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关于中国国际经济贸易领域议题，以下为发表在“Journal of International Economics”期刊上的文章。
Asquith, B., et al. (2019). "U.S. job flows and the China shock." Journal of International Economics 118: 123-137.International trade exposure affects job flows along the intensive margin (from expansions and contractions of firms' employment) as well as along the extensive margin (from births and deaths of firms). This paper uses 1992–2011 employment data from U.S. establishments to construct job flows at both the industry and commuting-zone levels, and then estimates the impact of the ‘China shock’ on each job-flow type. Using the two most influential measures of Chinese exposure, we find that the China shock affects U.S. employment mainly through deaths of establishments. At the commuting-zone level, we find evidence of large job reallocation from the Chinese-competition exposed sector to the nonexposed sector. Moreover, we demonstrate that the job-flow effects of the China shock are fundamentally different from those of a more general adverse shock affecting the U.S. demand for domestic labor.Bai, X., et al. (2017). "How you export matters: Export mode, learning and productivity in China." Journal of International Economics 104: 122-137.This paper shows that how firms export (directly or indirectly via intermediaries) matters. We develop and estimate a dynamic discrete choice model that allows learning-by-exporting on the cost and demand side as well as sunk/fixed costs to differ by export mode. We find that demand and productivity evolve more favorably under direct exporting, though the fixed/sunk costs of this option are higher. Our results suggest that had China not liberalized its direct trading rights when it joined the WTO, its exports and export participation would have been 26 and 33% lower respectively.Brandt, L. and P. M. Morrow (2017). "Tariffs and the organization of trade in China." Journal of International Economics 104: 85-103.This paper examines the impact of China's falling import tariffs on the organization of its exports between ordinary and processing trade. These trade forms differ in terms of tariff treatment and the ability of firms to sell on the domestic market. At the industry level, we find that falling input tariffs cause the share of ordinary trade in gross exports to increase, with both the intensive and extensive margins playing roles. The choice of trade form is tied to a lesser degree to the size of the domestic market, which processing firms cannot access. Consistent with the literature, we show that changes in the organization of trade linked to input tariff cuts caused the share of Chinese domestic content in gross exports to increase at the industry-province level.Che, Y., et al. (2015). "Once an enemy, forever an enemy? The long-run impact of the Japanese invasion of China from 1937 to 1945 on trade and investment." Journal of International Economics 96(1): 182-198.In this study, we exploit one of the most important conflicts of the 20th century between what are currently the world's second and third largest economies, that is, the Japanese invasion of China from 1937 to 1945, to investigate the long-term impact of conflicts between countries on cross-border trade and investment. We find that Japanese multinationals are less likely to invest in Chinese regions that suffered greater civilian casualties during the Japanese invasion, and these regions also trade less with Japan. Our study shows that historical animosity still influences international trade and investment, despite the trend toward an increasingly globalized world.Chen, B., et al. (2017). "Measured skill premia and input trade liberalization: Evidence from Chinese firms." Journal of International Economics 109: 31-42.Using Chinese firm-level production data, this paper developed a Mincer (1974)-type approach to investigate the impact of input trade liberalization on firms' wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers (or skill premium). When controlling for product-market tariffs in a firm's industry, we find robust evidence that reduced input tariffs in a firm's industry are associated with a higher skill premium at firms with more skilled workforces. This effect is more pronounced at ordinary (non-processing) firms. We also provide evidence that reduced input tariffs in a firm's industry are associated with higher value added and profits at firms with more skilled workforces.Crowley, M., et al. (2018). "Tariff scares: Trade policy uncertainty and foreign market entry by Chinese firms." Journal of International Economics 114: 96-115.We estimate how a rise in uncertainty about future tariff rates impacts firm decisions to enter into and exit from export markets. Using Chinese customs transactions between 2000 and 2009, we exploit time-variation in product-level trade policy and find that Chinese firms are less likely to enter new foreign markets and more likely to exit from established foreign markets when their products are subject to increased trade policy uncertainty. Our analysis is based on the phenomenon of “tariff echoing” – after a tariff hike in one country, another country is likely to raise its tariff on the same product. Overall, we find that if there had been no trade policy uncertainty created by the use of contingent tariffs, Chinese entry into foreign markets would have been roughly 2% higher per year. We use our model to counterfactually estimate how much entry by Chinese firms over 2001–2009 was due to future trade policy certainty provided by membership in the WTO.Dai, M. and J. Xu (2017). "Firm-specific exchange rate shocks and employment adjustment: Evidence from China." Journal of International Economics 108: 54-66.This paper examines how exchange rate shocks affect intra-industry labor reallocation across firms. Using comprehensive Chinese firm-level data, we examine the employment response to exchange rates of firms that are heterogeneous along two dimensions: external orientation and trading partner distribution. Firm-specific effective exchange rates are constructed to accurately measure exchange rate shocks pertinent to individual firms. We find that exchange rate movements induce significant labor reallocation across firms with different degrees of external orientation and with different trading partners. Trading partner distribution is as important as external orientation in explaining firms' heterogeneous employment response to exchange rates. Compared with effective exchange rate measures at more aggregate levels, using firm-specific effective exchange rates generates estimation results more consistent with theory and substantially increases the estimated impact of exchange rates on intra-industry job reallocation.Du, Y., et al. (2017). "Bilateral trade and shocks in political relations: Evidence from China and some of its major trading partners, 1990–2013." Journal of International Economics 108: 211-225.An extensive number of studies investigate the effects of political relations on trade by estimating a gravity model using annual (or quarterly) data. We argue that the use of low-frequency data introduces an aggregation bias because the cycle of moderate political shocks is much shorter (measured in weeks). Using monthly data from 1990 through 2013 for China, we estimate a model of political relations and conclude that political shocks are short-lived. Narrative evidence from two case studies illustrates the transitory nature of these shocks. A VAR model shows that although political shocks influence exports to China, the effects largely vanish within two months. A comparison of the monthly- and annual-frequency gravity equation regressions illustrates the effects of temporal aggregation.Emlinger, C. and S. Poncet (2018). "With a little help from my friends: Multinational retailers and China's consumer market penetration." Journal of International Economics 112: 1-12.We investigate the supply-side repercussions on Chinese imports after the entry of multinational retailers in China. We exploit sector- and origin-country level import data for a panel of Chinese cities between 1997 and 2012, and differentiate between retailer and non retailer goods and across countries of origin of imports. We find that international global retail presence in Chinese cities produces a disproportionate rise in retail good imports from the retailers' country of origin. Our results point to a trade-cost reducing role of Western retailers that make it easier for foreign retail-good producers from their home country to export to China. Global retailers then act as a bridgehead for the penetration of the Chinese market by producers from their home country, in a way that goes beyond higher sales of imported retail goods by the retailers themselves.Facchini, G., et al. (2019). "China's “Great Migration”: The impact of the reduction in trade policy uncertainty." Journal of International Economics 120: 126-144.We analyze the effect of China's integration into the world economy on workers in the country and show that one important channel of impact has been internal migration. Specifically, we study the changes in internal migration rates triggered by the reduction in trade policy uncertainty faced by Chinese exporters in the U.S. This reduction is characterized by plausibly exogenous variation across products, which we use to construct a local measure of treatment, at the level of a Chinese prefecture, following Bartik (1991). This allows us to estimate a difference-in-difference empirical specification based on variation across Chinese prefectures before and after 2001. We find that prefectures facing the average decline in trade policy uncertainty experienced a 24% increase in their internal in-migration rate – this result is driven by migrants who are “non-hukou”, skilled, and in their prime working age. Finally, in those prefectures, working hours of “native” unskilled workers significantly increased, and internal migrants found employment in the places they migrated to.Fan, H., et al. (2018). "On the relationship between quality and productivity: Evidence from China's accession to the WTO." Journal of International Economics 110: 28-49.This paper presents an analysis of the effect of China's entry into the WTO on the quality choices of Chinese exporters in terms of their outputs and their inputs. Using highly disaggregated firm-level data, we show that the quality upgrading made possible by China's tariff reductions was concentrated in the least productive Chinese exporters. These firms, which had been laggards in terms of quality prior to the tariff reduction, were the most aggressive in increasing the quality of their exports and their inputs and in redirecting their exports toward high income markets where demand for high quality goods is strong. Our empirical results are consistent with a simple model featuring scale effect and non-Hicks' neutral productivity that disproportionately affects the efficiency with which firms use intermediate inputs. This latter feature does not appear in workhorse models of firm heterogeneity and endogenous quality choice which provide a distorted view of the impact of trade liberalization on quality upgrading.Fatum, R., et al. (2018). "Beggar thy neighbor or beggar thy domestic firms? Evidence from 2000 to 2011 Chinese customs data." Journal of International Economics 115: 16-29.A premise of beggar-thy-neighbor policies is that currency depreciations lead to export growth. This premise, however, does not seem validated as there is no consensus in the empirical literature regarding the impact of exchange rate changes on trade flows. We reexamine whether currency fluctuations are systematically associated with trade flows using a rich and unique Chinese customs dataset spanning the universe of bilateral Chinese transaction level trades over the 2000 to 2011 period. This dataset allows us to consider firm-level involvement in processing trade and firm-level dynamics in both export and import markets. Key findings of our firm-level estimations of trade elasticities include that the response of Chinese firms to exchanges rate changes depends strongly on the extent to which firms are involved in processing trade, i.e. heterogeneity in the extent of processing trade is crucial to understanding trade elasticities, and that the Chinese trade balance responds strongly to changes in the relative value of the Chinese Yuan, thereby implying that the influence of exchange rates on trade flows is significant and that currency depreciations do in fact lead to export growth and trade balance improvement.Feng, L., et al. (2016). "The connection between imported intermediate inputs and exports: Evidence from Chinese firms." Journal of International Economics 101: 86-101.We use Chinese manufacturing firm data to estimate the causal effect of increased imported intermediate input use on firm export outcomes. To account for the endogeneity of import decisions, we pursue an IV strategy that utilizes instruments for import costs connected to intermediate input import tariffs, exchange rates, and firm differences in fixed trade costs. We find that firms that expanded their intermediate input imports expanded the volume and scope of their exports. Further, we find that the benefit of imported inputs differed along a number of dimensions including initial trade status, import source country, export destination, firm ownership, and industry R&D intensity. Although increased imports of intermediates boosted exports by all firms, we find that the effects were largest when they were purchased by private firms or firms that started out as non-traders. In addition, intermediate inputs from the higher-income G7 countries were especially helpful in facilitating firm exports to the presumably more-demanding G7 export markets. Taken together, these results suggest that product upgrading facilitated by technology or quality embedded in imported inputs helped Chinese firms to increase the scale and breadth of their participation in export markets.Feng, L., et al. (2017). "Trade policy uncertainty and exports: Evidence from China's WTO accession." Journal of International Economics 106: 20-36.This paper studies how reduction in trade policy uncertainty affects firm export decisions. Using a firm–product level dataset on Chinese exports to the United States and the European Union in the years surrounding China's WTO accession, we provide strong evidence that reduction in trade policy uncertainty simultaneously induced firm entries to and firm exits from export activity within fine product-level markets. In addition, we uncover accompanying changes in export product prices and quality that coincided with this reallocation: firms that provided higher quality products at lower prices entered the export market, while firms that had higher prices and provided lower quality products prior to the changes, exited. To explain the simultaneous export entries and exits, as well as the fact that new entrants are more productive than exiters, we provide a model of heterogeneous firms which incorporates trade policy uncertainty, tracing the effects of the changes in policy uncertainty on firm-level payoffs and the resulting selection effects.Ferrantino, M. J., et al. (2012). "Evasion behaviors of exporters and importers: Evidence from the U.S.–China trade data discrepancy." Journal of International Economics 86(1): 141-157.Since the late 1990s, reported U.S. imports from China and Hong Kong have regularly and increasingly exceeded reported exports of China and Hong Kong to the United States. This discrepancy, which is not caused by re-exporting through Hong Kong, varies by product categories, and in some cases takes the opposite sign. In this paper, we focus on China's direct exports to the United States. Using a model that allows for simultaneous misreporting to two authorities, we find strong statistical evidence of under-reporting exports at the Chinese border to avoid paying value-added tax (VAT). The value of VAT avoided is estimated at $6.5 billion during 2002–2008, and the associated understatements account for approximately two-thirds of the discrepancy. We also provide evidence of tariff evasion at the U.S. border, in particular for related-party transactions, and indirect evidence of transfer pricing and evasion of Chinese capital controls. An estimated $2 billion of U.S. tariff revenue is lost due to such evasion during 2002–2008, which reduces the apparent size of the statistical discrepancy.Gan, L., et al. (2016). "The higher costs of doing business in China: Minimum wages and firms' export behavior." Journal of International Economics 100: 81-94.This paper examines the relationship between changes in the minimum wage and firms' export behavior in China using detailed firm-level data of medium and large manufacturing enterprises between 1998 and 2007. We find that a 10% increase in the minimum wage is associated with a 0.9 percentage-points decrease in the probability of exporting goods and a 0.9% decline in export sales, conditional on exporting. These findings are generally robust to alternative estimation methods and data sources. We further observe a larger decline among firms with lower average wages and a lower capital–labor ratio. The results suggest that Chinese exports and comparative advantage in international markets are not negligibly affected by higher local labor costs and regulations measured through raises in minimum wage standards.Garred, J. (2018). "The persistence of trade policy in China after WTO accession." Journal of International Economics 114: 130-142.Import tariffs have fallen steeply worldwide over the last several decades, but has trade policy persisted through a rise in the use of other instruments? I study this question in the context of China's 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization, using panel data on Chinese export policies. I find that after its entry into WTO, the distribution of China's export restrictions across industries increasingly resembles the inverse of its pre-WTO import tariff schedule. The evidence suggests that increases in export restrictions are likely to have partly restored China's pre-WTO trade policy.Han, J., et al. (2016). "Market structure, imperfect tariff pass-through, and household welfare in Urban China." Journal of International Economics 100: 220-232.This paper investigates the tariff pass-through mechanism and the distributional effects of trade liberalization in urban China. We study how market structure, specifically the size of the private sector, affects tariff pass-through, and how this mechanism influenced the extent to which households benefited from the trade liberalization. Our results suggest that a higher share of private sector in Chinese cities is associated with higher levels of tariff pass-through rates. This effect works both through the distribution sector, and through the production of final goods. By incorporating the changes in consumer prices of tradable and non-tradable goods, we next investigate the impact of WTO accession on household welfare through changes in the cost of consumption. The results show that WTO accession of China was associated with welfare gains to almost every household across the per capita expenditure spectrum, and that the distributional effect is strongly pro-poor. The average welfare gain of WTO accession on Chinese households is estimated to be 7.3%. The distributional effect through higher levels of privatization was also pro-poor, indicating that privatization enhanced the pro-poor impact of trade liberalization.Han, J., et al. (2012). "Globalization and wage inequality: Evidence from urban China." Journal of International Economics 87(2): 288-297.This paper examines the impact of globalization on wage inequality using Chinese Urban Household Survey data from 1988 to 2008. Exploring two trade liberalization shocks, Deng Xiaoping's Southern Tour in 1992 and China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, we analyze whether regions more exposed to globalization experienced larger changes in wage inequality than less-exposed regions. Contrary to the predictions of the Heckscher–Ohlin model, we find that the WTO accession was significantly associated with rising wage inequality. We further show that both trade liberalizations contributed to within-region inequality by raising the returns to education (the returns to high school after 1992 and the returns to college after 2001).Head, K., et al. (2017). "Import sourcing of Chinese cities: Order versus randomness." Journal of International Economics 105: 119-129.Capitalizing on the geographic detail of Chinese customs data, we show that buyer heterogeneity plays a major role in import sourcing. Hierarchy compliance, a core prediction of supply-focused models, is tested by measuring the frequency with which cities import a narrowly defined good from the country observed to be the preferred source in the province. Hierarchy violation is widespread: 92% of province goods have at least one non-compliant city. We show that introducing granular importers into a standard heterogeneous firm model leads to a prediction of 73% compliance, close to the observed average of 66%. Extending the model to allow buyers from a city to share an orientation towards specific source countries, we calibrate a heterogeneity parameter to match the average observed compliance rate. The results imply that the supply side explains on average 44% of the variance in city-level sourcing probabilities, leaving the majority of variation due to heterogeneity in buyers across cities.Hsieh, C.-T. and R. Ossa (2016). "A global view of productivity growth in China." Journal of International Economics 102: 209-224.How does a country's productivity growth affect worldwide real incomes through international trade? In this paper, we take this classic question to the data by measuring the spillover effects of China's productivity growth. Using a quantitative trade model, we first estimate China's productivity growth between 1995 and 2007 and then isolate what would have happened to real incomes around the world if only China's productivity had changed. We find that the spillover effects are small for all countries in our sample, ranging from a cumulative real income loss of at most −0.2% to a cumulative real income gain of at most 0.2%.Hsu, W.-T., et al. (2020). "Competition, markups, and gains from trade: A quantitative analysis of China between 1995 and 2004." Journal of International Economics 122: 103266.This paper provides a quantitative analysis of gains from trade in a model with head-to-head competition using Chinese firm-level data from Economic Censuses in 1995 and 2004. We find a significant reduction in trade cost during this period, and total gains from such improved openness during this period is 7.1%. The gains are decomposed into a Ricardian component and two pro-competitive ones. The pro-competitive effects account for 20% of the total gains. Moreover, the total gains from trade are 13 − 31% larger than what would result from the formula provided by ACR (Arkolakis et al., 2012), which nests a class of important trade models, but without pro-competitive effects. We find that head-to-head competition is the key reason behind the larger gains, as trade flows do not reflect all of the effects via markups in an event of trade liberalization.Iacovone, L., et al. (2013). "Trade as an engine of creative destruction: Mexican experience with Chinese competition." Journal of International Economics 89(2): 379-392.This paper exploits the surge in Chinese exports from 1994 to 2004 to evaluate the effects of a competition shock from a low wage competitor for producers in an important middle-income country, Mexico. We find that this shock causes selection and reallocation at both firm and product levels and that its impact is highly heterogeneous at the intensive and extensive margins. Sales of smaller plants and more marginal products are compressed and are more likely to cease, whereas those of larger plants and core products seem relatively impervious to the shock. This implies a reallocation in terms of market shares within firms and between firms. We also show that the impact of expanded access to cheaper Chinese intermediate inputs has a similar effect, with larger plants benefiting more from the availability of cheaper imported inputs.Jabbour, L., et al. (2019). "The good, the bad and the ugly: Chinese imports, European Union anti-dumping measures and firm performance." Journal of International Economics 117: 1-20.This paper analyses the effects of the European Union's anti-dumping tariffs against Chinese imports on all affected firms: “the good” European import-competing firms, “the bad” Chinese exporters and “the ugly” European importers of dumped products. The results show that temporary import tariffs are beneficial to the least productive “good” EU producers, but harms the most productive “ugly” EU importers. Overall, the net effects of anti-dumping policy on European employment and exports are largely negative. Also tariffs enhance the productivity of surviving “bad” Chinese exporters and widens the productivity gap with European competitors.Jacks, D. S., et al. (2017). "Silver points, silver flows, and the measure of Chinese financial integration." Journal of International Economics 108: 377-386.To what degree were Chinese financial markets integrated with the rest of the world prior to the 1949 Revolution and to what extent was the Chinese foreign exchange market efficient during this period? We estimate silver points for the Shanghai market from 1905 to 1933 to answer these questions. Our inferred measures are small in value, favorably match measured costs of the silver trade derived from contemporary accounts, and fare well in the comparison to estimates of trans-Atlantic gold points. This leads to the conclusion that the degree of Chinese financial market integration was substantial. However, during and immediately after World War I, our estimates of the silver points increased appreciably, foreshadowing the collapse of China's linkages to world financial markets beginning in the 1930s.Li, B. (2018). "Export expansion, skill acquisition and industry specialization: evidence from china." Journal of International Economics 114: 346-361.This paper studies the impact of export expansion due to the decline in tariffs faced by exporters on human capital accumulation across China. Following a theoretically consistent approach, I construct regional measures of high- and low-skill export demand shocks using the variation in initial industry composition across regions and differential skill intensities across industries. Using a sub-national data over the period 1990 to 2005, the empirical analysis shows that high-skill export shocks raise both high school and college enrollments, while low-skill export shocks depress both. These relationships appear to be attributable to the association between skill premium and skill demand embodied in export shocks. The amplified differences in skill abundance across regions reinforce the initial industry specialization patterns. These findings suggest a mutually reinforcing relationship between regional industry specialization and skill formation.Li, H., et al. (2015). "How do exchange rate movements affect Chinese exports? — A firm-level investigation." Journal of International Economics 97(1): 148-161.This paper provides first-hand firm-level evidence on Chinese exporters' reaction to RMB exchange rate movements. We find that the RMB price response to exchange rate changes is very small, indicating relatively high exchange rate pass-through into foreign currency denominated prices, while the volume response is moderate and significant. Furthermore, exporters with higher productivity price more to market, though the pass-through is still very high. Other sources of heterogeneity, such as import intensity, distribution costs, income level of the destination countries, and foreign ownership also matter. Moreover, RMB appreciation reduces the probability of entry as well as the probability of continuing in the export market.Liu, Q. and Y. Lu (2015). "Firm investment and exporting: Evidence from China's value-added tax reform." Journal of International Economics 97(2): 392-403.This paper contributes to the literature by identifying the causal effect of firm investment on exporting behavior. The identification hinges on regional variations in the 2004 value-added tax pilot reform in China, which generated positive investment shocks. The instrumental variable estimation results show that firm investment significantly and substantially increases the likelihood of exporting, and this effect is largely due to the positive effect of firm investment on firm productivity. Finally, the paper documents some heterogeneity of the effect across industries with different degrees of competition and financial constraints.Liu, Q. and L. D. Qiu (2016). "Intermediate input imports and innovations: Evidence from Chinese firms' patent filings." Journal of International Economics 103: 166-183.Innovation plays a key role in economic growth. In this paper, we investigate the effects of intermediate input tariff reduction on the innovation activities of domestic firms. Input tariff reduction has two opposite effects on the innovation decision of a firm: it may promote innovation because the cost of innovation activities decreases, but it may also result in a decrease in innovation because foreign technologies become cheaper. We use Chinese firm-level data from 1998 to 2007, which features a drastic input tariff cut in 2002 because of China's WTO accession, and find that input tariff cut results in less innovation undertaken by Chinese firms. The findings are obtained using the difference-in-differences technique and are robust to various specifications checks of the model. We also provide a theoretical framework to generate insights to the empirical findings.Liu, Q., et al. (2019). "Trade liberalization and domestic vertical integration: Evidence from China." Journal of International Economics 121: 103250.In this study we examine the effects of trade liberalization on domestic backward vertical integration in which a domestic upstream firm (target) is acquired by a domestic downstream firm. We first build a relationship-specific investment model to guide and provide insights to our empirical work. Then we take China's accession to the WTO as a quasi-natural experiment for trade liberalization to test the theoretical predictions. Consistent with the model, we find that a decrease in tariffs on the target industry's outputs reduces vertical integrations, but a decrease in tariffs on the target industry's inputs increases vertical integrations. The findings are robust to various specifications of the empirical model and measurements of the variables. We further show that underinvestment problem is an important mechanism to understanding the effects of tariff reductions on firms' organizational choices.Long, C. and X. Zhang (2011). "Cluster-based industrialization in China: Financing and performance." Journal of International Economics 84(1): 112-123.China's rapid industrialization despite the lack of a well developed financial system seems to defy the conventional thinking on the role of finance in development. This paper tries to explain the puzzle from the clustering point of view. Based on firm-level data from two recent censuses, we find that within industrial clusters: finer division of labor lowers the capital barriers to entry; closer proximity makes the provision of trade credit among firms easier. With less reliance on external financing, more small firms emerge within clusters, leading to higher levels of export and total factor productivity thanks to the resultant more fierce competition.Lu, Y., et al. (2018). "Exposure to Chinese imports and media slant: Evidence from 147 U.S. local newspapers over 1998–2012." Journal of International Economics 114: 316-330.Does the recent surge in Chinese imports affect the media slant against China in the United States? Using a data set of 147 U.S. local newspapers over 1998–2012, this paper shows that newspapers whose circulation counties face greater exposure to Chinese imports report more negative news about China, and are more likely to endorse Democrats. The results hold with two identification strategies and three measures of media slant. The paper further shows that, in U.S. House and Senate elections between 2000 and 2012, media slant is associated with increased voting shares for Democrats, who are traditionally champions for the poor and critical of globalization.Ma, Y., et al. (2014). "Factor Intensity, product switching, and productivity: Evidence from Chinese exporters." Journal of International Economics 92(2): 349-362.This paper analyzes how a firm's specialization in its core products after exporting affects its factor intensity and productivity. Using Chinese manufacturing firm data for the 1998–2007 period, we find that firms become less capital-intensive but more productive after exporting, compared to non-exporters that share similar ex ante characteristics. To rationalize these findings that contrast with existing studies, we develop a variant of the model by Bernard, Redding, and Schott (2010, 2011) to consider firms producing multiple products with varying capital intensity. The model predicts that when a firm in a labor-abundant country starts exporting, it specializes in its core competencies by allocating more resources to produce more labor-intensive products. Firm ex ante productivity is associated with a smaller decline in capital intensity after exporting. A sharper post-export decline in capital intensity is associated with a larger increase in measured total factor productivity. We find firm-level evidence supporting these predictions. Using transaction-level data for the 2000–2006 period, we show that Chinese new exporters add products that are less capital-intensive than their existing products and drop those that are more capital-intensive in subsequent years.Mion, G. and L. Zhu (2013). "Import competition from and offshoring to China: A curse or blessing for firms?" Journal of International Economics 89(1): 202-215.We use Belgian manufacturing firm-level data over the period 1996–2007 to analyze the impact of imports from different origins on firm employment growth, exit, and skill upgrading. For this purpose, we use both industry-level and firm-level imports by country of origin and further distinguish between firm-level offshoring of final versus intermediate goods. Results indicate that China is different from both other low-wage and OECD countries. Industry-level import competition from China reduces firm employment growth and induce skill upgrading in low-tech manufacturing industries. On the other hand, import competition has no effect on firm survival, while offshoring of finished goods to China actually increases firms' probability of survival. In terms of skill upgrading, the effect of Chinese imports is large. Import competition from China accounts for 27% (48%) of the total observed increase – within and between firms – in the share of non-production (highly educated) workers in low-tech Belgian manufacturing over our period of analysis. Offshoring to China further accounts for a small but significant increase in the share of non-production workers.Wang, J. and X. Wang (2015). "Benefits of foreign ownership: Evidence from foreign direct investment in China." Journal of International Economics 97(2): 325-338.To examine the effect of foreign direct investment, this paper compares the post-acquisition performance changes of foreign- and domestic-acquired firms in China. Unlike previous studies, we investigate the purified effect of foreign ownership by using domestic-acquired firms as the control group. After controlling for the acquisition effect that exists in domestic acquisitions, we find no evidence that foreign ownership can bring additional productivity gains to target firms, though both foreign and domestic acquisitions bring productivity improvements to target firms. In contrast, a strong and robust finding is that foreign ownership significantly improves target firms' financial conditions and exports relative to domestic-acquired firms. Foreign acquisition is also found to improve output, employment and wages for target firms. These findings conflict with the conventional view of productivity-driven FDI and highlight the financial channel through which FDI benefits the host countries.关于中国国际经济贸易领域议题，以下为发表在“International Economic Review”期刊上的文章。Han, B., et al. (2018). "HOUSING PRICE AND FUNDAMENTALS IN A TRANSITION ECONOMY: THE CASE OF THE BEIJING MARKET." International Economic Review 59(3): 1653-1677.Abstract This article develops a dynamic rational expectations general equilibrium framework that links house value to fundamental economic variables such as income growth, demographics, migration, and land supply. Our framework handles nonstationary dynamics as well as structural changes in fundamentals that are commonplace in transition economies. Applying the framework to Beijing, we find that the equilibrium house price and rent under reasonable parameterizations of the model are substantially lower than the data. We explore potential explanations for the discrepancies between the model and the data.Ho, C.-Y. (2015). "SWITCHING COST AND DEPOSIT DEMAND IN CHINA." International Economic Review 56(3): 723-749.This article develops and estimates a dynamic model of consumer demand for deposits in which banks provide differentiated products and product characteristics that evolve over time. The switching cost is 0.8% of the deposit's value, which leads the static model to bias the demand estimates. The dynamic model shows that the price elasticity over a long time horizon is larger than the same elasticity over a short time horizon. Counterfactual experiments with a dynamic monopoly show that reducing the switching cost has a comparable competitive effect on bank pricing as a result of reducing the dominant position of the monopoly.İmrohoroğlu, A. and K. Zhao (2019). "HOUSEHOLD SAVING, FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS, AND THE CURRENT ACCOUNT IN CHINA." International Economic Review n/a(n/a).Abstract In this article, we present a model that can account for the changes in the current account balance in China since the 2000s. Our results suggest that inadequate insurance through government programs for the elderly and the decline in family insurance due to the one-child policy led to large increases in the household saving rate. These increases coupled with the financial frictions preventing the household saving from being invested in domestic firms resulted in large current account surpluses until 2008. Relaxation of financial constraints, on the other hand, was responsible for the decline in the current account surplus after 2008.Jin, S., et al. (2005). "ECONOMIES OF SCALE AND SCOPE AND THE ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY OF CHINA'S AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH SYSTEM*." International Economic Review 46(3): 1033-1057.This article investigates economies of scale and scope and other potential sources of improvements in the economic efficiency of China's crop breeding, an industry at the heart of the nation's food economy. Using data covering 46 wheat- and maize-breeding institutes from 1981 to 2000, we estimate cost functions for the production of new varieties at China's wheat- and maize-breeding institutes. Our results indicate strong economies of scale, along with small to moderate economies of scope related to the joint production of new wheat and maize varieties. Cost efficiency increases significantly with increases in the breeders' educational status and with increases in access to genetic materials from outside the institute.Ko, C. Y., et al. (2018). "UNIFIED CHINA AND DIVIDED EUROPE." International Economic Review 59(1): 285-327.Abstract This article studies the causes and consequences of political centralization and fragmentation in China and Europe. We argue that a severe and unidirectional threat of external invasion fostered centralization in China, whereas Europe faced a wider variety of smaller external threats and remained fragmented. Political centralization in China led to lower taxation and hence faster population growth during peacetime compared to Europe. But it also meant that China was more vulnerable to occasional negative population shocks. Our results are consistent with historical evidence of warfare, capital city location, tax levels, and population growth in both China and Europe.Li, S. and X. Weng (2017). "RANDOM AUTHORITY." International Economic Review 58(1): 211-235.This article rationalizes matrix management in a multiproject organization in which decisions must be adapted to local conditions but also coordinated with each other. Project managers are privately informed about local conditions and communicate strategically via cheap talk. Matrix management is modeled as a randomization over deterministic authority allocations. We show that random authority is strictly optimal when the conflict between adaptation and coordination is very severe or the coordination need is very small. Moreover, the optimal degree of delegation changes nonmonotonically in the coordination need when the incentives of the project managers are sufficiently aligned.Mitchener, K. J. and S. E. Yan (2014). "GLOBALIZATION, TRADE, AND WAGES: WHAT DOES HISTORY TELL US ABOUT CHINA?" International Economic Review 55(1): 131-168.Newly assembled data show that, as China opened up to global trade during the early 20th century, its exports became more unskilled-intensive and its imports more skill-intensive. Difference-in-differences estimates show that World War I dramatically increased Chinese exports, raising the relative demand for the unskilled workers producing them. When the war ended, trade costs declined and China's terms of trade increased, further stimulating exports. A simulation of a dynamic general equilibrium model demonstrates that the effects of the war on China's terms of trade produces a decline in the skill premium similar to what China experienced in the 1920s.Newberry, P. and X. Zhou (2019). "HETEROGENEOUS EFFECTS OF ONLINE REPUTATION FOR LOCAL AND NATIONAL RETAILERS." International Economic Review 60(4): 1565-1587.Abstract We study the heterogeneous effect of online reputation for sellers that differ in their national presence and examine how this heterogeneity affects the distribution of sales on a large Chinese platform. We estimate a demand model that incorporates a learning process and allow for the process to vary across sellers who are differentiated by their national presence. The estimates suggest that the impact of reputation is larger for local sellers. Using these estimates, we find that removing the reputation system would result in large shift of demand from local sellers to national sellers.Rodrigue, J. and Y. Tan (2019). "PRICE, PRODUCT QUALITY, AND EXPORTER DYNAMICS: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA." International Economic Review 60(4): 1911-1955.Abstract This article develops a model of heterogeneous firms that endogenously choose prices and product quality to build demand in export markets. New exporters optimally charge relatively low prices and produce low-quality goods upon entry. Product quality, prices, and sales increase as demand grows. We structurally estimate model parameters using Chinese customs data. The estimated incentive to build future demand reduces average export prices by 0.7% and increases export sales by 4% upon entry. Endogenous demand accumulation causes estimated export prices, product quality, and sales to grow by 2.2%, 12%, and 79%, respectively, over the following five years.Weiss, Y., et al. (2018). "CROSS-BORDER MARRIAGE COSTS AND MARRIAGE BEHAVIOR: THEORY AND EVIDENCE." International Economic Review 59(2): 757-784.Abstract This article analyzes cross-border marriages between mainland China and Hong Kong (HK). We examine the effects of a reduction in cross-border marriage costs following an increase in marriage-migration quotas and the handover of HK to China. We find that cross-border marriages mainly involve men from the low tail of the HK attribute distribution. We also find that HK women's position in the marriage market and within households deteriorated following the reduction in cross-border marriage costs and that their disadvantaged position exerts an incentive effect on their labor market behavior. These outcomes are consistent with our matching model.Xiao, J., et al. (2017). "WELFARE ANALYSIS OF THE VEHICLE QUOTA SYSTEM IN CHINA." International Economic Review 58(2): 617-650.This article presents a welfare analysis of the vehicle quota system of Shanghai, China. The empirical findings suggest that the quota system leads to both welfare loss as a result of reduction in vehicle transactions and welfare gain because of less externality of auto consumption. The net effect depends on the shadow price of the marginal externality, the assumption of vehicle lifetime, and market conditions such as consumers' intrinsic preference for vehicles. Compared to a progressive tax system, the quota system is less effective in vehicle control but more efficient in improving social welfare.Yang, C.-L., et al. (2017). "EFFICIENT LARGE-SIZE COORDINATION VIA VOLUNTARY GROUP FORMATION: AN EXPERIMENT." International Economic Review 58(2): 651-668.Efficient coordination in large groups is a fundamental issue in economic organizations. We consider the weak-link game with the feature of economies of scale that is necessary for voluntary group growth, in a minimal setup with exit and merger options. We show that large groups with efficient outcomes prevail in most communities. Seed groups form that seem to set a norm of both maximal effort level and mutual trust that there will be no panic when seeing noisy dips. Initial doubters are eventually converted into norm abiders. A restart further speeds up the process of coordination success.关于中国国际经济贸易领域议题，以下为发表在“China Economic Review”期刊上的文章。Beestermöller, M., et al. (2018). "Impact of European food safety border inspections on agri-food exports: Evidence from Chinese firms." China Economic Review 48: 66-82.The cost of complying with a sanitary standard is certain. However, such measure introduces uncertainty for exporters in relation to border rejections. Shipments may fail to pass inspections and may be refused entry into the importing country. This risk is shaped by variance in the quality of the exported product, and the stringency of the border controls. We examine how the risk of rejection at European borders on safety grounds is affecting Chinese agri-food exporters. We combine information from the European Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed with Chinese firm-level export data by product, destination and year for the period 2000–2011. Information externalities and reputation effects are important. Border rejections amplify the turnover among firms at the extensive margin of trade. This risk is curbing small exporters and resulting in a concentration of Chinese exports among big exporters.Bouvet, F., et al. (2017). "Tariff and exchange rate pass-through for Chinese exports: A firm-level analysis across customs regimes." China Economic Review 46: 87-96.We examine whether a firm's import content share differentially affects the degree of tariff and exchange rate pass-through into its export prices. Our pricing-to-market model suggests that a firm's import content share negatively affects the degree of exchange rate pass-through but does not affect the degree of tariff pass-through. Using firm-level data for Chinese exporting firms during the period 2000–2006, we find evidence of an almost complete exchange rate pass-through. As expected, when we distinguish firms by their trade regime, processing-trade firms, especially pure-assembly firms which tend to have higher import-content share, have a lower exchange rate pass-through than ordinary trade firms. We find no evidence that the tariff pass-through differs across the various trade regimes.Chen, X., et al. (2012). "Domestic value added and employment generated by Chinese exports: A quantitative estimation." China Economic Review 23(4): 850-864.We develop an input–output methodology to estimate how Chinese exports affected the country's total domestic value added (DVA) and employment in the years 2002 and 2007. For every US$1000 dollar of Chinese exports in 2007 (2002), DVA and employment are estimated to be US$591 (US$466) and 0.096 (0.242) person-year, respectively. To implement these estimations, we use hitherto unpublished Chinese government data to construct several completely new datasets, including an input–output table with separate input–output and employment-output coefficients for processing exports, non-processing exports, and output for domestic use. We hypothesize that, in comparison with the export sector, China's domestic sector would be relatively autarkic due to China's history of central planning. We expect that exports would generate less DVA and employment than output for domestic use. Processing exports, which are highly dependent on imported inputs, would similarly generate less DVA and employment than non-processing exports. Our findings support these expectations. For both 2002 and 2007, the DVA and employment effects of domestic final demand were higher than those of non-processing exports, which were in turn higher than those of processing exports. However, with the progress of economic reforms, we found that the total DVAs of exports and domestic final demand have converged from 2002 to 2007.Dai, X., et al. (2018). "Disentangling the effects of endogenous export and innovation on the performance of Chinese manufacturing firms." China Economic Review 50: 42-58.This paper disentangles the effects of export and innovation on firm-level markup and productivity. Based on a large sample of Chinese manufacturing firms, we explicitly account for firms' endogenous export and innovation decisions, and isolate their impacts on firms' future performance, using a propensity score matching approach with multiple treatments. The results indicate that starting to export alone negatively affects firm-level markup and productivity, while starting to innovate alone has a significant positive impact. There is a complementarity between export and innovation in improving firms' performance. The negative effect of starting to export alone on revenue productivity may reflect the decrease of price-cost markup, rather than a change in physical productivity. Our study contributes to explaining puzzling results of exporter performance for China. The results also suggest that firms should establish domestic market power through innovation before turning to export markets.Gao, Y., et al. (2014). "Decomposing China's export growth into extensive margin, export quality and quantity effects." China Economic Review 29: 19-26.This paper decomposes the growth of China's export into three parts: growth in extensive margin, increased quantity and increased prices; we perform a series of empirical analyses using China's export data at the HS-6 digit level to analyze the characteristics of China's export growth. China's export growth depends more and more on price increases, less and less on quantity expansion. Compared with the rest of world, China's export price is in the process of improving, not at an increasing speed but at a declining pace. China's export performance is better than the rest of the world after the financial crisis and in 2008–2010. This reflects a strategy of lowering price and promoting sales in 2009 when facing a slump in export markets; and resuming price increases and increasing sales moderately in reaction to improving export conditions in 2010.Gourdon, J., et al. (2016). "Trade policy and industrial policy in China: What motivates public authorities to apply restrictions on exports?" China Economic Review 40: 105-120.This paper investigates the motives behind China's fiscal policy targeting exports. It relies on detailed data at the product level over the period 2002–2012. We analyze two major export fiscal instruments: export tax and export VAT rebate. Our results suggest that while pursuing many objectives simultaneously, Chinese policy used the two instruments in a complementary way with the aim of achieving their industrial policy and strategic objectives. Some are officially stated objectives such as promoting technology or environmental protection, while others do not appear in official documents, such as subsidizing downstream sectors. We also observed that China managed these instruments dynamically to address temporary shocks, for example to temper rising food price or to support strategic sectors sensitive to price competitiveness in the middle of the financial crisis.Hu, C. and Y. Tan (2016). "Export spillovers and export performance in China." China Economic Review 41: 75-89.This paper examines the local export spillover effect on the individual decisions to start exporting (the extensive margin) and export volume (the intensive margin), using a unique dataset of Chinese export firms, at the product-level and by destination country. Based on a gravity-type equation estimated at firm-level, we find that export spillovers positively influence not only the decision of a nearby firm to start exporting, but also the volume of the exporting. Several methods are used to verify the robustness of these results. In addition, we find that the effect of export spillovers is stronger when it is product-destination-specific than that when it is either product or destination-specific alone, and also stronger than that is in general. Geographically, local export spillovers exhibit spatial decay in China: the effect is stronger for firms located in the same city than it is for firms outside the city. Small and multi-product firms are more likely to be influenced by the local export spillovers, and their impact is stronger for firms exporting complex goods and exporting to easy-entry countries. Moreover, the export spillovers from private firms are the strongest, followed by foreign-invested firms with the effect generated by state-owned firms ranking last.Hu, C. and Y. Tan (2016). "Product differentiation, export participation and productivity growth: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms." China Economic Review 41: 234-252.In this paper, we investigate how the degree of export participation and product differentiation affect firms' productivity growth through learning-by-exporting. We extend the model of Melitz and Ottaviano (2008) to endogenize the effort firms allocate to learning. This effort choice depends on both the degree to which firms enter export markets and the extent to which products are differentiated across producers. Using a firm-level dataset from China's manufacturing industries, we implement propensity score matching methods to test the model's predictions. Our results indicate that the degree of export participation is positively correlated with TFP improvements. Simultaneously, we empirically verify that firms exporting less differentiated products experience faster TFP growth than those exporting more differentiated products.Li, C. and J. Lu (2018). "R&D, financing constraints and export green-sophistication in China." China Economic Review 47: 234-244.This paper provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of the effects of R&D and financing constraints on the green-sophistication of Chinese firm exports. The theoretical model predicts that firms' R&D expenditure improves the level of green sophistication and financing constraints have moderating effects on firms' the export green-sophistication. The paper constructs an index of the export green-sophistication by incorporating green coefficient in traditional export sophistication. We use the data from the China industrial firm database and confirm our theoretical predictions. The financing constraints are found to have a significant moderating effects on the relationship between R&D and export green-sophistication in basic test and robustness check.Liu, B. J. (2017). "Do bigger and older firms learn more from exporting? — Evidence from China." China Economic Review 45: 89-102.The literature has extensively discussed whether firms benefit from exporting (referred to as the learning-by-exporting (LBE) effect), but the empirical evidence is inconclusive. This paper draws on firm experience (age) to explain this question by using Chinese firm-level data for the period 1998–2007 to examine whether younger firms learn more from exporting than older firms. Employing propensity score matching and the difference-in-difference approach, we show significant LBE effects for older firms, especially those engaging in R&D activities, having large-scale production, and under private ownership. However, the yearly or cumulative LBE effects are either insignificant or rather limited for younger firms regardless of their R&D status and firm size.Xing, Y. (2018). "Rising wages, yuan's appreciation and China's processing exports." China Economic Review 48: 114-122.This study investigates the impact of rising wage and the appreciation of the yuan on the structure of China's exports. China's exports are classified here as ordinary exports (OE), and two distinctive groups of processing exports, pure assembly exports (PAE) and mixed assembly exports (MAE). The data analyzed here are derived from panel data covering China's bilateral PAE and MAE with 120 trading partners from 1993 to 2013. The estimates of fixed effect models show that wage increase and the appreciation of the yuan reduced the proportion of assembly exports in China's bilateral exports. Specifically, for a 10% increase in Chinese manufacturing wages, the share of PAE in China's bilateral exports is expected to fall 4.59% and that of MAE to decrease 0.9%; and a 10% nominal appreciation of the yuan against the US dollar is expected to lower the shares of PAE and MAE 8.56% and 7.26% respectively. The empirical results imply that rising wage and cumulative appreciation of the yuan have eroded China's comparative advantage in the assembly of products for international markets, resulting in substantial contraction of assembly exports. The analysis provides a supply-side explanation for the fall of China's export growth.Xu, J., et al. (2016). "The impact of exchange rate movements on multi-product firms' export performance: Evidence from China." China Economic Review 39: 46-62.This paper investigates the effects of RMB exchange rate movements on Chinese multi-product firms' export behavior using China's firm-level micro data and highly disaggregated customs data over 2000–2007. We find that real appreciation of RMB exerts negative effects on Chinese multi-product firms' export prices and export quantities, and the effects are significantly different across firms with different productivity as well as the product ladder within multi-product firms. In addition, we document that real appreciation of RMB narrows multi-product firms' export scope and induces firms to skew their export sales towards the best performing products. Finally, the paper explores the effects of RMB exchange rate movements on firms' export duration, and shows that real appreciation of RMB lengthens the export duration of core products but shortens the export duration of non-core products.Yu, C. and Z. Luo (2018). "What are China's real gains within global value chains? Measuring domestic value added in China's exports of manufactures." China Economic Review 47: 263-273.This paper aims to investigate China's gains of participating in global value chains (GVCs) in terms of GDP in exports (DVA - domestic value added) and the factors affecting China's gains. The paper decomposes the gross exports of China so as to get the components that make up total GDP in the exports of the country, namely the value-added exports and DVA that are returned from abroad. Then the two components are measured to obtain the scale of GDP in China's exports both on country and sector level. The results show that, firstly, both value-added exports and the GDP in China's exports are less than the traditional gross trade statistics, indicating that there is a gap of real trade gains under GVCs. Secondly, comparing whether the proportion of DVA in total exports, the proportion of DVA in exports of manufactures or the proportion of RDV in total DVA, the gaps between China and the developed countries such as the United States, Germany and Japan do exist. Especially, considering the RDV of China, the proportion is significantly lower than that of major developed countries such as the United States and Germany, indicating that China lags far behind developed countries in the capabilities of supplying high value-added intermediate goods. Lastly, the empirical results suggest that DVA in China's exports has progressively increased in response to the productivity enhancement; research and development (R&D) inputs and capital formation, and the synergies between R&D and vertical specialization affect China's DVA growth in exports positively.Yu, L., et al. (2020). "Does the belt and road initiative expand China's export potential to countries along the belt and road?" China Economic Review: 101419.In this paper, we use difference-in-differences estimation to examine the effect of the Belt and Road Initiative on China's export potential to the countries along the Belt and Road routes. The results show that China's export potential to the Belt and Road countries rose significantly after the initiative began, especially for exports of products in capital intensive industries. We also distinguish between different regions and find a much stronger effect for countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and West Asia.Zhao, Y., et al. (2018). "Tracing value added in gross exports of China: Comparison with the USA, Japan, Korea, and India based on generalized LMDI." China Economic Review 49: 24-44.This study first traces value added in gross exports of China during 2000–2014 to four components, namely domestic value added absorbed abroad (DVA), domestic value added return home (RDV), foreign value added (FVA), and pure double-counted terms (PDC), then compares these four components in China's exports with those in exports of the USA, Japan, Korea, and India. Second, this paper proposes a generalized logarithmic mean Divisia index (GLMDI) method and combines additive and multiplicative decomposition to decompose DVA gaps between China and the other four countries into value added coefficient effect, input-output structure effect, domestic scale effect and foreign scale effect. The aggregate value added coefficient effect is then attributed to sectoral level. Results show that DVA always occupied the largest share in the gross exports of China, which ranged from 74.60–82.84% during 2000–2014. Before 2011, DVA share of China's exports was generally the second smallest among five countries; since 2011, DVA share of China's exports increased, and China had the largest DVA share in 2014 (81.39%). Sectors having a large FVA share in China's exports usually had a large DVA share, such as “Mining” (MIN), “Computers, Electronic and Optical” (CEO), and “Basic Metals” (BAS). Additive and multiplicative decomposition analyses indicate that value added coefficients had a negative and increased effect on DVA gaps between China and the other four countries. Attribution analysis revealed that CEO sector had the largest negative value added coefficient effect in comparison between China and the USA, Japan, and Korea and its effect increased in comparison between China and the other four countries. Policy implications derived are finally discussed.关于中国国际经济贸易领域议题，以下为发表在“Journal of Comparative economics”等其他期刊上的文章。Anwar, S. and S. Sun (2018). "Foreign direct investment and export quality upgrading in China's manufacturing sector." International Review of Economics & Finance 54: 289-298.Using a Melitz-type theoretical model of firm heterogeneity, we show that (i) the presence of foreign firms within an industry affects the industry export quality and (ii) the industry export quality is directly related to the industry export price. As the industry export price can be approximated by the industry export unit value, our work provides a rigorous theoretical justification for several empirical studies that use export unit value as a proxy for export quality. We then convert our theoretical model-based structural relationships into a system of equations. Using industry level panel data from China's manufacturing sector, and measuring the industry export quality by the industry export unit value, we find that an increase in foreign presence in China's manufacturing sector contributes to a significant increase in China's export quality. We also distinguish between foreign presence in China originating from the Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan (HMT) and non-HMT regions. We find that foreign presence in China's manufacturing sector that originates from the HMT region leads to a much larger increase in China's export quality. The main empirical result is found to be robust with respect to alternative measures of foreign presence and aggregate demand.Chen, Z., et al. (2020). "Local financial development and constraints on domestic private-firm exports: Evidence from city commercial banks in China." Journal of Comparative Economics 48(1): 56-75.We show that the development of city commercial banks (CCBs) across China has alleviated the constraints from China’s domestic financial-market inefficiency on the export activity of domestic private firms. Considering the export behavior of 260 cities between 1997 and 2012, we confirm the well-established under-performance of domestic private firms in financially more vulnerable sectors compared to foreign affiliates in China. We show that a greater number of CCB branches raises domestic private-firm exports disproportionately more in financially-dependent sectors, which is in line with improved financing conditions for these companies. This improvement in export performance appears to result from both an increase in the number of destination countries and a decline in prices. CCB development is moreover associated with a reduction in the systematic disadvantage of domestic private firms relative to foreign-owned firms in export markets resulting from their greater financial exclusion. We, however, also find that private-firm export performance has deteriorated relative to that of state-owned firms, casting doubt on the ability of CCBs to end the systematic bias of lending in favor of the state sector.Du, H., et al. (2020). "Re-examining the embodied air pollutants in Chinese exports." Journal of Environmental Management 253: 109709.China is the world's largest exporter and may release lots of air pollutants to produce exported commodities due to taking coal as its main source of energy. Processing exports play a significant role in Chinese exports, yet previous studies of embodied air pollutants in Chinese exports failed to distinguish processing exports from normal exports. This paper investigates the effect of trade heterogeneity on the estimation of embodied emissions by re-examining the embodied air pollutants in Chinese exports based on an extended non-competitive input-output table that distinguishes processing from normal exports. The results show that processing exports generate 22.81% of the value added embodied in gross exports and 16.48% of the emissions embodied in gross exports. The embodied air pollutants in Chinese exports would be overestimated by 12%–22% without accounting for trade heterogeneity. Unequal distributions of export-related air pollutants and value added exist among different sectors. In particular, Manufacturing of Electronics and Communication Equipment sector induces 39.56% of embodied emissions in processing exports, and 41.78% of which are generated by Production and Supply of Electric Power and Steam Hot Water sector. China's restrictions on processing exports should focus not only on the direct emissions generated by each sector but also on the emissions embodied in domestic supply chains.Fan, H., et al. (2019). "Trade liberalization and Firms’ export performance in China: Theory and evidence." Journal of Comparative Economics 47(3): 640-668.The focus of the literature surrounding trade liberalization has recently shifted from trade liberalization in imported final goods to studying the effects of trade liberalization in imported intermediate inputs. This emphasis fits very well the trade liberalization experience of China following its accession to the WTO in 2001. In this paper, we build a multi-sector heterogenous-firm model with trade in both intermediate goods and final goods, and we ask: How do final-goods producers respond to trade liberalization in imported inputs? Do they respond differently across sectors? How do firms respond differently to trade liberalization in imported-outputs instead? We separate the total effect of trade liberalization into those caused by inter-sectoral resource allocation (IRA) and by within-sector selection of firms according to productivity (which we call Melitz selection effect). It is the IRA effect that gives rise to differential impacts of trade liberalization in different sectors. These impacts include changes in the probability of entry into the export market, the fraction of firms that export and the share of export revenue. To test our hypotheses, we carry out both quantitative analysis and empirical analysis by using Chinese firm-level data. The results are consistent with our theoretical predictions.Fernandes, A. M., et al. (2019). "The internet and Chinese exports in the pre-ali baba era." Journal of Development Economics 138: 57-76.The dramatic expansion of internet access in China allows us to analyze the impact of the internet on firm performance. Combining firm-level production data with province-level information on internet penetration, we examine how the internet rollout across Chinese provinces in 1999–2007 influenced firm export behavior. We show that the internet rollout boosted firm manufacturing exports, even before the rise of major e-commerce platforms. We take a closer look at why, addressing three questions: what aspects of firm performance were affected, what types of firm communication were facilitated, and what dimensions of the new communication medium were relevant? We find that the internet did not just enhance trade but improved overall firm performance; results are consistent with improvements in communication with both buyers and input suppliers; benefits arose not just from better communication but from establishing a visible virtual presence, and were enhanced by, but not contingent on, access to broadband.Han, B., et al. (2018). "HOUSING PRICE AND FUNDAMENTALS IN A TRANSITION ECONOMY: THE CASE OF THE BEIJING MARKET." International Economic Review 59(3): 1653-1677.Abstract This article develops a dynamic rational expectations general equilibrium framework that links house value to fundamental economic variables such as income growth, demographics, migration, and land supply. Our framework handles nonstationary dynamics as well as structural changes in fundamentals that are commonplace in transition economies. Applying the framework to Beijing, we find that the equilibrium house price and rent under reasonable parameterizations of the model are substantially lower than the data. We explore potential explanations for the discrepancies between the model and the data.Hayakawa, K., et al. (2020). "Liberalization for services FDI and export quality: Evidence from China." Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 55: 101060.By employing firm-level export data in China, this paper empirically examines the effect of liberalization of services foreign direct investment (FDI) on exporting firms’ quality upgrading. To evaluate its relative effectiveness, we also examine other kinds of trade policies, including tariffs in export destination countries and input and output tariffs in China. With China's accession to the World Trade Organization in December 2001, these trade policies changed substantially during our sample period of 2000–06. Empirical results showed that easing the restrictiveness of services FDI resulted in raising export product quality, mainly for foreign-owned enterprises. More than any other trade policy, we found that reduced input tariffs contributed to raising export product quality.He, L.-Y., et al. (2020). "The impact of de-globalization on China’s economic transformation: evidence from manufacturing export." Journal of Policy Modeling.The economic transformation is an important policy practice of economic development in China. In the context of “deglobalization”, it is critically important to better understand the impacts of increasing trade costs on China’s economic transformation from the perspective of firms’ exports. In this study, we measure the trade costs of specific manufacturing sectors and provinces. We employ Heckman (1979) two-stage method and the data from China’s manufacturing firms to investigate the impacts of trade costs on heterogeneous firms’ exports. Based on these results, we further explore the impacts of trade costs on China’s economic transformation and discuss policy advisories. Our results indicate that the increase in trade costs have adverse impacts on China’s economic transformation. Specifically, increasing trade costs hinder firms’ export behaviors and export scales. However, these impacts are heterogeneous on different types of firms, which refers to the ownership reforms, manufacturing sector upgrades and coordinated regional development. In particular, increasing trade costs do not affect coordinated regional development in China, but they are not conducive to ownership reforms and manufacturing sector upgrades. Altogether, our findings provide the first evidence on the impacts of trade costs on China’s economic transformation from the perspective of firms’ exports, and also shed light on policy implications for promoting firms’ exports and economic transformation in the “deglobalization” period.Ho, C.-Y. (2015). "SWITCHING COST AND DEPOSIT DEMAND IN CHINA." International Economic Review 56(3): 723-749.This article develops and estimates a dynamic model of consumer demand for deposits in which banks provide differentiated products and product characteristics that evolve over time. The switching cost is 0.8% of the deposit's value, which leads the static model to bias the demand estimates. The dynamic model shows that the price elasticity over a long time horizon is larger than the same elasticity over a short time horizon. Counterfactual experiments with a dynamic monopoly show that reducing the switching cost has a comparable competitive effect on bank pricing as a result of reducing the dominant position of the monopoly.Hu, Z., et al. (2017). "Product churning, reallocation, and Chinese export growth." Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 143: 147-164.This paper quantifies the separate contribution of idiosyncratic productivity and demand growth on aggregate Chinese exports. We develop firm, product, market and year-specific measures of productivity and demand. We use these measures to document a number of novel findings that distinguish the growth of Chinese exports. First, we document that changes in demand explain nearly 78–89% of aggregate export growth, while only 11–22% of export growth is determined by productivity growth. Second, our results highlight two mechanisms which contribute significantly to aggregate export growth: the rapid reallocation of market shares towards products with growing demand, and high rates of product exit among low demand products. Investigating the mechanisms underlying these results we find that new exporters suffer demand shocks which are 66% smaller than those observed for incumbent producers in the same product market. By comparison, we find that there is only an 8% difference on average between the productivity of new and incumbent exporters. Repeating our exercise with revenue productivity reveals much smaller differences. This is largely attributed to differential movements in prices and marginal costs.İmrohoroğlu, A. and K. Zhao (2019). "HOUSEHOLD SAVING, FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS, AND THE CURRENT ACCOUNT IN CHINA." International Economic Review n/a(n/a).Abstract In this article, we present a model that can account for the changes in the current account balance in China since the 2000s. Our results suggest that inadequate insurance through government programs for the elderly and the decline in family insurance due to the one-child policy led to large increases in the household saving rate. These increases coupled with the financial frictions preventing the household saving from being invested in domestic firms resulted in large current account surpluses until 2008. Relaxation of financial constraints, on the other hand, was responsible for the decline in the current account surplus after 2008.Jin, S., et al. (2005). "ECONOMIES OF SCALE AND SCOPE AND THE ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY OF CHINA'S AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH SYSTEM*." International Economic Review 46(3): 1033-1057.This article investigates economies of scale and scope and other potential sources of improvements in the economic efficiency of China's crop breeding, an industry at the heart of the nation's food economy. Using data covering 46 wheat- and maize-breeding institutes from 1981 to 2000, we estimate cost functions for the production of new varieties at China's wheat- and maize-breeding institutes. Our results indicate strong economies of scale, along with small to moderate economies of scope related to the joint production of new wheat and maize varieties. Cost efficiency increases significantly with increases in the breeders' educational status and with increases in access to genetic materials from outside the institute.Ko, C. Y., et al. (2018). "UNIFIED CHINA AND DIVIDED EUROPE." International Economic Review 59(1): 285-327.Abstract This article studies the causes and consequences of political centralization and fragmentation in China and Europe. We argue that a severe and unidirectional threat of external invasion fostered centralization in China, whereas Europe faced a wider variety of smaller external threats and remained fragmented. Political centralization in China led to lower taxation and hence faster population growth during peacetime compared to Europe. But it also meant that China was more vulnerable to occasional negative population shocks. Our results are consistent with historical evidence of warfare, capital city location, tax levels, and population growth in both China and Europe.Lai, H., et al. (2020). "Intellectual property enforcement, exports and productivity of heterogeneous firms in developing countries: Evidence from China." European Economic Review 123: 103373.We develop and test a model of heterogeneous firms to study how provincial-level enforcement of intellectual property rights affects Chinese firms’ decisions regarding exit from the market and entry into exporting, technology adoption through capital imports, and process innovation. In this setting the exit and export cutoff productivities differ from those in the standard environment, leading to a different sorting mechanism. The model also predicts that the highest-productivity firms will implement new technologies and innovate more after stronger enforcement. Empirical tests based on a comprehensive dataset of Chinese firms from 2000 to 2006 support the predictions regarding both the extensive and intensive margins of exports, technology adoption, and innovation.Li, S. and X. Weng (2017). "RANDOM AUTHORITY." International Economic Review 58(1): 211-235.This article rationalizes matrix management in a multiproject organization in which decisions must be adapted to local conditions but also coordinated with each other. Project managers are privately informed about local conditions and communicate strategically via cheap talk. Matrix management is modeled as a randomization over deterministic authority allocations. We show that random authority is strictly optimal when the conflict between adaptation and coordination is very severe or the coordination need is very small. Moreover, the optimal degree of delegation changes nonmonotonically in the coordination need when the incentives of the project managers are sufficiently aligned.Liu, H., et al. (2020). "Can China reduce the carbon emissions of its manufacturing exports by moving up the global value chain?" Research in International Business and Finance 51: 101101.This study analyses whether embedding in the global value chain has an impact on the carbon emissions of China’s exports. We develop a carbon decomposition model and use panel data for 14 manufacturing industries in China from 1995 to 2009 to empirically analyse the impact of China’s exports on carbon emissions. Our results show that the GVC effect on China’s carbon emissions embodied in manufacturing exports outweighs the scale, composition and technique effects.Mitchener, K. J. and S. E. Yan (2014). "GLOBALIZATION, TRADE, AND WAGES: WHAT DOES HISTORY TELL US ABOUT CHINA?" International Economic Review 55(1): 131-168.Newly assembled data show that, as China opened up to global trade during the early 20th century, its exports became more unskilled-intensive and its imports more skill-intensive. Difference-in-differences estimates show that World War I dramatically increased Chinese exports, raising the relative demand for the unskilled workers producing them. When the war ended, trade costs declined and China's terms of trade increased, further stimulating exports. A simulation of a dynamic general equilibrium model demonstrates that the effects of the war on China's terms of trade produces a decline in the skill premium similar to what China experienced in the 1920s.Newberry, P. and X. Zhou (2019). "HETEROGENEOUS EFFECTS OF ONLINE REPUTATION FOR LOCAL AND NATIONAL RETAILERS." International Economic Review 60(4): 1565-1587.Abstract We study the heterogeneous effect of online reputation for sellers that differ in their national presence and examine how this heterogeneity affects the distribution of sales on a large Chinese platform. We estimate a demand model that incorporates a learning process and allow for the process to vary across sellers who are differentiated by their national presence. The estimates suggest that the impact of reputation is larger for local sellers. Using these estimates, we find that removing the reputation system would result in large shift of demand from local sellers to national sellers.Rodrigue, J. and Y. Tan (2019). "PRICE, PRODUCT QUALITY, AND EXPORTER DYNAMICS: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA." International Economic Review 60(4): 1911-1955.Abstract This article develops a model of heterogeneous firms that endogenously choose prices and product quality to build demand in export markets. New exporters optimally charge relatively low prices and produce low-quality goods upon entry. Product quality, prices, and sales increase as demand grows. We structurally estimate model parameters using Chinese customs data. The estimated incentive to build future demand reduces average export prices by 0.7% and increases export sales by 4% upon entry. Endogenous demand accumulation causes estimated export prices, product quality, and sales to grow by 2.2%, 12%, and 79%, respectively, over the following five years.Sharma, P., et al. (2020). "Impact of political connections on Chinese export firms' performance – Lessons for other emerging markets." Journal of Business Research 106: 24-34.This paper explores the differences in the impact of political connections on the performance of Chinese exporter and non-exporter firms and among three types of exporter firms; private-owned (POE), local state-owned (LSOE) and central state-owned (CSOE). Our sample has 7326 firm-year observations from 1945 firms listed on Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges during 2006–2010 period. Using export sales, ratio of export to total sales and return on assets as the performance indicators, we find significant positive effects of political connections on Chinese firms' decisions to enter export markets and on their subsequent export performance. We also find significant differences in these effects based on the type of firm ownership (i.e., POE, LSOE and CSOE). Besides extending research linking political connections and export performance, our study would also help researchers, managers and policy-makers in the emerging markets understand the pros and cons of using political connections to drive export performance.Shen, L. and P. Silva (2018). "Value-added exports and U.S. local labor markets: Does China really matter?" European Economic Review 101: 479-504.In this paper, our main focus is the direct contribution of the Chinese economy to changes in U.S. labor market outcomes. Our results indicate that the effects of continuously rising value-added exports from China to the U.S. depend on the position of the Chinese exporting industry in the global value chain. In particular, we find that an increase in U.S. exposure to value-added exports from China in industries with high degree of downstreamness leads to negative effects on the share of manufacturing employment, while the same is not present in the case of industries with low degree of downstreamness. Moreover, our results also suggest that the effects of an increase in U.S. exposure to value-added exports from China on average wages and on unemployment levels depends on the position of the Chinese industry in the global value chain.Weiss, Y., et al. (2018). "CROSS-BORDER MARRIAGE COSTS AND MARRIAGE BEHAVIOR: THEORY AND EVIDENCE." International Economic Review 59(2): 757-784.Abstract This article analyzes cross-border marriages between mainland China and Hong Kong (HK). We examine the effects of a reduction in cross-border marriage costs following an increase in marriage-migration quotas and the handover of HK to China. We find that cross-border marriages mainly involve men from the low tail of the HK attribute distribution. We also find that HK women's position in the marriage market and within households deteriorated following the reduction in cross-border marriage costs and that their disadvantaged position exerts an incentive effect on their labor market behavior. These outcomes are consistent with our matching model.Xiao, J., et al. (2017). "WELFARE ANALYSIS OF THE VEHICLE QUOTA SYSTEM IN CHINA." International Economic Review 58(2): 617-650.This article presents a welfare analysis of the vehicle quota system of Shanghai, China. The empirical findings suggest that the quota system leads to both welfare loss as a result of reduction in vehicle transactions and welfare gain because of less externality of auto consumption. The net effect depends on the shadow price of the marginal externality, the assumption of vehicle lifetime, and market conditions such as consumers' intrinsic preference for vehicles. Compared to a progressive tax system, the quota system is less effective in vehicle control but more efficient in improving social welfare.Yan, B., et al. (2019). "China’s emissions embodied in exports: How regional and trade heterogeneity matter." Energy Economics: 104479.Trade facilitates the shifts of emissions from one place to another. Although studies have shown that regionally disaggregated model and model that distinguishes processing exports at the national level are necessary to estimate the embodied emissions in China's exports, no study evaluates this issue by simultaneously taking both regional and trade heterogeneity into account. To fill this gap, we re-estimate the CO2 emissions embodied in China’s exports at both regional and industrial level, by using the newly-developed inter-regional input-output (IRIOP) model that distinguishes processing trade from other trade at the regional level. Results show that compared to the IRIOP model, the traditional multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model has overestimated the environmental loss from exports by 14%–25% in 2002 and 7%–20% in 2012 for different regions. The largest bias is found in regions and industries with the highest processing export shares. Therefore, the IRIOP model gives more accurate accounting on the regional environmental loss due to national exports and thus is important for establishing effective emission mitigation policies.Yang, C.-L., et al. (2017). "EFFICIENT LARGE-SIZE COORDINATION VIA VOLUNTARY GROUP FORMATION: AN EXPERIMENT." International Economic Review 58(2): 651-668.Efficient coordination in large groups is a fundamental issue in economic organizations. We consider the weak-link game with the feature of economies of scale that is necessary for voluntary group growth, in a minimal setup with exit and merger options. We show that large groups with efficient outcomes prevail in most communities. Seed groups form that seem to set a norm of both maximal effort level and mutual trust that there will be no panic when seeing noisy dips. Initial doubters are eventually converted into norm abiders. A restart further speeds up the process of coordination success.Zhang, D. (2019). "Can export tax rebate alleviate financial constraint to increase firm productivity? Evidence from China." International Review of Economics & Finance 64: 529-540.This paper assesses the impact of export tax rebate on firms’ Total Factor Productivity using a large panel of manufacturing firms for 2007–2015 in China. It finds that export tax rebate expands export volume and works as an alternative financial tunnel to increase firms’ TFP. It further shows export tax rebate can smooth financial constraints through increasing cash flow, substituting working capital and financing fixed assets investment and R&D investment. Moreover, the impact of export tax rebate on TFP increases across state, private and foreign ownerships. Heavy pollution intensive and less capital-intensive industries are strongly affected by the export tax rebate policy. Finally, these results are robust to the choice of GMM, Heckman Two-stage and PSM estimators which can better solve potential endogeneity problems and selection bias issues in this paper.Zhang, Z., et al. (2019). "Economic gains and environmental costs from China's exports: Regional inequality and trade heterogeneity." Ecological Economics 164: 106340.As the world's factory, processing exports comprise a remarkable share of China's total exports. By fully taking the special characteristics of processing trade into account, this paper comprehensively investigates the unbalanced distribution of trade-related economic benefits and environmental costs across different regions in the years of 2007 and 2012. We find a serious regional mismatch between trade-related pollutions and economic gains, with the coastal region gaining more economically but emitting less, whereas the inland regions gain less but emit more. We also conclude that trade-related value added and air pollutions would be overestimated significantly if trade heterogeneity was not correctly captured. Processing exports are cleaner but result in greater regional inequality in terms of trade-related economic gains and environmental costs, although the regional inequality induced by processing exports presented a decreasing trend over the period 2007–2012. The electricity generation sector plays a dominant role in this outcome. Coastal regions should transfer more trade-related economic gains to help sustainable development in inland regions.Zhou, M., et al. (2019). "Identifying the effects of land use change on sediment export: Integrating sediment source and sediment delivery in the Qiantang River Basin, China." Science of The Total Environment 686: 38-49.Dramatic land use change caused by the rapid economic development in China has impacted the sediment export dynamics in the large basin. However, how land use change affects sediment export is still poorly understood. This study provided an integrated analysis of the relationships in a “three-level” chain linked as follows: “land use change → changes in sediment source and sediment delivery → sediment export change” for a better understanding. It used the InVEST sediment delivery ratio (SDR) model to analyze the Qiantang River Basin (4.27 ∗ 104 km2), China. Sediment export change was examined from the two perspectives: the effects of land use change on sediment source and on sediment delivery. Correlations between changes in individual land use types and changes in sediment source and sediment delivery were identified. The results indicated that sediment export reduced from 1.69 t ha−1 yr−1 in 1990 to 1.22 t ha−1 yr−1 in 2015 because of the decreased sediment source and a weakened sediment delivery function. In the study area, the conversions of cropland to urban land (urbanization) and bare land to forestland (afforestation) were found to make the major contributions to reductions in soil loss and SDR, respectively. Furthermore, soil loss change resulted in the decreases in total value of sediment export and SDR change caused a large-scale spatial change in sediment export. Our hotspot analysis revealed that the Wuxi River watershed should be targeted for priority conservation to optimize land use/cover for reducing sediment export. This study demonstrates the benefits of taking a comprehensive approach to analyze the processes associated with sediment export change. These allow to improve sediment management and promote aquatic ecosystem health by providing specific future land use recommendations, aimed at source treatment and delivery interception.Zhu, X., et al. (2019). "International market power analysis of China’s tungsten export market -- from the perspective of tungsten export policies." Resources Policy 61: 643-652.Tungsten is a widely used metal related to national strategic security. As the world’s largest tungsten producer and exporter, China has restricted tungsten exports over the past decade. Has China acquired the corresponding international market power in the export market after these export restrictions? Based on an expansion of the Song-Marchant-Reed (SMR) model, this paper selects 17 of China’s major tungsten importers and estimates the international market power of Chinese tungsten exports over the period from 1992 to 2016. In addition, the effectiveness of China’s tungsten export control policies is examined. The empirical results show that China has stronger market power relative to the major tungsten importers. Moreover, from the encouragement phase to the restraint phase of China’s export policy, the difference in the export market power between China and the importers has substantially increased from 0.027 to 0.161. This shows that due to the implementation of export restrictions, China has gained more export market power, indicating that its tungsten export control policies are very effective. Based on the empirical results, this paper analyses the reasons for China’s rising market power and the effectiveness of its export policies and proposes corresponding policy recommendations.Zhu, Y., et al. (2018). "Estimating the impact of China's export policy on tin prices: a mode decomposition counterfactual analysis method." Resources Policy 59: 250-264.China is an important country for the storage, import, production and consumption of tin ore and is an exporter of refined tin. Since 2002, China has engaged in the export quota management of both tin and tin products. In January 2017, the Chinese government officially abolished quotas and tariffs for the export of refined tin. In this paper, we propose mode decomposition counterfactual analysis method, which is composed of the mode decomposition extreme event analysis and a counterfactual analysis, to estimate the resulting policy effects. We also use this method to estimate the effects of China's export policy on tin price. In empirical research, we compare three kinds of mode decomposition methods, and finally select empirical mode decomposition. Finally, we chose EMD results. The main conclusions are as follows. First, China's market has comparative advantage on tin trade, the change of China's export policy will not affect the SHFE tin price. Second, cancellation of China's export policy results in an increase in the supply of international tin market, so LME tin prices has a downward trend in the long run. Third, change of China's policies exacerbated the investors' concerns about the uncertainty of tin market, resulting in the short-term fluctuation of LME tin prices. Fourth, market feedback is lagging behind policy, and price is an effective indicator of feedback policy. Finally, we discuss directions for future research. 对国际经济贸易领领域感兴趣的学者可以到社群交流访问。之前，咱们圈子引荐过一些数据库，如下：1.这40个微观数据库够你博士毕业了；2.中国工业企业数据库匹配160大步骤的完整程序和相应数据；3.中国省/地级市夜间灯光数据；4.1997-2014中国市场化指数权威版本；5.1998-2016年中国地级市年均PM2.5；6.计量经济圈经济社会等数据库合集；7.中国方言,官员, 行政审批和省长数据库开放；8.2005-2015中国分省分行业CO2数据；9.国际贸易研究中的数据演进与当代问题；10.经济学研究常用中国微观数据手册。
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下面这些短链接文章属于合集，可以收藏起来阅读，不然以后都找不到了。