国际视野 | Nature Climate Change-2019第11期

Volume 9 Issue

11,November 2019

Image:

Joe Klementovich

/Aurora Photos/Getty.

Cover Design: 

Tulsi Voralia.

输

River flows driven by plant CO2 responses

Climate change is expected to impact river flows globally through both precipitation responses to CO2 increases and plant-physiological changes that modify runoff, but the relative importance of these drivers for basin-wide hydrologic change remains uncertain. Here, using Earth System Model (ESM) experiments, Fowler et al. show that plant physiological responses to increased CO2, rather than atmospheric changes, are the primary drivers of mean, peak and low flows throughout the tropics.

译：河流流量受到植物二氧化碳响应的驱动

预计气候变化将通过降水对CO2增加的响应和改变径流的植物生理变化来影响全球的河流流量，但是这些驱动因素对整个流域水文变化的相对重要性仍然不确定。在这里，Fowler等人使用地球系统模型（ESM）实验，研究表明，植物对CO2增加而不是大气变化的生理响应是整个热带地区平均流量、峰值流量和低流量的主要驱动因素。

See Fowler et al. 

Editorial

Editorial | 29 October 2019

Scientific uncertainty

The broad-scale impacts and mechanisms of physical climate change are scientifically well-understood, but specific estimates of these impacts are associated with uncertainty that is challenging to communicate. How scientists communicate uncertainty affects public trust and acceptance of the research.

译：科学的不确定性

科学地理解了自然气候变化的广泛影响和机制，但是对这些影响的具体估计与不确定性相关，而这些不确定性难以表述。科学家如何传达不确定性会影响公众对研究的信任和接受度。

Comment

Comment | 28 October 2019

A new generation of emissions scenarios should cover blind spots in the carbon budget space

Future emissions scenarios for the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report should explore the carbon budget space in a systematic manner, which would be robust to the updates of latest climate science, so that policy implications can be adequately assessed.

译：新一代排放情景应涵盖碳预算空间中的盲点

IPCC第六次评估报告的未来排放情景应以系统的方式探索碳预算空间，这对于最新气候科学的更新将是有力的，以便对政策影响进行充分评估。

Shinichiro Fujimori, Joeri Rogelj[…] & Keywan Riahi

Research Highlights

Research Highlight | 29 October 2019

Salty, gassy wetlands

译：咸水及气体排放的湿地

Alyssa Findlay

Research Highlight | 29 October 2019

Counting the future now

译：未来对于当前的贴现

Adam Yeeles

Research Highlight | 29 October 2019

Vietnam coastline threats

译：越南海岸线威胁

Baird Langenbrunner

Research Highlight | 29 October 2019

Effect of female representation

译：女性代表的影响

Jenn Richler

News & Views

News & Views | 14 October 2019

Climate uncertainty communication

The consequences of global warming will be dire, but the full extent of these effects on society is unknown and includes uncertainties. Research now suggests that how scientists communicate about the uncertainty over such climate change impacts can influence the public’s trust and acceptance of this information.

译：气候不确定性交流

全球变暖的后果将是可怕的，但这些影响对社会的全部影响尚不清楚，其中包括不确定性。现在的研究表明，科学家如何就此类气候变化影响的不确定性进行交流会影响公众对此信息的信任和接受。

Emily H. Ho & David V. Budescu

News & Views | 30 September 2019

Forecasting global coral bleaching

Predicting coral bleaching is critical to better manage and preserve coral reefs from global warming. An impressive coordination of surveys across oceans now offers new metrics to help to predict coral bleaching events on a global scale.

译：预测全球珊瑚白化

预测珊瑚褪色对于更好地管理和保护珊瑚礁免受全球变暖损害至关重要。一项重要的海洋调查协调工作现在提供了新的指标，以帮助预测全球范围内的珊瑚褪色事件。

Mathieu Pernice & David J. Hughes

News & Views | 21 October 2019

Arctic climate resilience

The effects of global warming are felt earlier in Arctic regions than elsewhere in the world. Now research shows that Arctic marine food webs can adapt to climate change — but the study authors warn that this impression of resilience may be false in the long term.

译：北极气候恢复力

在北极地区，全球变暖的影响要早于世界其他地区。现在的研究表明，北极海洋食物网可以适应气候变化，但是研究作者警告说，从长远来看，这种适应可能是有限的。

Johanna Yletyinen

News & Views | 21 October 2019

Arctic loses carbon as winters wane

Warming in the Arctic is causing soils to decompose more rapidly, even during winter. Now, estimates of winter carbon dioxide loss indicate that it can offset carbon gains during the growing season, meaning that the region is a source of carbon.

译：随着冬天的消逝，北极地区的碳损失

即使在冬季，北极地区的变暖也使土壤更快地分解。现在，对冬季二氧化碳损失的估计表明，它可以抵消生长季节的碳汇，这意味着该地区是碳源。

John L. Campbell

News & Views | 29 October 2019

Engineering challenges of warming

Observations reveal recent Arctic warming, but future societal impacts are poorly understood. Now research identifies potential abrupt thaw-driven soil moisture shifts, with consequences for northern development including more intense wildfires and rainfall.

译：升温的工程挑战

观测结果显示了近期北极的变暖，但人们对未来的社会影响知之甚少。现在的研究确定了潜在的突然解冻驱动的土壤湿度变化，这对北部地区的发展产生了影响，包括更强烈的野火和降雨。

Barret L. Kurylyk

Perspectives

Perspective | 28 October 2019

Towards more predictive and interdisciplinary climate change ecosystem experiments

Ecosystem response to climate change will vary in amplitude and dynamically, which may not be captured in current experimental design. This Perspective presents experimental design improvements to better predict responses and thus facilitate understanding of future impacts.

译：进行更具预测性和跨学科的气候变化生态系统实验

生态系统对气候变化的响应将在幅度上动态变化，这在当前的实验设计中可能无法捕获。本“观点”提出了实验设计方面的改进，以更好地预测响应，从而促进对未来影响的理解。

Francois Rineau, Robert Malina[…] & Jaco Vangronsveld

Review Articles

Review Article | 21 October 2019

Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5 °C world

Transformation of the land sector is required to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5 °C. Here, modelled emission pathways and mitigation strategies are reviewed. A land-sector roadmap of priority measures and key regions is presented.

译：土地部门对1.5°C世界的贡献

为了实现《巴黎协定》将升温限制在1.5°C以内的目标，必须对土地部门进行改造。在这里，审查了模型化的排放途径和缓解策略。提出了优先措施和关键区域的土地部门路线图。

Stephanie Roe, Charlotte Streck[…] & Deborah Lawrence

Letters

Letter | 29 October 2019

The public costs of climate-induced financial instability

Increasingly, financial institutions will be exposed to climate risks that will exacerbate the negative economic impacts of climate change. An agent-based integrated assessment model is used to analyse climate impacts on the global banking system, finding an increase in banking crises and public bailout costs.

译：气候导致的金融不稳定的公共成本

金融机构将越来越多地面临气候风险，这将加剧气候变化的负面经济影响。基于代理的综合评估模型用于分析气候对全球银行系统的影响，发现银行危机和公共救助成本增加。

Francesco Lamperti, Valentina Bosetti[…] & Massimo Tavoni

Letter | 21 October 2019

Enhanced equatorial warming causes deep-tropical contraction and subtropical monsoon shift

Global warming projections exhibit a contracted intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and an expanded Hadley cell. Here, equatorial Pacific warming is shown to contract seasonal ITCZ migration and counteract Hadley cell expansion, leading to an equatorward shift in the Asian subtropical monsoon.

译：赤道变暖加剧导致深热带收缩和亚热带季风转变

全球变暖预测显示出收缩的热带辐合带（ITCZ）和扩张的哈德利小区。在这里，赤道太平洋变暖显示出会收缩ITCZ的季节性迁移并抵消Hadley膨胀，从而导致亚洲亚热带季风向赤道移动。

Wenyu Zhou, Shang-Ping Xie & Da Yang

Letter | 07 October 2019

Saxitoxin and tetrodotoxin bioavailability increases in future oceans

Ocean warming and acidification will affect the structure and bioavailability of biomolecules. The toxic form of two neurotoxins will increase with climate change, presenting an ecotoxicology risk with global hotspots as exemplified by saxitoxin toxicity in Alaskan butter clam.

译：未来海洋中毒素和河豚毒素的生物利用度增加

海洋变暖和酸化将影响生物分子的结构和生物利用度。两种神经毒素的有毒形式会随着气候变化而增加，从而对全球热点地区产生生态毒理学风险，例如阿拉斯加黄油蛤中的毒素毒性就是例证。

C. C. Roggatz, N. Fletcher[…] & J. D. Hardege

Letter | 30 September 2019

Temperature patterns and mechanisms influencing coral bleaching during the 2016 El Niño

Improved predictions of coral bleaching are critical. In a coordinated global survey effort during the 2016 El Niño, time-series patterns of peak hot temperatures, cool period durations and temperature bimodality were found to be better predictors of coral bleaching than common threshold metrics.

译：2016年厄尔尼诺现象的温度模式和影响珊瑚褪色的机制

改善珊瑚褪色的预测至关重要。在2016年厄尔尼诺事件期间的一项全球协调调查工作中，与常见阈值指标相比，峰值高温、凉爽时段持续时间和温度双峰性的时间序列模式被发现是珊瑚褪色的更好预测指标。

Tim R. McClanahan, Emily S. Darling[…] & Julien Leblond

Letter | 21 October 2019

Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region

Winter warming in the Arctic will increase the CO2 flux from soils. A pan-Arctic analysis shows a current loss of 1,662 TgC per year over the winter, exceeding estimated carbon uptake in the growing season; projections suggest a 17% increase under RCP 4.5 and a 41% increase under RCP 8.5 by 2100.

译：在北部多年冻土地区冬季观察到大量的CO2损失

北极的冬季变暖将增加土壤中的CO2通量。一项全北极分析显示，当前每年冬季损失1,662 TgC，超过了生长季节估计的碳吸收量。预测表明，到2100年，在RCP 4.5下将增加17％，在RCP 8.5下将增加41％。

Susan M. Natali, Jennifer D. Watts[…] & Donatella Zona

Letter | 29 October 2019

Abrupt changes across the Arctic permafrost region endanger northern development

Permafrost thaw due to rising temperatures will impact soil hydrology in the Arctic. Abrupt changes in soil moisture and land–atmosphere processes may alter the bearing capacity of soil and increase susceptibility to wildfires, with consequences for adapting engineering systems in the region.

译：北极多年冻土地区的突然变化危及北部地区的发展

由于温度上升而造成的永久冻土融化将影响北极的土壤水文。土壤水分和陆地-大气过程的突然变化可能会改变土壤的承载力并增加对野火的敏感性，从而影响该地区工程系统的适应。

B. Teufel & L. Sushama

Articles

Article | 14 October 2019

Acknowledging uncertainty impacts public acceptance of climate scientists’ predictions

This study shows that expressing uncertainty about best- and worst-case effects of climate change on sea-level rise increases trust in climate scientists and message acceptance but not when the full extent of inevitable uncertainty due to unpredictable storm surges is also acknowledged.

译：承认不确定性影响公众对气候科学家预测的接受

这项研究表明，表达关于气候变化对海平面上升的最佳和最坏影响的不确定性，可以增加对气候科学家的信任和信息接受度。但是当承认由于不可预测的风暴潮而导致的不可避免的不确定性的全部程度时，则不能。

Lauren C. Howe, Bo MacInnis[…] & Robert Socolow

Article | 21 October 2019

Ecological resilience of Arctic marine food webs to climate change

The resilience of a marine food web to climate change is investigated through a combination of multiple and nested species interactions. The Kongsfjorden food web adapts and maintains core ecological processes during change, with increasing dominance of Atlantic species boosting resilience.

译：北极海洋食物网对气候变化的生态恢复力

通过多种和嵌套物种相互作用的组合，研究了海洋食物网对气候变化的适应力。Kongsfjorden的食物网在变化过程中适应并维持了核心生态过程，随着大西洋物种的优势地位不断增强，弹性也得到增强。

Gary P. Griffith, Haakon Hop[…] & Geir Wing Gabrielsen

Article | 21 October 2019

The effect of plant physiological responses to rising CO2 on global streamflow

Climate change is expected to impact river flows. Here, it is shown that plant physiological responses to increased CO2, rather than atmospheric changes, are the primary drivers of mean, peak and low flows throughout the tropics.

译：植物对CO2上升的生理反应对全球河流的影响

预计气候变化将影响河流流量。在此显示，植物对CO2增加而不是大气变化的生理反应是整个热带地区平均、峰值和低流量的主要驱动因素。

Megan D. Fowler, Gabriel J. Kooperman[…] & Michael S. Pritchard

Article | 07 October 2019

Reduced resilience as an early warning signal of forest mortality

Predicting mortality in forests is challenging because its underlying causes are spatially varied and not well known. Reduced resilience detected from remotely sensed time series of vegetation dynamics can serve as an effective early warning signal to indicate the potential for forest mortality.

译：复原力下降是森林死亡的预警信号

预测森林中的死亡率是具有挑战性的，因为其根本原因在空间上是变化的，并且未知的。从遥感的植被动态时间序列中检测到的复原力下降可作为有效的预警信号，以表明森林死亡的可能性。

Yanlan Liu, Mukesh Kumar[…] & Amilcare Porporato

Article | 07 October 2019

Climate change causes functionally colder winters for snow cover-dependent organisms

The subnivium—the space between snowpack and the ground—is an insulating refuge from winter cold. This study predicts that climate warming decreases the subnivium’s seasonal duration yet increases snow-free days with frozen ground, making winter functionally colder for subnivium-dependent life.

译：气候变化导致对于依赖积雪的生物在功能上更加寒冷的冬天

亚雪层（积雪和地面之间的空间）是冬季寒冷的避难所。这项研究预测，气候变暖减少了亚雪层的季节持续时间，但增加了具有结冰地面的无雪天数，从而使冬季对于亚雪层依赖的生物而言功能性变冷。

Likai Zhu, Anthony R. Ives[…] & Volker C. Radeloff

来源：

Nature Climate Change

说明：

小编翻译了部分题目及摘要，专业能力有限，若有不当之处，还请读者指正！

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审核：王冠  王波涛  梁龙武

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