海外之声 | 史蒂夫汉克：库德洛必须给特朗普恶补贸易知识（海外之声）
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观点速递
本文作者是IMI国际委员、约翰霍普金斯大学教授史蒂夫· 汉克。本文原文发表于2018年3月15日福布斯网站（Forbes.com），《福布斯杂志》是一个可靠的商业新闻和金融信息的主要来源。
作者指出库德洛是富有经验的经济学家，他主张美国的贸易赤字不是由“不公平”的贸易行为造成的，背后元凶正是美国自己本身。库德洛应该明确表示，对华加征关税，挑衅北京，或许可以减少美中的双边贸易赤字，但不会扭转美国的整体贸易逆差。由贸易特性决定的美国整体贸易赤字将由其他国家来维持。
中文译文如下：
库德洛必须给特朗普恶补贸易知识
新一任“经济沙皇”反对保护主义
史蒂夫·汉克
翻译：刘家志
审校：陆可凡
新任美国国家经济会议主席拉里·库德洛和我有着多年交情。我们在里根总统第一任期内合作过无数次。当时，库德洛是白宫管理和预算局的助理局长，主管经济和规划，而我是经济顾问委员会的高级经济学家。
库德洛消息灵通且富有成效，所以在判断他是否适合这一职位方面，我同意耶鲁大学管理学教授杰弗里·索南菲尔德（Jeffrey Sonnenfeld）的评价。索南菲尔德在《首席执行官》杂志上接受帕特里克戈尔曼的访问，访问的标题说明了这一切：《索南菲尔德：拉里库德洛是国家经济会议主席的“最佳人选”》。
也就是说，库德洛面对新工作将困难重重，尤其在面对特朗普政府对国际贸易的看法方面。白宫的新一任“经济沙皇”支持自由贸易。特朗普总统本人、其内阁和贸易专家都支持贸易保护主义，尽管他们委婉地称其为“管理贸易”。确实，特朗普政府最近祭出了针对中国的大动作。特朗普的对华贸易措施包括对价值600亿美元的中国出口商品征收关税。特朗普还表示，他希望中国与美国的双边贸易顺差能大幅减少1000亿美元。
与大多数商人一样，特朗普缺乏国际贸易的常识，不了解导致整体贸易逆差和顺差的原因。在国际贸易中，库德洛面临的大问题是他在里根手下工作时从没遇过的。毕竟，里根至少在言辞中声称自己支持自由贸易。
库德洛给特朗普上的第一课将至关重要。一旦库德洛说服特朗普失败，自由贸易主张无法施行，贸易战将随之而来。这时，政权不确定性会增加，民望大跌。政权结束。
库德洛必须进行的第一课应该叫做：造成美国总体贸易差额的原因，在于美国本身，而非由“不公平的”贸易行为。这一国际贸易课背后的经济原理是：
（进口-出口）=（私人投资-私人储蓄）+（政府支出-税收）
据此可见，贸易逆差等于私人部门投资减去私人储蓄的差，加上政府支出减去税收的差。也就是说，贸易逆差是私营部门赤字和政府赤字（联邦+州和地方）的总和。因此，美国的贸易逆差只是国内经济发展状况的一面镜子。如果美国的支出超过了美国的收入，那么超额支出将体现在贸易逆差（参见：贸易逆差）。
美国自1975年以来累计的贸易赤字约为11.15万亿美元，总投资减去储蓄赤字约为10.44万亿美元。
所以美国的贸易赤字不是由“不公平”的贸易行为造成的，背后元凶正是美国自己本身。
库德洛应该明确表示，对华加征关税，挑衅北京，或许可以减少美中的双边贸易赤字，但不会扭转美国的整体贸易逆差。事实上，如果中国被迫减少对美国的双边贸易顺差，其他国家将代替中国来满足美国消费者和投资者的需求。没错，由贸易特性决定的美国整体贸易赤字将由其他国家来维持。
特朗普驱除逆差恶魔的唯一有效途径（参见：美国的整体贸易逆差）将是减少财政赤字。但讽刺的是，特朗普的政策预计会增加财政赤字，从而导致更大的贸易赤字。
史蒂夫·汉克是约翰霍普金斯大学应用经济学教授和IMI国际顾问委员会成员
英文原文如下：
Kudlow must give Trump a lesson on trade
New economic czar is against protectionism
by Steve Hanke in Baltimore
March 15, 2018.
Larry Kudlow, the new director of the US National Economic Council, and I go back many moons. We collaborated countless times during President Reagan's first term. Kudlow was the associate director for economics and planning at the Office of Management and Budget, and I was a senior economist at the Council of Economic Advisers.
Kudlow was always informed and effective, so when I read Yale management professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld's assessment of his suitability for his new role, I was in agreement. The title of Sonnenfeld's interview with Patrick Gorman in Chief Executive magazine says it all: Sonnenfeld: Larry Kudlow A 'Perfect Fit' For NEC Chairman.
That said, Kudlow will have his work cut out for him, particularly when it comes to the Trump administration's views on international trade. The White House's new economic czar favours free trade. President Trump, his cabinet and his trade experts all favour protectionism, or as they euphemistically refer to it, 'managed trade'. Indeed, the Trump administration's most recent salvo was aimed at China. Trump's anti-China measures include tariffs on up to $60bn worth of annual imports. The president has also stated that he wants China to slash its bilateral trade surplus with the US by $100bn.
Trump, like most businessmen, fails to understand the most fundamental points about international trade and what causes overall trade deficits and surpluses. On international trade, Kudlow has a huge problem — one he never had with Reagan. After all, Reagan was, at least rhetorically, a free trader.
Kudlow's first tutorial with Trump will be the key. If Kudlow fails, he will fail on trade and trade wars will ensue. When that happens, regime uncertainty will increase and confidence will plunge. Game over.
The first lesson on trade Kudlow must deliver should be titled: The overall US trade balance is made in the USA, not by 'unfair' foreign trade practices. The economic identity that forms the foundation for this lesson in international trade is:
(Imports - exports) = (private investment - private savings) + (government spending - taxes)
Accordingly, the trade deficit is equal to the excess of private sector investment over savings, plus the excess of government spending over tax revenue. The counterpart of the trade deficit is the sum of the private sector deficit and the government deficit (federal + state and local). The US trade deficit is therefore just the mirror image of what is happening in the domestic economy. If expenditures in the US exceed the incomes produced in the US, which they do, the excess expenditures will be met by an excess of imports over exports (read: a trade deficit).
The cumulative trade deficit the US has racked up since 1975 is about $11.15tn, and the total investment minus savings deficit is about $10.44tn.
So US trade deficits are not caused by 'unfair' trade practices. They are made in the good old USA.
Kudlow should make it clear that the imposition of anti-China tariffs or the brow-beating of Chairman Xi might reduce the US bilateral trade deficit with China, but it will not alter the overall US trade deficit. Indeed, if China is forced to reduce its bilateral trade surplus with the US, then others will supply what US consumers and investors demand. Yes, others will accommodate the US overall trade deficit that is dictated by the trade identity.
The only effective way for Trump to exorcise his demon (read: the overall US trade deficit) would be for him to reduce the fiscal deficit. But ironically, Trump's policies are projected to increase the fiscal deficit, which will result in a larger trade deficit.
Steve Hanke is Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University and Member of IMI International Advisory Board.
观点整理 叶祎然
图文编辑 叶祎然
审校 田雯
监制 朱霜霜
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