巴基斯坦央行原行长：一带一路，一帆风顺还是颠簸前行

导读

十年前的全球经济危机改变了世界经济格局，奏响了亚洲经济逐渐放缓的前奏，而亚洲经济本可带领我们走出严重的经济衰退，刺激全球增长。现如今，不乐观的企业利润前景与各种不利的国际因素相结合，预示着下一次衰退的到来。那么，应该采取怎样的措施来保护我们免受这些经济漏洞的伤害，在哪里能够找到刺激全球经济可持续增长的必要资源？

迈克尔•米尔肯是沃顿商学院著名的毕业生之一，他在20世纪80年代创造的垃圾债券市场使得规模较小且未评级的公司也能够筹集资本。米尔肯的创造力，不仅为投资者带来了新的资本市场机会，而且为经济的整体增长增添了新的激励因素，拉动了就业与消费者购买力的增长。

与米尔肯的策略相似，“一带一路”倡议为沿途的新兴市场经济体提供了筹措资本的渠道，在过去，新兴经济体由于没有所需的投资级评级，无法进入国际债券市场，为长期性基础设施建设项目筹集资金。而那些海外投资者，由于受到公司政策以及自身风险偏好的影响，更倾向于选择欧洲、美国或日本这些相对成熟的市场，即使新兴经济体拥有丰富的自然资源。

基础设施建设是“一带一路”倡议的核心，也是大多数经济体发展的动力。“一带一路”倡议将新兴经济体充足的资源和机遇转化为工业增长与包容性增长的动力，同时保持区域性的稳定。将人民币作为代币，降低了支付结算风险。在外生冲击到来前，地区经济体需要装备降低风险的防护罩。“一带一路”倡议的理想特性为恢复国际货币体系的稳定与信心提供了必要的因素，同时，在许多相关国家创造了新的就业机会，减少了贫困。所以，没有人有理由阻碍“一带一路”倡议的实施。

作者 | 亚辛·安瓦尔，IMI国际委员、巴基斯坦央行原行长

英文原文如下：

 “SMOOTH SAILING OR

A BUMPY RIDE GOING FORWARD”

Yaseen Anwar

March 31, 2019

 Sr. Adviser, ICBC Singapore

Former Governor, Central Bank of Pakistan

Int. Advisory Board, International Monetary Institute, Renmin University

Ten years earlier we faced the early stages of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) that changed the shape of the global economic landscape and included the collapse of two venerable Wall Street Firms, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, and that led us to unprecedented negative interest rates in Europe, and what was to be a prelude to a gradual slowing of the dominant Asian economy that was supposed to lift us out of a deep recession and stimulate global growth.  What is in store for us going forward?

 Today, future Corporate earnings outlook in some analyst’s mind is grim, combined with the trending Yield Curve, increased country Debt, Risk Averseness of Financial Institutions to long term credit, looming negative interest rates once again in Europe, continuing contentious Trade War, Geopolitical conflicts, the independence of the Fed in question, and the ever-present unresolved Brexit, provide a compelling backdrop to a possible recession with continuing global uncertainty. So what measures should be taken to protect us from these vulnerabilities and where are we to find the necessary resources to lift us in support of stimulating sustainable global economic growth?

Michael Milken, one of the Notable graduates of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, created the popular Junk Bond market in the 1980’s to enable the smaller, non-rated companies access to capital which they did not nor would have had access to.  Milken’s creativity in opening new potential economic opportunities triggered not only new Capital Market opportunities for investors, but also added a new stimulus to the overall growth of the economy with new jobs and consumer purchasing power.  A whole new industry of New Capital developed that motorized a new generation of professionals and created a new variety of financial products.  The Risk/Reward ratio also added a new dimension to Asset Allocation strategies as improved availability of financial data provided added comfort to investors in expanding their Risk appetite in search for higher returns.  

 Analogous to Milken’s strategy, the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) provides that very access to capital for those BRI connected emerging market economies that have NOT had in the past the necessary Investment Grade Ratings to tap the international Bond market for sorely needed funding to finance long term infrastructure projects.  Such economies, with vast potential natural resources i.e. Africa, Pakistan, etc., have never had the opportunity to attract offshore investors who require investment grade Ratings dictated by their corporate policies, nor do those investors have the Risk appetite to venture in uncharted emerging markets, or simply opted for safer and Rated opportunities in mature markets of Europe, the U.S., or Japan.  Safety and preservation of Capital was foremost in an uncertain and volatile global economy.  

Infrastructure, the core of BRI funding, is and has been the engine of growth for most economies.  The Industrial revolution of the 19th century in the U.S. transformed an agrarian based economy to a technological and manufacturing based economy, lifting the U.S. as a leading global economy in the 20th century.  The New Deal in the 1930s with its emphasis on Infrastructure reforms in Finance, industry, Agriculture, construction of highways, bridges, Power Dams in the U.S., not only pulled the economy out of Depression of the 1920s, but leap frogged the economy for the remainder of the 20th century and beyond into a trajectory as the largest economy in the world.  The domestic network of connectivity in transportation comprising of railroads and trucking, resulted in an economic expansion in SMEs, Agriculture, housing, finance, and so on. In fact the majority of trade for the U.S. happens to be domestic within its own 50 states.   

Such Infrastructure, or the lack thereof, has hampered the very economic development that many BRI related countries sorely need.  The shortage of Power in Pakistan has impaired GDP growth rates of up to 3% and the lack of a developed transportation network for refrigerated trucks for distribution of agricultural products, results in a 50% loss of perishable products.  It is estimated corrective measures could generate substantial annual FX earnings.  Filling this gap and elevating Pakistan’s 5th largest milk production rank in the world could generate up to another $500 Million in annual Export earnings.  

Given the historical and current backdrop for infrastructure needs, it is difficult to fathom why anyone would be averse to supporting the Financing gap of Trillions that can be filled by BRI as a logical remedy in building the necessary defenses to cushion vulnerabilities.  BRI and its collective resources of Multilaterals can also be leveraged to fill the financing ‘gaps’ and alleviate concerns of Risk Averse private sector lenders and investors.  

The past two years have witnessed BRI successes already positively impacting on certain economies with new employment and improved productivity. In 2017, Piraeus handled more than 4 Million containers for onward distribution to Europe, Dusport-Germany is the largest inland port in the world, 10,000 plus companies are now operating across the African continent connecting via an expanding transportation network of rail and roads,  more than $60 Billion of new business has been generated between Africa and 54 countries in investments and Tourism, new housing in Indonesia, Power projects in Bangladesh, roads in Pakistan/Kazakhstan, ASEAN trade has increased last year by over 12% and still increasing with huge potential of the current Asian regional intra trade at 23-25% compared to European/NAFTA intra regional trade at 57-63%.  The current trajectory is in the positive direction.

Logically and intellectually BRI makes sense for the above reasons. Why would anyone want to create obstacles or block it?  BRI translates into ample resources and opportunities to stimulate industrial growth and provide the inclusive growth as well as preserve stability on a regional level.  Payments settlement risk can also be reduced by using the RMB as an alternative currency.  Dark clouds and exogenous shocks are possible on the horizon and regional economies need to install risk mitigating shields.  BRI’s desirable attributes provide the necessary ingredients to restore faith, confidence, and some stability in the International Monetary System and at the same time generate new employment and reduce poverty in many countries connected to Belt & Road. 

编译  韩子砚

编辑  孙建秋

审校  田雯

责编  胡晓涛、金天

监制  朱霜霜

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