【目录】《国际经济评论》2019年第2期
从中国故事到中国智慧
蔡昉 张宇燕 张晓晶 姚枝仲 魏后凯 张晓山 吴国宝
黄群慧 李平 潘家华 高文书 王延中 魏众 刘元春
习近平总书记在庆祝改革开放40周年大会上指出：“我们党作出实行改革开放的历史性决策，是基于对党和国家前途命运的深刻把握，是基于对社会主义革命和建设实践的深刻总结，是基于对时代潮流的深刻洞察，是基于对人民群众期盼和需要的深刻体悟。”“40年来，我们解放思想、实事求是，大胆地试、勇敢地改，干出了一片新天地。” 根据习近平新时代中国特色社会主义经济思想，中国社会科学出版社2018年11月出版了《中国智慧》一书。本刊特将2018年12月12日题为“回顾改革开放发展经验：从中国故事到中国智慧”出版座谈会上部分专家的发言摘要编辑，与读者一起分享习近平总书记讲话精神的学习体会。刊发内容已经发言人审定。
From China Story to China Wisdom
Cai Fang, Zhang Yuyan, Zhang Xiaojing, Yao Zhizhong, Wei Houkai,Zhang Xiaoshan, Wu Guobao, Huang Qunhui, Li Ping, Pan Jiahua, Gao Wenshu, Wang Yanzhong, Wei Zhong and Liu Yuanchun 9
As Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, said at the meeting celebrating the 40th anniversary of the country's reform and opening-up drive, the historic decision of reform and opening-up the Party made is based on the thorough understanding of the future and destiny of the Party and the nation and the in-depth summarization of the socialist revolution and construction practices; and it is also based on the profound apprehension of tides of the times and the profound comprehension of people's wishes and needs. He also said that in the past 40 years, the Party and the nation have broken new grounds through emancipating the mind, seeking truth from the facts, and trying new things in a bold and courageous manner. In line with the Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, the China Social Sciences Press has published the book titled China Wisdom. And our journal has selected and edited remarks made by some experts at a symposium themed From China Story to China Wisdom: Retrospect on Development Experiences from the Reform and Opening-up, which was held to celebrate the publication of the book, to share with our readers their understanding of the speech by Xi.
世界贸易组织改革：全球方案与中国立场 廖凡
世界贸易组织（WTO）正面临前所未有的生存危机，改革已经成为共识。但关于WTO改革的基本原则、具体内容和优先顺序，各方立场和意见则不尽相同，阵营划分也难以一概而论。综合现有的主要改革方案，大体而言，在谈判机制方面主张增加谈判机制灵活性，打破“协商一致”造成的多边谈判僵局；在实体规则方面主张制定贸易新规，强化贸易公平，消除投资障碍；在纪律约束方面主张更好发挥WTO的审查和监督功能，加强对成员方遵守透明度和通报义务的约束；在争端解决方面主张尽快修改相关协定，打破上诉机构法官遴选僵局，确保WTO正常运转。对于中国而言，关键在于“以我为主”，明确自身基本立场与核心关切，并在现有《立场文件》基础上，出台具体改革方案，更加积极主动地参与乃至推动WTO改革进程。
关键词：世界贸易组织改革 WTO 协商一致 竞争中立 透明度 争端解决
WTO Reform: Global Agenda and China’s Position
Liao Fan 32
The World Trade Organization (WTO) is facing an unprecedented survival crisis and it has become a consensus that the organization needs to be reformed. However, the involved parties are divided over the basic principles, contents and priorities of the reform. Proposals that have been submitted to the WTO so far generally support increasing the flexibility of the
organization’s negotiation mechanism, thus breaking the multilateral negotiation deadlocks caused by the consensus requirement, and support making new trade rules, enhancing fair trade and eliminating investment barriers; they also support improving the review and surveillance functions of the WTO to ensure better compliance of the transparency and notification obligations by its members; in terms of dispute resolution, they support timely revision of relevant protocols and breaking the “deadlock” of designation of appellate body members to ensure the normal functioning of the organization. For China, the key is to clearly understand its basic position and core concerns and present more specific reform proposals on the basis of the current Position Paper, so as to more actively participate in and push forward the reform process.
上诉机构的条约解释判理或先例之辨——兼论WTO争端解决机制改革
张乃根
作为多边贸易体系的核心机构，WTO上诉机构正面临严重的生存危机。美国以上诉机构赋予其条约解释等判理以判例法的先例效力等为由，主张这是WTO改革的体制性问题之一。有针对性地分析美国的主张，客观评估上诉机构的条约解释实践，辨析有关条约解释的判理或先例及其相关问题，是合理改革WTO争端解决机制的必要条件。
关键词：上诉机构 条约解释 判理 先例 WTO改革
Jurisprudence or Precedent? Treaty Interpretation of Appellate Body and Reform of WTO Dispute Settlement Mechanism
Zhang Naigen 44
The WTO Appellate Body as the core institution of multilateral trade system faces unprecedented challenges. The United States accuses the Appellate Body of authorizing its treaty interpretation as precedent and argues that it is an institutional issue to reform the WTO. The US stance should be analyzed and rational assessment of the practice of the Appellate Body in treaty interpretation should be conducted to distinguish jurisprudence from precedent and analyze related issues before properly reforming the WTO dispute settlement mechanism.
全球金融危机十周年：教训与挑战——中国社会科学论坛 学术研讨会观点综述
熊婉婷 崔晓敏
距离2008年全球金融危机已经过去十年。尽管危机的起点是美国次级贷款违约，但其在不同国家的传播渠道和后续影响却不尽相同。导致危机发生的风险来源是什么？决定危机危害大小的因素有哪些？不同政策应对方式造成了哪些影响？各国面临哪些独特挑战？如何防范下一次危机的发生？针对这些问题，2018年10月15日中国社会科学论坛（2018·国际问题）“全球金融危机十周年：教训与挑战”在北京国际饭店召开。会议从全球、中国、欧洲、日本和美国五个视角回顾和总结了各国在金融危机中的经验与教训，并在此基础上展望和探讨了识别潜在风险和防范未来经济危机的挑战与对策。
关键词：金融危机 杠杆率 债务 全球治理
Ten Years after the Global Financial Crisis: Lessons and Challenges — Summary of the CASS Forum Organized by the Institute of World Economics and Politics
Xiong Wanting and Cui Xiaomin 57
It has been ten years since the 2008 global financial crisis. While the crisis began with subprime debt defaults in the United States, it affects other economies through various channels and bears different consequences on those affected countries. What are the causes for the financial crisis? What determines the size of its impact? What are the consequences of different political responses? What specific challenges do those countries each face? How to prevent the next crisis? To address those questions, the 2018 CASS Forum on International Issues was held on October 15, at which scholars reviewed lessons from the global financial crisis from multiple perspectives and discussed challenges for preventing future crises.
改革开放以来中美关系“压舱石”的演变进程、内在动力与未来走向
张一飞
尽管学界与媒体早已广泛使用“压舱石”一词来描述中美经济关系，但是对于国际关系中“压舱石”的概念界定、演变动力以及未来发展趋势尚未进行深入探讨。本文将“压舱石”定义为“能够在危机中维持两国或多国关系整体稳定的，某一问题领域中的国家间均衡关系”，并通过回顾改革开放以来中美关系“压舱石”演变的历史进程，发现经济关系作为中美关系的长期性“压舱石”正在国际结构作用下面临消解；同时，恐怖主义、金融危机等非传统安全的“阶段性”压舱石也早已在问题领域的陈旧化和常态化的过程中不复存在。本文还提出了六种中美关系再次出现稳定“压舱石”的情形，并对未来中美关系做出展望。
关键词：中美关系 “压舱石” 经济关系 危机
Evolution, Motivation and Future Trend of “Ballast” in the Sino-US Relations since China’s Reform and Opening-up
Zhang Yifei 75
Although the word “ballast” has long been widely used in academic circles and media reports to describe Sino-US economic relations, the definition of “ballast” in international relations, the motivation for its evolution, and its future development trend are yet to be discussed in depth. This article defines “ballast” as “balanced international relationship in certain areas that can maintain the overall stability of bilateral or multinational relations in a crisis”. By reviewing the historical evolution of “ballast” in the Sino-US relations since China’s reform and opening-up, it is found that the economic relations, as a long-term “ballast” of Sino-US relations, are facing the risk of disintegration under the influence of changing international structure. Meanwhile, the short-term non-traditional security “ballasts”, such as terrorism and financial crisis, have also disappeared as they have become obsolete or regular problems. The article puts forward six situations in which the stable “ballast” would reappear in Sino-US relations and forecasts the future prospects of Sino-US relations.
中国对外经贸战略调整符合自身战略利益
余智
为落实中美两国领导与相关部门关于经贸问题的历次会谈精神，化解中美贸易摩擦，中国最近一年多来在对外经贸战略上做出了一些调整。这些调整，不仅是为了展现谈判诚意、回应美方诉求，更是中国自身发展的需要，符合中国自身的战略利益。本文以中国自身战略利益为出发点，从对外贸易战略、产业发展战略、知识产权战略三个方面，论述中方对外经贸战略调整的必要性，以及应该采取的进一步调整措施。
关键词：对外贸易战略调整 产业发展战略调整 知识产权战略调整
China’s Adjustments of International Economic and Trade Strategies Fit Its Own Strategic Interests
Yu Zhi 98
China adjusted some of its international economic and trade strategies during the past two years. This not only shows its willingness to take care of the concerns of the United States and to solve the China-US trade disputes, but also fits China's own development requirements and strategic interests. Based on the consideration of China's own strategic interests, this article analyzes the necessity of its adjustments of international economic and trade strategies, including its foreign trade strategy, industrial development strategy, and intellectual property rights strategy. The article also proposes further adjustment measures that China should adopt in the future.
去杠杆背景下工业企业的结构分化
徐奇渊
2018年，工业企业利润增速数据面临两大悬疑：为何官方数据平稳，而事实上却有大量企业面临经营困难，数据是否可信？如果用结构分化来解释这种矛盾，那么工业企业的结构分化有多严重？本文结合去杠杆的背景分析指出，在2018年，由于融资成本的急剧分化，工业企业经营状况也出现了显著分化。这体现为国有、民营企业的分化，还体现在不同规模、不同细分行业的分化。这可能影响短期宏观经济稳定，还可能影响到新兴产业的发展空间，进而影响到中长期增长动能。政策需跳出短期宏观调控框架，回到、并且审视供给侧结构性改革的视角，通过构建有效的市场机制，保护和激发企业家精神，培育微观主体的活力，从而增强中国经济系统的韧性。
关键词：工业企业 规模以上 国有企业 民营企业 结构分化
Deleveraging and Structural Differentiation of Industrial Enterprises
Xu Qiyuan 112
With the cyclical weakening of the Chinese economy, many scholars have questioned the data of industrial enterprises profits: Constantly we read news about enterprises running into trouble in 2018, while the corporate profits data is relatively stable. Is it incompatible? If the answer is structural differentiation among industrial enterprises, then how seriously is such differentiation? Taking into consideration China’s deleveraging initiative, this article points out the remarkable divergence between SOEs and private enterprises, which is mainly due to financing cost variance. The structural divergence can also be reflected by industrial enterprises in different scales and sub-industries. Consequently, this may deteriorate investment demand and affect industrial upgrading. We should seriously reconsider the policy framework beyond the coordination between monetary and fiscal policy and go back to the essential of supply-side reforms.
乌克兰危机与俄罗斯地缘经济的演变 曲文轶 苏兆荣
因乌克兰危机与西方交恶后，俄罗斯地缘经济“向东转”成为热议的话题。本文利用俄罗斯对外贸易和吸引外资的数据详细考察了俄地缘经济的演变进程，结果发现，截至目前俄罗斯对于欧洲的实质依赖并未发生根本改变，特别是在能源和原材料的出口、吸引外资，以及对于部分关键的高科技产品的进口依赖上。与此同时，与西方地缘政治关系恶化，事实上推动俄罗斯加快了地缘经济“向东转”的步伐，尤其在进口贸易方面，亚太取代欧洲成为第一大进口来源地。中国不出所料大幅提升了在俄罗斯外贸中的份额，但在俄对外融资方面发挥的作用还十分有限。亚太地区特别是中国在资金和技术上尚无法完全替代欧洲的作用，这可能也是部分俄罗斯学者质疑“向东转”战略的原因之一。不过从更长时期考察，由世界经济重心东移亚太这一根本性因素所决定，俄地缘经济联系“向东转”的进程事实上是持续、稳定推进的。假以时日，俄地缘经济联系从根本上转向亚太将会不可逆转。
关键词：乌克兰危机 地缘经济 俄罗斯 向东转
The Ukraine Crisis and the Evolution of Russia’s Geo-economy
Qu Wenyi and Su Zhaorong 123
Due to the deterioration of relations with the West after the Ukraine crisis, Russia has shifted its focus of geo-economy to the East, a move that has been put into the spotlight. This article uses Russia's foreign trade and FDI data to investigate in detail the evolution of the country's geopolitical economy and it is found that the actual dependence of Russia on Europe so far has not changed significantly, especially in terms of energy and raw material exports, foreign investment, as well as imports of some key high-tech products. At the same time, however, the deterioration of its geopolitical relations with the West has actually accelerated the pace of the country's geopolitical economy shifting to the East, especially in terms of import trade — the Asia-Pacific region has replaced Europe as Russia’s largest source of imports. China's share in Russia's foreign trade has predictably risen sharply, but its role in Russia’s external financing has been quite limited. The Asia-Pacific region, especially China, cannot completely replace the role of Europe in terms of capital and technology movement, which may be one of the reasons why some Russian scholars have questioned the country’s "Turning to the East" strategy. But in a longer period of time, because of the shift of the global economic power to the Asia-Pacific region being an inevitable trend, the process of the eastward shift of Russia's geoeconomic ties will be sustained and stable. In time, the fundamental shift of Russia's geoeconomic ties to the Asia-Pacific will be irreversible.
英国金融稳定治理框架：权衡、改革与启示 郑联盛
金融稳定治理框架的目标是以治理安排为支撑来维系金融体系稳定性，包括政策目标、赋权主体、政策工具、协调机制以及危机处置等要素，呈现出单一机构体系、双支柱框架、新加坡模式和责任共担模式等政策实践。危机后，英国对其金融稳定政策及治理框架进行了全面反思，以应对金融稳定的内在挑战和完善金融稳定的治理安排，并据此进行重大的制度改革。英国是全球危机10年来金融稳定体系建设和改革最为深远的经济体之一，构建了以英格兰银行为核心主体，货币政策、宏观审慎和微观监管三支柱相融合，三个专业委员会相对独立决策，突出宏观审慎政策主导功能的金融稳定治理体系。这为正在进行货币政策与宏观审慎政策双支柱政策调控体系建设以及金融监管体系改革的中国提供重要的政策参考。
关键词：金融稳定 治理框架 英国 三支柱
UK’s Financial Stability Governance Framework: Trade-off, Reform, and Implications
Zheng Liansheng
The governance framework for financial stability, including policy objectives, mandates, tools, coordination, and crisis management, is to realize stability of financial systems. It presents four governance models, namely, single authority, two-pillar framework, Singapore model, and responsibility-sharing system. In the wake of the global financial crisis, the UK government comprehensively reassessed its financial stability policy and governance framework to cope with the inherent challenge of financial stability and improve governance arrangements for financial stability; and based on that, it has carried out major reforms of its financial stability policy and related governance framework. In the past 10 years, the UK has become one of the few economies that have conducted profound reforms in financial stability governance regime, which features the Bank of England as the core player, the integration of the three pillars of monetary policy, macroprudential management and micro-regulation, and three professional committees to make independent decisions to highlight the leading functions of macroprudential management policies. The experiences of the UK serve as insightful policy references for China, which is carrying out its financial regulatory reform.
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