民调数据、提前投票、博彩数据交织下,特朗普与哈里斯的最新选情透视
* “中美友好互信合作计划”是由复旦发展研究院和丰实集团共同打造的中美关系研究的学术平台
随着美国大选日益临近,特朗普与哈里斯的选情牵动全球各界人士关注。从目前来看,民调结果显示两人仍在战场州激烈竞争,特朗普追赶势头不减,哈里斯优势缩小。同时,选民提前投票的行为也创下新高,尤其是共和党选民的提前投票意愿较四年前有所提升。博彩机构数据显示,特朗普的胜算超过六成,这也带动了新兴社交媒体公司特朗普传媒(股票代码:DJT)股价在10月份的大部分时间里都大幅上涨。目前两党都在抓紧最后时间在关键战场州催票,相关动向将持续关注。
最新民调情况:
战场州依旧胶着
提前投票情况分析
赌盘民调:
特朗普占尽上风
选举之夜前的冲刺活动
1. Helen Sullivan, The Guardian, US presidential election updates: Harris and Trump hit Wisconsin as data shows almost 60m Americans have voted, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/31/us-presidential-election-2024-trump-harris-updates
2. The New York Times, Election 2024 Polls: Harris vs. Trump, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html
3. Alice Herman, The Guardian, Voting is under way in the 2024 US election. Here’s what to know about early voting and mail-in ballots, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/20/us-elections-2024-early-voting-explainer
4. Keith Collins and Josh Williams, The New York Times, Early Voting Has Started. Here’s What to Watch., https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/early-vote-tracker-2024.html
5. Matt Holt, Ethan Cohen and Molly English, CNN, One week from Election Day, early voters look different than they did 4 years ago, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/29/politics/early-voting-turnout/index.html
6. Jared Gans, The Hill, Early, mail-in votes raise questions about possible election results, https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4960217-2024-election-early-voting/
7. Zachary B. Wolf, CNN, What the early voting data can and can’t tell us about Election Day, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/17/politics/early-voting-election-what-matters/index.html?iid=cnn_buildContentRecirc_end_recirc
8. Irie Sentner, Lisa Kashinsky and Jessica Piper, Politico, Harris and Trump — and their surrogates — pour into Wisconsin in final stretch, https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/30/harris-trump-wisconsin-campaign-2024-00186427
9. Adriana Gomez Licon and Jonathan J. Cooper, AP, Donald Trump boards a garbage truck to draw attention to Biden remark, https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-garbage-truck-wisconsin-1b9b2882b59639ba0dc898b0b45e395b
10. Piper Hudspeth Blackburn, CNN, As voters cast ballots this election, some Americans are placing bets. Here’s what to know, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/30/business/us-election-betting-2024/index.html
11. Phil McCausland and Christal Hayes, BBC, Backlash after comedian at Trump rally calls Puerto Rico 'island of garbage', https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy9jj2g75q4o
12. James Powel, USA TODAY, Presidential betting odds: How Harris, Trump race compares to 2020, 2016 with 1 week to go, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/29/presidential-betting-odds-harris-trump/75924266007/
13. Alexandra Hutzler, Ivan Pereira, Tal Axelrod, Meredith Deliso, Emily Chang, and David Brennan, ABC News, 2024 election updates: Trump rides to rally in marked garbage truck, https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-updates/2024-election-updates-harris-handle-bidens-garbage-comment/?id=115298019
14. Aimee Picchi, CBS News, A week before the election, DJT stock surges amid Trump's rise in the betting markets, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/djt-stock-trump-media-trading-halt-price-prediction/
15. Alexandra Canal, Yahoo Finance, DJT stock extends surge in volatile trading as Trump, Harris election nears, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/djt-stock-extends-surge-in-volatile-trading-as-trump-harris-election-nears-153139260.html
16. Callum Jones, The Guardian, Opinion polls have Harris and Trump locked in a tight race. ‘Gambling polls’ say otherwise, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/31/election-betting-presidential-odds-polling
17. Colleen Long and Dan Merica, PBS News, 7 takeaways from Harris’ big ‘closing argument’ campaign speech, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/harris-offers-voters-a-new-path-forward-in-speech-billed-as-her-campaigns-closing-argument
往期精选