IEA主席《贸易、技术与习近平之问》（双语）

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2018年7月6日，国际经济协会主席Kaushik Basu发表署名文章《贸易、技术与习近平之问》，现中英双语全文编译仅供参考。文章版权归原作者所有，观点不代表本机构立场。

《贸易、技术与习近平之问》

Trade, Technology, and Xi Jinping’s Question

作者：Kaushik Basu

编译：学术plus

原载：https://www.project-syndicate.org/

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“It was the best of times; it was the worst of times,” said President Xi Jinping, quoting Charles Dickens’ famous line to open his speech at the 2017 World Economic Forum. “Today,” Xi continued, “we also live in a world of contradictions.” On one hand, “growing material wealth and advances in science and technology” have enabled unprecedented rates of development. On the other hand, “frequent regional conflicts, global challenges like terrorism and refugees, as well as poverty, unemployment, and a widening income gap” are generating deep uncertainty.

Xi then posed a potent question: “What has gone wrong with the world?”

“这是最好的时代，也是最坏的时代”在2017年世界经济论坛上习近平主席引用查尔斯狄更斯的名言，他说“今天，我们也生活在一个矛盾的世界之中。一方面，物质财富不断积累，科技进步日新月异，人类文明发展到历史最高水平。另一方面，地区冲突频繁发生，恐怖主义、难民潮等全球性挑战此起彼伏，贫困、失业、收入差距拉大，世界面临的不确定性上升。"然后,他提出了一个问题：

“世界到底怎么了？”

Perhaps the answer lies with the very technology that Xi regards as the key to China’s rise to high-income status. Specifically, it may be that we have reached a turning point in the march of technological progress – one that we are navigating very badly.

也许答案就在于习近平指出的中国成为高收入国家所需的“关键技术”。人类社会可能已经到了技术进步的转折点，但我们前行的方向非常糟糕。

Technology has been shaping and reshaping our lives ever since early human beings discovered how to make tools from stone. It is only natural for such a long process to include moments when technological change generates unprecedented challenges.

自人类学会用石头制造工具以来，技术一直在塑造和重塑我们的生活。在这样一个漫长的过程中，应对技术变革所带来的前所未有的挑战，是很自然的事情。

One such turning point was the Industrial Revolution. In mid-eighteenth-century Britain, the revolution’s birthplace, progress entailed considerable adversity. Some workers toiled 12-14 hours per day, yet inequality surged. And the incidence of child labor rose beyond the levels seen in some of the poorest Sub-Saharan African economies today.

其中一个转折点就是工业革命。在18世纪中期，工业革命的诞生地英国，技术进步带来了相当大的不幸。一些工人每天工作12-14小时，不平等现象却激增。童工的发生率也超过了撒哈拉以南非洲一些最贫穷经济体目前的水平。

But Europe rose to the occasion. Groundbreaking research in economics was carried out by the likes of Adam Smith and Antoine Cournot, leading to novel interventions like progressive income tax, as well as new labor laws and regulations. As a result, the Industrial Revolution accelerated economic development and human welfare.

欧洲人挺身而出。亚当•斯密和安东尼•考诺特等人在经济学领域进行了开创性研究，累进所得税等新型干预措施，以及新的劳动法和法规，令工业革命加速了经济的发展和人类的福利。

This so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution is centered on advances in digital technology, including “labor-linking technologies” (which enable workers across continents to work together in real time) and, more recently, artificial intelligence and robotics.

人类发展已经看到了其他“工业革命”，包括目前正在展开的革命。这种所谓的第四次工业革命的核心是数字技术的进步，包括“劳动力连接技术”（使各大洲的工人能够实时协同工作），以及最近的人工智能和机器人技术。

These advances have enabled economic globalization, which, like the Industrial Revolution, has brought unprecedented progress, as Xi acknowledged, while generating new challenges, including rising inequality and worker vulnerability. But instead of managing those challenges, as Europe did in the nineteenth century, much of the world is succumbing to political polarization, rising nationalism, and a toxic blame game. Most notably, the United States under President Donald Trump has initiated what is rapidly escalating into a tit-for-tat trade war – one that will be devastating for the entire world, but especially for the US itself.

这些进步促进了经济全球化，正如习近平所强调的，它像工业革命一样带来了前所未有的进步，同时带来了新的挑战，包括日益加剧的不平等和工人的脆弱性。但与19世纪欧洲应对这些挑战不同的是，现在世界上许多国家屈从于政治两极分化、民族主义以及恶劣的相互指责。最值得注意的是，在唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的领导下，美国发动了一场迅速升级的、针锋相对的贸易战。这场贸易战将对整个世界(尤其是美国本身)造成毁灭性打击。

What such behavior fails to take into account is that globalization is, fundamentally, a natural phenomenon. It is the result of billions of individuals going about their daily activities, making decisions based on the possibilities available to them. Arguing against globalization is as constructive as blaming gravity for a building’s collapse. As Xi pointed out in his WEF speech, it “is a natural outcome of scientific and technological progress, not something created by any individuals or any countries.”

这种行为没有考虑到的是，全球化从根本上说是一种必然现象。它是数十亿个人进行日常活动的结果，他们根据自己的可能性做出决定。反对全球化就像把大楼倒塌归咎于重力一样。正如习近平在世界经济论坛的讲话中指出的“经济全球化是社会生产力发展的客观要求和科技进步的必然结果，不是哪些人、哪些国家人为造出来的。”

In the case of Trump’s trade war, US policy also reflects a misunderstanding – one that economists have repeatedly pointed out – about bilateral trade deficits. According to Trump, a trade deficit is essentially a loss, and the countries with surpluses vis-à-vis the US, such as Mexico or China, are behaving in unfair and exploitative ways. Thus, they should be made to pay.

就特朗普的贸易战而言，美国的政策也反映了对双边贸易逆差的误解（经济学家一再指出过这点）。特朗普认为，贸易逆差本质上是一种损失，与美国相比，拥有贸易顺差的国家(如墨西哥或中国)的行为是不公平和掠夺性的。因此，他们必须付钱。

To understand the fallacy, consider your interaction with the neighborhood grocery store. At the end of each year, you run up a large “trade deficit” vis-à-vis the store, because the store sells goods to you, whereas you do not sell anything to the store. To claim that China “owes” the US for its trade bilateral trade surplus would be like saying that your local grocery store owes you for the money you spent there during the last year. In fact, you were not cheated, just as your employer was not cheated by the bilateral deficit it runs with you. Rather, you made mutually beneficial transactions based on your needs.

为理解这种谬论，不妨用您与您家附近杂货店打个比方：在每年年底，你都会对这家杂货店产生巨大的“贸易逆差” ，因为商店向你出售商品，而你不向商店出售任何东西。声称中国“欠美国”的双边贸易顺差，就像是你说当地的杂货店，欠你去年在那里花的钱。事实上你并没有受到欺骗，就像你的雇主没有被你们之间的“双边赤字”欺骗一样。相反，你按照自己的需要进行了互惠互利的交易。

The modern economy depends on bilateral trade deficits; it would collapse without them. In an age of advanced technologies and accelerating specialization, attempting to manufacture everything domestically or bilaterally would be prohibitively costly.

现代经济依赖于双边贸易逆差；没有他们就会崩溃。在一个技术先进、专业化进程加快的时代，试图在国内或双边生产所有产品，其成本将高得令人生畏。

For now, the US seems committed to its demands that its partners pay up. The more likely scenario, however, is that economies like Canada, Europe, and Mexico will seek to offset the impact of Trump’s tariffs by deepening their ties with China – an obvious win for America’s main global competitor. Meanwhile, US corporations will probably move production elsewhere to avoid retaliatory tariffs, as some – such as Harley-Davidson – have already threatened to do.

就目前而言，美国似乎坚持要求其合作伙伴偿还债务。然而更有可能出现的情况是，加拿大、欧洲和墨西哥等经济体将寻求通过深化与中国的关系来抵消特朗普关税带来的影响，这对美国的主要全球竞争对手来说显然是一场胜利。与此同时，美国企业可能会将生产转移到其他地方，以避免报复性关税，哈雷戴维森等公司已经威胁要这么做。

There is no denying that the technological turning point at which we find ourselves has caused strain for all countries. But instead of blaming one another for the challenges generated by technological progress – an approach that will only bring about the worst of times – we should work together to address them. Any country that refuses to do so will create strain for all – and end up condemning itself to being left behind.

不可否认，技术进步的转折点给所有国家造成了压力。但我们不应该相互指责技术进步带来的挑战（这种方法只会导致最坏的时代），而是应该共同努力解决这些问题。任何拒绝这样做的国家都将给所有人造成压力，并最终在谴责声中被甩在后面。

（全文完）

Kaushik Basu

2017年6月至今

国际经济协会主席；

2012-2016

世界银行首席经济学家；

2009-2012

印度政府首席经济顾问。

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