前沿｜Comparative Political Studies（比较政治研究）2019.11

本期政治学人国际化部推介《比较政治研究》（Comparative Political Studies）2019年第11期部分文章编译，以飨读者。欢迎关注与评论！注意：

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01

期刊简介

Comparative Political Studies（比较政治研究）是SAGE出版社旗下的学术期刊，创刊于1968年，出版周期为每年10期。

涉及的领域包括比较政治学理论框架研究、全球比较政治学研究、国内比较政治学研究等。

02

论文索引

1. The Mass Political Economy of Capital Controls

   资本管制的大众政治经济学

2. Social Mobility and Democratic Attitudes: Evidence From Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa

   社会流动和对待民主的态度：来自拉丁美洲和撒哈拉以南非洲的证据

3. Civil Society Engagement and Policy Representation in Europe

   欧洲民间社会的参与和政策代表性

4. It’s Not the Left: Ideology and Protest Participation in Old and New Democracies

   并非左派：新旧民主国家的意识形态和抗议参与

5. Estimating Causal Relationships Between Women’s Representation in Government and Corruption

   评估妇女在政府中的代表性与腐败之间的因果关系

03

原文&译文（标题及摘要）

01 资本管制的大众政治经济学

题目：

The Mass Political Economy of Capital Controls

作者：

David A. Steinberg（大卫·斯坦伯格），约翰霍普金斯大学副教授

Stephen C. Nelson（史蒂芬·C·尼尔森），美国西北大学副教授

摘要：

本文探讨了大众舆论对国际金融市场规定——即“资本管制”——的看法。传统观点认为，大多数选民并不关注资本管制，但目前为止，没有研究曾直接审视这一观点。我们认为，在某些条件下，特别是在经济不稳定的国家针对资本外流重新制定规则的情况下，资本管制可能会成为一个突出的公开问题。在阿根廷开展的两项研究的原始数据支持了这一观点。我们证明了大多数公民都对资本管制有所了解，许多人认为这是一个重要问题，个人偏好反映了他们的经济利益，对资本管制的态度影响了总统选举中的投票选择。这些结果以及其他四个案例的证据表明，在某些情况下，表面上复杂的政策问题，如国际金融监管，可能会在选举中发挥突出作用。

This article examines mass public opinion toward international financial-market regulations, known as “capital controls.” Conventional wisdom maintains that most voters do not pay attention to or care about capital controls, but no previous studies have directly evaluated this claim. We argue that capital controls are likely to become a publicly salient issue under some conditions—specifically, when economically unstable countries reimpose regulations on capital outflows. Original data from two surveys fielded in Argentina supports this argument. We show that most citizens are knowledgeable about capital controls, many consider it an important issue, individuals’ preferences reflect their economic self-interest, and attitudes toward capital controls influenced vote choice in a presidential election. These results, along with illustrative evidence from four other cases, indicate that ostensibly complex policy issues such as international financial regulation can become electorally salient under some conditions.

02 社会流动和对待民主的态度：来自拉丁美洲和撒哈拉以南非洲的证据

题目：

Social Mobility and Democratic Attitudes: Evidence From Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa

作者：

Christian Houle（克里斯蒂安·胡尔），密西根州立大学副教授

Michael K. Miller（迈克尔·K·米勒），乔治华盛顿大学副教授

摘要：

代际社会流动如何影响对民主的支持？虽然大量文献研究了个人收入和不平等如何影响政权更替和对民主的态度，但很少研究聚焦于社会流动与民主态度的关系。我们使用来自Afrobarometer和Latinobarometer两个民意调查机构提供的个人层面的数据（该数据涵盖了33个民主国家和非民主国家），以首次分析代际流动的个人经历如何影响对民主的支持。我们发现，流动性可以预测个人对民主的态度，即使我们控制了教育和当前的经济状况两个变量。我们还证明，该影响并不通过重新分配的偏好来实现。我们提出了两种替代机制。首先，生活在民主国家的人会将流动性归功于（或责怪于）政权。其次，向上流动改变了一系列价值观，例如个人自治和信任，使人们更加支持民主。我们得出的结果应视为对包括美国在内某些民主国家的警告，这些国家的社会流动性正在稳步下降。

How does intergenerational social mobility affect support for democracy? Although a large literature examines how personal income and inequality influence regime change and democratic attitudes, there has been little work on social mobility. We employ individual level data from the Afrobarometer and Latinobarometer, covering 33 democracies and nondemocracies, to provide the first analysis of how personal experiences of intergenerational mobility influence support for democracy. We find that mobility predicts democratic attitudes, even controlling for education and current economic situation. We also show that the effect does not run through preferences for redistribution. We instead propose two alternative mechanisms. First, individuals living in democracies credit (or blame) the regime when they experience mobility. Second, upward mobility transforms a range of values, such as personal autonomy and trust, that render individuals more supportive of democracy. Our results present a warning for democracies facing steadily declining social mobility, including the United States.

03 欧洲民间社会的参与和政策代表性

题目：

Civil Society Engagement and Policy Representation in Europe

作者：

Anne Rasmussen（ 安妮·拉斯马森），哥本哈根大学教授

Stefanie Reher（史蒂芬妮·里尔），斯特拉斯克莱德大学讲师

摘要：

自从托克维尔将美国的民主质量与其充满活力的公民文化联系起来，不少研究探讨了社会资本与政府治理水平之间的关系。然而，很少有人深入研究社会资本和民主的各个组成部分之间的机制。本研究的重点是社会资本的其中一个组成部分与公民社会参与之间的联系，以及公众舆论与政策之间的联系。本文认为，公民参与到相关政策利益组织可能会促进公众意见与政策之间的呼应关系。这些组织拥有收集信息并向政策制定者和公众传播信息的能力。对来自30个欧洲国家的20个具体政策问题的分析证实了这些预测：利益团体高度参与的议题往往在结果上表现出了更强的公众舆论和政策之间的关系。调查结果强调了民间社会组织在参与利益倡导之外可以在政策代表性中发挥的作用。

Since Tocqueville linked the quality of democracy in America to its vibrant civic culture, studies have explored the relationship between social capital and the quality of governance. Yet, few have examined the mechanisms between individual components of social capital and democracy in depth. This study focuses on the link between one component of social capital, civil society engagement, and the linkage between public opinion and policy. It argues that engagement in associations with an interest in the policy issue may stimulate correspondence between public opinion and policy through their ability to collect and disseminate information to policy makers and the public. The analysis of 20 specific policy issues from 30 European countries confirms these expectations: Issues that experience a high level of associational engagement display a stronger relationship between public opinion and policy. The findings underline the role civil society organizations can play in policy representation beyond engaging in interest advocacy.

04 并非左派：新旧民主国家的意识形态和抗议参与

题目：

It’s Not the Left: Ideology and Protest Participation in Old and New Democracies

作者：

Filip Kostelka（菲利普·科斯特尔卡），埃塞克斯大学助理教授

Jan Rovny（简·罗夫尼），巴黎政治大学助理教授

摘要：

政治学中的多项研究一致认为，左翼意识形态使个体更容易产生抗议行为。然而，左翼意识形态与抗议之间的联系并未在所有民主国家中得到证实。本文以现有的理论原则为基础，并将其应用于不同的政治语境，揭示了新、旧民主国家中抗议行为的令人费解的变化。本文认为，并不是左派导致了抗议。相反，我们证明了哪些政治阵营参与抗议行为取决于其历史遗产和（对）文化自由主义（的态度）。历史遗产反映了民主化的意识形态。在反对民主前政治秩序的意识形态阵营中，抗议往往更为普遍。与此同时，文化自由主义者更有可能接受参与抗议，不论他们更认同左派或者右派。这些理论预测得到了调查数据分析的支持，解释了欧洲民主国家区域间和区域内差异的对比。

Multiple studies in political science consistently hold that left-wing ideology renders individuals more prone to protest behavior. However, the familiar association between left-wing ideology and protesting is not empirically corroborated in all democratic nations. Building on existing theoretical principles and applying them to diverse political contexts, this article sheds light on puzzling variation in protest behavior across new and old democracies. It argues that it is not the left that engenders protest. Instead, we demonstrate that which political camp engages in protest behavior depends on its historical legacies and cultural liberalism. Historical legacies reflect the ideological configuration at democratization. Protesting tends to be more common in the ideological camp that opposed the pre-democratic political order. Simultaneously, it is culturally liberal individuals who more likely embrace protest participation, independent of their left–right identification. These theoretical expectations are supported through survey data analyses, explaining contrasting inter- and intra-regional variation in European democracies.

05 评估妇女在政府中的代表性与腐败之间的因果关系

题目：

Estimating Causal Relationships Between Women’s Representation in Government and Corruption

作者：

Justin Esarey（贾斯汀·伊萨里），威克森林大學副教授

Leslie A. Schwindt-Bayer（莱斯利·A·施温特·拜耳），莱斯大学教授

摘要：

提高妇女在政府中的代表性是否会削弱腐败，或者腐败是否阻碍了妇女的当选？这些影响是否足够大以至于具有实质意义？一些研究表明，立法机构中女性的存在可以降低腐败程度。这一观点得到了各种理论依据的支撑。其他研究表明，腐败是对妇女代表权的一种威胁，因为它巩固了赋予男性特权的侍从关系网络。使用工具变量，我们发现有力证据表明，提高妇女代表性减少了腐败，腐败则减少了妇女在政府中的参与; 这两种影响都具有实质意义。

Does increasing the representation of women in government lead to less corruption, or does corruption prevent the election of women? Are these effects large enough to be substantively meaningful? Some research suggests that having women in legislatures reduces corruption levels, with a variety of theoretical rationales offered to explain the finding. Other research suggests that corruption is a deterrent to women’s representation because it reinforces clientelistic networks that privilege men. Using instrumental variables, we find strong evidence that women’s representation decreases corruption and that corruption decreases women’s participation in government; both effects are substantively significant.

编译：林俊斯

审校：王悦霖

相关阅读：

编辑：欧阳星

一审：郑   静

二审：宋   婷

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