这个外国人拿中国数据发了多篇AER, JPE, RES等五大顶刊！汗颜！

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前些日，咱们引荐了①“实证研究中用到的200篇文章, 社科学者常备toolkit”、②实证文章写作常用到的50篇名家经验帖, 学者必读系列、③过去10年AER上关于中国主题的Articles专辑、④AEA公布2017-19年度最受关注的十大研究话题, 给你的选题方向，⑤2020年中文Top期刊重点选题方向, 写论文就写这些。后面，咱们又引荐了①使用CFPS, CHFS, CHNS数据实证研究的精选文章专辑！，②这40个微观数据库够你博士毕业了, 反正凭着这些库成了教授，③Python, Stata, R软件史上最全快捷键合辑！，④关于(模糊)断点回归设计的100篇精选Articles专辑！，⑤关于双重差分法DID的32篇精选Articles专辑！，⑥关于合成控制法SCM的33篇精选Articles专辑！⑦最近80篇关于中国国际贸易领域papers合辑！，⑧最近70篇关于中国环境生态的经济学papers合辑！⑨使用CEPS, CHARLS, CGSS, CLHLS数据库实证研究的精选文章专辑！⑩最近50篇使用系统GMM开展实证研究的papers合辑！这些文章受到了各位学者的欢迎和热议，博士生导师纷纷将其推荐给学生参阅。

正文

AER下一期里有一篇非常有意思的文章，它聚焦于中国社会网络纽带对zhengzhi生涯的影响。今天，我们不单单只引荐这篇文章，更重要的是引荐一位名叫Raymond Fisman的青年经济学者。一位中国教授写道：“我实在佩服Raymond Fisman，能够把内容和分析非常简单的论文发到以要求技术和数理分析闻名的RES上！”。Raymond在论文中使用的方法并不复杂，但却能够在各种经济学类Top期刊上发表关于中国的文章。不过，这些本来应该是我们去做的学术研究，却让一个外国人发表在各种Top刊物上了，多少有些让人感慨！

社会纽带与中国政治精英的选择

我们研究了与中国zhengzhi局现任是老乡或大学同学关系，会如何影响候选人被选为新zhengzhi局成员的可能性。在剔除了不同城市和大学之间质量差异的固定效应模型中，我们发现与zhengzhi局现任存在老乡或大学同学关系的候选人，能够当选新任zhengzhi局成员的概率会降低5-9个百分点（相关性）。对于退休的政治局成员来说，这种“纽带惩罚”同样存在；而对于低一级的zhengzhi局成员，这种“纽带惩罚”会更强些，这与paixi内部竞争的作用相一致。

波士顿大学行为经济学Slater Family讲席教授

根据IDEAS数据库，他在世界范围内排名为591。

Raymond Fisman研究中国系列的顶刊文章

Social Ties and the Selection of China’s Political Elite (with Jing Shi, Yongxiang Wang, and Weixing Wu), forthcoming, American Economic Review.

社会纽带与中国政治精英的选择

我们研究了与中国zhengzhi局现任是老乡或者大学同学关系，会如何影响候选人被选为新zhengzhi局成员的可能性。在剔除了不同城市和大学之间质量差异的固定效应模型中，我们发现与zhengzhi局现任存在老乡或大学同学关系的候选人，能够当选新任zhengzhi局成员的概率会降低5-9个百分点（相关关系）。对于退休的政治局成员来说，这种“纽带惩罚”同样存在；对于低一级的zhengzhi局成员，这种“纽带惩罚”会更强些，这与paixi内部竞争的作用相一致。

Air Pollution, Affect, and Forecasting Bias: Evidence from Chinese Financial Analysts (with Rui Dong, Raymond Fisman, Yongxiang Wang, and Nianhang Xu), Journal of Financial Economics, forthcoming.

空气污染、心情与预测偏差：来自中国金融分析师的证据

中国的投资分析师在实地考察公司期间的空气污染水平与盈余预测之间的关系。实证分析过程，第一，探讨空气污染、不同空气污染水平和考察时间对分析师乐观偏差的影响；第二，从投资分析师个人异质性的角度讨论了空气污染对分析师乐观偏差的影响，第三，探讨了投资分析师生活城市的空气水平与实地考察城市的空气污染水平与盈余预测之间的关系。

Social Ties and Favoritism in Chinese Science (with J. Shi, Y. Wang, and R. Xu), Journal of Political Economy, 2018.

中国科学中的社会纽带与偏袒：“老乡关系”影响中国院士选拔

有同乡在本学部主席团可以使中科院和中工院的院士候选人当选院士的可能性提高35%，2007年提高院士当选门槛后这个影响逐步消失了。

The distortionary effects of incentives in government: Evidence from China’s “death ceiling” program (with Yongxiang Wang), American Economic Journal: Applied**, 2016.

政府内部激励的扭曲效应：来自中国“死亡天花板”的证据

作者使用人民日报和劳动生产年鉴这些公开数据，构建了中国31个省份各个类型事故死亡人数的面板数据。作者分析发现，在死亡人数超过了规定上限时（比如，中国经常用的35人），该样本分布出现了显著的断点，这显示很有可能存在数据少报现象；在实施“一票否决制”的省份，死亡人数超过死亡天花板的年份明显减少，不过这一效应只存在于天花板附近。

The Mortality Cost of Political Connections (with Yongxiang Wang), Review of Economic Studies, 2015

zhengzhi关联的死亡成本

西南财经大学一位老师的微博里写道：“这篇文章The mortality cost of political connections也发在Review of Economic Studies。我实在佩服Raymond Fisman，能够把内容和分析非常简单的论文发到以要求技术和数理分析闻名的RES上！我承认，我是怎么也想不出为这篇文章写这样的开头。

Nationalism and Economic Exchange: Evidence from Shocks to Sino-Japanese Relations (with Yasushi Hamao and Yongxiang Wang), Review of Financial Studies, 2014

民族主义与经济交流：来自中日关系冲击的证

We study the impact of nationalism and interstate frictions on international economic relations by analyzing market reaction to adverse shocks to Sino-Japanese relations in 2005 and 2010. Japanese companies with high China exposure suffer relative declines during each event window; a symmetric effect is observed for Chinese companies with high Japanese exposure. The effect on Japanese companies is more pronounced for those operating in industries dominated by Chinese state-owned enterprises, whereas firms with high Chinese employment experience lower declines. These results emphasize the role of countries' economic and political institutions in mediating the impact of interstate frictions on firm-level outcomes.

Corruption in Chinese Privatizations (with Yongxiang Wang), Journal of Law, Economics, and Organizations, 2014

中国私有化过程中的腐败

We document evidence of corruption in Chinese state asset sales. These sales involved stakes in partially privatized firms, providing a benchmark—the price of publicly traded shares—to measure underpricing. Underpricing is correlated with deal attributes associated with misgovernance and corruption. Sales by “disguised” owners that misrepresent their state ownership to elude regulatory scrutiny are discounted 5–7 percentage points more than sales by other owners; related party transactions are similarly discounted. Analysis of subsequent operating performance provides suggestive evidence that aggregate ownership transfers improve profitability, though not in cases where the transfers themselves were corrupted.

Profiting from Government Stakes in a Command Economy: Evidence from Chinese Asset Sales (with Charles Calomiris and Yongxiang Wang), Journal of Financial Economics, 2011.

在命令经济中从政府股份中获利：来自中国资产售卖的证据

We examine the market response to an unexpected announcement of the sale of government-owned shares in China. In contrast to earlier work, we find a negative effect of government ownership on returns at the announcement date and a symmetric positive effect from the policy's cancellation. We suggest that this results from the absence of a Chinese political transition to accompany economic reforms, so that the benefits of political ties outweigh the efficiency costs of government shareholdings. Companies managed by former government officials have positive abnormal returns, suggesting that personal ties can substitute for government ownership as a source of connections.

Tax Rates and Tax Evasion: Evidence from “Missing” Imports in China(with Shang-Jin Wei),Journal of Political Economy, 2004.

税率越高，逃税越多——来自中国的实证证据

Tax evasion, by its very nature, is difficult to observe. We quantify the effects of tax rates on tax evasion by examining the relationship in China between the tariff schedule and the “evasion gap,” which we define as the difference between Hong Kong’s reported exports to China at the product level and China’s reported imports from Hong Kong. Our results imply that a one‐percentage‐point increase in the tax rate is associated with a 3 percent increase in evasion. Furthermore, the evasion gap is negatively correlated with tax rates on closely related products, suggesting that evasion takes place partly through misclassification of imports from higher‐taxed categories to lower‐taxed ones, in addition to underreporting the value of imports.

Trading favors within Chinese business groups, (with R. Fisman), American Economic Review (Papers&Proceedings), 2010.

中国商业集团内部的贸易优惠

Target setting and allocative inefficiency in lending: Evidence from Two Chinese Banks (with Y. Cao, R. Fisman and H. Lin), 2018, NBER Working Paper W24961

贷款目标设定与分配效率低下：来自两家中国银行的证据

Superstition and Risk-taking: Evidence from “Zodiac Year” Investment in China (with R. Fisman, W.Huang and Y. Pan), July 2019

迷信与冒险：来自中国“十二生肖年”投资的证据

Hometown favoritism and the quality of government monitoring: Evidence from rotation of Chinese auditors (with J. Chu, R. Fisman and S. Tan), Oct 2019, R&R at American Economic Journal: Applied Economics

家乡偏爱与政府监督的质量：来自中国审计师轮换的证据

Ray Fisman发表的文章在谷歌学术上的引用量：

Ray Fisman发表的文章在谷歌学术上的单篇引用量：

还有印度系列研究，各位学者可以自行通过附上的网址查看：https://sites.bu.edu/fisman/research/

长按以上二维码，提前阅读“Social Ties and the Selection of China’s Political Elite”一文。

拓展性阅读 

2月21日，给各位学者引荐了二个数据库的使用指南疫情期Wind资讯金融终端操作指南和CEIC数据库操作指南，参考一下“清华北大经管社科数据库有哪些? 不要羡慕嫉妒恨！”。2月22日，引荐了“估计具有两个高维固定效应的泊松回归模型”，里面包括面板泊松回归、面板负二项回归、控制函数法CF、受限三次样条等等。2月27日，引荐了“哈佛大学新修订完成的因果推断经典大作免费下载！附数据和code！”和“最清晰的内生性问题详解及软件操作方案！实证研究必备工具！”

之前，咱们圈子引荐过一些数据库(当然，社群里的数据库远不止这些)，如下：1.这40个微观数据库够你博士毕业了；2.中国工业企业数据库匹配160大步骤的完整程序和相应数据；3.中国省/地级市夜间灯光数据；4.1997-2014中国市场化指数权威版本；5.1998-2016年中国地级市年均PM2.5；6.计量经济圈经济社会等数据库合集；7.中国方言,官员, 行政审批和省长数据库开放；8.2005-2015中国分省分行业CO2数据；9.国际贸易研究中的数据演进与当代问题；10.经济学研究常用中国微观数据手册。

下面这些短链接文章属于合集，可以收藏起来阅读，不然以后都找不到了。

2年，计量经济圈公众号近1000篇文章，

Econometrics Circle

数据系列：空间矩阵 | 工企数据 | PM2.5 | 市场化指数 | CO2数据 |  夜间灯光 | 官员方言  | 微观数据 |

计量系列：匹配方法 | 内生性 | 工具变量 | DID | 面板数据 | 常用TOOL | 中介调节 | 时间序列 | RDD断点 | 合成控制 | 

数据处理：Stata | R | Python | 缺失值 | CHIP/ CHNS/CHARLS/CFPS/CGSS等 |

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计量经济圈组织了一个计量社群，有如下特征：热情互助最多、前沿趋势最多、社科资料最多、社科数据最多、科研牛人最多、海外名校最多。因此，建议积极进取和有强烈研习激情的中青年学者到社群交流探讨，始终坚信优秀是通过感染优秀而互相成就彼此的。