《JAE》| Liu et al：牲畜保险需求的决定因素：来自中国牧民的实验证据

摘要：我们提供了有关中国牧区牧民保险偏好的第一手证据。我们基于假设和结果选择实验来估计牧民对替代保险配置的偏好，旨在最大程度地减少假设偏差。我们的结果表明，随着保险费减少或支出增加，对牲畜保险的需求增加，牧民总体上偏好保险计划。假设偏差仅通过成本属性影响支付意愿估计，而非成本属性的边际替代率在很大程度上保持不变。对于某些保险属性，假设处理的支付意愿估计值几乎翻倍。

关键词：中国; 选择实验; 假设偏差; 牲畜保险

Abstract: We provide the first evidence about insurance preferences among herders in pastoral regions in China. We estimate herders’ preferences for alternative insurance configurations based on a hypothetical and a consequential choice experiment, aiming to minimise hypothetical bias. Our results show that herders prefer the insurance plan in general with demand for livestock insurance increasing when insurance premiums decrease or payouts increase. The hypothetical bias only influences the willingness‐to‐pay estimates through the cost attribute, while the marginal rates of substitution of non‐cost attributes remain largely unchanged. The hypothetical treatment nearly doubles the magnitudes of willingness‐to‐pay estimates for some insurance attributes.

Key words: China; choice experiments; hypothetical bias; livestock insurance

《Journal of agricultural economics》，最新影响因子为2.529，主要发表管理科学、农业经济与政策方向文章。

论文网址:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1477-9552.12402

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