TED | 疫情爆发能否像地震一样被预测？

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疫情爆发能否像地震一样被预测？

Daniel Streicker

英文字幕

00:13The story that I'm going to tell you today, for me, began back in 2006. That was when I first heard about an outbreak of mysterious illness that was happening in the Amazon rainforest of Peru. The people that were getting sick from this illness, they had horrifying symptoms, nightmarish. They had unbelievable headaches, they couldn't eat or drink. Some of them were even hallucinating -- confused and aggressive. The most tragic part of all was that many of the victims were children. And of all of those that got sick, none survived. It turned out that what was killing people was a virus, but it wasn't Ebola, it wasn't Zika, it wasn't even some new virus never before seen by science. These people were dying of an ancient killer, one that we've known about for centuries. They were dying of rabies. And what all of them had in common was that as they slept, they'd all been bitten by the only mammal that lives exclusively on a diet of blood: the vampire bat. 01:13These sorts of outbreaks that jump from bats into people, they've become more and more common in the last couple of decades. In 2003, it was SARS. It showed up in Chinese animal markets and spread globally. That virus, like the one from Peru, was eventually traced back to bats, which have probably harbored it, undetected, for centuries. Then, 10 years later, we see Ebola showing up in West Africa, and that surprised just about everybody because, according to the science at the time, Ebola wasn't really supposed to be in West Africa. That ended up causing the largest and most widespread Ebola outbreak in history. 01:50So there's a disturbing trend here, right? Deadly viruses are appearing in places where we can't really expect them, and as a global health community, we're caught on our heels. We're constantly chasing after the next viral emergency in this perpetual cycle, always trying to extinguish epidemics after they've already started. So with new diseases appearing every year, now is really the time that we need to start thinking about what we can do about it. If we just wait for the next Ebola to happen, we might not be so lucky next time. We might face a different virus, one that's more deadly, one that spreads better among people, or maybe one that just completely outwits our vaccines, leaving us defenseless. 02:32So can we anticipate pandemics? Can we stop them? Those are really hard questions to answer, and the reason is that the pandemics -- the ones that spread globally, the ones that we really want to anticipate -- they're actually really rare events. And for us as a species that is a good thing -- that's why we're all here. But from a scientific standpoint, it's a little bit of a problem. That's because if something happens just once or twice, that's really not enough to find any patterns. Patterns that could tell us when or where the next pandemic might strike. So what do we do? Well, I think one of the solutions we may have is to study some viruses that routinely jump from wild animals into people, or into our pets, or our livestock, even if they're not the same viruses that we think are going to cause pandemics. If we can use those everyday killer viruses to work out some of the patterns of what drives that initial, crucial jump from one species to the next, and, potentially, how we might stop it, then we're going to end up better prepared for those viruses that jump between species more rarely but pose a greater threat of pandemics. 03:45Now, rabies, as terrible as it is, turns out to be a pretty nice virus in this case. You see, rabies is a scary, deadly virus. It has 100 percent fatality. That means if you get infected with rabies and you don't get treated early, there's nothing that can be done. There is no cure. You will die. And rabies is not just a problem of the past either. Even today, rabies still kills 50 to 60,000 people every year. Just put that number in some perspective. Imagine the whole West African Ebola outbreak -- about two-and-a-half years; you condense all the people that died in that outbreak into just a single year. That's pretty bad. But then, you multiply it by four, and that's what happens with rabies every single year. 04:36So what sets rabies apart from a virus like Ebola is that when people get it, they tend not to spread it onward. That means that every single time a person gets rabies, it's because they were bitten by a rabid animal, and usually, that's a dog or a bat. But it also means that those jumps between species, which are so important to understand, but so rare for most viruses, for rabies, they're actually happening by the thousands. So in a way, rabies is almost like the fruit fly or the lab mouse of deadly viruses. This is a virus that we can use and study to find patterns and potentially test out new solutions. And so, when I first heard about that outbreak of rabies in the Peruvian Amazon, it struck me as something potentially powerful because this was a virus that was jumping from bats into other animals often enough that we might be able to anticipate it ... Maybe even stop it. 05:34So as a first-year graduate student with a vague memory of my high school Spanish class, I jumped onto a plane and flew off to Peru, looking for vampire bats. And the first couple of years of this project were really tough. I had no shortage of ambitious plans to rid Latin America of rabies, but at the same time, there seemed to be an equally endless supply of mudslides and flat tires, power outages, stomach bugs all stopping me. But that was kind of par for the course, working in South America, and to me, it was part of the adventure. But what kept me going was the knowledge that for the first time, the work that I was doing might actually have some real impact on people's lives in the short term. And that struck me the most when we actually went out to the Amazon and were trying to catch vampire bats. You see, all we had to do was show up at a village and ask around. "Who's been getting bitten by a bat lately?" And people raised their hands, because in these communities, getting bitten by a bat is an everyday occurrence, happens every day. And so all we had to do was go to the right house, open up a net and show up at night, and wait until the bats tried to fly in and feed on human blood. So to me, seeing a child with a bite wound on his head or blood stains on his sheets, that was more than enough motivation to get past whatever logistical or physical headache I happened to be feeling on that day. 07:03Since we were working all night long, though, I had plenty of time to think about how I might actually solve this problem, and it stood out to me that there were two burning questions. The first was that we know that people are bitten all the time, but rabies outbreaks aren't happening all the time -- every couple of years, maybe even every decade, you get a rabies outbreak. So if we could somehow anticipate when and where the next outbreak would be, that would be a real opportunity, meaning we could vaccinate people ahead of time, before anybody starts dying. But the other side of that coin is that vaccination is really just a Band-Aid. It's kind of a strategy of damage control. Of course it's lifesaving and important and we have to do it, but at the end of the day, no matter how many cows, how many people we vaccinate, we're still going to have exactly the same amount of rabies up there in the bats. The actual risk of getting bitten hasn't changed at all. So my second question was this: Could we somehow cut the virus off at its source? If we could somehow reduce the amount of rabies in the bats themselves, then that would be a real game changer. 08:05We'd been talking about shifting from a strategy of damage control to one based on prevention. So, how do we begin to do that? Well, the first thing we needed to understand was how this virus actually works in its natural host -- in the bats. And that is a tall order for any infectious disease, particularly one in a reclusive species like bats, but we had to start somewhere. So the way we started was looking at some historical data. When and where had these outbreaks happened in the past? And it became clear that rabies was a virus that just had to be on the move. It couldn't sit still. The virus might circulate in one area for a year, maybe two, but unless it found a new group of bats to infect somewhere else, it was pretty much bound to go extinct. So with that, we solved one key part of the rabies transmission challenge. We knew we were dealing with a virus on the move, but we still couldn't say where it was going. 09:02Essentially, what I wanted was more of a Google Maps-style prediction, which is, "What's the destination of the virus? What's the route it's going to take to get there? How fast will it move?" To do that, I turned to the genomes of rabies. You see, rabies, like many other viruses, has a tiny little genome, but one that evolves really, really quickly. So quickly that by the time the virus has moved from one point to the next, it's going to have picked up a couple of new mutations. And so all we have to do is kind of connect the dots across an evolutionary tree, and that's going to tell us where the virus has been in the past and how it spread across the landscape. So, I went out and I collected cow brains, because that's where you get rabies viruses. And from genome sequences that we got from the viruses in those cow brains, I was able to work out that this is a virus that spreads between 10 and 20 miles each year. 09:57OK, so that means we do now have the speed limit of the virus, but still missing that other key part of where is it going in the first place. For that, I needed to think a little bit more like a bat, because rabies is a virus -- it doesn't move by itself, it has to be moved around by its bat host, so I needed to think about how far to fly and how often to fly. My imagination didn't get me all that far with this and neither did little digital trackers that we first tried putting on bats. We just couldn't get the information we needed. So instead, we turned to the mating patterns of bats. We could look at certain parts of the bat genome, and they were telling us that some groups of bats were mating with each other and others were more isolated. And the virus was basically following the trail laid out by the bat genomes. Yet one of those trails stood out as being a little bit surprising -- hard to believe. That was one that seemed to cross straight over the Peruvian Andes, crossing from the Amazon to the Pacific coast, and that was kind of hard to believe, as I said, because the Andes are really tall -- about 22,000 feet, and that's way too high for a vampire to fly. Yet -- 11:11when we looked more closely, we saw, in the northern part of Peru, a network of valley systems that was not quite too tall for the bats on either side to be mating with each other. And we looked a little bit more closely -- sure enough, there's rabies spreading through those valleys, just about 10 miles each year. Basically, exactly as our evolutionary models had predicated it would be. 11:31What I didn't tell you is that that's actually kind of an important thing because rabies had never been seen before on the western slopes of the Andes, or on the whole Pacific coast of South America, so we were actually witnessing, in real time, a historical first invasion into a pretty big part of South America, which raises the key question: "What are we going to do about that?" 11:52Well, the obvious short-term thing we can do is tell people: you need to vaccinate yourselves, vaccinate your animals; rabies is coming. But in the longer term, it would be even more powerful if we could use that new information to stop the virus from arriving altogether. Of course, we can't just tell bats, "Don't fly today," but maybe we could stop the virus from hitching a ride along with the bat. 12:17And that brings us to the key lesson that we have learned from rabies-management programs all around the world, whether it's dogs, foxes, skunks, raccoons, North America, Africa, Europe. It's that vaccinating the animal source is the only thing that stops rabies. 12:34So, can we vaccinate bats? You hear about vaccinating dogs and cats all the time, but you don't hear too much about vaccinating bats. It might sound like a crazy question, but the good news is that we actually already have edible rabies vaccines that are specially designed for bats. And what's even better is that these vaccines can actually spread from bat to bat. All you have to do is smear it on one and let the bats' habit of grooming each other take care of the rest of the work for you. So that means, at the very least, we don't have to be out there vaccinating millions of bats one by one with tiny little syringes. 13:16But just because we have that tool doesn't mean we know how to use it. Now we have a whole laundry list of questions. How many bats do we need to vaccinate? What time of the year do we need to be vaccinating? How many times a year do we need to be vaccinating? All of these are questions that are really fundamental to rolling out any sort of vaccination campaign, but they're questions that we can't answer in the laboratory. So instead, we're taking a slightly more colorful approach. We're using real wild bats, but fake vaccines. We use edible gels that make bat hair glow and UV powders that spread between bats when they bump into each other, and that's letting us study how well a real vaccine might spread in these wild colonies of bats. We're still in the earliest phases of this work, but our results so far are incredibly encouraging. They're suggesting that using the vaccines that we already have, we could potentially drastically reduce the size of rabies outbreaks. And that matters, because as you remember, rabies is a virus that always has to be on the move, and so every time we reduce the size of an outbreak, we're also reducing the chance that the virus makes it onto the next colony. We're breaking a link in the chain of transmission. And so every time we do that, we're bringing the virus one step closer to extinction. And so the thought, for me, of a world in the not-too-distant future where we're actually talking about getting rid of rabies altogether, that is incredibly encouraging and exciting. 14:42So let me return to the original question. Can we prevent pandemics? Well, there is no silver-bullet solution to this problem, but my experiences with rabies have left me pretty optimistic about it. I think we're not too far from a future where we're going to have genomics to forecast outbreaks and we're going to have clever new technologies, like edible, self-spreading vaccines, that can get rid of these viruses at their source before they have a chance to jump into people. 15:11So when it comes to fighting pandemics, the holy grail is just to get one step ahead. And if you ask me, I think one of the ways that we can do that is using some of the problems that we already have now, like rabies -- sort of the way an astronaut might use a flight simulator, figuring out what works and what doesn't, and building up our tool set so that when the stakes are high, we're not flying blind. 15:33Thank you.

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00:13

今天我要讲的故事对于我来说，始于2006年。那是我第一次听到秘鲁亚马逊雨林正在上演一场神秘疾病的大爆发。因为这个疾病，人们开始感到不适。他们出现了噩梦般的可怕症状；经历着难以忍受的的头痛，难以喝水进食。他们有的甚至产生了幻觉——变得困惑与激进。最让人心碎的是，大部分的病患是儿童。而且所有这些病患，无人幸存。最后事实证明是一种病毒杀害了那些人，但不是埃博拉，也不是寨卡，它甚至不是科学家前所未闻的新病毒。这些病患的离去是由一种古老的杀手造成的，一种在几百年前就知晓的的病毒。病患们死于狂犬病。他们的一个共同点是，在睡觉时，都被一种仅以嗜血为生的哺乳动物给咬了：吸血蝠。

01:13

这类疾病的大爆发从蝙蝠转移到了人，在过去几十年中已经变得越发普遍。在2003年，是非典。它首现于中国动物市场，并肆虐全球。那病毒，就像是秘鲁的那个一样，最终被追溯到蝙蝠，它们可能已经藏匿该病毒长达几百年，却从未被发现。10年后，我们看到埃博拉出现在西非，这震惊了所有人，因为根据当时的科学表明，埃博拉不应该出现在西非。但它却导致了史上传播最广，规模最大的埃博拉病毒爆发。

01:50

这是一个令人不安的趋势，对吧？致命的病毒正出现于我们无法真正预期的地方。而作为全球健康社区，我们一直在忙于应对。我们一直在追逐下一个病毒带来的紧急情况，总是在疫情已经开始蔓延后，努力消灭它们。随着每年新疾病的出现，现在，真的是需要开始思考我们能为之做什么的时候了。如果我们仅仅等着下一个埃博拉的出现，那时，我们可能就不会这么幸运了。我们可能面对着一个不同的病毒，一个更加致命的病毒，一个人类间传播能力更强的病毒，或可能是效力完全胜于疫苗，让我们束手无策的病毒。

02:32

那么我们可以预测疾病大流行吗？我们能够阻止它们吗？这些是非常难以回答的问题，而其中的原因是大流行——那些传播于全球的流行病，那些我们非常想要去预测的流行病——它们实际上是罕见事件。对于我们，作为一个物种，是一件好事——这就是为何我们都在这里。但从科学角度来看，这是有一些问题的。因为一件事如果只发生一两次，那就真的不足以发现任何规律，可以告诉我们何时或何地下一场流行病毒可能发生的规律。那么我们该怎么做？我认为其中一个解决方案就是，我们可能可以研究一些常规性从野生动物传播到人身上的病毒，或到我们宠物、牲畜的病毒，即使它们和我们认为造成大流行的病毒不同，如果我们可以利用那些日常杀手病毒来找到一些规律，例如是什么驱动了最初的病毒的物种间转移，以及，我们可能如何阻止转移的发生，这样为应对未来更小概率的物种间转移，但对大流行造成更大威胁的病毒，我们将做出更加充分的准备。

03:45

然而如此可怕的狂犬病毒，事实证明已经是比较“友善”的了。大家都知道，狂犬病毒多么令人闻声色变，它是致命的，且具有百分百的死亡率。这意味着如果你被它感染，而且没尽早接受治疗，那你就会走投无路。无药可治，你必死无疑。此外，狂犬病毒不仅是一个历史问题。甚至在今天，该病毒每年仍能杀死5-6万人。换个角度看看这个数字。想象整个西非的埃博拉疫情爆发——持续了大约2年至2年半，把所有在疫情爆发中死亡的人数压缩到一年。这听起来蛮糟糕的。但你再把这数字乘以4，就是每一年狂犬病疫情的情况。

04:36

让狂犬病毒有别于埃博拉病毒的是，当人们被病毒感染时，往往不会继续传播给其他人。这意味着每次当一个人接触到狂犬病病毒，都是因为他们被携带狂犬病的动物咬了，通常是狗或蝙蝠。但这也意味着我们对于那些物种间传播的病毒的理解认知是如此重要，但对大部分病毒来说却又如此罕见。然而对狂犬病毒来说，物种间传播是非常频繁的。所以从某种程度上，狂犬病毒就好比果蝇，或是携带致命病毒的实验室老鼠。这是一种我们可以用来研究以找寻规律的病毒，有可能帮助我们找到新的解决方案。所以，当我第一次听到秘鲁亚马逊的狂犬病大爆发，我惊讶于这潜在的、如此强大的威力，因为这是个能够从蝙蝠转移到其它动物身上的病毒，通常我们可能足以预见它……甚至可能阻止它。

05:34

因此，作为一个研一学生，带着自己模糊的高中西语课记忆，我跳上了飞机，飞往秘鲁，寻找吸血蝠。这个项目的最初几年真的很艰难。我不乏消灭拉丁美洲狂犬病毒的雄心壮志，但与此同时，我还不断遇到无止尽的泥石流和爆胎，停电以及胃病，都在阻碍我的进程。但这在南美洲都是意料之中的，与我而言，也是探险的一部分。让我坚持下去的是第一次知道自己手头的工作也许确实能在短期对人们的生活产生实际影响。令我最震惊的是，我们真正步入亚马逊并亲自尝试着抓捕吸血蝠。我们要做的就是去往村庄，四处询问。“谁最近被蝙蝠咬了？”之后人们举起他们的手，因为在这个社区，被蝙蝠咬是家常便饭，每天都在发生。所以我们要做的是去正确的家庭，布网，夜间拜访，并等待蝙蝠前来准备吸人血。对我而言，看着一个孩子头被咬伤，或他床单上的血迹，就是能让我忘却任何路途困难与身体不适的动力，继续工作。那天碰巧是这样。

07:03

尽管我们经常整夜都在工作，我仍然会抽时间思考要如何解决这个问题，然而在我看来，尚有两个亟待解决的问题。第一个是我们知道人们总是被咬，但是狂犬病并非总是爆发——每隔几年，甚至可能每隔十年，爆发一次。因此，如果我们能够预测下一次爆发的时间地点，那将会是一个极佳的机会，意味着我们可以在任何人受到疫情折磨前，给大家注射疫苗。但是同时，疫苗是否只能充当一张创可贴，作为一种控制伤害的策略。当然，这能挽救生命，也很重要，我们要做这件事，但归根结底，不论我们给多少头牛、多少个人接种疫苗，蝙蝠身上始终将携带同样数量的狂犬病毒。被蝙蝠咬伤的实际风险并没有任何改变。所以，我的第二个问题就是：我们能否从源头消灭这些病毒？如果我们多少能降低蝙蝠自身携带狂犬病毒的数量，这将会真正逆转现状。

08:05

我们一直在说要从伤害控制转变成预防的策略。那么，我们如何开始做这件事？第一件我们需要了解这个病毒是如何在它的天然宿主——即蝙蝠体内生存的。这对于任何传染病来说都是一项艰巨的任务，尤其是对于蝙蝠这样的隐居物种，但我们必须找到入手点。于是我们最先查看了一些历史数据：这些大爆发曾经发生在何时何地？我们也逐渐明确了狂犬病毒必须要不断转移宿主，它们无法保持不动。病毒可能在一个地区传播一年，或两年，除非它能找到新蝙蝠群，传播到别的地方，否则就会自然灭绝。根据这点，我们解决了一个狂犬病毒传播挑战的关键部分。我们知道我们在与不断转移的病毒打交道，但我们仍旧不知道它会传播到哪里去。

09:02

我想要一个类似谷歌地图的预测图，能告诉我“病毒的目的地在哪里？它们去目的地的路径是什么？速度有多快？”于是我转去研究狂犬病毒基因组。狂犬病毒和许多其他病毒一样，有一个很小的基因组，但是它进化得非常非常快。快到在病毒从一个地点转移到另一个的时候，它就会经历几次新突变。因此，我们要做的就是连结那些进化树上的点，这会告诉我们这个病毒曾经去过哪里，又是如何传播的。所以我出门收集了牛脑，因为这是你能找到狂犬病毒的地方。从牛脑病毒中获取的基因序列中，我发现这是一个每年能够传播10-20英里的病毒。

09:57

所以这说明我们现在有了病毒的传播限速，但依旧缺失其他关键部分，例如它们首先向什么地方传播。要解决这个问题，我需要用蝙蝠的思维来思考，因为狂犬病毒是一个病毒——不依靠自身传播，必须围绕在蝙蝠宿主身边，所以我需要思考这个病毒传播的距离和频率。我的想象力不够回答这些问题，我们第一次尝试安装在蝙蝠上的小型数字追踪器也没有答案。我们就是无法获取所需信息。于是，我们转向蝙蝠交配模式的研究。我们观察蝙蝠基因组的特定片段，知道了有些蝙蝠群会相互交配，但是有的比较孤立。狂犬病毒基本上遵循了蝙蝠基因组的踪迹。但其中的一个踪迹与众不同，令人惊讶且难以置信。那个踪迹似乎径直跨越了秘鲁安第斯山脉，从亚马逊穿越到太平洋海岸，这就是我说的难以置信，因为安第斯山脉海拔很高——大约6700米，是吸血蝠几乎不可能飞越的高度。但是——

11:10

当我们仔细观察后，我们看到对于河岸两边想要互相交配的蝙蝠来说，秘鲁北部的一系列峡谷流域海拔还不算太高。我们又观察得更加仔细了一点——没错，所有那些流域都有狂犬病毒的传播，每年10英里。基本上正如我们的进化模型预测的那样。

11:31

我没有告诉你们的是这件事的重要性，因为狂犬病从未在安第斯山脉的西坡出现，或是整个南非的太平洋海岸，所以我们实际上在亲眼目睹一场实时的，历史首现的入侵，对相当大面积南美洲的入侵。这就引出了一个关键问题：“我们应该做什么来应对入侵？”

11:52

我们在短期明确可以做的就是告诉大家：你需要给自己接种疫苗，以及你的宠物也是，狂犬病毒马上要传播到这里了。但是长远来说，如果能够利用新的研究成果来阻止病毒入侵，这会使我们变得更加强大。当然，我们不能和蝙蝠说：“今天不要飞。”但我们或许可以阻止病毒在蝙蝠身上的搭便车行为。

12:17

我们从全球狂犬病毒管理项目中所学到的最重要的一堂课，就是不论狗、狐狸、臭鼬还是浣熊，在北美，非洲还是欧洲，动物源的疫苗接种都是唯一能够消除狂犬病毒的方法。

12:34

那么，我们能给蝙蝠接种疫苗吗？你们都听说过给猫狗接种疫苗，但是肯定没怎么听过给蝙蝠接种疫苗。这问题可能听起来有点疯狂，但有一个好消息，我们已经有专门为蝙蝠设计的可食用狂犬病疫苗。更妙的是，这些疫苗可以阻止病毒在蝙蝠间传播。你所要做的就是将疫苗涂抹在一只蝙蝠上，之后让它们相互梳理绒毛的习惯帮助你完成剩下的工作。所以这意味着，至少我们不需要用小小的注射器去外面把上百万只蝙蝠一只只抓来接种疫苗。

13:16

但工具的存在并不代表我们知道如何使用它。现在我们有一箩筐的问题。我们需要给多少蝙蝠接种疫苗？一年中的什么时候，我们需要开始接种？一年总共需要接种几次？所有的这些问题都是开展任何预防接种运动最基本的问题，但这些恰恰是我们在实验室中无法解答的问题。于是，我们正在尝试一个稍许更加有趣的方法。使用真正的野生蝙蝠，但接种的是假疫苗。我们用可食用凝胶使蝙蝠毛发发光，以及蝙蝠在彼此碰撞时能得以传播的紫外光粉末，这使我们能够研究真正的疫苗在这些野生蝙蝠群体中的潜在的传播有效性。我们依旧处于这个项目的初期阶段，可至今我们的成果非常鼓舞人心。结果表明，使用我们已经拥有的疫苗，很有可能可以极大地缩减狂犬病爆发的规模。这很重要，因为就如刚才所说，狂犬病毒是一种经常需要变换宿主的病毒，所以我们每一次对爆发规模的削弱，都在降低病毒入侵下一个种群的可能性，都在打破传播链的一个环节。因此每一次，我们都让该病毒距离灭亡更进一步。不远的将来，世界将会永远免于任何狂犬病毒侵扰的想法，对我来说是极其鼓舞人心且令人激动的。

14:42

那么让我回到最初的问题。我们能够预防疾病大流行吗？这个问题没有彻底且完美的解决方案，但是我对于狂犬病毒的经验让我对这个问题持乐观态度。我认为我们离那个未来不是太远，一个利用基因组学预测疫情爆发和拥有智能新技术的未来，例如可食用，可自行传播的疫苗，能够在这些病毒有机会传播到人类前从根源消灭它们的疫苗。

15:11

所以当说到对抗疾病大流行，我们离胜利也就一步之遥。如果你问我，我认为其中一个能实现这一目标的方法就是，利用一些现在我们已经知道的问题，比如狂犬病毒——好比宇航员会用飞行模拟器，来摸索什么能起作用，而什么不行，并且构建我们自己的工具集，这样当我们面临危难时，我们不会盲目飞行。

15:33

谢谢。

张文宏

| 简介

2020年1月18日CC讲坛最新录制的上海医疗专家组组长张文宏老师的演讲。

张文宏，复旦大学附属华山医院感染科主任，上海市医疗救治专家组组长。

SARS死亡率是10%，流感肺炎的死亡率9%，流感是“流行性感冒”的简称。

很多人会疑惑，既然都是“感冒”，怎么流感一来就肆虐，甚至还能成为致命威胁，使部分患者付出生命代价？

张文宏医生说：流感不是感冒！就像老虎从来不是猫！

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