精译求精系列之六：寻找十倍股的不二法门，投入资本回报率（下）

编者按：中国投资者对巴菲特以及其经典的投资心得耳熟能详。但实际上，这个世界仍然有大量可以与巴菲特比肩的投资大师精心撰写的投资心得，但多以英文或者其他语言撰写，国内几乎没有介绍。格隆汇特意组织力量开始制作《精译求精系列》，力求将这些含金量十足的大师心得，呈现在广大会员眼前，体现他们的价值，为大家的投资，保驾护航。

本文的作者是美国知名对冲基金经理John Huber，最新发布的投资心得。文章主要讨论了“再投资性护城河和传统护城河的区别”。

Low Cost / Scale:

低成本/规模效应

that Mr. Walton could sell each item at a lower marginthan competitors and still operate profitably due to the large volume ofshoppers. The more people that shopped at a given Wal-Mart, or the moreWal-Marts that were built, only furthered this cost advantage and widened themoat. The lower prices enticed more shoppers, and the cycle continues toreinforce itself. So by the time there were 1,000 Wal-Marts in existence, themoat was significantly wider than when there were 51. Other businesses such asCostco, GEICO, and Amazon have followed a similar playbook, creating a“flywheel” that accelerates as the business grows[2].

让我们回顾早期沃尔玛的案例。与传统超市相比，沃尔顿先生能够以低于竞争对手的利润率出售每一件商品，其原因在于沃尔玛有大量客源。在沃尔玛买东西的客人越多，或者新的沃尔玛超市开得越来越多，沃尔玛的成本优势就会更强，护城河也会更宽。所以当沃尔玛开了1000家的时候，它的护城河比只有51家的时候宽很多。好市多，盖可保险，和亚马逊这类企业的经营模式类似于此：创造一个“飞轮”，随着企业不断扩大，“飞轮”会不断加速。

Example:Sketch of the Amazon Flywheel

例子：亚马逊飞轮草图

Two-SidedNetwork:

双面网络效应：

Creatinga two-sided network such as an auction or marketplace business requires bothbuyers and sellers, and each group is only going to show up if they believe theother side will also be present. Once the network is established however, it actuallybecomes stronger as more participants from either side engage. This is becausethe network is stronger for the “n + 1,000^th” participantcompared to the “n” participant directly as a function of adding 1,000participants to the market[3].  Another way of describing this: asmore buyers show up it will attract more sellers, and that in turn will attractmore buyers. Once this positive cycle is in place, it becomes nearly impossibleto convince either buyer or seller to leave and join a new platform. Businessessuch as have built up strong two-sidednetworks over time.

创造一个双面网络效应需要买家和卖家都参与其中，如拍卖会或者市场买卖，并且只有相信对方也会出现时，一方才会参与进来。一旦网络建成，它就会随着双方参与者数量的不断增加而加强。当n+1000个参与者加入时，这个网络就会比只有n个参与者时要强，因为多了1000个人参与到市场中。这个模式还可以这样解析：当更多的买家进入时，更多的卖家会被吸引过来，反过来卖家增多又会引来更多的买家。一旦这种积极的循环网络形成，要让卖家、买家离开网络中的市场，然后转向新的交易平台几乎是不可能的。Copart, eBay, 和Airbnb这类公司就建立了这样的双面网络。

AndreesenHorowitz’s example of Airbnb’s two-sided network:

Airbnb 的双面网络

Judgingthe “Runway” to Reinvest:

判断通往“再投资”的跑道长度：

很多投资者只单纯看重增长率，他们认为这是评估增长速率较高的公司的决定因素，即使这一增长并不能得到证实。但对于“再投资护城河”而言，关键点不在于对下一年的增长速率的预测，而在于相信在进行“再投资”之前有一条很长的“跑道”，并且企业产生高回报的竞争优势会随之不断变强。与其把关注点放在下一季度、或者下一年份，投资者更应该往后退一步，看看企业在10年或20年之后能不能成长为今天的5倍或10倍。在我看来， 几乎99%的企业都很难让人持有那样的信念。不过别担心，耐心点，然后专心寻找剩下的1%。

Admittedlythis is the most difficult step of the process, with many variables anduncertainties. Each situation will be different, but below are items I look foras positive indicators of a long runway and also red flags that the runway isconcluding:

我承认这是最难的一步，因为其中有很大的变数和不确定性，具体问题还要具体分析。我在下面列出了一些暗示有较长跑道的积极信号和提示跑道终止的危险信号。

PositiveIndicators:

积极信号

If a two-sided network is consistently increasing keymetrics like users or gross transactions but is still a small percentage of theoverall market:

如果一个双面网络效应的关键性指标还在持续增长，比如说用户或者成交量，但是跟整个市场相比，目前的规模还是比较小的。

•  Focus on companieswith a high “flow through” margin on an incremental user or transaction, whichwill help the company expand margins as the network grows.

• 集中于对增量客户或增量交易有高“流入”边际的公司，因为这类公司的利润会随着网络扩张而增加。

If acompany has a structural advantage that leads to a lower cost model thancompetitors:

如果公司有结构优势、和低于其竞争对手的成本模型:

This could be a differentiated business modelsuch as selling direct rather than through agents. Or it could be an advantagedeveloped over time such as technology that results in greater automation. Thestructural advantage has to be difficult for larger incumbents to duplicate.

这可能是一种全新的商业模式，比如直接进行销售而不是通过经销商。或者是逐渐培养出竞争优势，比如能够带来更大自动化的科学技术。这种结构优势必须是难以被其它大型企业复制的。

If amulti-unit retailer currently has less than 100 locations but foresees an endmarket of over 1,000:

如果当前一家多元产品经销商的店铺少于100家，但是预计未来会超过1000家：

•  Focus on companieswith a consistent, profitable, and replicable model. The company shouldprimarily be “stamping out” the same prototype over and over while producing consistent unit economics.

• 聚焦于有一致性、可盈利、可复制的公司。这类公司首先要逐步铲除同类型公司，然后形成一致的单位经营模式。

Red Flags:

危险信号：

If acompany that claims to have a long runway begins shifting into new or differentmarkets:

如果一家声称跑道较长的公司开始向其它新型市场转型：

• If the future is sobright, then why deviate from the plan? The management may already know therunway is limited and is making a pivot.

• 如果未来的确一片光明，那么为什么公司还要偏离原计划呢？公司管理层可能已经看到了跑道的尽头，正在扭转方向。

Ifmanagement’s definition of the total addressable market (TAM) is suspect:

如果管理层对于可获取市场规模的定义难以让人信服：

• Some management teamslike to throw out a massive TAM number in a slide deck for investors to focuson. Check the underlying source of that number, if their definition is overlybroad they may be trying to mislead investors.

• 有些管理层喜欢在幻灯片里放一个巨大的市场规模预测数字，以此来吸引投资者的注意力。试着查找这个数字的根本依据在哪儿，如果公司的定义过于广泛，那么他们可能试图误导投资者。

If therecent vintages of growth investments are producing lower returns:

如果近几年的增量投资所得收益越来越低：

• If the most recentstores opened are producing lower sales and margins, but cost just as much, therunway is showing some cracks. Many multi-unit businesses begin to show lowerunit returns once outside of core markets.

• 如果最新开的商店产生的销售额和利润越来越低，但是成本并没有降低，那么这条跑道可能出现了裂痕。很多多元化企业一旦走出核心市场范围，其单位收益就开始降低。

Why ValueInvestors Often “Miss” the Reinvestment Moats:

为什么价值投资者经常“错失”再投资护城河：

Ibelieve identifying these businesses with Reinvestment Moats is possible withsome work, but many value investors struggle with identifying a “reasonable”price. My theory is that these Reinvestment Moats tend to “hide in plain sight”because most investors underappreciate the impact of compounding.

我相信花点功夫还是可以分辨出哪些公司有“再投资护城河”的，但是很多价值投资者都苦苦纠结于寻找“合理价格”。我的观点是这些再投资护城河往往藏在“显而易见”的地方，因为很多投资者都低估了负利率的影响。

Whenassessing a quality business, value investors will often point to a P/E ratioover 20x or the EV/EBITDA multiple of 10x+ to show that Ben Graham would surelyshake his head in disgust over such a purchase. However let’s consider two investmentsand determine which will yield better results over a ten year horizon. The first business, Reinvestment Corp.,has the ability to deploy allretained earnings at a high rate because of the strong Reinvestment Moatit possesses. Of course investors acknowledge this likelihood, meaning theentry price is fairly high at 20x earnings, leading most bargain hunters topass. On the other hand, Undervalued Corp. has all of Graham and Doddsville ina buzz because it’s a steady business with a nice dividend selling for abargain of only 10x earnings! Assume that over time both companies will bevalued in-line with the market at 15x:

当评估一个优质企业时，价值投资者经常会指着20倍的市盈率，或者10倍以上的企业价值倍数说本·格雷厄姆肯定会对这种买入决定嗤之以鼻。无论如何，让我们看看在以下两个投资中哪个可以在未来十年带来更好的收益。第一个是再投资公司，因为再投资护城和河的存在，它可以用高利率对所得利益进行再投资。投资者当然知道这个可能性，就20倍市盈率而言这个买入价很高，很多爱讨价还价的人直接就不考虑买入了。另一家是被低估公司，它对Graham 和Doddsville都十分有吸引力，原因是公司十分稳定、有客观的分红，并且就10倍的市盈率而言股价很低。假设对两家公司都按照15倍市盈率进行估值：

*Assumes all earnings not reinvested are distributed as dividends

假设所有未被再投资的盈利都作为分红

**Pre-tax IRR, factoring in tax rates will only further the advantageof Reinvestment Corp.  

税前内部收益率。把税率因素考虑进来只会让再投资公司的优势更为明显。            

Thisexample illustrates a concept Charlie Munger outlined in “The Art ofStockpicking”:

“If the business earns 6% on capital over 40 years and you hold it forthat 40 years, you’re not going to make much different than a 6% return—even ifyou originally buy it at a huge discount. Conversely, if a business earns 18%on capital over 20 or 30 years, even if you pay an expensive looking price,you’ll end up with a fine result.”

“假设公司在40年内的资本收益率为6%，你在这40年内都持有公司股票。虽然一开始你以高折扣买入股票，但除了 6%的回报你可能无法获益更多。相反的，如果一家公司在20或者30年期限内的资本收益率为18%，即便买入价格偏高，你的最终盈利都会十分可观。

Tocreate an even more extreme example, if you find a business that you believe iscapable of earning strong returns over a decade, look at how much you can “overpay”and still earn a return equal to a typical business:

有一个更为极端的例子。如果你相信一家企业可以在未来10年内产生高回报，问问自己可以超额付出多少但所得回报仍跟典型企业一样。

*Assumes all earnings not reinvested are distributed as dividends

假设所有未被再投资的盈利都作为分红      

**Pre-tax IRR   

税前内部收益率   

Time iscertainly the friend of a great business. But does this mean that onlybusinesses with a Reinvestment Moat should be considered for a long-terminvestment?

对伟大的投资而言，时间绝对是它们的朋友。但是这是否就意味着只有具备再投资护城河的公司才值得长期投资呢？

EarningHigh Returns Investing in Legacy Moats:

获得高回报，投资传统护城河：

A solidLegacy Moat paired with the right management team and strategy can be a wealthcreator for shareholders over many years. In order to accomplish this, theplaybook has to change into one more focused on capital allocation,specifically a systematic focus on acquisitions and managing the capitalstructure. In a sense the managementteam’s capital allocation prowess must become the Reinvestment Moat.

一个拥有正确管理层和管理决策的传统护城河公司对股东而言绝对是常年的摇钱树。为了实现这个愿景，我们的重心要转移到资本分配上来，具体而言就是要把系统性的重心转移到并购和管理资本结构上。从某种意义上说,传统护城河管理团队的资本配置能力必须跟再投资护城河的一样。

Whilethe research on the negative consequences of M&A for corporations isextensive, I think there are a select group of management teams that canactually reinvest the company’s capital better than individual shareholderscould do on their own. They tend to operate solely within their circle ofcompetence, which is typically the sector where the underlying businessresides. With deep industry knowledge, access to deal flow, and the ability toachieve operational synergies, thesecompanies can operate like a private equity fund with permanent capital (andwithout the fee structure). Notable examples include TransDigmGroup, Danaher Corporation, and Constellation Software.

针对并购对公司的负面影响的研究有很多，我认为对公司资本进行再投资时，筛选出来的管理层会比独立股东做出更好的抉择。管理层在其能力圈内进行经营活动，而这里往往是企业重要业务的部门所在地。通过深刻的行业见解，进入交易流程的权限，以及实现经营协同效应的能力，这些企业可以像私募基金那样运作永久资本（并且没有收费结构）。一些较为明显的例子有TransDigm 集团, Danaher公司, 和Constellation 软件公司。

Typicallythe management team consists of at least one “Operator” and a sole “Allocator”.The Operator is tightly managing the existing businesses to maintain theircompetitive positions. The Allocator functions more as an investor than a CEO,seeking out opportunities to deploy capital at high rates while also optimizingthe capital structure. For theAllocator the capital structure is another means of creating shareholder value,and it is common to see special dividends, strategic use of leverage, and lumpyshare buybacks that only occur when the stock is undervalued.William Thorndike’s book “The Outsiders” does a fantastic job of detailingthese unique management teams with a talent for capital allocation.

I’vefound that the best way to find these companies is by reading annualshareholder letters and picking up on certain qualitative patterns. First, a thoughtful and informative annual letter is key because it shows the managers view the shareholders moreas business partners and co-owners rather than a pesky group they have to dealwith each quarter. While I prefer to do further research, typicallythe letter is so insightful to a potential owner that they could make aninformed investment decision simply by reading it each year. The letters typicallycontain terms like “intrinsic value”, “return on capital employed”, and “freecash flow per share” rather than simply discussing sales growth. Thesebusinesses tend to view frugality as a source of pride, with the home officesetting the tone that each dollar is valuable because it ultimately belongs tothe shareholder. If you happen to come across one of these companies, and youthink the management team hasa number of years remaining with plenty of attractive M&A targets, my advice is to buy the shares and let them take care ofthe compounding for you.

通常来说，公司管理层都包括至少一位“操作员”和唯一的“分配者”。操作员会紧密跟进现有业务来保证公司竞争优势。分配者更像是一名投资者，而非公司CEO，他会寻找机会以高利率部署资本并优化资本结构。对于分配者而言，资本结构是另一个为股东创造价值的方式，特殊股息是很常见的，只有在股票被低估时，公司才会战略性地使用杠杆，或者大量地回购股票。William Thorndike有一本书名叫《局外人》，该书详细分析了有资本分配能力的独特管理团队。我发现寻找这类公司的最有效方法就是阅读股东年度信，然后从中发现一定模式。首先，一封含有大量信息的年度信很关键，因为它表明管理层把股东看作商业伙伴或合伙人，而不是在每个季度末要解决的麻烦。通常情况下一封信息全面的股东信足以让潜在投资者做出投资决定，但就个人而言，我喜欢做进一步的研究。除了销售增长指标外，股东信里面经常有“内在价值”、“资本回报率”、和“每股自由现金流”这些项目。这类企业往往认为节俭是值得自豪的事情，公司大本营的口号就是“珍惜每一块钱，因为那是股东的钱”。如果你碰巧遇到了这样的企业，并且你觉得管理层的任期会持续多年，而且他们手头还有大量诱人的并购目标，那么我的建议是买他们的股票，让他们为你赚钱。

Summary:

总结：

Most ofthe companies that are identified as having a “moat” tend to be Legacy Moatsthat produce consistent, protected earnings and strong returns on prior invested capital.These are perfectly good businesses and can produce nice returns for investorsin a comfortable fashion.

许多被认为有“护城河”的企业拥有的都是“传统护城河”，它们有持续的、受保护的收益，并且公司有投资资本上的回报率很高。这类公司绝对是很好的投资机会，它们会以合理的方式为投资者来较好的收益

Howeverif you aiming to compound capital at high rates, I believe you should spendtime focusing on businesses possessing a Reinvestment Moat with a very longrunway. These businesses exhibit strong economics today, but moreimportantly possess a longrunway of opportunities to deploy capital at high incremental rates.If these are hard to come by, the next best alternative is a business with thecombination of a Legacy Moat and an exceptionally strong capital allocator. Itwill take some work and a lot of discipline to filter down to the truecompounding machines, however a portfolio of these exceptional businessesacquired sensibly is likely to produce years of strong returns.

但是如果你的目标是以高利率进行资本复合，我觉得你应该花些时间在有“再投资护城河”和长跑道的企业身上。这类企业在现阶段展有较强的经济实力，但更重要的是在企业的长跑道上，他们有很多具有高增率的再投资机会。如果这类企业很难遇到，另一个更好的选择就是寻找同时拥有传统护城河和极其有能力的资产分配者的企业。寻找真正的复利工具需要花些精力，但是好的投资组合很显然会常年带来强劲收益。

相关阅读：

利益声明：本文内容和意见仅代表作者个人观点，作者未持有该公司股票，作者提供的信息和分析仅供投资者参考,据此入市，风险自担！

格隆汇声明：格隆汇作为免费、开放、共享的海外投资研究交流平台，并未持有任何关联公司股票。转载本文，请务必注明来源“港股那点事”及作者。

加入格隆汇

● 投稿给格隆汇。投稿邮箱：[e-mail]；

● 添加微服妹妹微信号：guruclub_011，参加格隆汇三大线下活动：汇说、汇路演、汇调研；

● 直接添加格隆个人微信公众号：guru-lama

● 广告投放：0755-86332133-823

● 商务合作：0755-86332133-802