UFEI观察|UNESCO最新报告：新冠疫情将给教育带来哪些损失？

What price will education pay for COVID-19?

新冠疫情将给教育带来哪些损失？

本文内容提示：

• 危机期间，短期内教育成本将受到何种影响？

• 长期来看，教育界的资金将受到何种影响？

• 为减轻危机对教育的影响，可以采取哪些措施？

As the world comes to terms with thescale and severity of the COVID-19 pandemic, the health of the globalpopulation is rightly taking priority over education for the time being. Fortoday’s students, the coronavirus outbreak means a huge loss of learning time,with potential repercussions for their schooling and careers in the years tocome. But what predictions can be made about the financial impact on educationmore broadly? 

随着世界逐渐认识到新冠疫情的规模和严重性，全球人口的健康理所当然地取代教育成为了当务之急。对于今天的学生来说，新冠疫情意味着学习时间的巨大损失，并可能对他们未来几年的学业和职业生涯造成影响。但是新冠疫情对教育资金有何影响呢？

According to BlandineLedoux and KoffiSegniagbeto, IIEP specialists in education costs and financingin Paris and Dakar respectively, the crisis will have a significant impact attwo different levels: 

1.    the loss of education spending forthe duration of the crisis, as well as the resulting additional cost, and

2.    the expected downturn in futurefinancial resources available to the education sector. They point out that ‘globalinequalities in access to education will widen and the global learning crisiswill be exacerbated’, disrupting progress towards Sustainable Development Goal(SDG) 4, which calls for universal access to quality education.

联合国教科文组织国际教育规划研究所（IIEP）巴黎和达喀尔分部的教育成本和融资问题专家勒杜（Blandine Ledoux）和塞尼亚格贝托（Koffi Segniagbeto）认为，这场危机将在两个不同层面产生重大影响：

1. 危机期间教育支出的损失，以及由此产生的额外费用；

2. 教育界未来可获得的资金预计将会减少。

他们指出“全球教育机会不平等将扩大，全球学习危机将加剧”，阻碍可持续发展目标4——普遍获得优质教育——的实现。

How will short-term education costs be affected duringthe crisis?

危机期间，短期内教育成本将受到何种影响？

Huge losses owing to school closures: As of 25 March 2020, 184 countries have shut down schools nationwide, affecting more than 1.5 billion learners. Most costs for the current 2019/20school year have already been incurred (goods and services, for example, areusually purchased early on in the year; teachers who are public servants willstill be paid despite closures), meaning that these expenses, for the mostpart, do not translate into learning however long schools are closed. If the2020 exam cycle cannot be completed, then the full year’s spending will beimpacted. It is impossible to say at this point how long the crisis will last, butif closures were to last into the next academic year, losses would of coursecontinue to mount up.

学校停课造成的巨大损失：截至2020年3月25日，全球已有184国实行学校停课，15亿多学生受到这一措施影响。目前，2019-2020学年的大部分教育成本已经产生（例如，货物和服务通常在年初已经购买；公务员编制的教师在学校停课期间仍将得到薪酬）。在大多数情况下，只要学校处于停课状态，这些支出就无法转化为学习。如果2020年的考试周期无法完成，那么全年的开支都将受到影响。目前还无法确知这场危机将会持续多久，但如果学校停课持续到下一学年，损失当然会继续增加。

Costs of mitigating the consequencesof schools closing: Where possible, distance learning systems are beingused to limit the loss of learning time. The financial cost of this varies fromcountry to country, depending on the existing infrastructure and the level ofpreparedness for a crisis such as this. Ledoux and Segniagbeto explain that‘the additional expense may be marginal for some countries, but could besubstantial for others, representing an additional burden for the educationsystem and/or families’. Governments, particularly in high-income countries,might also look to replace some in-school services (such as meals) with at-homealternatives, generating further costs. Factors like this will need to bequickly and properly assessed at country level if we are to avoid seeinginequalities in education widen, even in the short to medium term.

减缓学校停课影响的成本：有条件的地区正在使用远程学习系统来弥补学习时间的损失。这方面的财政成本因国家而异，取决于各国现有的基础设施和应对此类危机的准备程度。勒杜和塞尼亚格贝托解释说：“额外开支对一些国家来说可能微不足道，但对另一些国家来说可能是巨大的，这给教育系统和（或）家庭带来了额外的负担。”各国政府，特别是高收入国家的政府，也可能寻求用在家提供的服务来取代一些学校服务（例如餐食），从而产生更多费用。如果我们要避免教育不平等扩大，即便只是在中短期内，那么就需要在国家层面对这类因素进行迅速和适当的评估。

What will be the longer-term impact when it comes tofinancing the education sector?

长期来看，教育界的资金将受到何种影响？

Dramatic drop in government revenues: ‘This is probably what will havethe greatest effect on the education sector in financial terms,’ according toLedoux and Segniagbeto. They refer to the International Monetary Fund’s warning thatglobal growth in 2020 will fall below last year’s level, and therefore so willgovernment revenues. With so much still unknown at this stage, however, it ishard to predict by how much, and what will happen in 2021 - let alone in theyears beyond. 

政府收入急剧减少：勒杜和塞尼亚格贝托说，这可能是对教育资金影响最大的因素。他们的依据是国际货币基金组织（IMF）的警告，即2020年全球经济增长将低于去年的水平，因此政府收入也将如此。然而，由于现阶段仍有太多未知数，很难预计下降的幅度，以及2021年会发生什么，更不用说未来几年会发生什么了。

What is certain is that containment efforts to halt the spread ofthe disease will have a major impact on global supply and demand, and theresulting economic slowdown will have worldwide repercussions. Governments’revenue, for example from taxes, will be severely affected, reducing the levelof public spending – including on education systems – in the future.

可以肯定的是，遏制疫情蔓延的努力将对全球供需产生重大冲击，由此造成的经济放缓将在全球范围产生影响。政府的收入——例如来自税收的收入——将会受到严重影响，从而使未来的公共支出水平下降，包括教育系统的支出。

Lower prioritization of education,nationally and internationally: Exceptional measures will have to be put in place tolimit the damage to countries’ economies and healthcare systems, and these willinevitably be costly. Whether education’s share of public expenditure willremain stable (UNESCO data indicate that this wasmore or less the case after the financial crisis of 2008) is in doubt:

Education could become a victim ofspending cuts, as money is channelled elsewhere. As ever, low-income countriesare the most vulnerable.

教育的优先级在国家和国际范围内降低：必须采取超常措施来减少国家经济和医疗系统受到的破坏，这些措施将不可避免地产生高昂成本。教育在公共支出中所占的份额是否会保持稳定（教科文组织的数据表明，2008年金融危机之后的情况或多或少就是如此）令人担忧：”随着资金流向其他地方，教育开支可能遭到削减。一如既往，低收入国家是最脆弱的。”

Theymay suffer from an inadequate supply of education services: insufficientteacher numbers, for example, will lead to a deterioration of educationquality, which is sometimes already very low. In addition, low-income countrieswill be doubly impacted if there is a reduction of official developmentassistance from high-income countries, who will have to realign their fiscalpriorities in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. For these reasons, it iseasy to see how COVID-19 will push SDG 4, and quality education for all,further out of reach of those most at risk.

它们的教育服务供给可能出现短缺：例如，教师人数不足将使这些国家的教育质量雪上加霜。此外，新冠疫情之后，高收入国家将不得不调整他们财政优先事项。如果来自高收入国家的官方发展援助减少，低收入国家将受到双重影响。可以预见的是，新冠疫情将使可持续发展目标4和全民优质教育的愿景对弱势群体更加的遥遥无期。

What can be done to mitigate the effects of the crisison education?

为减轻危机对教育的影响，可以采取哪些措施？

Much remains unknown at this stage interms of the duration and scope of the crisis, and understandably the currentemphasis is on slowing and stopping the spread of the coronavirus. Moreover,this crisis will affect all countries, and each nation will face differentproblems during the outbreak and in its aftermath. 

现阶段，有关危机的持续时间和范围仍有许多未知数。可以理解，当务之急是减缓和阻断新冠病毒的传播。此外，这场危机将影响所有国家，而每个国家在疫情爆发期间和之后都将面临不同的问题。

That said, Ledoux and Segniagbetobelieve that the impact of the crisis will disproportionately affect educationsystems in low-income countries: ‘the risk to the most marginalized populationsis huge, and governments need to pay close attention to the situation in theirown country.’ One such situation is the danger of temporarily interruptedlearning becoming permanent. Many students may not return to the classroom evenonce the crisis is resolved, increasing the numbers of out-of-school childrenand youth. Girls may be disproportionately among them, halting progress made inaddressing gender disparities in education.

尽管如此，勒杜和塞尼亚格贝托认为，危机将不成比例地影响低收入国家的教育系统：“最边缘化群体面临着巨大风险，各国政府需要密切关注本国的情况。”这些情况之一就是暂时停课变成永久辍学的危险。即使危机得到解决，许多学生可能也不会回到学校，而失学儿童和青少年的数量将因此增加。其中大多数将是女童，因此性别平等的进展也将受阻。

Blandine Ledoux and Koffi Segniagbetoalso point out that the crisis will provide lessons that can be used asopportunities. ‘It has the potential to transform educational service deliveryin many countries, especially distance learning. Countries that are able totake advantage of this will prepare themselves well for the future of educationin the 21st century.’ In addition, they add, ‘school health has never receivedthe attention it deserves in the educational programmes of developingcountries. This crisis is undoubtedly an opportunity to redesign curricula togive school health the place it deserves.’

勒杜和塞尼亚格贝托还指出，这场危机将提供有益的经验教训。它也许能变革许多国家的教育服务，尤其是远程教育。能够抓住这一机会的国家将为21世纪的教育未来做好准备，”此外，他们补充说，“在发展中国家的教育项目中，学校医疗卫生从未得到应有的重视。这场危机无疑是一个重新设计课程以给予学校医疗卫生应有地位的机会。”

While the full repercussions ofCOVID-19 are yet to be seen, IIEP’s work with planners and policy-makers willcontinue, adapting to the situation as it evolves in each country. The world’seducation sector must learn quickly if it is to effectively overcome theunprecedented – and largely unknown –challenge now facing it.

虽然新冠肺炎的全面影响还有待观察，但国际教育规划研究所（IIEP）将继续与规划者和政策制定者合作，以适应每个国家的情况变化。全球教育界只有迅速学习，才能有效地克服目前面临的前所未有的、充满未知的挑战。

信息来源：联合国教科文组织

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