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Harari, Mariaflavia. 2020. "Cities in Bad Shape: Urban Geometry in India." American Economic Review, 110 (8): 2377-2421.
The spatial layout of cities is an important feature of urban form, highlighted by urban planners but overlooked by economists. This paper investigates the causal economic implications of city shape in India. I measure cities' geometric properties over time using satellite imagery and historical maps. I develop an instrument for urban shape based on geographic obstacles encountered by expanding cities. Compact city shape is associated with faster population growth and households display positive willingness to pay for more compact layouts. Transit accessibility is an important channel. Land use regulations can contribute to deteriorating city shape.
城市空间布局是城市形态的重要特征，为城市规划者所重视，却为经济学家所忽视。本文研究了印度城市形态的因果经济含义。我使用卫星图像和历史地图来测量城市随时间的几何属性。我开发了一种基于城市扩张所遇到的地理障碍的城市形态的工具变量。紧凑的城市形态与更快的人口增长有关，家庭显示出为更紧凑的城市布局付费的积极意愿。交通可达性是重要的影响路径。土地利用法规会导致城市形态的恶化。
Autor, David, Andreas Kostøl, Magne Mogstad, and Bradley Setzler. 2019. "Disability Benefits, Consumption Insurance, and Household Labor Supply." American Economic Review, 109 (7): 2613-54.
There is no evaluation of the consequences of Disability Insurance (DI) receipt that captures the effects on households' net income and consumption expenditure, family labor supply, or benefits from other programs. Combining detailed register data from Norway with an instrumental variables approach based on random assignment to appellant judges, we comprehensively assess how DI receipt affects these understudied outcomes. To consider the welfare implications of the findings from this instrumental variables approach, we estimate a dynamic model of household behavior that translates employment, reapplication, and savings decisions into revealed preferences for leisure and consumption. The model-based results suggest that on average, the willingness to pay for DI receipt is positive and sizable. Because spousal labor supply strongly buffers the household income and consumption effects of DI allowances, the estimated willingness to pay for DI receipt is smaller for married than single applicants.
目前还没有对残疾保险(DI)收据的后果进行评估，以反映其对家庭净收入和消费支出、家庭劳动力供应或其他项目收益的影响。结合来自挪威的详细登记数据和基于随机分配上诉人法官的工具变量方法，我们全面评估DI接收如何影响这些尚未研究的结果。为了考虑工具变量方法的研究结果对福利的影响，我们估计了一个动态的家庭行为模型，该模型将就业、再申请和储蓄决定转化为揭示的休闲和消费偏好。基于模型的结果表明，平均而言，支付DI收据的意愿是积极的，且相当大。由于配偶的劳动供给对家庭收入和消费的影响有较强的缓冲作用，因此，对家庭收入和消费的预期支付意愿，已婚申请人比单身申请人要小。
Deryugina, Tatyana, Garth Heutel, Nolan H. Miller, David Molitor, and Julian Reif. 2019. "The Mortality and Medical Costs of Air Pollution: Evidence from Changes in Wind Direction." American Economic Review, 109 (12): 4178-4219.
We estimate the causal effects of acute fine particulate matter exposure on mortality, health care use, and medical costs among the US elderly using Medicare data. We instrument for air pollution using changes in local wind direction and develop a new approach that uses machine learning to estimate the life-years lost due to pollution exposure. Finally, we characterize treatment effect heterogeneity using both life expectancy and generic machine learning inference. Both approaches find that mortality effects are concentrated in about 25 percent of the elderly population.
我们利用医疗保险数据估计急性细颗粒物暴露对美国老年人死亡率、医疗保健使用和医疗费用的因果影响。我们使用当地风向的变化作为空气污染的工具变量，并开发一种新方法，该方法使用机器学习来估计由于暴露于污染而导致的生命年。最后，我们使用预期寿命和一般机器学习推理来表征处理效应的异质性。两种方法都发现，死亡率影响集中在大约25%的老年人口。
Criscuolo, Chiara, Ralf Martin, Henry G. Overman, and John Van Reenen. 2019. "Some Causal Effects of an Industrial Policy." American Economic Review, 109 (1): 48-85.
We exploit changes in the area-specific eligibility criteria for a program to support jobs through investment subsidies. European rules determine whether an area is eligible for subsidies, and we construct instrumental variables for area eligibility based on parameters of these rule changes. Areas eligible for higher subsidies significantly increased jobs and reduced unemployment. A ten-percentage point increase in the maximum investment subsidy stimulates a 10% increase in manufacturing employment. This effect exists solely for small firms: large companies accept subsidies without increasing activity. There are positive effects on investment and employment for incumbent firms but not Total Factor Productivity.
我们利用特定领域进入标准的变化，通过投资补贴来支持就业项目。欧洲规则决定一个地区是否有资格获得补贴，我们基于这些规则变化的参数构建地区资格的工具变量。符合更高补贴条件的地区就业明显增加，失业率明显下降。最高投资补贴提高10个百分点，就会刺激制造业就业增加10%。。这种影响只对小公司存在:大公司接受补贴而不增加活动。对现有企业的投资和就业有正向影响，但对全要素生产率没有正向影响。
Huber, Kilian. 2018. "Disentangling the Effects of a Banking Crisis: Evidence from German Firms and Counties." American Economic Review, 108 (3): 868-98.
Lending cuts by banks directly affect the firms borrowing from them, but also indirectly depress economic activity in the regions in which they operate. This paper moves beyond firm-level studies by estimating the effects of an exogenous lending cut by a large German bank on firms and counties. I construct an instrument for regional exposure to the lending cut based on a historic, postwar breakup of the bank. I present evidence that the lending cut affected firms independently of their banking relationships, through lower aggregate demand and agglomeration spillovers in counties exposed to the lending cut. Output and employment remained persistently low even after bank lending had normalized. Innovation and productivity fell, consistent with the persistent effects.
银行减少贷款会直接影响企业向银行借款，但也会间接抑制其所在地区的经济活动。本文超越了企业层面的研究，通过估算德国大型银行削减外源性贷款对企业和国家的影响。基于战后银行的历史性解体，构建了针对区域性贷款削减风险敞口的工具变量。提供的证据表明，贷款减少会通过降低总需求和集聚溢出县中集聚的溢出效应，使受影响的公司独立于其银行业务关系而独立进行。
Condra, Luke N., James D. Long, Andrew C. Shaver, and Austin L. Wright. 2018. "The Logic of Insurgent Electoral Violence." American Economic Review, 108 (11): 3199-3231.
Competitive elections are essential to establishing the political legitimacy of democratizing regimes. We argue that insurgents undermine the state's mandate through electoral violence. We study insurgent violence during elections using newly declassified microdata on the conflict in Afghanistan. Our data track insurgent activity by hour to within meters of attack locations. Our results suggest that insurgents carefully calibrate their production of violence during elections to avoid harming civilians. Leveraging a novel instrumental variables approach, we find that violence depresses voting. Collectively, the results suggest insurgents try to depress turnout while avoiding backlash from harming civilians. Counterfactual exercises provide potentially actionable insights for safeguarding at-risk elections and enhancing electoral legitimacy in emerging democracies.
竞争性选举对于建立民主化政权的政治合法性至关重要。我们认为叛乱分子通过选举暴力破坏了国家的授权。我们利用新近解密的阿富汗冲突微观数据研究选举期间的叛乱暴力。我们的数据以小时为单位追踪叛乱分子的活动距离袭击地点只有几米。我们的研究结果表明，叛乱分子在选举期间会谨慎地调整他们的暴力行为，以避免伤害平民。利用一种新颖的工具变量方法，我们发现暴力抑制了投票。总的来说，结果表明叛乱分子试图抑制投票率，同时避免伤害平民的反弹。在新兴民主国家，反事实的做法为维护有风险的选举和提高选举合法性提供了可能可行的见解。
This paper examines the relationship between the destination of exports and the input prices paid by firms, using detailed customs and firm-product-level data from Portugal. Both ordinary least squares regressions and an instrumental-variable strategy using exchange-rate movements (interacted with indicators for initial exports) as a source of variation in destinations indicate that exporting to richer countries leads firms to pay higher prices for inputs, other things equal. The results are supportive of what we call the income-based quality-choice channel: selling to richer destinations leads firms to raise the average quality of goods they produce and to purchase higher-quality inputs.
本文利用葡萄牙详细的海关和企业产品水平的数据，研究了出口目的地与企业支付的投入价格之间的关系。普通最小二乘回归和一种使用汇率变动(与初始出口指标相互作用)作为目的地变化来源的工具变量策略都表明，在其他条件相同的情况下，向较富裕国家出口导致公司为投入物支付更高的价格。研究结果支持了我们所说的以收入为基础的质量选择渠道:向更富裕的目的地销售商品，会导致企业提高其生产的商品的平均质量，并购买质量更高的投入。
Bettinger, Eric P., Lindsay Fox, Susanna Loeb, and Eric S. Taylor. 2017. "Virtual Classrooms: How Online College Courses Affect Student Success." American Economic Review, 107 (9): 2855-75.
Online college courses are a rapidly expanding feature of higher education, yet little research identifies their effects relative to traditional in-person classes. Using an instrumental variables approach, we find that taking a course online, instead of in-person, reduces student success and progress in college. Grades are lower both for the course taken online and in future courses. Students are less likely to remain enrolled at the university. These estimates are local average treatment effects for students with access to both online and in-person options; for other students, online classes may be the only option for accessing college-level courses.
在线大学课程是高等教育的一个迅速发展的特点，但很少有研究表明它们的效果与传统的面对面课堂相比。使用工具变量方法，我们发现，在网上学习课程，而不是面对面学习，会降低学生在大学中的成功和进步。在线课程和未来课程的成绩都较低。学生们不太可能继续留在大学读书。这些估计值是可以使用在线和面对面选项的学生对当地平均处理效应的估计；对于其他学生，在线课程可能是访问大学课程的唯一选择。
Lundborg, Petter, Erik Plug, and Astrid Würtz Rasmussen. 2017. "Can Women Have Children and a Career? IV Evidence from IVF Treatments." American Economic Review, 107 (6): 1611-37.
This paper introduces a new IV strategy based on IVF (in vitro fertilization) induced fertility variation among childless women to estimate the causal effect of having children on their career. For this purpose, we use administrative data on IVF treated women in Denmark. Because observed chances of IVF success do not depend on labor market histories, IVF treatment success provides a plausible instrument for childbearing. Our IV estimates indicate that fertility effects on earnings are: (i) negative, large, and long-lasting; (ii) driven by fertility effects on hourly earnings and not so much on labor supply; and (iii) much stronger at the extensive margin than at the intensive margin.
本文介绍了一种新的工具变量策略，该策略基于IVF（体外受精）诱发的无子女女性生育力变化，以评估生子对她们职业的因果关系。为此，我们使用丹麦接受IVF治疗的女性的行政数据。由于观察到的试管婴儿成功的机会并不取决于劳动力市场的历史，因此试管婴儿的治疗成功为生育提供了一种可行的手段。我们的IV估计表明，生育率对收入的影响是:(i)负的，巨大的，长期的;(二)受生育率对时薪的影响，而对劳动力供应的影响不大;(三)粗放型边际比集约型边际强得多。
Fagereng, Andreas, Luigi Guiso, and Luigi Pistaferri. 2017. "Firm-Related Risk and Precautionary Saving Response." American Economic Review, 107 (5): 393-97.
We propose a new approach to identify the strength of the precautionary motive and the extent of self-insurance in response to earnings risk based on Euler equation estimates. To address endogeneity problems, we use Norwegian administrative data and instrument consumption and earnings volatility with the variance of firm-specific shocks. The instrument is valid because firms pass some of their productivity shocks onto wages; moreover, for most workers, firm shocks are hard to avoid. Our estimates suggest a coefficient of relative prudence of 2, in a very plausible range.
基于欧拉方程的估计，我们提出了一种新的方法来识别防范动机的强度和自我保险对收益风险的反应程度。为了解决内生性问题，我们使用挪威行政数据，使用与公司特定冲击的方差作为消费和收益波动的工具变量。这个工具变量是有效的，因为企业会将部分生产力冲击转嫁到工资上;此外，对大多数工人来说，企业冲击是难以避免的。我们的估计表明，相对谨慎系数为2，在一个非常合理的范围内。
Sheldon, Tamara L., and Chandini Sankaran. 2017. "The Impact of Indonesian Forest Fires on Singaporean Pollution and Health." American Economic Review, 107 (5): 526-29.
Forest burning in Indonesia results in severe episodes of "seasonal haze" in neighboring Singapore. We offer the first causal analysis of the transboundary health effects of the Indonesian forest burning. Instrumenting for air pollution with satellite fire data, we estimate the impacts of the Indonesian fires on Singaporean polyclinic attendance for acute upper respiratory tract infections and acute conjunctivitis. We find that a one standard deviation increase in the Indonesian fire radiative power increases Singaporean pollution by 1.4 standard deviations and causes a 0.7 standard deviation increase in polyclinic attendance for each of the illnesses examined in this paper.
印度尼西亚的森林大火导致邻国新加坡出现严重的“季节性雾霾”。我们首次对印度尼西亚森林燃烧的跨界健康影响进行了因果分析。利用卫星火灾数据作为空气污染的工具变量，我们评估了印尼火灾对新加坡综合医院急性上呼吸道感染和急性结膜炎就诊的影响。我们发现印度尼西亚的火焰辐射功率每增加一个标准差，新加坡的污染就增加1.4个标准差，导致0.7个标准差。
Abdulkadiroğlu, Atila, Joshua D. Angrist, Peter D. Hull, and Parag A. Pathak. 2016. "Charters without Lotteries: Testing Takeovers in New Orleans and Boston." American Economic Review, 106 (7): 1878-1920.
Charter takeovers are traditional public schools restarted as charter schools. We develop a grandfathering instrument for takeover attendance that compares students at schools designated for takeover with a matched sample of students attending similar schools not yet taken over. Grandfathering estimates from New Orleans show substantial gains from takeover enrollment. In Boston, grandfathered students see achievement gains at least as large as the gains for students assigned charter seats in lotteries. A non-charter Boston turnaround intervention that had much in common with the takeover strategy generated gains as large as those seen for takeovers, while other more modest turnaround interventions yielded smaller effects.
特许接管是指传统的公立学校重新成为特许学校。我们为接管出勤开发了一个具有前瞻性的工具变量，它将被指定接管学校的学生与在尚未被接管的类似学校就读的匹配样本的学生进行比较。来自新奥尔良的估计显示，接管注册带来了可观的收益。在波士顿，“祖父学生”所获得的成就，至少与在抽签中获得特许席位的学生所获得的成就一样多。与收购策略有很多共同之处的非特许波士顿转机干预所产生的收益与收购所看到的一样大，而其他更温和的转机干预所产生的效果较小。
Allcott, Hunt, Allan Collard-Wexler, and Stephen D. O'Connell. 2016. "How Do Electricity Shortages Affect Industry? Evidence from India." American Economic Review, 106 (3): 587-624.
We estimate the effects of electricity shortages on Indian manufacturers, instrumenting with supply shifts from hydroelectric power availability. We estimate that India's average reported level of shortages reduces the average plant's revenues and producer surplus by 5 to 10 percent, but average productivity losses are significantly smaller because most inputs can be stored during outages. Shortages distort the plant size distribution, as there are significant economies of scale in generator costs and shortages more severely affect plants without generators. Simulations show that offering interruptible retail electricity contracts could substantially reduce the impacts of shortages.
我们估计了电力短缺对印度制造商的影响，以水电供应转移作为其工具变量。我们估计，印度报告的平均短缺水平降低了平均工厂的收入和生产商盈余5%至10%，但平均生产力损失要小得多，因为大多数投入在停电期间可以储存。短缺扭曲了电厂的规模分布，因为发电机成本存在显著的规模经济，而短缺对没有发电机的电厂的影响更严重。模拟结果表明，提供可中断零售电力合同可以大大减少电力短缺的影响。
Schmieder, Johannes F., Till von Wachter, and Stefan Bender. 2016. "The Effect of Unemployment Benefits and Nonemployment Durations on Wages." American Economic Review, 106 (3): 739-77.
We estimate that unemployment insurance (UI ) extensions reduce reemployment wages using sharp age discontinuities in UI eligibility in Germany. We show this effect combines two key policy parameters: the effect of UI on reservation wages and the effect of nonemployment durations on wage offers. Our framework implies if UI extensions do not affect wages conditional on duration, then reservation wages do not bind. We derive resulting instrumental variable estimates for the effect of nonemployment durations on wage offers and bounds for reservation wage effects. The effect of UI on wages we find arises mainly from substantial negative nonemployment duration effects.
我们估计，失业保险(UI)的延长减少了再就业工资，使用急剧年龄不连续在德国的UI资格。我们展示了这一效应结合了两个关键的政策参数:UI对保留工资的影响和非就业期限对工资提供的影响。我们的框架暗示，如果UI扩展不影响持续时间的工资，那么预留工资就不受约束。我们得出了非雇佣期限对工资提供的影响和保留工资影响的界限的结果工具变量估计。失业保险对工资的影响主要来自于大量的负向的失业持续时间效应。
Cockburn, Iain M., Jean O. Lanjouw, and Mark Schankerman. 2016. "Patents and the Global Diffusion of New Drugs." American Economic Review, 106 (1): 136-64.
Analysis of the timing of launches of 642 new drugs in 76 countries during 1983-2002 shows that patent and price regulation regimes strongly affect how quickly new drugs become commercially available in different countries. Price regulation delays launch, while longer and more extensive patent rights accelerate it. Health policy institutions and economic and demographic factors that make markets more profitable also speed up diffusion. The estimated effects are generally robust to controlling for endogeneity of policy regimes with country fixed effects and instrumental variables. The results highlight the important role of policy choices in driving the diffusion of new innovations.
对1983-2002年76个国家642种新药上市时间的分析表明，专利和价格管制制度对不同国家新药上市的速度有很大影响。价格管制推迟了产品的发布，而更长的、更广泛的专利却加速了产品的发布。卫生政策机构以及使市场更有利可图的经济和人口因素也加速了市场的扩散。估计的效果通常是稳健的控制内生性政策制度与国家固定效应和工具变量。研究结果强调了政策选择在推动新创新扩散方面的重要作用。
Chalfin, Aaron. 2015. "The Long-Run Effect of Mexican Immigration on Crime in US Cities: Evidence from Variation in Mexican Fertility Rates." American Economic Review, 105 (5): 220-25.
Using historical data on the size of state-specific Mexican birth cohorts and geographic migration networks between Mexican states and US metropolitan areas, I construct an instrumental variable that predicts decadal migration from Mexico to the United States. The intuition behind this identification strategy is that larger historical birth cohorts in Mexico yield more potential migrants once each birth cohort reaches prime migration age. I report evidence that Mexican immigration is associated with a decline in property crimes and an increase in aggravated assaults. The available evidence suggests that this is not an artifact of reduced crime reporting among immigrants.
利用各州特有的墨西哥出生队列的规模和墨西哥各州与美国大都市之间的地理移民网络的历史数据，我构建了一个工具变量，用于预测从墨西哥到美国的10年移民。这种识别策略背后的直觉是，在墨西哥，历史出生队列越大，一旦每个出生队列达到最佳移民年龄，就会产生更多的潜在移民。我报告的证据表明墨西哥移民与财产犯罪的减少和加重性攻击的增加有关。我报告的证据表明墨西哥移民与财产犯罪的减少和加重性攻击的增加有关。现有的证据表明，这不是移民犯罪报告减少的人为结果。
Favara, Giovanni, and Jean Imbs. 2015. "Credit Supply and the Price of Housing." American Economic Review, 105 (3): 958-92.
An exogenous expansion in mortgage credit has significant effects on house prices. This finding is established using US branching deregulations between 1994 and 2005 as instruments for credit. Credit increases for deregulated banks, but not in placebo samples. Such differential responses rule out demand-based explanations, and identify an exogenous credit supply shock. Because of geographic diversification, treated banks expand credit: housing demand increases, house prices rise, but to a lesser extent in areas with elastic housing supply, where the housing stock increases instead. In an instrumental variable sense, house prices are well explained by the credit expansion induced by deregulation.
抵押贷款的外源性扩张对房价有显著影响。这一发现是根据美国在1994年至2005年间解除对分支的管制作为信贷工具变量而得出的。对于解除管制的银行，信贷增加了，但在安慰剂样本中却没有。这种差异反应排除了以需求为基础的解释，并确定了一种外生的信贷供应冲击。由于地域多元化，受处理的银行扩大信贷:住房需求增加，房价上涨，但在住房供应有弹性的地区，其程度较小，住房存量反而增加。在工具变量的意义上，房价可以很好地解释放松管制导致的信贷扩张。
Black, Dan A., Seth G. Sanders, Evan J. Taylor, and Lowell J. Taylor. 2015. "The Impact of the Great Migration on Mortality of African Americans: Evidence from the Deep South." American Economic Review, 105 (2): 477-503.
The Great Migration–the massive migration of African Americans out of the rural South to largely urban locations in the North, Midwest, and West–was a landmark event in US history. Our paper shows that this migration increased mortality of African Americans born in the early twentieth century South. This inference comes from an analysis that uses proximity of birthplace to railroad lines as an instrument for migration.
大迁移非洲裔美国人从南方农村大量迁移到北部、中西部和西部的城市是美国历史上具有里程碑意义的事件。我们的论文表明，这种移民增加了20世纪早期出生在南方的非裔美国人的死亡率。这一推论来自一项分析，该分析将出生地与铁路的邻近性作为移民的工具变量。
Kearney, Melissa S., and Phillip B. Levine. 2015. "Media Influences on Social Outcomes: The Impact of MTV's 16 and Pregnant on Teen Childbearing." American Economic Review, 105 (12): 3597-3632.
This paper explores the impact of the introduction of the widely viewed MTV reality show 16 and Pregnant on teen childbearing. Our main analysis relates geographic variation in changes in teen childbearing rates to viewership of the show. We implement an instrumental variables (IV) strategy using local area MTV ratings data from a pre-period to predict local area 16 and Pregnant ratings. The results imply that this show led to a 4.3 percent reduction in teen births. An examination of Google Trends and Twitter data suggest that the show led to increased interest in contraceptive use and abortion.
本文探讨了广受欢迎的MTV真人秀节目* 16和孕妇*的引入对青少年生育的影响。我们的主要分析是将青少年生育率变化的地域差异与该节目的观看次数相关联。我们使用前期的本地MTV收视率数据来实施工具变量（IV）策略，以预测本地16和孕妇收视率。结果表明，该节目导致青少年出生人数减少了4.3％。对Google趋势和Twitter数据的检查表明，该节目引起了人们对避孕药具使用和堕胎的兴趣增加。
Acconcia, Antonio, Giancarlo Corsetti, and Saverio Simonelli. 2014. "Mafia and Public Spending: Evidence on the Fiscal Multiplier from a Quasi-experiment." American Economic Review, 104 (7): 2185-2209.
A law issued to combat political corruption and Mafia infiltration of city councils in Italy has resulted in episodes of large, unanticipated, temporary contractions in local public spending. Using these episodes as instruments, we estimate the output multiplier of spending cuts at provincial level—controlling for national monetary and fiscal policy, and holding the tax burden of local residents constant—to be 1.5. Assuming that lagged spending is exogenous to current output brings the estimate of the overall multiplier up to 1.9. These results suggest that local spending adjustment may be quite consequential for local activity.
意大利出台了一项旨在打击政治腐败和黑手党渗透市议会的法律，结果导致了地方公共支出意外地大幅暂时收缩。利用这些情景作为工具变量，我们估计了控制国家货币和财政政策的省级削减支出的产出乘数，并保持当地居民的税收负担不变为1.5。假设滞后支出是当前产出的外生因素，那么总体乘数的估计值将升至1.9。这些结果表明，地方财政支出的调整可能是不合理的。
Stephens, Melvin Jr., and Dou-Yan Yang. 2014. "Compulsory Education and the Benefits of Schooling." American Economic Review, 104 (6): 1777-92.
Causal estimates of the benefits of increased schooling using U.S. state schooling laws as instruments typically rely on specifications which assume common trends across states in the factors affecting different birth cohorts. Differential changes across states during this period, such as relative school quality improvements, suggest that this assumption may fail to hold. Across a number of outcomes including wages, unemployment, and divorce, we find that statistically significant causal estimates become insignificant and, in many instances, wrong-signed when allowing year of birth effects to vary across regions.
使用美国各州的学校教育法作为工具变量来估计学校教育的收益的因果估计通常依赖于识别，这些识别假设各州在影响不同出生队列的因素上存在共同趋势。在此期间各州之间的差异变化，比如学校质量的相对提高，表明这种假设可能不成立。通过包括工资、失业和离婚在内的一系列结果，我们发现，统计上显著的因果估计变得不重要，并且在许多情况下，当允许出生年份影响在不同地区变化时，错误签署。
Autor, David H., David Dorn, and Gordon H. Hanson. 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States." American Economic Review, 103 (6): 2121-68.
We analyze the effect of rising Chinese import competition between 1990 and 2007 on US local labor markets, exploiting cross- market variation in import exposure stemming from initial differences in industry specialization and instrumenting for US imports using changes in Chinese imports by other high-income countries. Rising imports cause higher unemployment, lower labor force participation, and reduced wages in local labor markets that house import-competing manufacturing industries. In our main specification, import competition explains one-quarter of the contemporaneous aggregate decline in US manufacturing employment. Transfer benefits payments for unemployment, disability, retirement, and healthcare also rise sharply in more trade-exposed labor markets.
我们分析了1990年至2007年间中国进口竞争加剧对美国当地劳动力市场的影响，利用源于最初行业专业化差异的进口敞口的跨市场差异，并利用其他高收入国家的中国进口变化作为美国进口的工具变量。进口增加会导致失业率上升，劳动力参与率降低，当地劳动力市场的工资降低，而这些市场是与进口竞争的制造业的所在地。在我们的主要识别中，进口竞争解释了同期美国制造业就业总数下降的四分之一。在贸易风险较大的劳动力市场，用于失业、残疾、退休和医疗保健的转移补贴也大幅增加。
Aghion, Philippe, John Van Reenen, and Luigi Zingales. 2013. "Innovation and Institutional Ownership." American Economic Review, 103 (1): 277-304.
We find that greater institutional ownership is associated with more innovation. To explore the mechanism, we contrast the "lazy manager" hypothesis with a model where institutional owners increase innovation incentives through reducing career risks. The evidence favors career concerns. First, we find complementarity between institutional ownership and product market competition, whereas the lazy manager hypothesis predicts substitution. Second, CEOs are less likely to be fired in the face of profit downturns when institutional ownership is higher. Finally, using instrumental variables, policy changes, and disaggregating by type of institutional owner, we argue that the effect of institutions on innovation is causal.
们发现，更多的机构所有权与更多的创新相关联。为了探究这一机制，我们将“懒惰管理者”假说与机构所有者通过降低职业风险增加创新激励的模型进行了对比。这些证据有利于职业方面的考虑。首先，我们发现制度所有权和产品市场竞争之间的互补性，而懒惰经理人假说预测替代。其次，当机构所有权较高时，首席执行官在面临利润下滑时不太可能被解雇。最后，利用工具变量、政策变化和机构所有者类型的分解，我们认为制度对创新的影响是因果的。
Dahl, Gordon B., and Lance Lochner. 2012. "The Impact of Family Income on Child Achievement: Evidence from the Earned Income Tax Credit." American Economic Review, 102 (5): 1927-56.
Using an instrumental variables strategy, we estimate the causal effect of income on children's math and reading achievement. Our identification derives from the large, nonlinear changes in the Earned Income Tax Credit. The largest of these changes increased family income by as much as 20 percent, or approximately $2,100, between 1993 and 1997. Our baseline estimates imply that a $1,000 increase in income raises combined math and reading test scores by 6 percent of a standard deviation in the short run. Test gains are larger for children from disadvantaged families and robust to a variety of alternative specifications.
采用工具变量策略，我们估计了收入对儿童数学和阅读成绩的因果影响。我们的识别来自于劳动所得税抵免的巨大非线性变化。在这些变化中，最大的一次增加了家庭收入，在1993年到1997年之间增加了20%，大约2100美元。我们的基线估计表明，在短期内，每增加1000美元的收入，数学和阅读测试的综合成绩就会增加6%的标准差。对于处境不利家庭的孩子来说，考试收益更大，并且对各种替代识别都很稳健。
Dinkelman, Taryn. 2011. "The Effects of Rural Electrification on Employment: New Evidence from South Africa." American Economic Review, 101 (7): 3078-3108.
This paper estimates the impact of electrification on employment growth by analyzing South Africa's mass roll-out of electricity to rural households. Using several new data sources and two different identification strategies (an instrumental variables strategy and a fixed effects approach), I find that electrification significantly raises female employment within five years. This new infrastructure appears to increase hours of work for men and women, while reducing female wages and increasing male earnings. Several pieces of evidence suggest that household electrification raises employment by releasing women from home production and enabling microenterprises. Migration behavior may also be affected.
本文通过分析南非向农村家庭大规模推广电力的方法，估计电气化对就业增长的影响。通过使用几个新的数据源和两种不同的识别策略（工具变量策略和固定效应方法），我发现电气化可以在五年内显着增加女性的就业机会。这种新的基础设施似乎增加了男性和女性的工作时间，同时降低了女性工资并增加了男性收入。一些证据表明，家庭电气化可以通过释放妇女的家庭生产和微型企业的经营来增加就业。迁移行为也可能会受到影响。
关于工具变量
参看1.内生性问题操作指南, 广为流传的22篇文章，2.看完顶级期刊文章后, 整理了内生性处理小册子，3.如何寻找工具变量？得工具者得实证计量，4.内生性处理的秘密武器－工具变量估，5.工具变量在社会科学因果推断中的应用，6.为你的"工具变量"合理性进行辩护, 此文献可以作为范例，7.没有工具变量、断点和随机冲击，也可以推断归因，8.工具变量与因果推断, 明尼苏达Bellemare关于IV的分析，9.工具变量IV与内生性处理的精细解读，10.我的"工具变量"走丢了，寻找工具变量思路手册，11.面板数据里处理多重高维固定效应的神器, 还可用工具变量处理内生性，12.豪斯曼, 拉姆齐检验，过度拟合，弱工具和过度识别，模型选择和重抽样问题，13.工具变量先锋 Sargan，供参考，14.AEA期刊的IV靠不靠谱？15.计量大焖锅: iv, clorenz, rank, scalar, bys, xtile, newey, nlcom，16.GMM是IV、2SLS、GLS、ML的统领，待我慢慢道来，17.IV和GMM相关估计步骤，内生性、异方差性等检验方法，18.因果推断IV方法经典文献，究竟是制度还是人力资本促进了经济的发展？19.内生变量的交互项如何寻工具变量, 交互项共线咋办，20.面板数据、工具变量选择和HAUSMAN检验的若干问题，21.IV和Matching老矣, “弹性联合似然法”成新趋势，22.IV回归系数比OLS大很多咋回事, 怎么办呢? ，23.不用IV, 基于异方差识别方法解决内生性, 赐一篇文献，24.找不到IV, RD和DID该怎么办? 这有一种备选方法，25.内生转换模型vs内生处理模型vs样本选择模型vs工具变量2SLS，26.内生性, 工具变量与 GMM估计, 程序code附，27.GMM和工具变量在面板数据中的运用，28.关于工具变量的材料包, 标题,模型,内生变量,工具变量，29.必须使用所有外生变量作为工具变量吗？30.工具变量精辟解释, 保证你一辈子都忘不了，31.毛咕噜论文中一些有趣的工具变量！33.前沿: 删失数据分位数工具变量(CQIV)估计, 做删失数据异质性效应分析，34.不需要找工具变量, 新方式构建工具变量, 导师再也不用担心内生性问题了！35.关于顶级外刊工具变量的使用最全策略, 不收藏反复读就不要谈IV估计！36.如何通过因果图选择合适的工具变量？一份关于IV的简短百科全书，37.前沿: nature刊掀起DAG热, 不掌握就遭淘汰无疑！因果关系研究的图形工具! 38.最清晰的内生性问题详解及软件操作方案！实证研究必备工具！39.中国女学者与其日本同行在JPE上发文了！利用独特数据, 地理断点RDD和IV研究中国环境议题！40.双胞胎样本解决遗漏变量和测量误差, LIV解决选择偏差，41.内生性处理的秘密武器－工具变量估计，42.工具变量IV必读文章20篇, 因果识别就靠他了，43.看完顶级期刊文章后, 整理了内生性处理小册子，44.“内生性” 到底是什么鬼? New Yorker告诉你，45.Heckman两步法的内生性问题(IV-Heckman)，46.最全估计方法，解决遗漏变量偏差，内生性，混淆变量和相关问题，47.非线性面板模型中内生性解决方案，48.内生性处理方法与进展，49.内生性问题和倾向得分匹配，50.你的内生性解决方式out, ERM独领风骚，51.面板数据是怎样处理内生性的，52.计量分析中的内生性问题综述，53.一份改变实证研究的内生性处理思维导图，54.Top期刊里不同来源内生性处理方法，55.面板数据中heckman方法和程序(xtheckman)，56.控制函数法CF, 处理内生性的广义方法，57.二值选择模型内生性检验方法，58.2SRI还是2SPS, 内生性问题的二阶段CF法实现，59.非线性模型及离散内生变量处理利器, 应用计量经济学中的控制函数法！60.最全利用工具变量控制内生性的步骤和代码—在经管研究中的应用，61.如何选择合适的工具变量, 基于既有文献的总结和解释！62.中介效应最新进展: 中介效应中的工具变量法使用方法及其代码！63.弱工具变量的稳健性检验, 附上code和相关说明！64.工具变量对因果效应的识别和外推, 大牛的顶级评述！
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