我院兼职研究员乌比博士在CGTN撰文《“疫情之下的非洲及其未来令人担忧”》

【编者按】2020年4月6日，尼日利亚国际事务研究所国际经济关系部主任、高级研究员，浙师大非洲研究院兼职研究员乌比博士（Dr. Efem N. Ubi）在CGTN发表文章My fear for Africa and its future amidst COVID-19（《疫情之下的非洲及其未来令人担忧》）。乌比博士指出，自新冠肺炎疫情发生以来，关于如何防控疫情的文章比比皆是，却少有人关注疫情对非洲国家的政治、经济和社会发展的影响。随着疫情在全球蔓延，非洲国家的情况令人担忧。自主生产能力不足、过度依赖出口经济、农业欠发达、失业率高和医疗卫生条件薄弱等问题越来越突出。此次疫情充分暴露了非洲国家治理能力的不足和非洲经济发展的疲乏。乌比博士认为，自力更生和自给自足的经济生产是取得抗疫胜利的关键，中国就是最好的证明。中国的抗疫经验值得国际社会效仿。面对疫情，非洲国家要统一战线，加强与国际社会的合作，同时要迅速采取行动，阻止疫情的蔓延。

原文链接：https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-04-06/My-fear-for-Africa-and-its-future-amidst-COVID-19-PtdnbY9oze/index.html?from=singlemessage

Editor's note: Dr. Efem N. Ubi is a senior research fellow and head of the Division of International Economic Relations at Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), Lagos, Nigeria. He is also an adjunct research fellow and visiting scholar, Institute of African Studies (IAS), Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua, China. The article reflects the author's views and not necessarily those of CGTN.

Recent articles on the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) that first appeared at the close of 2019 have specifically focused on orienting and advising people on self-hygiene and on how to prevent against contracting the virus. However, little attention is given to the inherent economic, political and social problems arising from COVID-19 pandemic in Africa and its implication for the future of the continent. Right now, as the pandemic is spreading across the globe, fear looms in Africa.

The fear is two-fold: first, African economies are weak as shown by the deteriorating and worsening social conditions. While Africa accounts for around 17 percent of the world's population, it only accounts for about three percent of global GDP. Meanwhile the total GDP growth of the continent is about 3.7 percent. The continent statistics not only demonstrate the failure of governments to steer development for the continent, but unfortunately, with the advent of COVID-19 pandemic, a looming global recession, and the drop in commodity price, the future of the continent further portends gloom if not well managed; second, many African leaders are not as competent as people have expected them to be when it comes to facilitating development in the country.

Five factors paint the African scenario now and in the future. First, with the advent of COVID-19 pandemic, the African situation is totally worst-off in many ways because like every other stuff, nearly everything needed to fight the COVID-19 War are imported and begged-for, from simple medical equipments like mask, protective kits etc; medications; to food. From all indication, not many African countries are "self-sustaining and reliant." Most depend solely on importation of finished products from the advanced economies. The truth is that, "Dependent survival is in earnest a source of failure."

Secondly, many African countries economies are subject to the "commodity trap." They rely solely on export of commodities for revenues. Thus, any external shocks affecting commodity price affects their domestic economy.

Thirdly, agriculture, a sector that employs more people is in a dismal state in Africa. Many African countries have not moved away from subsistent farming and do not encourage mechanized and cooperative farming. Food production is low, with no value chain.

Fourth, unemployment in Africa is huge. Many graduates do not have jobs and cannot sustain themselves. Invariably, the lockdown in many countries will escalate poverty.

Fifth, it is a known fact that, the health sector in Africa is the worst of them all. While African leaders have refused to fix the health sector, they prefer to travel to advanced countries for their treatment. It is only COVID-19 pandemic that has engendered many African governments to put in place ad-hoc palliatives.

Indeed, COVID-19 has unearthed the true state of inherent problems of leadership and governance in many countries of Africa and has further shown how inept leaders in many countries of Africa are, and more so, open bare the porosity and paucity of Africa's economy and development.

Thus, what guarantee a nation's victory in war is multifaceted and includes four important factors: technology (industrialization), a robust economy with huge reserves, agriculture and food production, and a credible population. In other words, such a nation must be to a considerable extent self-reliant and self-sustaining; this however, does not negate interdependence.

Today, the People's Republic of China (PRC) portends a lucid example for all nations, both developing and developed to emulate in their fight against the war on COVID-19. It is important to recapitulate here that China is the world's second largest economy and contributes about 30 percent to the global economy. And since the "opening-up" policy in 1978, the Chinese economy has remained the production house of the world. In the "People's War" against COVID-19, China proved that the above-mentioned indicators are indubitable guarantor to its victory. On March 19, 2020, the number of new domestically driven cases in China fell to zero, except imported new cases in from Europe, the United States and other parts of the world. On the contrary, COVID-19 cases in the U.S., Spain and Italy have surpassed that of China during its peak of the pandemic. Cases in U.S alone has exceeded 300, 000. Meanwhile, the global infectious rate is now over one million and still counting.

The question is, if it is proving very difficult for the developed countries of the West with robust economies to win the COVID-19 war, how easy is it for the developing countries of Africa with dilapidating domestic economy to win? Thus, while the fears of contracting the virus and the resulting death exist, the ultimate fear for many people in Africa is the possibility of their government being able to battle this pandemic on many fronts. This, therefore, highlights the importance of international cooperation and assistance to Africa that could help the continent better tackle the situation. But it also requires the governments in the continent to take quick action and keep in place strict social distancing rules to stem the spread of the disease.

抗疫专题
Can China-style quarantine against COVID-19 go global?|迈克尔称赞中国经验
China Leading the Fight of the COVID-19 | 我院留学生爱德表示中国战“疫”为世界提供典范
Increasing shining beacon of hope by statistics  | 迈克儿为中国抗疫打CALL
Hodan: A call to humanize people's suffering  | 和丹呼吁：全球应同舟共济克服疫情
中国为世界公共卫生安全作出了巨大贡献 | 我院非洲学者约罗参赞在境外力挺中国抗疫工作
非洲来信之二：我们一直牵挂着你们 | We are keeping you in our thoughts
非洲来信：“我与你们站在一起” | I Stand with You in This Critical Time
中国为世界公共卫生安全作出了巨大贡献 | 我院非洲学者约罗参赞在境外力挺中国抗疫工作
在齐心抗疫中构建更加紧密的中非命运共同体 | 浙师大非洲研究院王珩、于桂章在《光明日报》发文
我院尼日利亚学者迈克博士等全球汉学家祈福中国：我们的第二故乡，加油！｜“ 山川异域，风月同天”
Foued Larby ：The Patriotic Dragons ｜非洲研究院非洲留学生为中国抗疫点赞加油

来源 | CGTN

编译 | 张利萍

发布 | 浙师大非洲研究院科研办

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浙江师范大学非洲研究院（IASZNU）是在教育部、外交部支持下于2007年成立的中国高校首个综合性、实体性非洲研究院，经十余年发展已成为有广泛影响力的中国非洲研究机构与国家对非事务智库，成为国内首个拥有非洲研究“长江学者”特聘教授的学术机构，是教育部区域和国别研究基地、教育部浙江师范大学中国南非人文交流研究中心、外交部“中非联合研究交流计划指导委员会指导单位”和“中非智库10+10合作伙伴计划”中方智库、教育部“中非高校20+20合作计划”单位、浙江省2011协同创新中心、浙江省新型重点专业智库。

      近年来，非洲研究院自2016年以来连续第四次入选《全球智库报告》“最佳区域研究中心”（大学附属），还先后入选中国社科院"中国智库综合评价核心智库榜单”、“南京大学中国智库索引（CTTI）”中国高校智库百强A+、《2018年中国智库报告》高校智库（特色）系统影响力排行榜第4、《中华智库影响力报告（2018）》高校智库影响力排行榜第9，等。

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Established in 2007, the Institute of African Studies at Zhejiang Normal University, is the first comprehensive and substantive African Research Institute based in China’s universities. In the decade since its founding, the Institute has remained focused on both producing influential academic output, as well as cultivating scholars in African Studies from both China and Africa, gaining reputation as a highly influential academic institution both at home and abroad. At the onset of its second decade, the Institute of African Studies intends to move towards a more regionalized, nationalized, distinctive and internationally oriented direction in its research. At the same time, the institute will continue to encourage young and upcoming scholars to conduct research, and provide them with the necessary support.

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L’IASZNU a été fondée en Septembre 2007 sous les auspices du Ministère de l’Éducation (MOE) et le Ministère des Affaires Étrangères (MFA). Parmi les Universités chinoises, c’est le premier Institut complet créé spécialement pour les études africaines. Après plus de 10 années de développement, l’IASZNU est devenue un Institut d’études et un Think Tanks très influent sur les affaires africaines en Chine qui possède un « Savant du Chang Jiang » des études africaines. Il est le Think Tanks chinois sur le  « Plan Think Tanks du Partenariat Chine-Afrique 10 + 10 » et un des établissements guides sur le « Plan de Recherche Conjointe et d’Echange Chine-Afrique » du Ministère des Affaires Étrangères. Il est sélectionné par le Ministère de l’Éducation pour « La Coopération Universitaire Chine-Afrique 20+20 », en tant que base principale pour des études du continent et des études spécifiques de pays. Il est également sélectionné par la Province du Zhejiang comme le Centre d’Innovation Collaborative 2011, la base de recherche de la Philosophie et des Sciences Sociales dans la province de Zhejiang. L’IASZNU a été classé parmi les meilleurs Think Tanks (affiliés à une Université) au monde pendant deux années consécutives, en 2016 et en 2017, par le Global Think Tanks Index publié annuellement par la Pennsylvanie Université. En 2018, l’Institut a été classé comme l’un des meilleurs Think Tanks affilié à une université en Chine avec le classement A + du système de classement chinois (CTTI).