Preface
i. 这是本公号第58篇。
ii. ETH 打赏地址：
0x563f77a593afcdaba9bf455bd416fbbad0a38294
Top Onco Pharma关注的新领域
往期梳理了2018~2019 M&A及Top10 Onco Pharma关注的新兴领域。交易布局R&D方向大致以围绕疾病领域，从pipeline&portfolio和新兴技术/平台两个维度匹配标的。除mPAbs、BsPAbs、bsTCEs、ADC、CAR-T/TCR，IO和基因治疗相关交易活跃、临床管线多产。下述枚举Roche、Pfizer、Novartis、AZ各家公开发布的R&D资产布局，从资产和技术平台两个维度，获取方式或自有或交易获取，基本思路以管线资产获得为结局进行布局。Roceh Pharma Day investor presentation
Pfizer Cowen and Company Healthcare Conference investor presentation
Novartis R&D Day investor presentation
AZ General investor presentation
New Emerging Biopharma 清单
根据EvaluatePharma oulook 2024公开报告所示,R&D资产（Ph1~3）重仓首位Oncology,预估NPV $78.2B。
Pharmaprojects统计的Preclinical~Ph3资产数量排位前三anticancer、immunological、genetherapy，资产数量排位以大药厂十分正常，仍以各家大药厂为主。
悖论：
1、资产（数量）重仓以大药厂为主
2、创新资产输出以实验室/小企业(emerging biopharmas)孵化活跃3、资本介入阶段及方式多元
基本逻辑：
1、R&D资产驱动的生意2、who cares, who pays
从优质资产获取为出发点，大致包括collaborative R&D deals、licensing deals、inbound partnership、M&A deals等。或自拜登法案以来，双长制创新商业转化模式愈加流畅，资本介入阶段及方式多样。
大致梳理了下Nasdaq二级潜在进入“Saturday Night Special”标的。
筛选参考来源：Nasdaq 2018~2019 IPO list、PhRMA Development List、IQVIA Emerging biopharma公开报告、公开文献-Antibodies to watch in 2019: mAbs: Vol 11, No 2；Morrison, C. (2018). Boom: 2018's biotech IPOs.；Medicines in Development for Cancer）。
排除条件：独立品牌+Oncology/Genetherapy+资产数量+独立技术平台+非主营技术输出
大致主观得到一张34个标的大表，见下表。
往期相关参考：《2019 M&A 标的盘点之. Gambling Indicators 》《创新药的挑战之. 临床前研发溯源》《IR之伍. 寻找菠菜gPD-L1 ADC》《IR之伍. ADC药物 Narrow Landscape(附在研list)》《PD-1 PD-L1之. 3张图》《贰零壹捌年 · 一叶障目（附ARK invest 2018 ideas）》
Clinical Development Spend vs Risk Adjusted FDA Approvals by Therapy Area \ EvaluatePharma®World Preview 2019, Outlook to 2024
34 Gambling Indicators (MarketCap取自25-Dec)
MarketCap排位前三均逾$10B。Constellation(CNST)关注表观遗传点肿瘤新疗法(EZH2、BET)。Seattle Genetics(SGEN)往期提及，ADC资产输出主力。Sarepta(SRPT)主力RNA-targeted therapy、Gnne therapy及新兴CRISPR，已有两款RNA药物Exondys 51、Vyondys 53商业化。MarketCap $1~10B区间约22个标的，前三以盛产（资产数量）RNA targeted Therapy标的Ionis(IONS)、BioNTech SE(BNTX)、Moderna(MRNA)，均有资产输出(partnering Deals、collaborative R&D deals、inbound partnership)。同以CRISPR起家，CRISPR Tx(CRSP)与Editas(EDIT)跑速差距渐大。另，押大宝Aprea(APRE)重仓p53，Allakos(ALLK)重仓Siglec-8。ABs/IO或还看靶点机制成型，重新靶点或新疗法，看吧。
下述几个pipeline仅供参看，注：未涉及RNA/Gene Tx主力盛产且多输出标的Sarepta (SRPT)、Ionis(IONS)、BioNTech SE(BNTX)、Moderna(MRNA)。
NextCure Pipeline
CRISPR Tx Pipeline
Editas Pipeline
IGM Biosciences Pipeline
igmbio.com
A Man for All Markets
文末附Thorp《A man for all markets》5条grwth loop。
1st, rather than subscribing to widely accepted views - such as u can't beat the casinos - I checked for myself.2nd, since I tested theories by inventing new experiments, I formed the habit of taking the result of pure thought and using it profitably.3rd, I made a realistic plan and persisted until I succeeded.4th, strove to be consistently rational in dealing with all aspects of the world.
Also, learned the value of withholding judgement untill could make a decision based on evidence.
君安