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It is not officially called a pandemic but COVID-19 is rapidly spreading worldwide. In late January, the vast majority of cases were in China. A month later, cases outside China began to grow and it only took another week for the virus to spread to every continent except Antarctica.
尽管还未正式宣布为全球大流行，新冠病毒（COVID-19）已经开始在全球迅速传播。这是一月下旬时，绝大多数病例都发生在中国。一个月以后，中国以外的病例逐渐增加。仅仅一周时间病毒就传播到了南极洲以外的各个大洲。According to the World Health Organization, (as of March 5) 85 countries/territories/areas outside China have reported over 14,000 cases. On March 4, 14 times as many cases were reported outside China than inside. 据世卫组织3月5日发布的数据，中国境外85个国家（地区), 累计报告了超过14,000个病例。3月4日，中国以外地区报告的病例数达到中国境内病例数的14倍。
There are a few challenges so far in the fight against the COVID-19. The first is a cover-up mentality which proved to be the worst enemy of an epidemic. In Hubei the epicenter, local officials should have disclosed and reported more information sooner to avoid a larger outbreak. In South Korea, the founder of a religious sect did not disclose his travel history to Wuhan and resulted in half of the country's current infections.疫情中心湖北省的官员本应更早公布并汇报更多信息以阻止疫情更大规模的爆发。在韩国，某宗教团体创始人没有公布其武汉旅行史，导致韩国现有病例中半数都来自于该团体。The second challenge is a lack of a non-partisan coordinated national response.The mortality rate in the U.S. as of March 4 is eight percent. That's higher than the four percent in China's epicenter Hubei or three percent in Iran. With 2020 being an election year in the U.S., the Trump administration's response to COVID-19 has been as much a political issue as a public health issue. 3月4日为止，美国新冠肺炎的死亡率为百分之八，高于疫情中心湖北省的百分之四和伊朗的百分之三。由于2020年是美国的大选年，特朗普政府对COVID-19疫情的应对既是公共卫生事件，也是政治议题。While the real focus, as many argue, should be on a quicker response and faster diagnosis.然而，正如很多人所说的，工作的真正重心应该是采取更果断的措施和进行更快速的检测。In an interview with CNBC, Dr. Matt McCarthy, staff physician at New York-Presbyterian Hospital said: "As one of the busiest hospitals in the country, I don't have [testing kits] at my fingertips. I still have to call the department of health. I still have to make my case, to plea to test people.”纽约长老会医院主治医师马特·麦卡锡在CNBC的采访中说到：“我的医院是全美最繁忙的医院之一，但我手头没有（检测试剂试剂盒）。我还得给卫生部打电话。我还得要给出我的理由，请求给人们做检测。”Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former FDA Commissioner also stated: "One of the mistakes, one of the challenges was getting the diagnostic testing in place.... we always rely on the CDC in a public health emergency.”前任美国食品和药物管理局局长斯科特·戈特利布博士也强调说：“一种错误做法，挑战之一是进行诊断检测……我们在发生紧急公共卫生事件时总是依赖疾控中心。”The final challenge is to find the balance between personal liberty and restrictive measures, such as quarantine and travel bans.最后一个挑战是在人身自由和像是隔离以及旅行禁令等限制手段之间寻找平衡。In hard-hit Italy, besides in heavily affected cities, there haven't been nationwide travel restrictions. With the EU's open borders, Italy exported the virus to 14 countries in a week.在受疫情影响较大的意大利，除了几个情况严重的城市，政府还未实施全国范围内的旅行限制。
This, while some residents in Italy refused to wear masks and went on a protest, demanding the government to give back their “liberty" Demands like this apparently angered an Italian parliamentarian who believes it's better to be safe than sorry.由于欧盟各国边境开放，意大利在一周内就将病毒输出至14个国家。类似的要求显然激怒了一位意大利议员，他认为保障安全总比万一出事更重要。
And in France some people shared a similar story.A French girl named Cleo Luden shared a video on the popular Chinese video-sharing app Douyin (Tik Tok). In the video, she says : "The French don't usually wear masks, maybe they do now, but we can't find any at the moment. You must see a doctor first and then buy some masks if the doctor says you need them, otherwise the pharmacy won't sell you any. I don't know why! We all feel that the French government takes it too easy and people in France are just freaked out."法国女孩魏无瑕在抖音上分享了这样一则视频，她在视频中说到：“法国人没有戴口罩的习惯。但是估计现在会有了。不过现在好像买不到口罩了。只能去看医生，然后医生给你说可以霾口罩，你就可以去买。不然药房就不卖给你了。我也不知道为什么！我们都感觉，法国政府对于这个事情有点过于轻松，我们法国人民都很担心。”In the U.S., experts say there could be legal issues for large-scale quarantine, even though top experts say under some circumstances, extreme measures proved effective.在美国，专家称采取大范围的隔离措施可能会引发法律问题，虽然最高级别的专家指出在某些情况下，采用极端措施是证明有效的。Maria Van Kerkhove, technical Lead at WHO Health Emergency Program, voiced support and spoken highly of China's efforts to combat the COVID-19 stressing that "following these fundamental measures, looking for cases, looking for contacts, social distancing, hand-washing, respiratory etiquette, readying your systems, having an aggressive approach to this, we believe a reduction in cases in other countries, including South Korea, including Italy, including Iran, everywhere that this is possible.”世界卫生组织公共卫生紧急计划技术主管玛丽亚·范·柯霍夫高度评价中国抗击新冠肺炎疫情努力，强调说“比如寻找病例、追踪接触者、保持社交距离、勤洗手、注意呼吸道礼仪、各类系统准备就位以及采取严格手段，那么我们相信其他国家，比如韩国、意大利和伊朗等等的病例都会减少。If COVID-19 has taught us anything, that is – in face of an unknown disease, perhaps there is no such thing as a perfect response system. All countries need to own up to their limitations, be adaptable, respect science, avoid mistakes made, and follow practices that have proven effective.如果说新冠肺炎疫情给我们留下了什么启示，那就是在未知疾病面前，可能根本不存在完美的反应机制。所有国家都需要承认自己的不足，灵活应对，尊重科学，避免失误并采取已被证实有效的做法。
冠察天下--疫情究竟如何影响中国经济？
Just how badly will the coronavirus hit the Chinese economy and the world economy? There are real worries out there.
新冠病毒对中国乃至世界经济的打击到底有多严重？人们对此相当担忧。Jill Schlesinger, CBS This Morning Business Analyst said "The Chinese growth will drop from about a six percent annualized pace to five percent." Time also reported that "COVID-19 sparked fears of a global economic slowdown." Eric Robersten, head of Global Marco strategy at Standard Chartered stressed: "The hit to tourism, industry, and the supply chain, etc is going to be with us for several quarters."“CBS今早”节目商业分析师吉尔·施莱辛格指出:“中国经济增速将从每年6%下降至5%.”《时代周刊》也在报道中指出，新冠肺炎引发全球经济放缓的恐慌。 渣打银行全球宏观策略首席分析师埃里克·罗伯逊强调新冠肺炎打击旅游业，制造业,供应链等方面，这种影响也会持续一段时间。In addition, many headlines cited two surveys. The first is by Peking and Tsinghua Universities on February 5, that says 85 percent of small- to medium- sized Chinese companies polled (995 in total) said they could last no more than three months.不仅如此，很多头条新闻还引用了两项调查。一项是清华大学和北京大学在2月5日进行的调查。结果显示，在接受调查的995家的中国中小型企业中，有85%表示他们的现金流最多能维持3个月。The other is conducted by American Chamber of Commerce Shanghai between February 11-14, where nearly half (48%) of foreign companies in China (109 companies) said their operations were impacted.另一项是上海美国商会在2月11到14号期间所做的调查。参与调查的109家在华外资企业中，有近一半（48%）表示他们的日常运营受到了影响。These are stressful times.BUT as one would note, many of these surveys and forecasts were made in early- to mid- February when there was no end in sight to the outbreak. Since then, new cases have declined and work has started to resume. It has become a fluid situation that changes by the day, if not by the hour.That’s why we need to pay attention not just to the HEADLINES, but also the TRENDLINES.但不难发现，这些调查和预测有很多是二月上中旬做出的。当时，疫情的结束还看似遥遥无期。在那之后，新增病例的数目开始下降，各地也逐步复工。情况即便谈不上瞬息万变，至少每天都有新的变化。因此，我们不仅要关注新闻标题，也要关注疫情趋势。In an exclusive interview with our program, China’s national grid says Guangdong saw a 62 percent increase in industrial electricity usage in a seven-day period since February 10 (Feb.10-16).本节目通过对国家电网系统的独家采访了解到，广东省自2月10日起的七天时间里，工业用电量增加了62%。In Jiangsu, commercial electricity usage went up 35 percent. (Feb.10-17). In Guangdong, over 60 percent of companies had reopened as of February 17th. And we are talking about China’s largest and second largest economies where many of its manufacturing and services are based.江苏省的商业用电量增加了35% （2月10日至17日）。截止2月17日，广东省全省企业总体复工比例超6成。广东和江苏是中国经济体量中排名前两名的省份，很多制造业和服务业在那里。Even Apple said in its quarterly guidance that the disruption to their factories in China is expected to be "temporary."就连苹果公司也在其季度业绩展望中指出，疫情对其在华工厂的影响预计是“暂时”的。In fact, since mid-February, those living in Beijing and other major cities saw businesses around them slowly reopened and familiar sights, such as traffic jams, returned.事实上，自二月中旬以来，北京和其他主要城市的人们已经发现，周围的企业开始慢慢复工，堵车等昔日熟悉的景象又重新出现了。Kristalina Georgieva, IMF managing-director stated:"We are confident in the resilience of China's economy."国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯蒂娜·乔治耶娃表示: “我们对中国经济的恢复有信心。”In the short-run though, challenges remain. Many companies are still short-staffed due to self-isolation of their employees and for others, cash flow is a real problem.但短期内，挑战依然存在。不少企业仍然由于员工自我隔离而人手不足，还有一些企业面临着现金流方面的难题。To cope with that, new policies have been announced to exempt pension co-pays for private firms. 173 billion U.S. dollars have been injected into the financial system. And pledges were made to lower borrowing costs.Implementation is key here. To transition from epidemic control mode to going-back-to-work mode is a difficult shift. And path dependence, bureaucracy and red tape can get in the way.为应对这些问题，政府出台了新政策减免私营企业的社保缴费，向金融系统注资1730亿美元并承诺降低贷款利率。关键要把这些政策落到实处。从防疫模式转换为复工模式并非易事。路径依赖、官僚主义和形式主义可能成为障碍。This picture, circulating on social media, shows a company in one Chinese city needing at least nine stamps from authorities to resume production. Fortunately, the next day, public pressure kicked in and those procedures were simplified.这张在社交媒体上流传的照片显示，中国某城市的一家公司需要盖至少九个公章才能恢复生产。幸运的是，迫于舆论压力，相关手续次日得到了简化。Finally, the financial markets seem to think the economic impact of COVID-19 will be short-term. Since mid-February, 730 million dollars have flown back to emerging markets ETFs, after two straight weeks of outflows on fears of the virus.最后，金融市场似乎认为新冠疫情的经济影响是短期的。自二月中旬开始，7.3亿美元的资金重新流回新兴市场基金。此前出于对病毒的恐慌，资金曾连续两周外流。China's stock market plummeted in the early days of the outbreak but many investors bought the dip and the main indexes bounced back.疫情初期，中国股票市场大幅下跌。但由于不少投资者纷纷抄底，主要股指已经反弹。There was also a similar V-shaped recovery story with the U.S. stock market. At least for now.
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