孙成昊：US should recalibrate its China policy wisely

CISS 清华大学战略与安全研究中心 2022-08-05

Sun Chenghao

Research Associate of CISS, Tsinghua University

The China-US relationship is now standing at a critical juncture. Since Joe Biden took office, instead of correcting his predecessor’s wrong policy toward China, the US government has inherited the “great power competition” strategy and perceived China as its strategic competitor. In particular, the Biden administration has framed its “Indo-Pacific strategy” as an attempt to shape the strategic environment of China. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s upcoming speech to outline US policy towards China will unlikely offer an olive branch.

Even after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US does not believe the crisis can fundamentally change the dynamics of the US strategic shift towards the Asia-Pacific. The US has caused a rift in Europe-Russia relations, and most US elites believe that the US has moved into a more favorable strategic position in trilateral relations.

It seems that the US is confident that it can balance the Europe and Asia-Pacific theaters at the same time. In the fact sheet of the National Defense Strategy report released in March this year, the US Department of Defense clearly prioritizes China and the Asia-Pacific ahead of Russia and Europe, even in the face of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which had been dragging on for more than a month at that time.

The US also believes that there are much stronger reasons to engage Europe ideologically, in order to help deal with China. The US will continue to join hands with Europe to push forward the “Indo-Pacific strategy” to balance China as well. This is likely to further form a confrontation of the US and Europe against China and Russia.

Meanwhile, by strengthening its strategic deployment in the Asia-Pacific region and seeking as many allies as possible, the US hopes to encircle China and balance China’s rise. In the narrative of strategic competition with China, the US has been playing up tensions, stirring up the security situation and casting the shadow of a Cold War over the region.

For instance, the Biden administration is taking a comprehensive approach to hedging against China’s development. At the security level, the US has promoted the building of a latticework of coalitions to strengthen the connectivity of allies in and outside the region, including the Quad and AUKUS. On the economic front, the Biden administration is about to launch the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, which might be combined with Building Back Better World to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

The Biden administration’s policy suggests that rolling back China’s regional influence with allies and partners has become a core goal of its “Indo-Pacific strategy.” Yet, there is a serious conflict between the US strategy to hedge against China and its regional strategy to gain advantage, which will only lead to a lose-lose outcome.

There is no denying that China-US relations are facing unprecedented challenges. The US should understand that stable bilateral relations are not only beneficial for the two countries, but also for the region and the world at large. It is important for the US to learn from the history of bilateral exchanges over the past 50 years, and recalibrate its China policy wisely.

First, despite ups and downs, China-US relations have always moved forward steadily. Neither a hot war nor a cold war broke out between the two countries in the past five decades. China and the US have also gained valuable experience in dealing with each other through active interactions, including attaching great importance to the bilateral relationship by placing it at the top of the overall diplomatic agenda, accommodating each other’s vital interests and respecting each other in the political field.

Second, the interests of China and the US are deeply intertwined, and decoupling is unrealistic. Over the past 50 years, the two countries have maintained close exchanges in trade, finance, culture and other fields, which forms the solid foundation for the stability of bilateral relations. In the economic and trade field, China-US trade volume has continued to rise despite the impact of the pandemic. In the financial sector, the China hardliners in the US advocate tighter financial sanctions and further capital decoupling, but US enterprises still see China’s financial opening as their most significant external opportunity.

Third, China and the US share a common understanding on managing risks and crises, which has contributed to the steady and sustained development of bilateral relations. The two countries have treasured all sorts of dialogues in the face of crises in order to reduce mutual suspicion and miscalculation. At the same time, the coordination on risk management has gone beyond the bilateral level and successfully helped the world deal with terrorism, financial crises and other major international risks.

Most importantly, unlike the Cold War era, third party actors are stronger as forces for peace. The Biden administration’s attempt to hedge against China is not welcome by regional countries. Economic globalization has made the world’s industrial chain closely linked. No country is willing to take sides between China and the US, or to engage in the great power competition which make them a tool of US strategic rivalry. This will to a large extent shape the future direction of China-US relations.

(The author is an assistant research fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy, Tsinghua University. The article reflects the author's opinion, and not necessarily the views of People's Daily.)