世界银行总裁：2022年全球经济增长预期下调至2.9%

导读

世界银行最新发布的《全球经济展望》报告将2022年全球经济增长预期下调至2.9%，远低于今年1月份预期的4.1%。对于新兴市场和发展中经济体的增长预期下调至3.4%，低于今年1月预期的4.6%。报告还指出，若经济下行风险成为现实，全球经济增长在2022年可能会降至2.1%，2023年降至1.5%，按人均计算，增长将接近0。

全球经济可能进入高通货膨胀和低经济增长的滞胀期。报告对照了1970年代的滞胀，指出滞涨将严重影响低收入及中等收入国家。能源供给等相关政策及中央银行鼓励商业投资的政策，显得至关重要。

全球危机重重，决策者需从以下五个方面集中精力处理危机。首先，保护受乌克兰战争直接影响的人群。第二，积极应对飙升的石油及粮食价格。欧洲欲摆脱俄罗斯，重新调整其能源供应，这样一来却减少了其他地区的能源、电力及粮食供应，当务之急在于增加新的能源与粮食生产。同时，要减少进出口限制及补贴，否则价格会进一步上涨，导致市场扭曲。各国需支持最贫穷的国家建立社会安全网及现金转移，以此避免高额补贴和价格管控。第三，加强债务减免。低收入及中等收入国家债务危机越发严重，需迅速全面地进行债务减免。第四，加强卫生防疫，控制新冠疫情。优先支持低收入国家开展疫苗接种等防疫工作。第五，解决气候变化问题，需要大规模投资，发展清洁能源、电网及传输，提升能源效率，也需采取行动解决天然气燃烧、甲烷泄漏以及陈旧燃煤电厂等造成的威胁。

最后，报告作出两点提醒，一是欧洲的能源调整将对发展中国家产生重大影响，应通过投资，阻止碳密集型燃料的使用增加。二是发展中国家发展不稳定，资本严重短缺，未来全球不平等问题将一直持续。

本文为戴维·马尔帕斯于2022年6月7日在2022年6月《全球经济展望报告》发布会上的致辞

作者丨David R.Malpass，世界银行集团总裁

Opening Remarks by World Bank Group President David Malpass during the Launch the June 2022 Global Economic Prospects Report

David R.Malpass,WBG President,The Launch the June 2022 Global Economic Prospects Report

 7 June 2022

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining.

I want to highlight a few messages from our latest Global Economic Prospects report and take questions. At the outset, let me thank Ayhan Kose and his team for all their work on this.

The new GEP cuts forecasts for the global economy and emerging markets. Global economic activity is expected to slow to 2.9 percent in 2022 amid surging inflation, rising interest rates, and the war in Ukraine. This forecast is close to one-third lower than the January forecast of 4.1 percent.

Several years of above-average inflation and below-average growth now seem likely. The path will depend heavily on supply decisions taken now, especially for energy; and on central bank policies to encourage business investment as interest rates normalize.

The growth forecast for emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) this year has been lowered to 3.4 percent (from 4.6 percent expected in January 2022). In this latest GEP, forecasts for 2022 growth have been revised down in nearly 70 percent of EMDEs compared to the January release.

The risk from stagflation is considerable, with potentially destabilizing consequences for low- and middle-income economies. In 2022, the level of EMDE per capita income will be nearly 5 percent below its pre-pandemic trend. Subdued growth will likely persist throughout the decade because of weak investment in most of the world. GEP has a special focus note on the risks of stagflation, including comparisons to the 1970s.

For many countries, recession will be hard to avoid. With the supply of natural gas constrained in poorer countries for use in fertilizer, farming, and electricity grids, announcements of major production increases will be essential for restoring non-inflationary growth. The GEP presents downside risks. If they materialize, we could even see global growth fall to 2.1 percent in 2022 and 1.5 percent in 2023. If so, on a per capita basis, growth would fall close to zero.

In this extraordinary era of overlapping global crises, policymakers need to focus their efforts in five key areas to respond to the crises and improve the outlook for developing countries:

•  First, limit the harm to people directly affected by the war in Ukraine.

• Second, actively counter the spike in oil and food prices. As Europe realigns its energy supply away from Russia and absorbs new resources from around the world, it reduces the availability of energy, electricity, and food elsewhere. This makes new energy and food production an imperative for both Europe and the world. Markets are responsive to supply, and they look forward, so increases in estimates of future supply would help reduce current prices and inflation expectations.

• It’s also crucial to avoid export and import restrictions and subsidies that magnify the rise in prices and distort markets. In the poorest nations – those at greatest risk from shortages of fertilizer and food – targeted social safety nets and cash transfers need to be buttressed. This supports the vulnerable and helps countries avoid more costly subsidies and price controls.

• Third, step up debt-relief efforts. Debt vulnerabilities were acute for low-income countries even before the pandemic. As debt distress spreads to middle-income countries, the danger is growing. Debt relief needs to be rapid, comprehensive, and sizable in order to avoid deeper crises and allow recovery.

•  Fourth, strengthen health preparedness and efforts to contain COVID-19. Expanding immunization efforts in low-income countries, including COVID-19 vaccinations, must be a high global priority.

• Fifth and final, among these overlapping crises and policy priorities, we need to effectively address climate change as a continuing challenge. It requires massive investments in cleaner energy, energy efficiency, and electricity grids and transmission. Gas flaring, methane leakage, and the operation of antiquated coal-fired power plants, with severe health and environmental impacts, continue with little abatement.
  

I’ll leave you with two sobering points. First, the energy tradeoffs made in Europe will have major consequences for developing countries. Already, the high price of liquified natural gas (LNG) is causing reduced crop yields and an increased use of coal, diesel, and heavy fuel oil. Investments need to be made now to stop this shift into more carbon-intensive fuels.

Second, many developing countries are facing instability and severe shortages of capital. They’ve been left behind by COVID-19, the global response to the pandemic, inflation, and now by the policy response to inflation. As policy accommodation is removed in the advanced economies, inequality is deepening rapidly. The GEP outlook is for these global divides to persist.

I’m happy to take your questions.

编译：陈沁钰

选题：洪思佳

本文监制：董熙君、崔甜甜

来源｜WBG

版面编辑｜徐诗惠

责任编辑｜李锦璇、蒋旭

总监制｜朱霜霜

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