美联储宣布加息 （公告全文）
美联储宣布加息 （公告全文）
美东时间9月26日周三下午2点，美联储货币政策委员会FOMC 宣布加息25个基点， 将联邦基金目标利率区间上调至2%至2.2%，创2008年以来最高，符合市场预期。市场预计今年12月份还会有一次加息， 2019年估计加息三次， 2020年加息一次。
美联储加息是否会导致贸易战加剧？贸易战会因此演变成汇率战？变成货币战？
以下是美联储货币政策委员会的公告全文
（中文翻译仅供参考， 英文后附）
自联邦公开市场委员会8月开会以来收到的资料表明，劳动力市场继续得到加强，经济活动以强劲的速度增长。最近几个月的平均就业增长强劲，失业率一直保持在较低水平。家庭支出和企业固定投资增长强劲。在12个月的基础上，除食品和能源以外的其他物品的总体通货膨胀和通货膨胀仍然接近2%。总的来说，长期通货膨胀预期指标没有什么变化。
该委员会根据其法定任务，力求促进最大限度的就业和价格稳定。委员会期望，联邦基金利率目标范围的进一步逐步增加将与经济活动的持续扩大、强劲的劳动力市场条件以及委员会在中期内对称的2%目标附近的通货膨胀相一致。经济前景的风险看来大致平衡。
考虑到已经实现和预期的劳动力市场条件和通货膨胀，委员会决定将联邦基金利率的目标范围提高到2%至2.25%。
在确定未来调整联邦基金比率目标范围的时间和规模时，委员会将根据其最大就业目标和对称的2%通货膨胀目标，评估已实现和预期的经济条件。这一评估将考虑到广泛的信息，包括劳动力市场条件的衡量、通货膨胀压力指标和通货膨胀预期，以及关于金融和国际发展情况的解读。
联邦公开市场委员会货币政策行动的投票结果如下：主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔；副主席约翰·威廉斯；托马斯·巴金；拉斐尔·博斯特；拉尔·布雷纳德；理查德·H·克拉利达；埃丝特·J·梅斯特；和兰德尔·克洛斯。
以下是英文全文
Press Release
September 26, 2018
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Household spending and business fixed investment have grown strongly. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remain near 2 percent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.
In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; John C. Williams, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.
美联储还同时公布了美国经济预测和和联邦基金的目标利率预测（如下文）
美联储长期预测美国经济增长率维持在1.8％不变。目前的长期增长预测符合6月份的预测。美联储正密切关注经济增长的步伐和通胀的可能性。它还必须权衡贸易动荡对中国和其他国家的可能影响，这可能会减缓全球增长。
许多经济学家认为明年及以后的经济增长将逐渐减弱。但它在短期内应该是强劲的。亚特兰大联邦储备银行上个月预测，从7月到9月，GDP将增长5％，而第二季度则增长4.1％。在近期内，美联储略微上调了预期。它的2018年增长预测为3.1％，上升0.3个百分点。它对明年的预测为2.5％，上涨0.1个百分点。它对2020年的预测不变，为2％。
September 26, 2018
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the September 25-26 FOMC meeting
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT
The attached table and charts released on Wednesday summarize the economic projections and the target federal funds rate projections made by Federal Open Market Committee participants for the September 25-26 meeting.
The table will be incorporated into a summary of economic projections released with the minutes of the September 25-26 meeting. Summaries of economic projections are released quarterly.
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