【精译求精系列】：塞斯•卡拉曼《安全边际》中的30个重要思想（下篇）

编者按

当今的投资界，除了沃伦·巴菲特，最受敬仰的莫过于基金公司Baupost Group的塞斯•卡拉曼了。自从1983年卡拉曼成立了自己的基金公司，他不仅创下无可匹敌的收益率（年复合增长率超过20%），还时常分享他对市场和投资睿智又经典的见解。

塞斯•卡拉曼是《安全边际：为有想法的投资者准备的风险规避型价值投资策略》一书的作者。这本书1991年初次出版后便立即成为了价值投资的经典著作。

这次，格隆汇精译求精团队，将本书的30个重要思想，翻译整理出来，相信他们会帮助各位成为更好，更敏锐的投资者。

21: Why Margin of Safety

Value investing is the discipline ofbuying securities at a significant discount from their current underlying values and holding them until more of their value is realized. The element ofthe bargain is the key to the process.

二十一：为什么需要安全边际？

价值投资需要投资者时时自律，如此才能以非常划算的价格买到实际价值远高于此的股票，并且能一直抓着不卖，直到其价值被更多地认可。“划算”是整个过程的关键。

Because investing is as much an art as ascience, investors need a margin of safety. A margin of safety is achieved when securities are purchased at prices sufficiently below underlying value to allowfor human error, bad luck, or extreme volatility in a complex, unpredictable,and rapidly changing world.

由于投资和科学一样有艺术，所以投资者需要安全边际。考虑到在这个复杂、无法预测又变换迅速的世界里，人人都有可能犯错、运气不好，还可能遭遇激烈的市场波动等因素，当你能够以远低于一支股票真实价值的价格买它的时候，你就算是有了安全边际了。

According to Graham, "The margin of safety is always dependent on the price paid. For any security, it will be largeat one price, small at some higher price, nonexistent at some still higher price."

格雷厄姆说过：“安全边际的大小取决于你付的钱。任何一个股票，假设某一个价位时安全边际很大，再高一点的时候就变小了，再高一点，就没有安全边际了。”

Value investors seek a margin of safety,allowing room for imprecision, bad luck, or analytical error in order to avoid sizable losses over time. A margin of safety is necessary because…

• Valuation is an imprecise art

• Future is unpredictable, and

• Investors are human and do make mistakes.

价投者需要安全边际，这样才有空间承受长时间累计下来估值不准、运气不好或者分析错误所带来的损失。安全边际是必须的，因为：

•估值是一项艺术，没法精准；

• 未来是无法预测的；

• 投资者也是人，是人就会犯错

22: How Much Margin of Safety

The answer can vary from one investor to the next. How much bad luck are you willing and able to tolerate? How much volatility in business values can you absorb? What is your tolerance for error?It comes down to how much you can afford to lose.

二十二：需要多大的安全边际？

答案因人而异。你觉得自己的运气会有多坏？能承受多坏的运气？你能接受的商业价值波动幅度是多少？你能忍受多严重的错误？归根结底就是，你有多少可输？

Most investors do not seek a margin of safety in their holdings. Institutional investors who buy stocks as pieces of paper to be traded and who remain fully invested at all times fail to achieve amargin of safety. Greedy individual investors who follow market trends and fadsare in the same boat.

绝大多数投资者买股票的时候不会考虑安全边际。那些把股票看作一张张能拿来交易的纸的机构投资者和总是满仓的投资者是无法获得安全边际的。总是盲从市场趋势和潮流的贪婪个人投资者亦如此。

The only margin investors who purchase Wall Street underwritings or financial-market innovations usually experience isa margin of peril.

而那些买了华尔街承销的股票或者金融市场衍生品的投资者能获得的唯一安全边际则往往是危险的。

How can investors be certain of achieving a margin of safety?

•  By always buying at asignificant discount to underlying business value and giving preference totangible assets over intangibles. (This does not mean that there are not excellent investment opportunities in businesses with valuable intangible assets.)

•  By replacing current holdings as better bargains come along.

•  By selling when the market price of any investment comes to reflect its underlying value and by holding cash,if necessary, until other attractive investments become available.

那么投资者如何确保获得安全边际？

•  永远要以超级划算的价格买入实际价值高得多的股票，比起无形资产吗，应更偏好有形资产（但这也不是说那些拥有大量无形资产的公司中就没有好的投资机会了）；

•  当出现了更划算的股票时，替换掉现在手中的；

•  当某个股票的真实价值开始反映到股价上来时，卖掉换成钱，如有必要，一直抓着，直到你发现新的好的投资机会。

Investors should pay attention not onlyto whether but also to why current holdings are undervalued.

It is critical to know why you have made an investment and to sell when the reason for owning it no longer applies. Lookfor investments with catalysts that may assist directly in the realization of underlying value.

投资者们需要搞明白的，不仅是自己手上的票是否被低估了，还有为什么被低估？

当你再没有理由继续持有某个股票时，你就要搞明白当初为什么买，现在为什么卖？找那些会有催化剂的股票，而且是能够直接加速企业真实价值体现的催化剂。

Give preference to companies having good managements with a personal financial stake in the business.

Finally, diversify your holdings and hedge when it is financially attractive to do so.

优先看那些管理层优秀，并且管理层自己也持有公司股票的公司。

最后，当情况允许，前景不错时，差异化你的持股，套期保值。

23: Three Elements of Value Investing

1.Bottom-Up: Value investing employs a bottom-upstrategy by which individual investment opportunities are identified one at atime through fundamental analysis. Value investors search for bargains securityby security, analyzing each situation on its own merits.

二十三：价值投资的三要素

1. 自下而上：价值投资中自下而上的策略就是，通过基本面分析找投资机会，每次找一个。价投者会一个一个找有没有划算的股票，就公司自身分析其每一个情况。

The entire strategy can be concisely described as "buy a bargain and wait." Investors must learn to assess value in order to know a bargain when they see one.

这个策略可以被简单描述为：“买个划算的股票，然后等。”投资者一定要学习给企业估值，这样在看到机会的时候才能抓住。

2. Absolute-Performance Orientation:Most institutional and many individual investors have adopted a relative-performance orientation. They invest with the goal of out performing either the market,other investors, or both and are apparently indifferent as to whether there sults achieved represent an absolute gain or loss.

2. 绝对回报导向：绝大部分的机构投资者和许多个人投资者采用的都是相对回报导向的做法。他们投资的目标要么就是表现比市场好，要么就是比其他投资者好，却显然不关心他们的绝对回报是正的还是负的。

Good relative performance, especially short-term relative performance, is commonly sought either by imitating what others are doing or by attempting to out guess what others will do.

通常，较好的相对回报，特别是短期的相对回报，可以通过模仿别人或尝试看透别人将要采取的行动来获得。

Value investors, by contrast, are absolute-performance oriented; they are interested in returns only insofar as they relate to the achievement of their own investment goals, not how they compare with the way the overall market or other investors are faring. Good absolut eperformance is obtained by purchasing undervalued securities while selling holdings that become more fully valued. For most investors absolute returns are the only ones that really matter; you cannot, after all, spend relativeperformance.

相反地，价值投资者一定是绝对回报导向的。他们只关心回报是否达到了自己的投资目标，而不是去和整体市场或者其他投资者比。好的绝对回报要靠买入被低估的股票，在其真实价值被更多地认可时卖掉。对于大多数投资者来说，绝对收益才是真正要紧的。说到底，你又花不了“相对收益”（因为相对收益不是实打实赚到的钱）。

Absolute-performance-oriented investors usually take a longer-term perspective than relative-performance oriented investors. A relative-performance-oriented investor is generally unwilling or unable to tolerate long periods of underperformance and there- fore invests in whatever is currently popular. To do otherwise would jeopardize near-term results.

绝对收益导向的投资者通常会看问题的角度通常会比相对收益导向的投资者更长远。一个相对收益导向的投资者是无法忍受表现长时间弱于大盘的，所以他们就会去买时下流行的股票。因为不这么做会影响他们的短期投资表现。

Relative-performance-oriented investors may actually shun situations that clearly offer attractive absolute returns overthe long run if making them would risk near-term underperformance. By contrast,absolute-performance oriented investors are likely to prefer out-of-favor holdings that may take longer to come to fruition but also carry less risk ofloss.

事实上，相对收益导向的投资者会有可能避开那些长期的绝对收益会很好，但有可能会让他们面临近期的表现弱于大盘的投资机会。相反，绝对收益导向的投资者就更喜欢那些不那么被大众喜欢的股票，这些股票需要更多时间才会有回报，但亏钱分风险也更小。

3. Risk and Return:While most other investors are preoccupied with how much money they can makeand not at all with how much they may lose, value investors focus on risk aswell as return.

3. 风险与回报：当别的投资者都要全神贯注地计算他们能赚多少时，其实全然不关心他们可能会亏多少。但价投者既关心回报，也关心风险。

Risk is a perception in each investor's mind that results from analysis of the probability and amount of potential loss from an investment. If an exploratory oil well proves to be a dry hole, it is called risky. If a bond defaults or a stock plunges in price, they are called risky.

风险就是每个投资者分析的某个投资行为会亏钱的可能性。勘探一个油井时发现它就只是一口枯井，这就叫风险。债券违约，股价跳水，这都是风险。

But if the well is a gusher, the bond matures on schedule, and the stock rallies strongly, can we say they weren't risky when the investment was made? Not at all.

但是，当油井喷涌，债券按时履约，股价强势反弹时，我们投资时就可以说毫无风险么？当然不是。

The point is, in most cases no more isknown about the risk of an investment after it is concluded than was known whenit was made.

事实是，在大多数情况下，就算是在事后试图总结一项投资的风险，也没法比做决定时了解得更多。

There are only a few things investors can do to counteract risk: diversify adequately, hedge when appropriate, and invest with a margin of safety. It is precisely because we do not and cannot know all the risks of an investment that we strive to invest at a discount. The bargain element helps to provide a cushion for when things go wrong.

投资者们想要抵消风险，能做的其实很少：足够多样化自己的持有；在适当的时候套期保值；投资时寻找一定的安全边际。正因为我们不会，也没法得知投资可能出现的所有风险，我们才需要努力保证自己用折扣价买股票。追求划算的买卖，可以在出问题的时候提供缓冲的保护。

24: Overpaying for Growth

There are many investors who make decisions solely on the basis of their own forecasts of future growth. After all,the faster the earnings or cash flow of a business is growing, the greater that business's present value. Yet several difficulties confront growth-oriented investors.

二十四：为成长性多付太多

太多太多的投资者只根据自己对一个公司未来成长性的预测就决定投资这个公司。说到底，一个公司赚钱更快，它的现值就更高。但是成长性导向的投资者会面临几个难题。

First, such investors frequently demonstrate higher confidence in their ability to predict the future than is warranted.Second, for fast-growing businesses even small differences in one's estimate of annual growth rates can have a tremendous impact on valuation.

首先，这些投资者对自己预测未来的能力经常都泰太过自信。第二，那些快速成长的公司，投资者对它们的年增长率的细微差别都会在给公司估值的时候带来巨大不同。

Moreover, with so many investors attempting to buy stock in growth companies, the prices of the consensus choices may reach levels unsupported by fundamentals.

还有，当很多人都想要买成长性好的股票时，这个统一化的行为就很可能会抬升把公司股价抬到一个超出其根基的水平上。

Since entry to the "Business Hallof Fame" is frequently through a revolving door, investors may at times belured into making overly optimistic projections based on temporarily robust results,there by causing them to overpay for mediocre businesses.

“商业名人堂”的成员总走马灯地换，总会有投资者被金钱诱惑，因为自己现在的强健表现就做出过于乐观的预测，这样往往会使他们为一个中等的公司多付钱。

Another difficulty with investing based on growth is that while investors tend to over simplify growth into a single number,growth is, in fact, comprised of numerous moving parts which vary in their predictability. For any particular business, for example, earnings growth canstem from increased unit sales related to predictable increases in the general population, to increased usage of a product by consumers, to increased market share, to greater penetration of a product into the population, or to price increases.

投资增长性还有一个难题，就是这个导向的投资者把成长性简化成一个简单的数字。但是实际上，一个公司的成长由许多许多动态部分组成，而每个部分的可预测性都不同。举个例子，对于任何公司来说，收入增长可以有很多种意思，可以是总人口可预见性的增长带来的销售量增长，或者是消费者对此产品的使用率上升，或者是市场份额上升，有可能是产品的普及性提高，或者就是价格上升。

25: Shenanigans of Growth

Investors are often overly optimistic in their assessment of the future. A good example of this is the common response tocorporate write-offs.

二十五：成长性“诈骗”

有投资者经常在评估未来时过于乐观。一个很好的例子就是大家看到公司冲销行为时的反应。

This accounting practice enables a company at its solediscretion to clean house, instantaneously ridding itself of underperformingassets, uncollectible receivables, bad loans, and the costs incurred in anycorporate restructuring accompanying the write-off.

这个会计行为使公司可以完全自行进行内部账目的清理，可以马上摆脱自己账面上的不良资产、收不回来的应收账款、坏账、以及任何公司在进行冲销时随之而来重新调整的支出。

Typically such moves are enthusiastically greeted byWall Street analysts and investors alike; post-write-off the company generally reports a higher return on equity and better profit margins. Such improved results are then projected into the future, justifying a higher stock market valuation. Investors, however, should not so generously allow the slate to bewiped clean.

这种行为是典型的受华尔街分析师和投资者一致欢迎的行为。坏账冲销过的公司可以交出一份更好的成绩单，回报更好，利润增长幅度更高。然后，这个“粉饰”过的结果就会被算入对未来的预测中，进一步推高其股票价格。然而，投资者不应该轻易把这个公司的坏账历史也随之一笔勾销。

26: Conservatism and Growth Investing

How do value investors deal with the analytical necessity to predict the unpredictable?

The only answer is conservatism. Since all projections are subject to error, optimistic ones tend to place investors on a precarious limb. Virtually everything must go right, or losses may be sustained.

二十六：保守主义和成长性投资

价投者应该如何去分析和预测不可知的未来？

唯一的答案就是保守主义。所有的预测都有可能犯错，乐观的人总是把自己置于危险的枝干上。对于他们这种情况，每一件事情就一定要在正轨上，不然损失就会持续。

Conservative forecasts can be more easily met or even exceeded. Investors are well advised to make only conservative projections and then invest only at a substantial discount from the valuations derived the refrom.

但是保守的预期就可以很容易达到甚至超过。价投者应该保守地预期，然后以极大的折扣价入手价值远高于其股价的股票。

27: How Much Research and Analysis Are Sufficient?

Some investors insist on trying to obtain perfect knowledge about their impending investments, researching companies until they think they know everything there is to know about them. They study the industryand the competition, contact former employees, industry consultants, andanalysts, and become personally acquainted with top management. They analyze financial statements for the past decade and stock price trends for even longer.

二十七：要做多少研究和分析才算够？

有些投资者在做某项投资之前巴不得自己完美掌握了相关的所有知识，他们研究这些公司，直到他们已经对公司了如指掌。他们去研究行业和竞争情况，去联系公司的前雇员，行业资讯和分析师，自己去熟悉顶尖的经营管理知识。他们分析公司过去十年，甚至更久之前的财务报表和股价走势。

This diligence is admirable, but it has two shortcomings. First, no matter how much research is performed, some information always remains elusive; investors have to learn to live with less than complete information. Second, even if an investor could know all the facts about an investment, he or she would not necessarily profit.

这份勤奋令人佩服，但有两个缺点。第一，不管你做了多少研究，有一些信息你就是找不到，所以投资者要学会接受不足的信息，而不是企图得知所有。第二，就算一个投资者可以获知一个公司的所有信息，他/她的投资也不一定会因此获利。

This is not to say that fundamental analysis is notuseful. It certainly is.

当然，这不是说基本面分析就没用了。它肯定有用。

But information generally follows the well-known 80/20rule: the first 80 percent of the available information is gathered in the first 20 percent of the time spent. The value of in-depth fundamental analysisis subject to diminishing marginal returns.

大部分投资者力求确定性和精确性，避免难以获得信息的情况，殊不知都在做无用功。低价总会伴随极高的不确定性。当不确定性被解决的时候，价格也会水涨船高。

Investors frequently benefit from making investment decisions with less than perfect knowledge and are well rewarded for bearing the risk of uncertainty.

不要等知道所有信息了才投资，这样的投资者可以经常获利。他们承受的不确定性的风险，最后也能为他们带来丰厚的回报。

The time other investors spend delving into the last un answered detail may cost them the chance to buy in at prices so low that theyoffer a margin of safety despite the incomplete information.

当其他投资者还在苦苦钻研公司之前一个还没应答的细节问题时，他们很可能就错失了用极低价买入一个有安全边际的股票的机会了。

28: Value Investing and Contrarian Thinking

Value investing by its very nature is contrarian.Out-of-favor securities may be undervalued; popular securities almost neverare. What the herd is buying is, by definition, in favor. Securities in favor have already been bid up in price on the basis of optimistic expectations andare unlikely to represent good value that has been overlooked.

二十八：价值投资与反向思维

从本质上来说，价投者就是“唱反调”的人。不被大家喜欢的股票才有可能被低估，流行的股票则几乎从来不会出现这种情况。“羊群”买的就是被喜爱的股票。由于大家对它们的预计都很乐观，这些股票的价格已经被抬得很高了，不大可能有还没被发现的价值了。

If value is not likely to exist in what the herd is buying, where may it exist? In what they are selling, unaware of, or ignoring.When the herd is selling a security, the market price may fall well beyond reason.Ignored, obscure, or newly created securities may similarly be or become under valued.

如果大家都买的股票是没有价值的，那哪里有？在他们卖掉的、没有发现的、或者忽视的股票里。当人们都在卖一个股票时，它的股价就会暴跌到不合理的程度。而那些被忽视的、没有名气的、或者新上市的股票也有可能因为同样的原因而被低估。

Investors may find it difficult to act as contrarians for they can never be certain whether or when they will be proven correct.Since they are acting against the crowd, contrarians are almost always initially wrong and likely for a time to suffer paper losses. By contrast,members of the herd are nearly always right for a period. Not only are contrarians initially wrong, they may be wrong more often and for longer periods than others because market trends can continue long past any limits warranted by underlying value.

投资者会觉得很难成为一个“唱反调”的人，因为他们从来不知道自己到底是不是对的，以及何时才会被证明是对的。由于和大家背道而驰，他们在开始阶段几乎都会被看作是做错的那方，还会承受损失。相反，“羊群”里的成员在相当一段时间里则表现得似乎是正确的那方。相比起其他人，唱反调的人不仅在最初，甚至在随后的一段时间里都会看起来做错了，因为潮流可以无视公司的真实价值而持续很久。

Holding a contrary opinion is not always useful to investors,however. When widely held opinions have no influence on the issue at hand,nothing is gained by swimming against the tide. It is always the consensus that the sun will rise tomorrow, but this view does not influence the outcome.

然而，和大家持相反意见也不总是凑效的。当一个众所周知的观点不会对眼前的事造成影响时，就算逆流而上也不会获得什么意外收获。就好比大家总是觉得明天会有太阳，但其实这个观点本身并不会影响之后的结果。

29: Fallacy of Indexing

Tovalue investors the concept of indexing is at best silly and at worst quitehazardous.

二十九：指数谬论

对于价投者来说，做指数这个概念是非常愚蠢，甚至非常有危害性的。

Warren Buffett has observed that "in any sort of a contest -- financial, mental orphysical -- it's an enormous advantage to have opponents who have been taught that it's useless to even try." I believe that over time value investors will out perform the market and that choosing to match it is both lazy and shortsighted.

沃伦·巴菲特发现，“任何一种形势的比赛，金融的、脑力的或者体力的，如果有一个竞争对手能让你切实体会到任何尝试都是无意义的话，其实是一件极大的好事”。我认为随着时间过去，价值投资者终究会表现得强于大盘，而其他那些企图与之比肩的人都是懒惰或短视的。

Indexingis a dangerously flawed strategy for several reasons. First, it becomesself-defeating when more and more investors adopt it.

做指数是一个有着危险缺陷的策略，理由有几个。第一，当越来越多的投资者采用这个策略时，它就失去了作用。

Although indexing is predicated on efficient markets, the higher the percentage of allinvestors who index, the more in efficient the markets become as fewer and fewer investors would be performing research and fundamental analysis.

虽然指数化思想在有效市场上是可以实施的，但是采用这个方法的投资者越多，市场就会变得越来越没有效率，因为越来越少的投资者去研究以及做基本面分析了。

Another problem arises when one or more index stocks must be replaced; this occurs whena member of an index goes bankrupt or is acquired in a takeover.

当指数里有一个或者更多的股票由于破产或者被收购而需要被替换时，另外一个问题就会出现。

Because indexers want to be fully invested in the securities that comprise the index at all times in order to match the performance of the index, the security that is added to the index as a replacement must immediately be purchased by hundreds or perhaps thousands of portfolio managers.

为了跟上自己指数的表现，投资者会倾向于满仓买入指数里的组成股票，而那些被替换进来的股票也一定会马上被成千上万的指数组合型基金经理买入。

Owing to limited liquidity, on the day that a new stock is added to an index, it often jumps appreciably in price as indexers rush to buy. Nothing fundamental has changed; nothing makes that stock worth more today than yesterday. In effect,people are willing to pay more for that stock just because it has become partof an index.

由于缺乏流动性，一个新股票被加进去指数的第一天，由于指数者的哄抢，股价往往会高涨。但是这个公司的根基并没有任何改变，也没有什么新的东西使它变得比前一天更有价值。实际上，就只是因为这个股票被加进了指数里，人们就愿意为它支付更多。

More significantly, as Barron's has pointed out, “A self-reinforcing feedback loop has been created, where the success of indexing has bolstered the performance of the index itself, which, in turn promotes more indexing."

更重要的是，正如巴菲特所说，“因为编制指数获得了成功，于是强化了指数本身的表现，于是又反过来促进更多的编制指数行为，于是一个自我强化的反馈回路产生了”。

30: It’s a Dangerous Place

WallStreet can be a dangerous place for investors. You have no choice but to dobusiness there, but you must always be on your guard.

三十：危险之地

对于投资者来说，华尔街可以是很危险的。你只能在那儿做生意，但你一定要时刻戒备。

Thestandard behavior of Wall Streeters is to pursue maximization of self-interest;the orientation is usually short term. This must be acknowledged, accepted, anddealt with. If you transact business with Wall Street with these caveats inmind, you can prosper.

华尔街人的标准行为就是追求最大化的个人利益。这个导向往往是短期的。你要承认这一点，接受它，与它共事。如果你能在和华尔街精英们做生意时牢记这一点，你就可以成长。

Ifyou depend on Wall Street to help you, investment success may remain elusive.

但如果你指着华尔街来帮你，你就永远别想着能投资成功了。

相关阅读：

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首次将中国境内的海外投资这个特殊群体（海外上市公司，拟在海外上市的公司，海外投资者、机构、监管层）聚拢在一起，结朋交友，共商全球资产配置大计。

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