彼得·蒂尔最新毕业致辞演讲：认知未来是我的谋生之道

Peter Thiel(彼得·蒂尔)，是美国企业家与风险资本家，对冲基金管理者，PayPal的共同创建者之一，也是Palantir的共同创建者和对冲基金Clarium Capital的总裁，以及畅销书《Zero to One》的作者。彼得·蒂尔于5月22日在美国汉密尔顿学院做毕业致辞演讲。

英文演讲独家翻译：笔记侠 钟子涵  深度好文：5135字 | 6分钟阅读完整版翻译首

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能在这里演讲，我感到无比光荣！

我貌似和大多数毕业典礼上的演讲嘉宾一样，是为数不多的、比你们父母和教授更不清楚你们的生活过得怎样的人。

你们大多数的年纪都在二十一二岁左右，就要开始工作了。我已经有21年没有为别人打工了。如果一定要讲出一个为什么我今天可以站在这里讲话的理由，我想说，因为认知未来是我的谋生之道。这是一次毕业典礼，同时这也是一次新的开始。作为一名科技领域的投资人，我的工作就是投资于新的开始。我对于那些人们从未见过或做到的事情抱有信心。

其实当年职业生涯刚开始的时候，我并不是这样做的。回想1989年，那时候我和你们一样，是个毕业生。我希望自己会成为一名律师。我并不确切地知道律师整天都要干些什么，但是我知道，他们首先要去法学院读书，而我很擅长读书。

从初中、高中再到大学，我的成绩一直都很优秀。我知道，直升法学院后，我还会面对那些从小参加到大的考试，而那些考试是为了让我成为一名成熟的职业人士。

我在法学院表现得也足够出色，毕业后我被纽约的一家大型律师事务所录取。但是这给我的感觉像是一个奇怪的围城：外面的人挤破头地想进去，里面的人拼命地想出来。

只干了七个月零三天，我就离开了那家事务所，我的同事们都感到十分诧异。其中一名同事告诉我，他从没想过可以逃出“恶魔岛”的可能。这话可能听起来有些奇怪，因为你若想逃跑，只需要走出大门不要回头就可以了。不过很多人的确发现那是一个难舍难离的地方，因为当他们碾压对手进入了那家公司以后，他们的身份认同首先就与它绑在了一起。

就在我打算离开那家律师事务所的时候，我得到了一次美国最高法院书记员一职的面试机会。作为一名律师，这差不多算是中了头等奖了，它绝对是竞争的最高舞台。然而我失败了，当时我感到彻头彻尾的沮丧，就像是世界崩塌。

10年后，我遇到了一位老朋友，他曾经帮我准备过最高法院的面试，我已经很多年没见过他了。他见我的第一句话并不是“你好彼得”或是“最近过得怎样”之类的寒暄，而是问我：“你有没有庆幸没得到那个书记员的职位？”

因为如果我不是在那次竞争中失利了，就不可能偏离从中学便开始计划好的轨道，也不会搬到加州与人一起创办了一家初创公司，更不会开创任何新的事业。

回想当年想成为律师的决心，与其说它是我对未来的计划，不如说是为当下而找的托辞。这样，如果任何人问起我未来的打算，比如我的父母、同学，最主要还是我自己，我会这样回答：我的未来不必担心，我在未来路上做得很好。然而回想起来，我当时最大的问题就是，我走上既定轨道的时候，并没有真正地认真思考过这条路未来通向哪里。

当我与人共同创办了一家科技初创公司时，我们采取了一种截然相反的方法，我们有意地改变着整个世界的前进方向。我们的计划非常明确，非常远大，目标就是要建立一种新的数字货币，并且用它来取代美元。

当时我们的团队非常年轻。刚开始创业的时候，我是团队里唯一一个年龄超过23岁的人。我们发布第一款产品时，第一批用户仅仅是在我们公司工作的这24名员工。而跳出我们这24个人的范围，在全球金融界工作的人数高达百万。当我们把自己的计划告诉其中一些人时，我们注意到一个明显的特征：一个人在银行从业的经验越丰富，他就越确信我们的业务绝不会成功。

他们错了。如今，全球每年通过PayPal完成的交易超过2000亿美元。我们的确没能实现那个更大的目标——美元仍然是当今世界的主导货币。

我们没能成功地用数字货币征服全世界，但在这个过程中，我们的确建立了一家成功的公司。更重要的是，我们终于明白，虽然创新充满了各种困难，但它并非绝无可能。

在人生的现阶段，你们面临的限制、禁忌和恐惧是人生中最少的阶段。所以不要浪费你们的无知无畏，要勇敢地走出去，做你们的老师和父母认为不可能做到的事，和他们从没想过的事。

这并不是说，我们就该认为教育和传统是没有价值的。我们可以从汉密尔顿学院的校友艾兹拉•庞德的身上得到启发。他是1905届的学生，是一位诗人，也是一位预言家，他称自己的使命只是：推陈出新，革故鼎新。当庞德追求“新”时，他其实是在与旧事物作比较，他想让传统中的精华焕发出新的活力。

 汉密尔顿学院

在汉密尔顿学院，在所谓的整个西方世界，我们都身处一种不寻常的传统之中。我们所继承的这种传统，就是创新的传统，是弗朗西斯•培根的新科学理论，是伊萨克•牛顿发现的那些之前从未被写进书里的真理。我们的整个大陆都是一个新世界。这个国家的开国功臣们，创立了他们理想的时代新秩序。美国是一个前沿国家。如果我们不去革故、放弃鼎新，就是不忠于自己的传统。

那么，我们的进展如何呢？

今日又有多“新”？很多人总说，我们正处于一个事物快速更迭的时代，但众所周知，这种陈词滥调目前正到达一个拐点：创新已经日趋停滞。如今，计算机的运行速度变得更快，智能手机也是一种比较新的东西了。而另一方面，飞机的速度变慢了，火车故障频发，房价难以企及，居民收入止步不前。

今天，“科技”一词已经成了信息技术的代名词。所谓的“科技行业”主要造的就是电脑和软件。但在上世纪60年代，“科技”的外延更加广泛，并非只意味着计算机，还意味着飞机、机械、化肥、材料、太空旅行等各种各样的事物。各个方面的技术都有进步：有望建造水下城市，在月球度假，拥有廉价的能源。

我们都听说过，美国是所谓的发达国家，和发展中国家是不同的。这种描述看似中肯，但我发现它根本不是这样的。因为它暗示着我们创造新事物的优良传统已经成为历史了。当我们说我们是发达国家时，我们的意思其实是：“己经很好了。”好像对我们来说，历史已经结束了，每一件要做的事都做完了，唯一要做的事就是等世界上的其它国家赶超。从这个角度来看，上世纪60年代人们对未来的瑰丽畅想和远大目标就都是一个错误。

我认为，我们要远离那种以为我们的历史已经结束的蛊惑。当然，如果我们认为，我们没有能力做成任何我们不熟悉的事，仅从自我满足和应验的角度讲，这个说法也没错。然而如果国家不再繁荣，我们也不应怨天尤人，这只是我们咎由自取、自作自受。

大家所熟悉的路径和传统就像陈辞滥调一样——它们铺天盖地。有的时候它们可能是正确的，然而更多的时候，其存在的意义除了被反复陈述以外，再无其它。在今天演讲的最后，请允许我对两句陈辞滥调提出质疑。

第一句是莎士比亚的名言：“忠于你自己。”

莎士比亚

这句话出自莎翁笔下，却不是他亲自说的，而是借其笔下的人物波洛尼厄斯之口说出来的。虽然波洛尼厄斯是丹麦国王的高级顾问，但哈姆雷特仍然准确地将其描述为一个无聊的老傻瓜。

所以说，在现实中，莎翁教给了我们两件事。首先，不要忠于你自己。你怎么知道你还有“自我”这么个东西呢？你的“自我”可能是在与其他人的竞争中被激发起来的，就像曾经的我一样。所以说你需要约束你的自我，去培养它、呵护它，而不是盲从于它。其次，莎翁意指，你应该对别人的意见保持怀疑态度，哪怕这些意见来自长辈们。

在《哈姆雷特》中，波洛尼厄斯可谓对女儿循循善诱，但他的意见却十分糟糕。在西方传统中，人们不是盲目地珍视继承得来的东西——莎翁此作就是诠释这一传统的极佳例子。

另一句是说滥了的老话：“把每天都当成人生的最后一天来活。”

反其道而行之是这句话最好的理解方式，即把每天都当成你会永生一样活。这首先意味着：对身边的人，要像他们永远不会离去一样对待他们。你在今天做出的选择是很重要的，因为它们产生的影响会越来越大。

这就是为什么爱因斯坦说：“复利是宇宙间最强大的力量。”这里的复利并非指金融或金钱，而是指如果你投入时间用于建立可靠和长久的友谊，你就将得到最大的收获。

从某种意义上说，你们之所以今天会坐在这里，是因为你们曾被汉密尔顿学院录取，并在这里学习某专业课程，而现在你们毕业了。

从另一层意义来说，你们今天之所以坐在这里，是因为你们找到了一群能志同道合且会相互扶持的朋友，而且这种友谊还会延续。如果你能好好培养你们的友谊，它也会在未来的岁月里给你带来“复利”。

迄今为止，你们所做的每一件事，都已有了某种正式的结局，就如同你们今天的毕业。同时我也希望，你们今天能尽情享受你们已经取得的成就。

但你们要记住，今天的毕业典礼并不是另一件将会完结的事情的开始，而是一段永恒之路的新起点。我就不再耽搁你们踏上这段旅程了。谢谢！

  以下是完整英文版：

Thank you so much for the kindintroduction. It’s a tremendous honor to be here.

Like most graduation speakersmy main qualification would seem to be that I am one of the few people who areeven more clueless about what is going on in your lives than your parents andyour professors.

Most of you are about 21 or 22years old, you’re about to begin working. I haven’t worked for anybody for 21years. But if I try to give a reason for why it makes sense for me to speakhere today I would say it’s because thinking about the future is what I do fora living. And this is a commencement. It’s a new beginning. As a technologyinvestor, I invest in new beginnings. I believe in what hasn’t yet been seen orbeen done.

This is not what I set out todo when I began my career. When I was sitting where you are, back in 1989, Iwould’ve told you that I wanted to be a lawyer. I didn’t really know whatlawyers do all day, but I knew they first had to go to law school, and schoolwas familiar to me.

I had been competitivelytracked from middle school to high school to college, and by going straight tolaw school I knew I would be competing at the same kinds of tests I’d beentaking ever since I was a kid, but I could tell everyone that I was now doingit for the sake of becoming a professional adult.

I did well enough in lawschool to be hired by a big New York law firm, but it turned out to be a verystrange place. From the outside, everybody wanted to get in; and from theinside, everybody wanted to get out.

When I left the firm, afterseven months and three days, my coworkers were surprised. One of them told methat he hadn’t known it was possible to escape from Alcatraz. Now that mightsound odd, because all you had to do to escape was walk through the front doorand not come back. But people really did find it very hard to leave, because somuch of their identity was wrapped up in having won the competitions to getthere in the first place.

Just as I was leaving the lawfirm, I got an interview for a Supreme Court clerkship. This is sort of the topprize you can get as a lawyer. It was the absolute last stage of thecompetition. But I lost. At the time I was totally devastated. It seemed justlike the end of the world.

About a decade later, I raninto an old friend. Someone who had helped me prepare for the Supreme Courtinterview, whom I hadn’t seen in years. His first words to me were not, youknow, “Hi Peter” or “How are you doing?” But rather, “So, aren’t you glad youdidn’t get that clerkship?” Because if I hadn’t lost that last competition, weboth knew that I never would have left the track laid down since middle school,I wouldn’t have moved to California and co-founded a startup, I wouldn’t havedone anything new.

Looking back at my ambition tobecome a lawyer, it looks less like a plan for the future and more like analibi for the present. It was a way to explain to anyone who would ask—to myparents, to my peers, and most of all to myself—that there was no need toworry. I was perfectly on track. But it turned out in retrospect that mybiggest problem was taking the track without thinking really hard about whereit was going.

When I co-founded a technologystartup, we took the opposite approach. We consciously set out to change thedirection of the world. Very definite, very big plans. Our goal was nothingless than to replace the U.S. dollar by creating a new digital currency.

We had a young team. When westarted, I was the only person over 23 years old. When we released our firstproduct, the first users were simply the 24 people who worked at our company.Outside there were millions of people working in the global financial industry,and when we told some of them about our plans we noticed a clear pattern: themore experience someone had in banking, the more certain they were that ourventure could never succeed.

They were wrong. People aroundthe world now rely on PayPal to move more than $200 billion every year. We didfail at our greater goal. The dollar’s still dominant. We didn’t succeed intaking over the whole world, but we did create a successful company in theprocess. And more importantly we learned that, while doing new things isdifficult, it is far from impossible.

At this moment in your lifeyou know fewer limits, fewer taboos, and fewer fears than you will ever in thefuture. So do not squander your ignorance. Go out and do what your teachers andparents thought could not be done, and what they never thought of doing.

Now this is not to say that weshould assume there is no value in teaching and tradition. And here we can takeinspiration from a graduate of Hamilton College, the illustrious Ezra Pound,class of 1905. Pound was a poet, and he was also a prophet of sorts, and heannounced his mission in three words: “Make it new.” When Pound said “make itnew,” he was talking about the old. He wanted to recover what was best intradition, and render it fresh.

Here at Hamilton, in America,and that part of the world called the West, we are all part of an unusual kindof tradition. The tradition we’ve inherited is itself about doing new things.The new science of Francis Bacon and Isaac Newton discovered truths that hadnever been written down in books. Our whole continent is a new world. Thefounders of this country set out to create what they called a new order for theages. America is the frontier country. We are not true to our own traditionunless we seek what is new.

So how are we doing? How muchis new today? It is a cliché to say that we are living through a time of rapidchange, but it is an open secret that the truth is closer to stagnation.Computers are getting faster and smartphones are somewhat new. But on the otherhand, jets are slower, trains are breaking down, houses are expensive, andincomes are flat.

Today the word “technology”means information technology. The so-called tech industry builds computers andsoftware. But in the 1960s, “technology” had a more expansive meaning and meantnot just computers, but also airplanes, medicines, fertilizers, materials,space travel—all sorts of things. Technology was advancing on every front andleading to a world of underwater cities, vacations on the moon, and energy toocheap to meter.

We’ve all heard Americadescribed as a developed country, setting it apart from countries that arestill developing. This description pretends to be neutral. But I find it farfrom neutral. Because it suggests that our tradition of making new things isover. When we say we are developed, we’re saying, “That’s it.” That for us,history is over. We are saying that everything there is to do has already beendone, and now the only thing left is for others in the world to catch up. Andin this view, the 1960s vision of a fantastic and far better future was just amistake.

I think we should stronglyrefuse this temptation to assume that our history is over. Of course if wechoose to believe that we’re powerless to do anything that is not familiar, wewill be right, but only in a sort of self-fulfilling way. We should not,however, blame nature. It will only be our own fault.

Familiar tracks and traditionsare like clichés—they are everywhere, they may sometimes be correct, but oftenthey are justified by nothing except constant repetition. Let me end today byquestioning two clichés in particular.

The first comes fromShakespeare who wrote this well-known piece of advice: “To thine own self betrue.” Now Shakespeare wrote that, but he didn’t say it. He put it in the mouthof a character named Polonius, who Hamlet accurately describes as a tedious oldfool, even though Polonius was senior counselor to the King of Denmark.

And so, in reality,Shakespeare is telling us two things. First, do not be true to yourself. How doyou know you even have such a thing as a self? Your self might be motivated bycompetition with others, like I was. You need to discipline your self, tocultivate it and care for it. Not to follow it blindly. Second, Shakespeare’ssaying that you should be skeptical of advice, even from your elders. Poloniusis a father speaking to his daughter, but his advice is terrible. HereShakespeare’s a faithful example of our western tradition, which does not honorwhat is merely inherited.

The other cliché goes likethis: “Live each day as if it were your last.” The best way to take this asadvice is to do exactly the opposite. Live each day as if you will liveforever. That means, first and foremost, that you should treat the peoplearound you as if they too will be around for a very long time to come. Thechoices that you make today matter, because their consequences will growgreater and greater.

That is what Einstein wasgetting at when he supposedly said that compound interest is the most powerfulforce in the universe. This isn’t just about finance or money, but it’s aboutthe idea that you’ll get the best returns in life from investing your time inbuilding durable friendships and long-lasting relationships.

In one sense, all of you arehere today because you were approved by the admissions office of Hamilton topursue a course of study, which is now over. In another sense you are herebecause you found a group of friends to sustain you along the way, and thosefriendships will continue. If you take care of them, they will compound in theyears ahead.

Everything that you have doneso far has had some kind of formal ending, some kind of graduation. You should,and I hope that you will, take time today to celebrate all that you’ve achievedso far. But remember that today’s commencement is not the beginning of one morething that will end. It is the beginning of forever. And I won’t delay you anyfurther in getting on with it. Thank you！

视频链接：http://fortune.com/2016/05/22/transcript-peter-thiel-hamilton/

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