德国前外长：特朗普助力中国伟大复兴

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2018年6月22日，德国政坛名宿，施罗德时期外交部长Joschka Fischer发表文章《特朗普给中国的礼物》，认为特朗普的一系列政策，正在使得西方整体转向中国，帮助中国实现“伟大复兴”。现中英双语全文对照仅供参考，需要说明的是，本文中“pivot to Asia”具有多重含义，我们在翻译时未作统一，如有不妥可参照原文。文章版权归原作者所有，不代表本机构观点。原链接请点击“阅读原文”。

Joschka Fischer

德国政坛名宿，前外交部长兼副总理

Trump’s Gift to China

《特朗普给中国的礼物》

作者：Joschka Fischer

编译：学术plus

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It is now clear that the twenty-first century is ushering in a new world order. As uncertainty and instability associated with that process spread around the globe, the West has responded with either timidity or nostalgia for older forms of nationalism that failed in the past and certainly will not work now.

现在很清楚，二十一世纪正在迎来一个新的世界秩序。由于与这一进程相关的不确定性和不稳定性遍布全球，西方对于过去失败的旧式民族主义心生胆怯，当下肯定更不会发挥作用。

Even to the most inveterate optimist, the G7 summit in Quebec earlier this month was proof that the geopolitical West is breaking up and losing its global significance, and that the great destroyer of that American-created and American-led order is none other than the US president. To be sure, Donald Trump is more a symptom than a cause of the West’s disintegration. But he is accelerating the process dramatically.

即使是对最坚定的乐天派而言，本月早些时候在魁北克举行的G7峰会也证明，西方地缘政治正在分化并失去其全球意义，破坏美国创造并领导的世界秩序的人无疑就是美国总统。可以肯定的是，唐纳德特朗普更像一个病症，而不是西方解体的病因。但他正在大幅加速这一进程。

The roots of Western malaise can be traced back to the end of the Cold War, when a bipolar world order gave way to economic globalization, allowing for the emergence of new powers such as China. In the ensuing decades, America has apparently come to regard its longstanding alliances as more of a burden than an asset.

西方不适的根源可以追溯到冷战结束，当时两极世界格局让位于经济全球化，允许出现像中国这样的新大国。随后的几十年中，美国显然认为其长期联盟更多是一种负担而不是资产。

This applies not just to Europe, Japan, and South Korea, but also to America’s immediate neighbors, Canada and Mexico. Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum left the US and Canada deeply divided at the Quebec summit, and their split over trade is certain to have much broader political implications.

这不仅适用于欧洲，日本和韩国，也适用于美国的近邻加拿大和墨西哥。特朗普对进口钢铁和铝征收关税的决定，使得美国和加拿大在魁北克首脑会议上分歧很大，他们在贸易上的分歧肯定会带来更广泛的政治影响。

Europe and the North Atlantic dominated the global economy for four centuries. Not anymore. And the new geography of power implied by the shift in the world’s economic center of gravity from the transatlantic region toward the Asia-Pacific region does not conform to the conceptual map of twentieth-century – let alone nineteenth-century – geopolitics.

欧洲和北大西洋在全球经济中四个世纪的主导地位将不再延续，世界经济的重心将从跨大西洋地区，向蕴含新权力的亚太地区转移，这与20世纪的世界版图（更不用说19世纪的地缘政治学）并不一致。

Though the US remains the world’s leading superpower, China has emerged as both a new and ancient geopolitical force. With a population of 1.4 billion people and an enormous domestic market, China is already challenging the US as the world’s economic, political, and technological leader.

虽然美国仍然是世界领先的超级大国，但古老的中国已经成为新的地缘政治力量。中国拥有14亿人口和巨大的国内市场，已经在挑战美国的世界经济，政治和技术领导地位。

Anyone who has ever visited the corridors of power in Beijing knows that Chinese leaders have their own map of the world. On it, China – the “Middle Kingdom” – lies at the center, while Europe and the US drop off the left and right sides, respectively. In other words, the US and Europe – that odd miscellany of small and medium-size nation-states – are already divided and consigned to the margins.

任何曾经访问过北京的人都知道，中国领导人心中有自己的世界版图。中国（ 中央之国 ）位于中心，欧美分居左右两翼。换句话说，美国和欧洲已经分裂，并被边缘化。

The US initially reacted to this century’s geopolitical changes intuitively, with a “pivot to Asia.” But America has long had a presence in both the Atlantic and the Pacific; and, as the last remaining global power, it is in a position to anticipate historic geopolitical changes in such a way as to guard its own interests.

最初，美国直觉地对本世纪的地缘政治变化做出了反应，并以“重返亚洲”为目标。但美国在大西洋和太平洋地区一直存在，作为最后的全球性力量，它能够以保护自身利益的方式预见历史上的地缘政治变化。

Europe, on the other hand, has been sleepwalking through today’s historical interregnum. Europeans have concerned themselves largely with introspection, ancient animosities, and sweet dreams of the nineteenth century, when they still ruled the world. And that narrow outlook has been reinforced by events such as Trump’s election and the United Kingdom’s Brexit referendum.

另一方面，欧洲一直在梦游般地经历着今天的历史过渡期。欧洲人关心的是自省、宿怨和19世纪的美梦，当时他们还统治着世界。而特朗普当选和英国退欧进一步强化了这种狭隘。

Still, rather than dwell on Trump’s bizarre behavior, we would do well to remember that today’s global developments predate his presidency. The “pivot to Asia,” after all, was inaugurated by former US President Barack Obama. Trump has merely carried it forward, most recently by meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore.

尽管如此，我们不应该纠缠于特朗普的怪异行径，要知道今天的全球发展早于他就任总统。毕竟“转向亚洲”是由美国前总统奥巴马开始的，特朗普只是将其推进，最近在新加坡与朝鲜领导人金正恩会面。

Insofar that Trump’s policies pose serious risks, it is not because they represent a strategic reorientation for the US, which was happening anyway, but rather because they are self-contradictory and unnecessarily destructive. For example, when Trump calls for a reduction in US military involvement in the Middle East, he is merely echoing Obama.

在特朗普的政策构成严重风险，这不是因为它代表了美国的战略重新定位，（无论如何它正在发生）而是因为它们是自相矛盾的，并且具有毫无必要的破坏性。例如当特朗普呼吁美国军队减少参与中东事务时，他只是在反击奥巴马。

Yet by reneging on the nuclear deal with Iran, Trump has made war in the region more likely. And by going out of his way to alleviate North Korea’s international isolation, while getting almost nothing in return, he has strengthened China’s position in East Asia.

然而通过违背与伊朗的核协议，特朗普更有可能在该地区发动战争。为了减轻朝鲜的国际孤立，同时几乎没有任何回报，他加强了中国在东亚的地位。

Trump’s global trade war is equally self-defeating. By slapping tariffs on America’s closest allies, he is practically driving them into China’s arms. If European and Japanese exporters are facing protectionist barriers in the US, what other option do they have than tapping the Chinese market? Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s militarism in Eastern Ukraine and efforts to influence the outcome of Western elections, a Europe without its North Atlantic backstop has no choice but to turn toward Eurasia.

特朗普的全球贸易战同样是一种自我挫败。通过对美国最亲密的盟友征收关税，他实际上将他们赶向中国的怀抱。如果欧洲和日本的出口商在美国面临贸易保护壁垒，那么他们除了开拓中国市场还有什么其他选择？尽管俄罗斯总统普京在乌克兰东部采取行动，并在着力影响西方选举，但一个没有北约做后盾的欧洲别无选择，只能转向欧亚大陆。

Moreover, even without US protectionism, Japan was going to have to accommodate China’s growing economic power sooner or later. The last chance to contain the Chinese heavyweight disappeared when Trump scrapped the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which would have created a US-led Pacific Rim bulwark against China.

而且，即使没有美国的保护主义，日本迟早也不得不适应中国不断增长的经济实力。当特朗普撤销跨太平洋伙伴关系时，遏制中国的最后机会消失了，该伙伴关系将创造一个以美国为首的太平洋边缘堡垒对抗中国。

The “pivot to Asia” will thus play out very differently on each side of the Atlantic. In the absence of joint US-EU policies to maintain transatlantic cohesion, the West will quickly become a thing of the past. With the US looking westward across the Pacific, and Europe looking eastward toward Eurasia, China will be the sole winner. The real strategic danger of the Trump era, then, is not merely that the global order is changing. It is that Trump’s policies are guaranteed to “Make China great again.”

因此，“转向亚洲”对大西洋两岸的意义各不相同。在美国和欧盟没有联合政策来维持跨大西洋的凝聚力的情况下，西方将很快成为过去。随着美国向西越过太平洋，欧洲向东望向欧亚大陆，中国将是唯一的赢家。

那么特朗普时代的真正战略危险，不仅仅在于全球秩序正在发生变化。而在于他的政策将确保中国“伟大复兴”。

原文：https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-gift-to-china-by-joschka-fischer-2018-06

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