其他
2020年国人发表的Top5刊清单, 以及中国主题的Top5文章清单！
凡是搞计量经济的，都关注这个号了
邮箱：econometrics666@126.com
关于Top 5期刊，我们引荐了如下文章：“1.JPE上19年以来10篇比较有意思且重要的文章”，2.机器学习方法出现在AER, JPE, QJE等顶刊上了！，3.中国内地学者过去30年发Top5刊的信息都在这里，4.AER史上最严关于论文数据和代码可得性政策，应对实证论文的复制性危机！5.五大Top经济刊物的在40年里发生了什么？6.最新研究, 没有Top5刊物, 劝你不要想终身教职! 7.Top期刊里不同来源内生性处理方法, 从此掌握少林绝学易筋经，8.经济学所有细分领域Top10大牛,不知晓他们我不好意思提创新，9.AER, AEJ上用准自然实验识别的实证文章有哪些？含程序和code, 不看至少需要收藏一下！10.AER和AEJ系列期刊最新一期, 有几篇关于中国的文章，11.机器学习方法出现在AER, JPE, QJE等顶刊上了！12.这个外国人拿中国数据发了多篇AER, JPE, RES等五大顶刊！汗颜！13.过去10年AER上关于中国主题的Articles专辑！14.使用OLS回归发AER的Articles专辑！15.AER, JHR主编告诉你, 如何在期刊上发论文，16.传销活动对经济发展影响, AER上截面数据分析经典文，17.AER上因果关系确立, 敏感性检验, 异质性分析和跨数据使用经典文章，18.统计显著与经济显著, 发AER和经济研究的标配，19.与AER齐名的期刊主编亲笔信, 你需要这样来做计量实证研究，20.AER上以DID, DDD为识别策略的劳动和健康经济学，21.一个使用截面数据的政策评估方法, 也可以发AER，22.机制分析做到极致的JPE趣文, 身高与收入，23.QJE上处理内生性问题的必读作品细致解读, 非洲奴隶贸易的长远影响，24.从QJE的引用率事实，我们如何看出了经济文章价值？25.结果不显著但成功发在Top期刊上的论文有哪些？你心虚过没？26.男神毛咕噜最新Top5大作, 另外, 有序因变量依然使用OLS回归! 27.金融Top刊JOF近20万大奖, 有哪些论文获得了？28.2020年中文Top期刊重点选题方向, 写论文就写这些，29.Top, 机器学习是一种应用的计量经济学方法, 不懂将来面临淘汰危险！30.发表Top5刊的500强名单出炉, 这几位中国人实至名归等等。
American Economic Review
Job Matching under Constraints
Abstract：Studying job matching in a Kelso-Crawford framework, we consider arbitrary constraints imposed on sets of doctors that a hospital can hire. We characterize all constraints that preserve the substitutes condition (for all revenue fiaictions that satisfy the substitutes condition), a critical condition on hospitals' revenue functions for well-behaved competitive equilibria. A constraint preserves the substitutes condition if and only if it is a "generalized interval constraint," which specifies the minimum and maximum numbers of hired doctors, forces some hires, and forbids others. Additionally, "generalized polyhedral constraints" are precisely those that preserve the substitutes condition for all "group separable" revenue functions.
Social Ties and the Selection of China's Political Elite
Abstract：We study how sharing a hometown or college connection with an incumbent member of China's Politburo affects a candidate's likelihood of selection as a new member. In specifications that include fixed effects to absorb quality differences across cities and colleges, we find that hometown and college connections are each associated with 5-9 percentage point reductions in selection probability. This "connections penalty" is equally strong for retiring Politburo members, arguing against quota-based explanations, and it is much stronger for junior Politburo members, consistent with a role for intra-factional competition. Our findings differ from earlier work because of our emphasis on within-group variation, and our focus on shared hometown and college, rather than shared workplace, connections.
Diffusing Coordination Risk
Abstract：In a regime change game, privately informed agents sequentially decide whether to attack without observing others' previous actions. To dissuade them from attacking, a principal adopts a dynamic information disclosure policy, frequent viability tests. A viability test publicly discloses whether the regime has survived the previous attacks. When such tests are sufficiently frequent, in the unique cutoff equilibrium, agents never attack if the regime passes the latest test, regardless of their private signals. We apply this theory to demonstrate that a borrower can eliminate panic-based runs by sufficiently diffusing the rollover choices across different maturity dates.
Arrival of Young Talent: The Send-Down Movement and Rural Education in China
Abstract：This paper estimates the effects on rural education of the send-down movement during the Cultural Revolution, when about 16 million urban youth were mandated to resettle in the countryside. Using a county-level dataset compiled from local gazetteers and population censuses, we show that greater exposure to the sent-down youths significantly increased rural children's educational achievement. This positive effect diminished after the urban youth left the countryside in the late 1970s but never disappeared. Rural children who interacted with the sent-down youths were also more likely to pursue more-skilled occupations, marry later, and have smaller families than those who did not.
Econometrica
Non-Clairvoyant Dynamic Mechanism Design
Abstract：We introduce a new family of dynamic mechanisms that restricts sellers from using future distributional knowledge. Since the allocation and pricing of each auction period do not depend on the type distributions of future periods, we call this family of dynamic mechanisms non-clairvoyant. We develop a framework (bank account mechanisms) for characterizing, designing, and proving lower bounds for dynamic mechanisms (clairvoyant or non-clairvoyant). We use the same methods to compare the revenue extraction power of clairvoyant and non-clairvoyant dynamic mechanisms.
Randomization and Ambiguity Aversion
Abstract：We propose a model of preferences in which the effect of randomization on ambiguity depends on how the unknown probability law is determined. We adopt the framework of Anscombe and Aumann (1963) and relax the axioms. In the resulting representation of the individual's preference, the individual has a collection of sets of priors M. She believes that before she moves, nature has chosen an unknown scenario (a set of priors) from M, and from that scenario, nature will choose a prior after she moves. The representation illustrates how randomization may partially eliminate the effect of ambiguity.
Journal of Political Economy
Equilibrium Labor Market Search and Health Insurance Reform
Abstract：We present and empirically implement an equilibrium labor market search model where risk-averse workers facing medical expenditure shocks are matched with firms making health insurance coverage decisions. We use our estimated model to evaluate the equilibrium impact of many health care reform proposals, including the 2010 Affordable Care Act (ACA). We use the estimates of the early impact of the ACA as a model validation. We find that income-based subsidies for health insurance premiums are crucial for the sustainability of the ACA, while the ACA can still substantially reduce the uninsured rate without the individual or the employer mandate.
Motivated False Memory
Abstract：People often forget and sometimes fantasize. This paper reports a large-scale experiment on memory errors and their relation to preferential traits including time preference, attitudes toward risk and ambiguity, and psychological characteristics such as anticipatory feelings. We observe systematic incidences of false memory in favor of positive events and positive amnesia in forgetting past negative events. Both positive delusion and positive confabulation significantly relate to present bias, but this is not the case for positive amnesia. In an intraperson, multiple-self model, we demonstrate that positive false memory, rather than selective amnesia, serves to enhance confidence in one's future self in equilibrium, thereby accounting for our experimental findings.
Willingness to Pay for Clean Air: Evidence from Air Purifier Markets in China
Abstract: We develop a framework to estimate willingness to pay for clean air from defensive investments on differentiated products. Applying this framework to scanner data on air purifier sales in China, we find that a household is willing to pay $1.34 annually to remove 1 μg/m3 of air pollution (PM10) and $32.7 annually to eliminate the pollution induced by the Huai River heating policy. Substantial heterogeneity is explained by income and exposure to information on air pollution. Using these estimates, we evaluate various environmental policies and quantify the value of recent air quality improvements since China declared a war on pollution in 2014.
Quarterly Journal of Economics
Watering Down Environmental Regulation in China
Abstract: This article estimates the effect of environmental regulation on firm productivity using a spatial regression discontinuity design implicit in China's water quality monitoring system. Because water quality readings are important for political evaluations and the monitoring stations only capture emissions from their upstream regions, local government officials are incentivized to enforce tighter environmental standards on firms immediately upstream of a monitoring station, rather than those immediately downstream. Exploiting this discontinuity in regulation stringency with novel firm-level geocoded emission and production data sets, we find that immediate upstream polluters face a more than 24% reduction in total factor productivity (TFP), and a more than 57% reduction in chemical oxygen demand emissions, as compared with their immediate downstream counterparts. We find that the discontinuity in TFP does not exist in nonpolluting industries, only emerged after the government explicitly linked political promotion to water quality readings, and was predominantly driven by prefectural cities with career-driven leaders. Linking the TFP estimate with the emission estimate, a back-of-the-envelope calculation indicates that China's water regulation efforts between 2000 and 2007 were associated with an economic cost of more than 800 billion Chinese yuan.
Review of Economic Studies
International Financial Integration and Crisis Contagion
Abstract：International financial integration helps to diversify risk but also may spread crises across countries. We provide a quantitative analysis of this trade-off in a two-country general equilibrium model with collateral-constrained borrowing using a global solution method. Borrowing constraints bind occasionally, depending upon the state of the economy and levels of inherited debt. We examine different degrees of international financial integration, moving from financial autarky, to bond and equity market integration. Financial integration leads to a significant increase in global leverage, substantially escalates the probability of crises for any one country, and dramatically increases the degree of "contagion" across countries. Outside of crises, the impact of financial integration on macroeconomic aggregates is relatively small. But the impact of a crisis with integrated international financial markets is much less severe than that under financial market autarky. Thus, a trade-off emerges between the probability of crises and the severity of crises. Using a large cross-country database of financial crises in developing and developed economies over a forty-year period, we find evidence in support of the model.
Frictional Goods Markets: Theory and Applications
Abstract：We analyse dynamic general equilibrium models with more-or-less directed search by informed buyers and random search by uninformed buyers. This nests existing specifications and generates new insights. A quantitative application concerns the welfare cost of inflation, which is known to be quite high with pure random search and low with pure directed search. Our calibration implies the impact of inflation is fairly low, in part because, in addition to the usual costs, it provides benefits by more heavily taxing high-price sellers that inefficiently profit from exploiting the uninformed. Other applications analyse analytically and numerically changes in credit conditions and information.
Immigrants and the Making of America
Abstract：We study the effects of European immigration to the U.S. during the Age of Mass Migration (1850-1920) on economic prosperity. Exploiting cross-county variation in immigration that arises from the interaction of fluctuations in aggregate immigrant flows and of the gradual expansion of the railway network, we find that counties with more historical immigration have higher income, less poverty, less unemployment, higher rates of urbanization, and greater educational attainment today. The long-run effects seem to capture the persistence of short-run benefits, including greater industrialization, increased agricultural productivity, and more innovation.
之前，我们引荐了一些关于中国高校发表的信息：2.双一流高校在中文经管Top刊物上发表情况，3.经济研究, 管理世界被引用量Top200文章，4.《经济研究》在英文期刊中到底处于什么位置？5.《经济研究》所有文章"计量方法"分类汇总，6.中国的经管研究在世界上到底处于什么水平? 7.这些中国经济学家能得诺贝尔经济学奖吗？8.中国内地学者过去30年发Top5刊的信息都在这里，9.2019中国学者经济各分支一流S刊物发表文章115篇，10.2019中国学者金融和会计一流S刊物发表文章40篇，11.2018年中国学者在SSCI上发文最多的刊物，12.那些发表过A层次英文期刊的高校经管学院分类，13.中国英文发表影响力Top60经管学院名单出炉，14.双一流高校在中文经管Top刊物上发表情况，15.真切比较国内外学术氛围；
16.2019年中文社科Top期刊里都有哪些大学和学者？，17.2019各社科领域外文Top期刊里各大学(学者)发文情况如何？，18.中国台湾省的《经济研究》刊啥水平, 期刊如何分级的？，19.2020年中文Top期刊重点选题方向, 写论文就写这些，20.重要信号！复旦和上交人文社科学术期刊分级办法，21.耶鲁教授: 大部分中国学术期刊实际上与大众媒体无实质差别，22.中国第一本金融领域SSCI期刊诞生！23.保密! 高校主办期刊中本校学者所占比例的信息，24.国内一流高校学术"近亲繁殖"统计表，25.AER, QJE = 经济研究 ？26.我国学术经济学家为什么失败？为什么没存在感？为什么不受待见？27.置身于体制内与体制外的两类经济学家，28.中国计量经济学院校60强, 中国计量经济学家300强，29.全球前1000名经济学家名单权威发布,中国有几位入围榜单，30.管理学的尴尬等等。
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Econometrics Circle
数据系列：空间矩阵 | 工企数据 | PM2.5 | 市场化指数 | CO2数据 | 夜间灯光 | 官员方言 | 微观数据 | 内部数据计量系列：匹配方法 | 内生性 | 工具变量 | DID | 面板数据 | 常用TOOL | 中介调节 | 时间序列 | RDD断点 | 合成控制 | 200篇合辑 | 因果识别 | 社会网络 | 空间DID数据处理：Stata | R | Python | 缺失值 | CHIP/ CHNS/CHARLS/CFPS/CGSS等 |干货系列：能源环境 | 效率研究 | 空间计量 | 国际经贸 | 计量软件 | 商科研究 | 机器学习 | SSCI | CSSCI | SSCI查询 | 名家经验计量经济圈组织了一个计量社群，有如下特征：热情互助最多、前沿趋势最多、社科资料最多、社科数据最多、科研牛人最多、海外名校最多。因此，建议积极进取和有强烈研习激情的中青年学者到社群交流探讨，始终坚信优秀是通过感染优秀而互相成就彼此的。