海外之声 | “美国优先”下的双赤字危机：特朗普忽视了美国低储蓄率的影响（中英双语）

观点速递

本文作者是美国企业研究所的常驻研究员德蒙·拉彻曼。他曾任国际货币基金组织政策发展和审查部副主任以及所罗门美邦公司首席新兴市场经济策略师。原文刊发于OMFIF Commentary。OMFIF是一家总部位于伦敦的全球金融智库。

作者指出，特朗普总统实施的“美国优先”贸易政策与其推行的扩张性预算政策存在矛盾，比起投资率，减少美国贸易赤字的必要条件是必须提高其储蓄率。忽视这一点，政府无法意识到其贸易政策目标与其预算提案之间存在着根本差异。同时，中国是美国国债的最大持有国，与其进行贸易斗争似乎将影响到美国财政融资问题。然而，按照特朗普政府一贯的风格，很大可能仍会保持着单方面的美国优先立场。

中文译文如下：

“美国优先”下的双赤字危机

特朗普忽视了美国低储蓄率的影响

德蒙·拉彻曼

翻译：来程颖、周彤、林莉

审校：罗添

2018年4月3日

保持经济政策的一致性不是特朗普政府的长项。这点从当局对中国贸易提案和自身预算政策之间的相互矛盾就能看出。对美国及全球经济来说，这或许不会带来好结果。

特朗普总统“美国优先”贸易政策的一大目标就是消除美国普遍的贸易逆差，尤其是与中国。为此，特朗普总统已宣布大幅提高钢铝的进口关税，并增加对中国约600亿美元进口商品的关税。此外，他还要求中国采取措施，将其与美国的双边贸易顺差减少1000亿美元。其最终目的在于通过推动中国进口美国商品以降低美国的赤字。

特朗普总统在实施“美国优先”贸易政策的同时，也在推行扩张性预算政策。尽管美联储认为美国经济现正处于充分就业或超出充分就业状态，但他仍一意孤行。根据国会预算办公室的数据，特朗普总统提出了一项缺乏资金支持的减税措施，预计未来十年预算赤字将增加1.5万亿美元，同时他还提交了一项国会法案，该法案将在未来两年内增加3000亿美元的公共支出。

特朗普政府似乎没有意识到，减少美国贸易赤字的必要条件是比起投资率，美国必须提高其储蓄率。无论政府如何调整进口限制和汇率政策，这一点都不会变。忽视这一经济学基本原理，使政府无法意识到其贸易政策目标与其预算提案之间存在着根本差异。

根据美国联邦预算问责委员会（一个总部设在华盛顿的非营利组织），在2019年，减税和增支措施使美国的预算赤字从2017年的6,000亿美元增长到超过1.1万亿美元。在那时，家庭储蓄已经下降到很低的水平，赤字的预期扩大将不可避免地会降低整体储蓄水平。这也会导致贸易逆差扩大，正如里根双赤字时期那样，美国同时经历了财政赤字和经常项目赤字。.

美国和全球经济前景当前面临危险，即美国贸易赤字的扩大将使世界范围内破坏性贸易战爆发的可能大大增加。而这是因为，特朗普总统在贸易赤字变大的背景下还将一意孤行，进一步强化进口限制。

特朗普政府对中国的贸易政策与其预算政策的另一冲突涉及美国财政赤字的融资问题。中国是美国国债最大的持有国，当美国财政赤字预计会在未来两年内翻一番时，人们不得不质疑，美国与中国展开斗争是否明智。

随着全球资产价格达到高位，对特朗普政府而言，最不利的是长期政府债券利率上涨。这种上涨可能会使美国和全球金融市场变得动荡，但这似乎是美国正在追求的结果。美联储已经不再大量买入美国国债，而是开始卖出，以期努力缩小其臃肿不堪的资产负债表。在政府借款预计将大幅上升的同时，美国却在激怒其国债的最大持有人。

综合考虑各方利益，人们迫切希望特朗普总统能够摒弃单方面的美国优先立场。但是从特朗普总统之前的言辞态度和其经济团队最近的人事变动来看，我认为这一期待可能不会成真。

英文原文如下：

Twin deficit danger of 'America first'

Trump unaware of influence of low US savings

Desmond Lachman in Washington

  3 Apr 2018

Economic policy consistency is not the Trump administration's long suit. All one need do is look at how the administration's China trade proposals conflict with its budget policy. That conflict is not likely to end well for the US and global economies.

A principal objective of President Trump's 'America first' trade policy is to eliminate the US trade deficit in general and that with China in particular. To that end, President Trump has announced a large increase in steel and aluminum import tariffs as well as higher tariffs on $60bn of Chinese products. In addition, he is demanding that China takes measures to reduce its bilateral trade surplus with the US by $100bn. The ultimate goal is to reduce the US deficit by boosting China’s imports of US goods.

While implementing his America first trade policy, President Trump is also pursuing an expansionary budget policy. He is doing so even though the Federal Reserve judges that the US economy is at or beyond full employment. He has introduced an unfunded tax cut that will increase the budget deficit by $1.5tn over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office, and he has gone along with a Congressional bill that will increase public spending by $300bn over the next two years.

The Trump administration seems unaware that a necessary condition for the reduction of the US trade deficit is that the US must raise its savings rate relative to its investment rate. This holds true whatever the government might do regarding import restrictions and exchange rate policy. Overlooking this basic tenet of economics seems to blind the administration to the fundamental inconsistency between its trade policy objectives and its budget proposals.

According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a Washington-based non-profit organization, the tax and spending measures will increase the US budget deficit to more than $1.1tn as early as 2019, from $660bn in 2017. At a time when household saving has sunk to very low levels, the prospective widening in the budget deficit will almost inevitably reduce the overall level of savings. It will also cause the trade deficit to widen as it did in the time of the Reagan twin deficits, when the US experienced both a fiscal and a current account deficit.

A clear and present danger to the US and global economic outlook is that a widening of the US trade deficit would heighten the chances that the world will drift towards a destructive trade war. It would do so by raising the prospect that a misguided President Trump would double down on import restrictions as a response to further widening in the trade deficit.

Another area in which the administration's China trade policy conflicts with its budget policy relates to the financing of the US budget deficit. One has to question the wisdom of picking a fight with China, the largest holder of US Treasuries, at a time when the US budget deficit is set to approximately double over the next two years.

With global asset prices having reached lofty levels, the last thing the Trump administration needs is a spike in long-term government bond rates that could roil US and global financial markets. Yet that is what the US seems to be inviting. Rather than being a large buyer of US Treasuries, the Federal Reserve has become a seller in an effort to shrink its bloated balance sheet. And the US is antagonizing the largest holder of Treasuries while government borrowing is set to rise sharply.

Given the stakes involved, one has to hope that President Trump will find a way to back down from his unilateral America first stance. Judging by his past rhetoric and the recent changes in his economic team, I am not holding my breath.

内容整理 罗梦宇

图文编辑 罗梦宇

审校  田雯

监制  朱霜霜

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