【专栏】重新发现中国应对气候变化的贡献（中英双语）

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编者按：在《环球时报英文版》12月22日刊发的第63篇“变局”专栏中，人大重阳执行院长、中国金融学会绿色金融专业委员会秘书长王文表示，长期看，碳中和将推动能源革命的战略目标，实现“美丽中国”的建设，那些挑刺中国的声音再次成为中国前进的鞭策力。下文为专栏的中英文版。

本文英文版在 Global Times 的版面截图

在2020年底中央经济工作会议的公报上，“做好碳达峰、碳中和工作” 明确被部署为2021年经济工作的八大工作任务之一。说到做到，中国应对气候变化的决心是坚决的。 

2020年9月，习近平主席在联合国大会首次承诺中国力争在2060年实现碳中和之后，国内各省市立刻开始了如火如荼的低碳经济部署。2021年工作包括，制定2030碳排放达峰行动方案，加快建设全国用能权、碳排放权交易市场，完善能源消费双控制度，提升生态系统碳汇能力等。

“气候变化”被哈佛大学Martin Weitzman教授称为“从地狱来的问题”（the problem from hell）。从1990年代开始，人类对气候变化不断讨论、研究与政策实践，终于在2015年巴黎气候缔约方大会（COP）上达成了历史性的集体共识，即在本世纪末温度提升控制在2度以内，并努力实现1.5度。

这意味着全世界要迅速、全方位地实现能源大转型，包括但不局限于2030年前全球煤炭消费需至少2/3以上，2050年前停止使用煤炭发电，同时可再生能源供电比例提高到85%。这还意味已探明的采储量中，40%以上的天然气、50%的石油与80%以上的煤炭都将永久地留在地壳中。

这样的要求对中国作为全球最大的发展中国家而言，是相当困难的。曾有一批中国学者认为，气候变化是欧洲人对中国设的骗局，目的是阻止中国经济的增长。中国煤电发电量长期超过60%、电量需求在过去15年增加了300%的现实，支持着中国部分保守主义者的看法。

但中国决策者和社会主流应对气候变化的决心很坚决。2009年哥本哈根气候会议确定的中国2020年的目标是，非化石能源消费为15%，碳强度比2005年下降40-45%。数据显示，中国在2019年的数据分别是15.7%、48.1%。超额、提前完成！ 

正如陆克文先生近期积极评价中国的气候领导力的文章中谈道，国内形势和需求一直是中国环境积极稳步向前的核心驱动因素。当下的中国应对气候变化的努力，没有像过去那样坚持发展中国家与发达国家之间的责任区分，也没有以任何方式将中国的行动与其他国家的行动挂钩。这是中国气候变化政策内生性的重大改变。

当前，习主席的“绿水青山就是金山银山”理念，已成为中国公众的环保与气候变化共识。相比于特朗普政府领导下的美国退出巴黎气候变化协定，中国人的努力更值得肯定。

不过，对中国人而言，感到最难过的是，西方主流舆论并没有对中国的全球贡献给予充分的认可，除了气候变化，还包括减贫、抗疫、金融稳定、物美价廉的中国制造，等等。更糟糕的是，西方总有一些人以挑剔、偏见甚至是仇视的态度评价中国人的付出。

幸运的是，中国人似乎没有在舆论战中纠缠，而是将气候变化的外部压力转化为国内的动力。2030年碳达峰、2060年碳中和在过去几个月已在中国被缩写成“30-60”计划，成为指导各个智库、公司、地方政府甚至券商分析报告的新关注焦点。

根据中国首家中外合资投资银行“中金公司”研究报告，碳中和意味着“更经济+更清洁+更安全的能源结构”，中国未来光伏年需求有望增长25倍，新能源车产值在顶峰期也将较当前提升23倍，绿色能源总投资在2060年将累计达到约9万亿美元，绿色经济年产值将达到1.8万亿美元。基础材料会推出更严格的标准，农业规模化养殖及高效种植将加速，交通运输的成本将降低、效率将提升。

长期看，碳中和将推动能源革命的战略目标，实现“美丽中国”的建设。那些挑刺中国的声音再次成为中国前进的鞭策力。

可以看出，中国新发展格局已正式启动。对于新时代的中国人而言，要做的如同中央经济工作会议所说，须有“补课充电的紧迫感”，“自觉赶上时代潮流”。

以下为英文版

China’s green contributions underestimated

By Wang Wen

During China's annual Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of 2020, reducing carbon emission was listed as one of China's eight key tasks to focus on in 2021. China has a firm determination to tackle climate change.

In September, Chinese President Xi Jinping promised to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060 at the general debate of the 75th session of the UN General Assembly, which was held by video link. After that, Chinese provinces and cities immediately began to deploy a low-carbon economy in full swing. China's task in 2021 includes formulating a plan for reducing carbon emissions by 2030. It also entails accelerating the construction of trading markets for energy and carbon emissions, improving the dual control system of energy consumption and enhancing the carbon sink capacity for ecosystems.

Martin Weitzman, professor of economics at Harvard University, once called climate change a "problem from hell." Since the 1990s, human beings have been discussing, researching and implementing policies on climate change. Finally, countries reached a historic collective consensus at the 2015 UN Climate Change Conference - limiting the rise in average global temperatures to 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the 21st century.

This means that the world must quickly and comprehensively realize energy transition, including stop using coal for power by 2050 and increasing the proportion of renewable energy power supply to 85 percent. This also means that proven reserves of more than 40 percent of natural gas, 50 percent of oil, and more than 80 percent of coal will permanently remain in the earth's crust.

As the world's largest developing country, such a requirement will be quite difficult for China. A group of Chinese scholars once argued that climate change was a hoax perpetrated by the Europeans to stop China's economic growth. The idea of some Chinese conservatives is supported by the fact that China's coal power generation has long exceeded 60 percent. 

However, China's policymakers and mainstream society are determined to address challenges from climate change. The Copenhagen Summit in 2009 set China's 2020 target of non-fossil energy consumption to 15 percent. It also entailed a 40 to 45 percent reduction of carbon intensity compared to 2005. The statistics for 2019 are 15.3 percent and 48.1 percent, respectively. China exceeded and fulfilled targets ahead of schedule.

Domestic conditions and demand have been the core drivers of China's positive and steady environmental progress. China's current efforts to tackle climate change do not insist on the same division of responsibilities between developing and developed countries as in the past. Nor does it link China's actions with those of other countries by any means. This has been a major endogenous change in China's climate change policy.

At present, Chinese President Xi Jinping's conviction that lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets is now a consensus of the Chinese public in regards to environmental protection and climate change issues. Compared with the Trump administration's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, Chinese people deserve more credit for their efforts.

But some Chinese people feel sad that mainstream public opinion in the West doesn't show enough respect to China's global contributions. These positive works include responses to climate change, efforts to alleviate poverty, and fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. Besides, the West doesn't recognize squarely China's financial stability and "Made in China" products are attractive in price and high in quality. Worse, the West has always been mean, prejudiced, and even hostile to Chinese people's contributions. 

Fortunately, Chinese people didn't engage in wars of words. They have turned external pressure into internal dynamics. China pledges to achieve carbon dioxide emission reductions before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060. This has been abbreviated as the "30-60 plan" within the country. The plan has become a new focus of analysis reports by think tanks, enterprises, local governments and even security traders. 

According to the China International Capital Corporation Limited, China's first joint-venture investment bank, carbon neutrality means "more economic, cleaner, and safer energy constructs." China's annual need of photovoltaic energy might increase by 70 times in the future. Its annual output value of new-energy vehicles may increase by 23 times to 1.2 trillion yuan ($180 billion). The total investment in green energy could reach an accumulated volume of 55 trillion yuan in 2060, and the annual output value of green economy will be around 10.3 trillion yuan by 2060. Accordingly, China will have stricter criteria for basic materials, accelerate large-scale farming, increase planting efficiency, and reduce the cost of transportation while pumping up its efficiency. 

From the long-term perspective, carbon neutrality will push forward the strategic goal of energy reform to realize the construction of a "Beautiful China." Of course, nit-picking voices of these efforts will again become stimulus to help China advance. 

China's new development pattern has been established. Chinese people in the new era should catch up with the trends and go forward boldly. 

（The author is professor and executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China.）

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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资董事长裘国根先生向母校捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。

作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。

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