【精译求精系列】：塞斯•卡拉曼《安全边际》中的30个重要思想（上篇）

编者按：

当今的投资界，除了沃伦·巴菲特，最受敬仰的莫过于基金公司Baupost Group的塞斯•卡拉曼了。自从1983年卡拉曼成立了自己的基金公司，他不仅创下无可匹敌的收益率（年复合增长率超过20%），还时常分享他对市场和投资睿智又经典的见解。

塞斯•卡拉曼是《安全边际：为有想法的投资者准备的风险规避型价值投资策略》一书的作者。这本书1991年初次出版后便立即成为了价值投资的经典著作。

这次，格隆汇精译求精团队，将本书的30个重要思想，翻译整理出来，相信他们会帮助各位成为更好，更敏锐的投资者。

1: Value Investing isn’t Easy

一：价值投资并不简单

Value investing requires a great deal of hard work, unusually strict discipline, and a long-term investment horizon. Few are willing and able to devote sufficient time and effort to become value investors, and only a fraction of those have the proper mindset to succeed.

价值投资需要投入大量精力和努力，非一般严格的纪律，还有长期投资的视野。只有少数人投入了做价值投资者所需的时间和精力，但这里面能建立起合适的投资观并成功的人就更少了。

Like most eighth- grade algebra students, some investors memorize a few formulas or rules and superficially appear competent but do not really understand what they are doing. To achieve long-term success over many financial market and economic cycles, observing a few rules is not enough.

就像大多数八年级的代数学生一样，一些投资者只是简单地记了几个公式或者规则就觉得自己天下无敌了，但很多时候他们并不知道自己到底在干什么。想要在金融市场和经济周期中获得长期的成功，单纯只靠观察总结出几条规则来是不够的。

Too many things change too quickly in the investment world for that approach to succeed. It is necessary instead to understand the rationale behind the rules in order to appreciate why they work when they do and don't when they don't.

投资的世界里太多事情变得太快，所以我们需要明白规则背后的基本原理，这样才能知道为什么有些事情会发生，有些事情不。

Value investing is not a concept that can be learned and applied gradually over time. It is either absorbed and adopted at once, or it is never truly learned. Value investing is simple to understand but difficult to implement. Value investors are not super-sophisticated analytical wizards who create and apply intricate computer models to find attractive opportunities or assess underlying value.

价值投资不是靠长时间的学习和实践就能学习和掌握的，这种投资理念，要么（天生适合你，所以）你一下子就能学会，要么你一辈子都无法真正得其精髓。理解价值投资很简单，实操却很难。价值投资者也不是精于分析超复杂数据的巫师，他们也不会编写出复杂的电脑模型去发现潜在价值，寻找优质的投资机会。

The hard part is discipline, patience, and judgment. Investors need discipline to avoid the many unattractive pitches that are thrown, patience to wait for the right pitch, andjudgment to know when it is time to swing.

最难的部分是自律，还有判断。价值投资者需要强大的自律能力去拒绝那些不那么优质的投资诱惑，需要足够的耐心去等待真正优秀的机会，并且可以准确判断现在是不是最佳时机，该出手时就出手。

2: Being a Value Investor

二：价值投资者的特性

The disciplined pursuit of bargains makes value investing very much a risk-averse approach. The greatest challenge for value investors is maintaining the required discipline.

自律，直到找到划算的投资机会再出手，这使价值投资者们看起来很像风险厌恶者。自律对于他们来说是必需的，他们面临的最大挑战就是如何保持这份自律。

Being a value investor usually means standing apart from the crowd, challenging conventional wisdom, and opposing the prevailing investment winds. It can be a very lonely undertaking.

价值投资者意味着总是远离人群，挑战常规，甚至顶着盛行的投资风向逆行，这条路不可谓不孤独。

A value investor may experience poor, even horrendous, performance compared with that of other investors or the market as a whole during prolonged periods of market overvaluation. Yet over the long run the value approach works so successfully that few, if any, advocates of the philosophy ever abandon it.

在长期市场估值偏高的时间段里，价投者的表现有时和其他的投资者、或者整个市场比起来都会不尽如人意，甚至“可怕”。但长期来看，价值投资非常成功，所以你们会发现很少有价投者会放弃这种投资理念。

3: An Investor’s Worst Enemy

三：投资者的最大敌人

If investors could predict the future direction of the market, they would certainly notchoose to be value investors all the time. Indeed, when securities prices are steadily increasing, a value approach is usually a handicap; out of-favor securities tend to rise less than the public's favorites. When the market becomes fully valued on its way to being overvalued, value investors again farepoorly because they sell too soon.

如果有投资者可以成功预测市场未来的走向，他们肯定永远都不会去当价值投资者。诚然，当证券的价格稳步上升时，价投本身就是一个缺陷；不受欢迎的证券涨得没有公众喜欢的幅度大。另外，当被高估的市场被正确估值时，价投者也是讨不了巧的，因为他们很快就会需要卖掉手上的票。

The most beneficial time to be a value investor is when the market is falling. This is when downside risk matters and when investors who worried only about what could go right suffer the consequences of undue optimism. Value investors invest with a margin of safety that protects them from large losses in declining markets.

所以，当价投者的最佳时机是市场下行时。那些原先只关注上行因素的投资者们正在吞盲目乐观的苦果，这种时候，任何导致下行的风险因素都会被看得很重，而价投者因为用了一定的安全边际来投资，所以能够保护他们免受市场下行的巨大损失。

Those who can predict the future should participate fully, indeed on margin using borrowed money, when the market is about to rise and get out of the market before it declines. Unfortunately, many more investors claim the ability to foresee the market's direction than actually possess that ability. (I myself have not met a single one.)

能够预测市场未来的投资者应该全副投入，用借来的钱，在市场上行之时进入，再在它下跌之前出来。不幸的是，许多投资者虽然声称自己有这样的能力，但实际上并没有。（至少我个人是从来没见过一个。）

Those of us who know that we cannot accurately forecast security prices are well advised to consider value investing, a safe and successful strategy in all investment environments.

对于那些明白自己做不到预测市场的人，我非常推荐价值投资，这在所有的投资环境里都是一个安全又成功的策略。

4: It’s All about the Mindset

四：一切皆与思维模式有关

Investment success requires an appropriate mindset.

成功的投资需要建立起合适的思维模式。

Investing is serious business, not entertainment. If you participate in the financial markets at all, it is crucial to do so as an investor, not as a speculator, andto be certain that you understand the difference.

投资是严肃的，绝非儿戏。假如你参与到金融市场中来，很重要的一点就是你所有的动作都应该是以一个投资者的角度出发，而不是观察者，确定你明白这两者的区别。

Needless to say,investors are able to distinguish Pepsico from Picasso and understand the difference between an investment and a collectible.

无疑，投资者能说得出百事可乐和毕加索的区别：百事可乐是投资对象，而毕加索的作品则是收藏对象。

When your hard-earned savings and future financial security are at stake, the cost of not distinguishing is unacceptably high.

当你把辛辛苦苦存下来的钱和未来的金融证券放在有风险的地方时，不了解两者区别的代价会非常非常高。

5: Don’t Seek Mr. Market’s Advice

五：别找市场先生要建议

Some investors–really speculators–mistakenly look to Mr. Market for investment guidance.

有些投资者——其实是观察者会从市场先生那儿寻求投资建议——这是不对的。

They observe him setting a lower price for a security and, unmindful of his irrationality, rush to sell their holdings, ignoring their own assessment of underlying value. Other times they see him raising prices and, trusting hislead, buy in at the higher figure as if he knew more than they.

当他们发现市场先生给一个票定价偏低，就会忘记市场先生本身是不理性的事实，忘记自己曾经对这些票的真正价值做出的估算而疯狂卖掉自己手上持有的货。当他们看到市场先生给某个票提价时，又会因相信他无所不晓而跟着高价位买入。

The reality is that Mr. Market knows nothing, being the product of the collective action of thousands of buyers and sellers who themselves are not always motivated by investment fundamentals.

但事实是，市场先生什么都不懂，他诞生于成千上万投资者卖出买入的行为之中，而很多时候这些投资者的行为却并非出于投资原理。

Emotional investors and speculators inevitably lose money; investors who take advantage of Mr. Market's periodic irrationality, by contrast, have a good chance of enjoying long-term success.

冲动的投资者和观察者会无可避免地遭受损失；但深知市场先生间歇性无理取闹这种特性的投资者，则可以利用这一点，在长期的投资获得成功。

6: Stock Price Vs Business Reality

六：股价V.S.商业真相

Louis Lowenstein has warned us not to confuse the real success of an investment with its mirror of success in the stock market.

路易斯·洛温斯坦(Louis Lowenstein)已经警告过我们，不要把一个公司在商业上真正取得的成功和在股市上取得的成功搞混。

The fact that a stock price rises does not ensure that the underlying business is doing well or that the price increase is justified by a corresponding increasein underlying value. Likewise, a price fall in and of itself does not necessarily reflect adverse business developments or value deterioration.

一个公司的股价上涨不代表它发展状况良好，同样地，股价下跌也不代表一定是它公司业务发展不好或者价值下跌。

It is vitally important for investors to distinguish stock price fluctuations from underlying business reality. If the general tendency is for buying to beget more buying and selling to precipitate more selling, investors must fight the tendency to capitulate to market forces.

所以投资者一定要学会分辨股价波动和潜在商业真相。投资者们如果发现整体的趋势是大家都在盲目地跟风买入或卖出，那么他们一定要抵挡住这股趋势才行。

You cannot ignore the market–ignoring a source of investment opportunities would obviously be a mistake but you must think for yourself and not allow the market to direct you.

当然你不能无视市场，因为市场里蕴含着投资机会，忽视它等于犯错，但你一定要为自己着想，不要让市场牵着你的鼻子走。

7: Price Vs. Value

七：股价V.S.价值

Value in relation to price, not price alone, must determine your investment decisions.

价值与价格挂钩，但并不只取决于其价格，为此要多留意你的投资决策。

If you look to Mr. Market as a creator of investment opportunities (where price departs from underlying value), you have the makings of a value investor.

如果你将市场先生看作投资机会的创造者，会为你创造那些价格和公司价值不符的投资机会，那你就有了成为价值投资者的先决条件。

If you insist on looking to Mr. Market for investment guidance, however, you are probably best advised to hire someone else to manage your money.

但你如果减持把市场先生看作是你的投资顾问，那我建议你还是雇别人来为你打理钱财比较好。

Because security prices can change for any number of reasons and because it is impossible to know what expectations are reflected in any given price level,investors must look beyond security prices to underlying business value, always comparing the two as part of the investment process.

股票价格会因为各种原因而变动，你无法判断现在的股价反映了什么样的预期，所以投资者们必须要透过股价看企业本身的商业价值，在投资过程中不断比较这两者。

8: Emotions Play Havoc in Investing

八：情绪会扰乱投资

Unsuccessful investors are dominated by emotion. Rather than responding coolly and rationally to market fluctuations, they respond emotionally with greed and fear.

不成功的投资者都被情绪支配。他们不会冷静理智地面对市场波动，出于贪婪和恐惧，他们会很不理智。

We all know people who act responsibly and deliberately most of the time but go berserk when investing money. It may take them many months, even years, of hard work and disciplined saving to accumulate the money but only a few minutes to invest it.

想必我们都认识一些平时举止负责、从容不迫，但在投资时会进入“狂暴状态”的人。他们会把自己经过很多个月，甚至很多年的辛勤工作和自律存下来的钱在短短几分钟之内就投资掉。

The same people would read several consumer publications and visit numerous stores before purchasing a stereo or camera yet spend little or no time investigatingthe stock they just heard about from a friend.

这些人在买一个音响或者照相机之前会愿意读上好几本消费者指南，前往比较很多家店，但却不愿意花点儿时间去好好研究从他的一个朋友那儿听说的股票。

Rationality that is applied to the purchase of electronic or photographic equipment is absent when it comes to investing.

在购买电子摄像产品时的理性在投资股市的时候反而没有了。

9: Stock Market ≠ Quick Money

九：股市≠赚快钱的地方

Many unsuccessful investors regard the stock market as a way to make money without working rather than as a way to invest capital in order to earn a decent return.

许多不成功的投资者把股市当成一个无须努力就能赚快钱的地方，而不是一个投资资本以求更好收益的地方。

Anyone would enjoy a quick and easy profit, and the prospect of an effortless gain incites greed in investors. Greed leads many investors to seek shortcuts to investment success.

谁都想毫不费力地赚快钱，但是这种想法恰恰完美反映了投资者们的贪婪。贪婪促使他们去寻求投资成功的捷径。

Rather than allowing returns to compound over time, they attempt to turn quick profits by acting on hot tips. They do not stop to consider how the tipster could possibly be in possession of valuable information that is not illegally obtained or why, if it is so valuable, it is being made available to them.

他们并不打算让财富慢慢积累，而是想靠着一些“新鲜”的消息快速生财。他们也不会停下来想想，给他们消息的那些人是怎么能够不违法就获得这些消息的？为什么？如果真的如此有价值，为什么会对他们公开？

Greed also manifests itself as undue optimism or, more subtly, as complacency in the face of bad news.

贪婪同样表现为盲目乐观，更隐形一点的，则会表现为面对坏消息来临时懈怠。

Finally greed can cause investors to shift their focus away from the achievement of long-term investment goals in favor of short-term speculation.

最终，贪婪会使投资者们把他们的目标从“获得长期收益”变成“短期获利”。

10: Stock Market Cycles

十：股市的循环

All market fads come to an end. Security prices eventually become too high, supply catches up with and then exceeds demand, the top is reached, and the downward slide ensues.

市场上所有的流行趋势终会完结。股价最终会变得太高，供应最终会赶上需求，然后赶超需求，天花板就会来临，接下来就会下行。

There will always be cycles of investment fashion and just as surely investors who are susceptible to them.

投资热点总是有循环的，投资者们也一定会接受它们。

It is only fair to note that it is not easy to distinguish an investment fad froma real business trend. Indeed, many investment fads originate in real business trends, which deserve to be reflected in stock prices.

公正来说，要分辨一个趋势只是投资界的热点还是现实的商业潮流并不容易。实际上，许多投资热点就诞生于商业潮流，这种趋势是理应反映在股价上的。

The fad becomes dangerous, however, when share prices reach levels that are notsupported by the conservatively appraised values of the underlying businesses.

但是，当股价上升到一个超过它本身估值的水平时，这个潮流就会变得危险。

（未完待续，请继续关注格隆汇—精译求精团队）

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