【连载】人民币国际化有利于实现“五通”目标 | 《人民币国际化报告2015》（28）
人民币国际化是中国人民大学国际货币研究所(IMI)的重点研究领域。自2012年研究所首次发布《人民币国际化报告2012》并首创人民币国际化指数（RII）以来，已经连续三年编写并发布《人民币国际化报告》。尽管时间不长，报告因其独立性、客观性和决策参考性，得到了社会各界尤其是政策部门的高度关注。同时报告还被译成英文和日文同步发布，在国内外理论与实务界均产生较大影响。《人民币国际化报告2015》主题为“一带一路”建设中的货币战略。《IMI研报》栏目将于每周四连续刊登《人民币国际化报告2015》节选系列文章，以飨读者。
本文系《人民币国际化报告2015》系列二十八：人民币国际化有利于实现“五通”目标。在这一系列中，作者认为，作为“一带一路”战略的发起国，中国正在推动实施的人民币国际化进程将直接加强沿线各国之间的货币流通，对实现“五通”目标、深化区域经济合作发挥关键的积极作用。
“五通”是“一带一路”建设的核心目标。基础设施建设、资源合作、贸易、投资等具体的区域经济合作内容都离不开货币，所以货币相通是不容忽视的重要方面。作为“一带一路”战略的发起国，中国正在推动实施的人民币国际化进程将直接加强沿线各国之间的货币流通，对实现“五通”目标、深化区域经济合作发挥关键的积极作用。
中国与丝路沿线国家在贸易合作方面增长迅速。2013年，中国与中亚四国（中亚五国中除土库曼斯坦）贸易额达402亿美元，比2012年增长13%。其中，中哈贸易额达286亿美元，中乌贸易额首次突破40亿美元大关，增幅分别为11.3%和58.3%。目前，中国已成为俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、土库曼斯坦的最大贸易伙伴，乌兹别克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦的第二大贸易伙伴，塔吉克斯坦的第三大贸易伙伴，也是中亚油气资源最大的购买国。同时，中国也是乌兹别克斯坦第一大、吉尔吉斯斯坦第二大投资来源国。此外，中国与丝路西端欧盟的贸易迅速增加，2013年达到5590.6亿美元。除此之外，区域其他国家之间贸易也十分频繁。随着“一带一路”建设的逐步推进，区域内贸易合作有望进一步提升，需要充足的货币满足贸易融资和流动性的需求。
人民币国际化进程，可以为区域各国贸易发展提供充足的流动性支持，有助于“一带一路”贸易畅通目标的实现。首先，人民币国际化过程中伴随着巨大的 资本流出，沿线各国企业不仅有机会在对华贸易活动中获得人民币贸易融资支持，也有机会快速积累一定规模的人民币资产，为进一步扩大区域内贸易合作创造良好条件。第二，中国已经与沿线多个国家在央行层面上签署双边货币互换协议，相关国家可以通过备用信贷渠道取得人民币资金，注入本国金融体系，使得国内机构或企业可以方便地借到人民币，用于支付从中国的进口，为双边贸易合作与发展提供便利。第三，人民币离岸市场的发展便利了境外人民币使用，同时离岸人民币存款在国际银行运作下倍数扩张，为沿线各国对华贸易发展创造充足的境外人民币流动性。可见，人民币国际化带来丰富的人民币流动性，可以促进区域贸易的发展。
国际贸易计价货币的选择受货币供给波动、汇率波动、货币交易成本、利率收益等多种因素影响，其中最重要的影响素就是使用这种货币的成本。世界市场上最重要的贸易计价货币是美元。究其原因，美元作为关键国际货币，掌握着原油等大宗商品的定价权，国际贸易以美元计价结算具有交易成本低廉的优势。其次，美元是一种优质的外汇储备，美国的国家实力领先世界上其他所有国家，经济政治发展稳定。此外，美元的汇价相对比较稳定，币值坚挺，并且国内利率较高，持有美元的资本收益也较高。尽管美国贸易份额逐年下降，早已不具备战后初期那样的绝对优势地位，但美元仍然是国际贸易最广泛使用的第三方货币，在贸易计价结算中继续处于绝对优势地位。
2008年金融危机之后，美元汇率大幅波动。美联储的多轮量化宽松政策，致使美元不断贬值。国际贸易双方使用美元计价结算不得不面临很大的汇率波动风险。而美国国内经济刺激政策导致其经济政治形势不稳定，资产收益率下降，则意味着官方外汇储备或私人部门资产配置中的美元份额同样面临资本损失的风险。至此，人们对国际贸易使用第三方货币计价的危害性有了更加深刻的认知。
中国是“一带一路”沿线国家的重要贸易伙伴，区域内贸易如果以人民币计价结算，可以有效规避使用第三方货币的风险。近些年来以人民币作为贸易计价货币的优势越来越明显，因而得到了越来越多的国际认可。人民币币值稳定，为其扩大国际使用提供了良好的国际声誉；人民币国际使用的扩大，尤其是以人民币作为计价和结算货币，可以规避其他货币汇率波动的风险；中国的资产收益率保持在较高水平，持有人民币也可以获得可观的资产增值；中国日益强大的经济实力也为人民币提供信誉保障。因此，越来越多的境内外企业开始尝试用人民币进行贸易计价结算。《中国银行人民币国际化业务白皮书（2014年度）》的调研结果表明，受访企业在跨境交易中实际使用人民币的水平较去年有了明显提高。境外企业进出口过程中使用人民币结算比例超过15%的企业占比达26%，与2013年相比提升了10个百分点。
“一带一路”建设中，涉及很多关系国计民生的重大支撑项目，其中更是以基础设施建设为主要内容。这些重大支撑项目是一个国家提升自身发展潜力、改善人民生活水平的基础，直接影响国民经济的发展。重大支撑项目投资规模大，建设周期长，往往具有直接经济效应不明显、间接效应强大却难以估算的特点，具有公共物品属性。以高铁为例，通过票价收回建设成本的难度极高，但是高铁带动沿线人员、技术等要素流动，增进了经贸联系，并将产生促进地区科技水平提升、对外贸易额增加、会展旅游等服务业发展等一系列连锁经济效应。
人民币国际化有利于设施联通目标的实现，为“一带一路”建设夯实必要的物质基础。中国在基础设施建设方面具有独特的优势。可以通过成立新型的多边金融机构（如亚洲基础设施投资银行、丝路基金等）动员全球资源，并通过人民币债券、贷款、直接投资、项目融资等多种形式为重大支撑项目提供金融支持。从而将中国基础设施建设的经验和成果推广到国外，增进双边经济合作，提升中国在“一带一路”沿线的国际形象。此外，以重大项目融资作为切入点，也能够加强我国与“一带一路”沿线各国高层往来、民间交流，提升区域经济一体化程度。
“一带一路”沿线国家的经济发展水平不同，金融开放程度不一，市场和制度差异更是广泛存在。如何才能进一步降低交易成本，建立起日益紧密的经贸联系，提高区域经济一体化程度？这是“一带一路”建设所追求的终极目标，也是不容回避的严峻挑战。从历史经验来看，构建经济金融安全锚是区域经济合作中重要的一环。
中国作为世界第二大经济体，与“一带一路”沿线国家相比，国家风险较低，贸易金融发展水平较高。若人民币可以在“一带一路”上全方位地发挥贸易计价结算、金融交易和外汇储备职能，则表明中国为沿线国家提供了新的国际货币及其风险管理机制，构建了经济金融的安全锚，为维护区域经济和金融稳定做出重大贡献。因此，人民币有望成为破解区域合作“困境”的最优选择。
具体而言，第一，人民币作为区域性公共货币，其使用规模的扩大可以降低区域间贸易的交易成本；同时，区域内各国将人民币作为本国货币的显性或隐性参考标准，减轻本国货币受其他货币剧烈波动的影响，起到促进本国币值稳定的作用。第二，中国国际地位的提升，对内可以在区域内协商各国避免出现“以邻为壑”的货币政策，对外可以代表区域在世界上发出声音，维护本地区的利益。第三，人民币国际地位的提升，增强了区域内各国在国际贸易中的“讨价还价”能力，提升了区域整体在国际贸易谈判上的话语权。第四，中国在人民币国际化过程中积累的货币管理经验，也为区域各国的风险管理机制的形成提供了经验；同时，加强区域内金融监管合作，搭建区域金融风险监测预警系统，对维护区域金融稳定有积极意义。总之，人民币国际化水平的提高及其在区域内使用比例的上升，将在提供公共货币、便利贸易合作的同时，搭建起区域经济金融安全锚，为推动区域经济一体化进程发挥积极作用。
英文内容如下
The development of One Road and One Belt has five goals and these goals are the core of One Road and One Belt project. Fundamental infrastructure construction, resource cooperation, trade and investment are all related to international currency. Therefore, as the founder of the One Road and One Belt, China should promote RMB internationalization which coincides with the development of One Road and One Belt.
I.RMB Internationalization Provides Sufficient Liquidity for Trade
The trade between China and countries along the One Belt And One Road is increasingly growing. In 2013, the trade volume between China and central Asian countries (which excludes the Turkmenistan) reached 40.2 billion dollar which increased by 13% than last year. Among them, the trade volume between China and Kazakhstan reached 28.6 billion dollar and the bilateral trade between China and Uzbekistan exceeded 4 billion dollar, an annual increase of 11.3% and 58.3% respectively. So far, China has become the biggest trading partner of Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, the second biggest trading partner of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan and the third biggest Tajikistan. Also, China is the biggest buyer of central Asian countries’ gas and oil resource. At the same time, China is the biggest investor Uzbekistan and the second biggest investor in Kyrgyzstan. Besides, the bilateral trade volume between China and European countries in western Silk Road reached $559.06 billion in 2013. With the gradual development of One Belt And One Road, the regional trade is expected to keep growing which would give rise to a higher demand for trade finance and liquidity.
RMB internationalization promotes the development of One Belt And One Road by providing adequate liquidity. First of all, during the process of RMB internationalization, countries along the One Belt And One Road not only have access to RMB trade finance but also can accumulate RMB assets, which builds the solid foundation for regional trade. Secondly, China has signed currency swap agreements with several countries along the One Belt And One Road. Such swap agreements allows these countries to lend RMB loan to domestic firms to pay for goods imported from China.
II.RMB Internationalization can effectively reduce the risk of using third-party currency
The choice of international settlement currencies are determined by currency supply fluctuation, exchange rate fluctuation, transaction cost and interest rate. Among them, the most important factor is the transaction cost. As we all know, U.S dollar is the dominant international settlement currency and the three reasons for its status. First of all, since most of the commodities are priced in U.S. dollar, using U.S. dollar for international trade settlement can reduce transaction cost. Secondly, U.S. dollar is also the dominant reserve currency for most countries. Thirdly, the exchange rate of U.S. dollar is relatively stable and the capital gain of holding U.S dollar is high. Therefore, U.S. dollar is still the most widely used settlement currency for international trade.
However, after 2008 financial crisis, the volatility of U.S. dollar has dramatically increased. Especially, the launch of QE exacerbates the devaluation of U.S. dollar. Thus, both trade parties face more volatile if they use U.S. dollar for settlement. Moreover, U.S. `s economic and political instability and the decline of asset return also increase the capital loss of holding of U.S. In this case, firms become more aware of the risk of using third-party currency for trade settlement.
Since China is an important trade partner for countries along the One Belt And One Road, using RMB as settlement currency could effectively reduce exchange rate risk. First of all, China`s sustained economic growth and RMB`s stable exchange rate .. Secondly, the wide use of RMB as settlement currency can reduce the settlement risk. Thirdly, holding RMB is expected to receive high capital gain since the return rate of RMB asset remains high. Therefore, more and more enterprises begin to use RMB as settlement currency. According to Bank of China`s RMB Internationalization White Paper 2014, RMB is more widely used as settlement currency among interviews enterprises.
III.RMB Internationalization provide financial support for Infrastructure Projects
The construction of One Belt And One Road consists of many infrastructure construction projects which benefit the economic growth and social welfare. However, such projects require huge investment and long period. Moreover, since the welfare effects of such projects are strong but hard to measure, these projects are considered as public goods. Take the high speed railway for instance. Operating a high speed railway is unlikely to make profit by merely relying on ticket income. However, the construction of high speed railway would have a considerable positive spillover effect on economic growth and regional trade which improve social welfare.
RMB Internationalization benefits the connection of infrastructure construction. Since China has distinct advantages in infrastructure construction, China can build up multilateral financial institutes (such as Silk Road Fund) to make full use of global resource and provide financial aid to infrastructure construction projects.
IV. Providing Public Currency and Risk Management
The economic development, financial openness and market infrastructure vary among countries along the One Belt And One Road. Therefore, the one of the goals of One Belt And One Road is to reduce regional trade transaction cost as well as improve regional economic integration. As we can see from past, setting a financial safety anchor can achieve this goal.
As the second largest economy, China has a relative low sovereign risk and higher trade and financial development. If RMB can serve as the international currency for countries along the One Belt And One Road, then China can provide a new system of international currency and risk management and set a financial safety anchor for regional economics and financial stability. Therefore, using RMB as a regional currency benefits regional economic cooperation.
Specifically, RMB benefits the regional economic cooperation in four ways. First of all, widely using RMB as a regional currency can reduce the transaction cost of regional trade and lower the exchange rate volatility of these countries` home currency. Secondly, using RMB as a regional currency can avoid beggar-thy-neighbor monetary policy and also make the voice of this area heard throughout the world. Thirdly, the development of RMB internationalization strengthens these countries` bargain power in international trade. Fourthly, using RMB as regional currency can unify regional financial regulation and build a regional financial risk monitoring system. In sum, with the development of RMB internationalization, RMB can not only provide public currency and trade convenience but also promote the regional economic cooperation.
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中国人民大学国际货币研究所（IMI）成立于2009年12月20日，是专注于货币金融理论、政策与战略研究的非营利性学术研究机构和新型专业智库。
中国人民银行副行长潘功胜与诺贝尔经济学奖得主Robert A. Mundell出任IMI顾问委员会主任，委员包括Edmond Alphandery、Yaseen Anwar、Steve H. Hanke、李若谷、李扬、任志刚、苏宁、王兆星、夏斌等9位国内外著名经济学家或政策领导人；中国人民银行副行长陈雨露出任学术委员会主任，委员会由45位来自国内外科研院所、政府部门或金融机构的著名专家学者组成。
自2012年起，研究所开始每年定期发布《人民币国际化报告》，重点探讨人民币国际化进程中面临的重大理论与政策问题。报告还被译成英文、日文、韩文、俄文、阿拉伯文等版本并在北京、香港、纽约、法兰克福、伦敦、新加坡和阿拉木图等地发布，引起国内外理论与实务界的广泛关注。
迄今为止，研究所已形成“宏观经济理论与政策”、“商业银行与财富管理”、“金融稳定与金融监管”、“人民币国际化与国际金融”、“互联网金融与资产证券化”等五个研究方向，并定期举办货币金融圆桌会议、大金融思想沙龙、燕山论坛、麦金农大讲坛、陶湘国际金融讲堂等具有重要学术影响力的高层次系列论坛或讲座。主要学术产品包括IMI大金融书系、《国际货币评论》（中文月刊&英文季刊）、《IMI研究动态》（周刊）、《国际货币金融每日综述》（日刊）等。国际货币网：www.imi.org.cn
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