“拜”局已定：拜登如何谈论中国？｜数说

原创人大新闻系 RUC新闻坊 2021-05-15

美国东部时间11月7日11时26分，随着拜登一举拿下其家乡宾夕法尼亚州的23票，这位民主党总统候选人成功越过了作为胜选门槛的270票。美联社与《纽约时报》《华尔街日报》、福克斯新闻等多家背景、立场不同的美国媒体相继发布消息，确认拜登当选美国总统。

在以稳定闻名的政治框架和强大的政治传统之下，竞选逐渐沦为一场政治表演。但这一次，在经历了特朗普“重新定义总统”的冲击，以及新冠大流行的背景下，人们的目光重归结果：“谁”能赢？

而作为中国网民，选举之后中美关系的走向也是重点关注的议题。我们聚焦目前更有可能当选、也相对陌生的拜登，搜集和梳理了他自去年4月25日宣布正式参选至今的竞选演讲、施政论纲、辩论、公开发言、对媒体的回应，以及他在社交媒体（Twitter）上对中国议题的表达。

新一任的白宫主人，曾在对华议题上释放过什么样的信号？“拜登当选之后”，中美关系可能何去何从？

What did Biden tweet

相较于特朗普笔耕不辍地“推特治国”，且时不时拿中国开涮相比，拜登在推特上进行政治表态和cue到中国的频率都要低得多。

从去年4月25日正式宣布参选美国总统至2020年11月6日，拜登在其个人推特账号上发布的所有推文中，仅有37篇提及中国，其团队的推特账号则仅有1篇。

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“中国(China)”一词总共在推文中出现41次，而“特朗普（Trump）”“总统（President）”则紧随其后，分别出现29次与25次。可以说，拜登似乎没有将中国作为一个发表自己独立的言说议题，而是借以挑战其政敌特朗普的抓手。

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值得注意的是，拜登对中美关系的态度曾在去年5、6月发生了一次大的转变。2019年5月1月，拜登在艾奥瓦州的一次公开演讲中称“中国不是我们的竞争对手”，他的论据是中国还在为反腐、解决主权争端等内部问题焦头烂额。短短一个月后，拜登在另一场演讲中完全推翻了自己的看法——“我们与中国是竞争关系，中国是一个严峻的挑战，在某些领域甚至是一种威胁。在特朗普进行极具破坏性和不稳定性的贸易战时，中国正在为那些‘未来科技’投入。”

在拜登的一份施政纲领中，他表示要着重发展五大高新技术领域：清洁能源、量子计算、人工智能、5G和高速铁路。今年10月，拜登在密歇根州演讲时，直面中美在清洁能源领域的竞争关系，“我会升级扩大产能，让美国（而不是中国）处于新能源汽车产业的世界领先地位。”拜登对美国“领导力”的追求是他的一大特点，在2019年6月发布的一项能源革命和环境保护计划中他也提到：“两个世纪前，第一次大规模的铁路扩张推动了我们的工业革命。如今，美国在铁路安全和速度方面已落后于欧洲和中国。”

美国稳定的意识形态和强大的政治惯性，让“不论选举结果如何，新总统都不会对中国太好”已经在某种意义上成为国内的一种共识。拜登对传统中美关系中高频议题的表态，也可见他对中国的强硬态度较之特朗普并未有所缓和。

例如在贸易战议题上，拜登虽然指责特朗普的相关政策让美国人民付出代价，但并没有表示出终止中美贸易摩擦的意图，反而表示将会“与中国对抗，帮助美国工薪家庭”以及“奉行以美国工人为优先的贸易政策”。此外，拜登多次在推特谴责了中国的“人权”、“自由”以及香港问题。

拜登亦数次公开透露出联合他国牵制中国的政策倾向：“美国及其伙伴构成世界上一半以上的GDP，如果我们团结一致，中国将无法承受压力。我们应该动员我们的盟友来迎接这一挑战，而不是把他们赶走”。

拜登如何cue中国

2019年5月1日竞选演讲

#对中国的评价

I mean, you know, they’re not bad folks, folks. But guess what? They’re not competition for us.

2019年6月施政纲领

#气候问题 #一带一路

Stop China from subsidizing coal exports and outsourcing carbon pollution. Biden will rally a united front of nations to hold China accountable to high environmental standards in its Belt and Road Initiative infrastructure projects, so that China can’t outsource pollution to other countries.

2019年6月施政纲领

#交通运输

Two centuries ago, the first great railroad expansion drove our industrial revolution. Today, the U.S. is lagging behind Europe and China in rail safety and speed.

2019年6月施政纲领

#制造业 #清洁能源

Unfortunately, today the Trump Administration is allowing America to fall behind in the clean energy race for the future. In 2017, China invested $3 in renewable energy for every $1 in America, giving China an edge on the technologies of tomorrow that will generate well-paying jobs.

2019年6月11日竞选演讲

#贸易 #高新技术 #对中国的评价

We are in a competition with China, they are a serious challenge to us, and in some areas a real threat. While Trump is pursuing a damaging and erratic trade war，China is investing in “technologies of the future.”

2019年6月12日推特

#贸易

When it comes to President Trump’s tariff war with China, one thing is clear: America’s farmers and manufacturers are getting crushed – no one knows that better than Iowa.

To Trump, the people getting hurt are just pawns in his game.

2019年7月11日竞选演讲

#农业 #特朗普

President Trump may think he’s being tough on China. All that he’s delivered as a consequence of that is American farmers, manufacturers and consumers losing and paying more.

2019年7月28日推特

#农业

……As president, I'd join together with our allies & stand up to China to ensure our policies work for our farmers.

2019年10月9日竞选演讲

#回应特朗普

China was the third foreign power that we know of that [Trump] has asked in clear, unmistakable language to intervene on his behalf in the democratic proceedings of the United States.

2019年11月21日推特

#朝鲜

Under President Trump, the North Korean nuclear threat is getting worse, not better. As President, Joe Biden will coordinate closely with our allies and hold China accountable for not putting pressure on North Korea.

2019年12月20日推特

#西方联盟

The United States and our partners make up more than half of global GDP. If we stand together, China won’t be able to withstand the pressure. We should be mobilizing our allies to meet this challenge, not driving them away.

2020年1月17日接受纽约时报专访

#贸易 #西方联盟

I would get the rest of our allies in the world to join us in dealing with sanctions against China.We make up 15 percent of the world’s economy. There’s another 25 percent that are allies that we have dissed already. They’re wondering who the hell —where we are.

2020年2月17日党内辩论

#施政纲领

I got criticized by some, including in this among the 800 people running for the nomination, for saying I wasn’t worried about China. I’m not worried about China if we do our job, if we invest in our people.

2020年2月20日党内辩论

#施政纲领 #新冠疫情

I would be on the phone with China and making it clear, “We are going to need to be in your country. You have to be open. You have to be clear. We have to know what’s going on. We have to be there with you,” and insist on it.

2020年2月20日党内辩论

#施政纲领 #一带一路 #能源环保

Make it clear when you call them to Washington in the first 100 days, “If you continue, you will suffer severe consequences because the rest of the world will impose tariffs on everything you’re selling because you are undercutting the entire economy.”

2020年2月26日 CNN live

#新冠疫情

What I would do were I president now, I would not be taking China's word for it.

I would insist that China allow our scientists in to make a hard determination of how it started, where it's from, how far along it is. Because that is not happening now.

2020年2月26日党内辩论

#地缘政治 #朝鲜 #日韩

…… I would be reassigning the relationship between Japan and South Korea, and I would make it clear. I would make it clear to China.We are going to continue to move closer to make sure that we can in fact prevent China, prevent North Korea, from launching missiles, to take them down. And if we don’t, why am I stopping? No one else stops.

2020年3月21日推特

#新冠疫情

In times of crisis, the American people deserve a president who tells them the truth and takes responsibility. Donald Trump has not been that president. For months, he falsely told us we had nothing to worry about while praising China’s response for managing the coronavirus.

2020年5月20日圆桌

#知识产权 #科技

China was stealing intellectual information. China was engaged in cyber warfare. China was insisting that a business to do business in China had to have a 51% ownership in China. There are the things China was doing.

2020年7月9日竞选演讲

#贸易 #知识产权

The Chinese are spending multiple billions of dollars trying to own the technology of the future while we sit with our thumb in our ear. That means fighting unfair trade practices, curbing the threat of intellectual property by countries like China. America can’t sit in the sidelines in a race to the future.

2020年7月14日竞选演讲

#制造业 #新能源汽车

The U.S. auto industry and its deep banks of suppliers will step up, expanding capacity so the United States, not China leads the world in clean vehicle production.

2020年7月17日晚宴发言

#竞选

China and others are engaged as well in activities that are designed for us to lose confidence in the outcome.

2020年7月22日与SEIU的圆桌会议

#新冠疫情

He（Trump）’s blaming everything on China. He’s blaming everything on the Chinese. He blaming everything, and people don’t make a distinction as you well know, from a South Korean and someone from Beijing, they make no distinction. It’s Asian.And he’s just using it as a wedge.

2020年7月30日接受美国教师联合会在线采访时发表讲话

#新冠疫情

We have to reengage with the world so we’re ready to prevent the next outbreak. Walls don’t stop diseases.We need to work together.

2020年8月6日施政纲领

#知识产权 #贸易

We’re going after China in the wrong way. China is stealing intellectual property. China’s conditioning being able to do business in China based on whether or not you have 51% Chinese ownership. That’s got to end.

2020年8月20日竞选演讲

#制造业#新冠疫情

We’ll make the medical supplies and protective equipment that our country needs, and we’ll make them here in America,so we will never again be at the mercy of China or other foreign countries in order to protect our own people.

2020年9月9日竞选演讲

#制造业 #国内产业链 #新能源汽车

With the government providing the demand and support to retool factories that are suggesting they’re struggling to compete, the United States automobile industry will set up expanding the capacity in the United States, not China, to lead the world in clean energy vehicles.

2020年10月12日竞选演讲

#贸易 #美国工人

I promise you I will stand up to China’s trade abuses, and I will invest in the American worker, because I know no one, nobody can outcompete an American worker when they’ve gotten a fair shot, nobody in the world.

2020年10月22日第二场总统选举电视辩论

#贸易 #西方联盟

What I’d make China do is play by the international rules, not like he（Trump） has done. He has caused the deficit of the China to go up, not down, with China, up, not down.

We need to be having the rest of our friends with us saying to China, “These are the rules. You play by them, or you’re going to pay the price for not paying by them economically.”

2020年10月22日第二场总统选举电视辩论

#气候问题

I’m going to rejoin Paris Accord and make China abide by what they agreed to.

2020年10月22日世界日报署名发表

#台湾 #新冠疫情

我們應對中國的方式，會聚焦增強美國競爭力，再興國內優勢，並更新我們在海外的聯盟與領導力。我們將在符合美國利益的領域與中國合作，包括公共衛生和氣候變遷。

And our approach to China will focus on boosting American competitiveness, revitalizing our strengths at home, and renewing our alliances and leadership abroad. We'll work to collaborate with China when it's in our interest, including on public health and climate change.

（繁体中文和英语双语发表）

2020年10月30日竞选演讲

#制造业 #农业

I’ll mobilize a true international effort to stop China’s abuses so we can strengthen manufacturing and farming in Iowa and across the country.

2020年11月2日竞选演讲

#制造业 #汽车 #就业

It’s going to mean one million, according to the experts, one million new good paying auto jobs in the automobile industry alone. Folks, if we don’t act China’s going to own the market. China’s going to own it all.

资料收集：李江梅蔡静远申屠泥林子璐张司钰

马冰莹阳洋马雨筱旭姚思妤郭可树江婧怡邓海滢

文案：李江梅杨凯文何京蔚葛书润

可视化：姚思妤韩梦佳肖潇顾璐杰

美编：马雨筱旭

统筹：方洁

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