey experiment that liberal policy decisions permitting demonstrations lead to a polarization in attitudes: citizens who agree with a permission become more sympathetic, while those in favor of banning become more critical of immigrants. This notion of opinion back-lash to policy decisions adds a new perspective to the literature on immigration attitudes which has either assumed a congruence between public opinion and policy or ignored political sources of anti-immigrant sentiment altogether. By exploring the unintended consequences of policy decisions, we provide an alter-native view and demonstrate the inherent dilemma of balancing citizen opinion and minority rights.
翻 译：田舒宁、祝嘉聪
校 对：田舒宁、祝嘉聪
相关阅读：
编辑：焦 磊
一审：李璐雅
二审：郭见田