COVID 19 AND CHINA : NO STOPPING OF THE GIANT

在中国疫情防控取得重大战略成果之际，全国“两会”开幕了，吸引了世界各国人士的目光。非洲多国主流媒体、专家学者也十分关注中国“两会”。  

  5月17日，南非发行量最大的阿非利卡语报纸Rapport整版刊发了浙师大非洲研究院学者、南非资深外交家、前驻外大使格特·格勒布勒的评论文章，文章分析中国召开全国两会后的经济态势和对外政策，表示期待中国在全球治理中扮演更重要角色。文章在南非产生了广泛影响。

  《经济日报》5月21日以《南非专家学者关注中国两会——中国抗击疫情成效令人瞩目》为题，央视新闻客户端5月22日以《中国两会吸引非洲各界目光 他们关注哪些议题》为题，分别编译报道了格特大使的评论文章。

  为方便读者，本公众号特编发格特大使在Rapport上发表的评论文章英文版如下：

 COVID 19 AND CHINA : NO STOPPING OF THE GIANT 

COVID 19 AND TRUMP MUST THINK TWICE BEFORE WRITING OFF CHINA !

By Ambassador Gert Grobler: Senior Researcher of Institute of African Studies, Zhejiang Normal University in Jinhua, China.

The outbreak of Covid 19 has changed the world in many respects. It has also led to a new era at international relations level with far reaching implications for the global geopolitical, economic and security situation. 

Given the significant and growing role that China played on the international political and economic scene, prior to the outbreak of COVID-19, there is currently worldwide speculation on what the implications of Covid 19 would be for China. What will be the impact of Covid 19 on China's domestic political and economic situation as well as on the country's future role internationally, including its relations with Africa? 

DOMESTIC

The Chinese people overwhelmingly support President Xi Jinping and the government and they believe that he should be credited for the effective and resolute manner in which Covid 19 was contained in China.

One senses a deep seated unity, pride en unashamed patriotism among the Chinese people which further consolidated President Xi Jinping's strong position as the leader of the Communist Party of China.

In fact, the most important event in the Chinese political calendar, the "Two Sessions" which entails the twin plenum of the National People's Congress and the China Peoples Political Consultative Conference, the topmost political advisory body to the government, will take place in Beijing, as from 22 May 2020.

This very important event will take place against the background of Covid 19 and significantly changed domestic and international realities.

During the event there will be urgent and wide ranging discussion on political economic and social matters as well as international relations. It can be expected that President Xi Jinping would place special emphasis on his government's policy of "Socialism with Chinese Characteristics" with its inclusive "people centered/people first" approach that has contributed greatly to China's phenomenal political, economic and social progress and achievements. It can therefore be expected that President Xi Jinping and the CPC will emerge from these, deliberations stronger than ever before.

ECONOMIC

On the economic front, Covid 19 had a serious negative impact on the economy, which already showed signs of slowing down, prior to the onset of the virus due to external factors .

While there are observers who are predicting that China 's growth rate of 6,1 in 2019, could drop to anything between 1 to 3 percent in 2020, due to the significant drop in consumer spending and industrial production as well as declining demand from overseas countries particularly in the West, the Chinese government remains optimistic, that by and large, China still has made progress towards the achievement of its broad political, economic and social goals for 2020.

President Xi Jinping will address these issues during the upcoming important "Two Sessions" taking place as from 22 May in Beijing.

On China's economic performance, there are many observers who point out, based on China's phenomenal economic growth over the last few decades ( the size of the economy doubled over the last decade! ), the inherent robustness of the economy, the introduction of sensible fiscal and monetary policies and the dynamic technology/digital sector, combined with the expected gradual recovery of the global economy, that the speed of the recovery of China's economy will come as a surprise to many!

This is a opinion I entirely share!

It is against this background, that the current attempts by Trump and others to initiate a major shift of the economic supply chain away from China, it is unlikely to make any substantial progress. The strength and the existing integral role of China's economy in the global economic arena, would serve as a disincentive to many countries from following Trump's counterproductive approach.

An important factor in future global economic growth is the the ongoing trade/tariff "war" between China and the USA which is accompanied by the current deterioration of bilateral relations between the two countries.

President Trump and his cohorts continue to launch unjustified attacks on China as regards " China's handling of Covid 19 etc" with the unfortunate result that China has now become a " political football " in the domestic affairs of the USA. It is generally said in the international community that the reason for Trump's unfair attacks on China, is to conceal his own glaring mistakes which failed to protect the USA citizens from Covid 19 and also, of course, to try and boost his chances in the upcoming presidential elections.

There is, in fact, a growing frustration and despair on the Chinese side as regards the uncertainty as to whether Trump has the real intention to pursue the implementation of Phase 1 of the trade/ tariffs agreement, agreed upon earlier, which holds significant benefits for both sides and which should have kicked in, early in January 2020.

The question remains whether Trump has the "political will" to proceed with the implementation of the agreement as well as continued discussions on trade matters, due to a recent Pew poll in the USA which reflected that 66 percent of all Americans hold "negative views" of China which must unfortunately be ascribed to the ongoing unfounded attacks against China made by Trump and the USA Congress. This is a shortsighted approach by Trump, as it is generally stated by observers that lack of progress on the trade talks, would cause considerably more economic headaches for the USA than for China.

INTERNATIONAL

The international community overwhelmingly gave credit to Chinese government for its efforts to contain Covid 19 in China.

With the situation regarding Covid 19 now rapidly normalizing in the country, China is very active and admirably supporting approximately 130 countries around the world with medical equipment and advice in their battle against Covid 19.

The Chinese government and private enterprises are currently also busy supporting Africa, where Covid 19 is now increasingly spreading, on a big scale with comprehensive aid packages and advice.

As regards, the issue of the proposed "investigation into the origin of Covid 19 and related issues" as advocated by the USA and others, it can be expected that the Chinese government may agree to this but subject to the condition that it is conducted in an "independent manner" under the auspices of the World Health Organisation and without any notion of "presumption of guilt" by China and also once the battle against Covid 19 has further progressed which should be the main priority now.

I agree with observers who argue that "Covid 19 will help China to enhance its role as a responsible world leader". In fact, China through its responsible actions, have already, even prior to Covid 19, moved into the global leadership "vacuum", left behind by leaders like Presidents Trump, Bolsanaro etc..

It is a fact that China's constructive approach on burning international issues such as global peace and stability, development, climate change and support for multilateralism, is much closer aligned to that of Europe, Asia and Africa, than the erratic and unpredictable policies of Trump on these key issues.

Covid 19 emerged, at a time when China was making increasing progress with its political and diplomatic acceptance in the international community as a "responsible world leader".

It is against this background, that it is doubtful whether the attempts by the USA and others "to sue China for compensation as a result of Covid 19" will succeed. Apart from a number of international law obstacles, it is a fact that there is no great appetite on the part of many leading countries in Europe, Asia and among international organisations for this counterproductive and unjust initiative. It is also highly unlikely that SA and the African Union would support it.

Given the significant role that China is playing in the global economy as well as the ongoing constructive role that China is adopting in the multilateral arena and global affairs, it can be expected, once the worst of Covid 19 has passed, that the international community will increasingly reach out to China, to further consolidate and promote bilateral and multilateral cooperation. 

CHINA AND AFRICA

Despite the recent incidents about "alleged racism against Africans in China" which the western media tried to exploit to China's detriment, but which was subsequently resolved between China and the AU through constructive dialogue, it can be expected that the excellent cooperation between China and Africa will continue to gain momentum, particularly at this juncture where Covid 19 is bound to have a serious negative impact on the economy of the continent. The growing China and Africa friendship and cooperation will undoubtedly be an agenda point at the" Two Sessions" plenum in Beijing where a strong endorsement and affirmation will be given to the continued China and Africa cooperation and friendship in the context of the Forum on China/Africa Cooperation( FOCAC ) in the foreseeable future.

China is already Africa's most important economic partner and largest trade partner. Total trade has increased from 10 billion USD in 2000 to 204 billion USD in 2018. The economic as well as people to people cooperation between China and Africa will also be significantly enhanced in the context of the exciting and commendable Belt and Road Initiative.

Despite many prophets of doom, particularly in the West, it is predicted that China will overcome all the challenges, flowing from Covid 19, through its typical determined, focused and industrious and hard work approach and that China will not only resume its key role in global political and economic affairs but further strengthen it in the years to come, towards a shared destiny of mankind.

编辑 | 孙崇斌

审核 | 非洲研究院科研办

浙师大非洲研究院抗疫专题荟萃链接：

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关于我们

浙江师范大学非洲研究院（IASZNU）是在教育部、外交部支持下于2007年成立的中国高校首个综合性、实体性非洲研究院，经十余年发展已成为有广泛影响力的中国非洲研究机构与国家对非事务智库，成为国内首个拥有非洲研究“长江学者”特聘教授的学术机构，是教育部区域和国别研究基地、教育部浙江师范大学中国南非人文交流研究中心、外交部“中非联合研究交流计划指导委员会指导单位”和“中非智库10+10合作伙伴计划”中方智库、教育部“中非高校20+20合作计划”单位、浙江省2011协同创新中心、浙江省新型重点专业智库。

      近年来，非洲研究院自2016年以来连续第四次入选《全球智库报告》“最佳区域研究中心”（大学附属），还先后入选中国社科院"中国智库综合评价核心智库榜单”、“南京大学中国智库索引（CTTI）”中国高校智库百强A+、《2018年中国智库报告》高校智库（特色）系统影响力排行榜第4、《中华智库影响力报告（2018）》高校智库影响力排行榜第9，等。

About us

Established in 2007, the Institute of African Studies at Zhejiang Normal University, is the first comprehensive and substantive African Research Institute based in China’s universities. In the decade since its founding, the Institute has remained focused on both producing influential academic output, as well as cultivating scholars in African Studies from both China and Africa, gaining reputation as a highly influential academic institution both at home and abroad. At the onset of its second decade, the Institute of African Studies intends to move towards a more regionalized, nationalized, distinctive and internationally oriented direction in its research. At the same time, the institute will continue to encourage young and upcoming scholars to conduct research, and provide them with the necessary support.

Qui sommes-nous

L’IASZNU a été fondée en Septembre 2007 sous les auspices du Ministère de l’Éducation (MOE) et le Ministère des Affaires Étrangères (MFA). Parmi les Universités chinoises, c’est le premier Institut complet créé spécialement pour les études africaines. Après plus de 10 années de développement, l’IASZNU est devenue un Institut d’études et un Think Tanks très influent sur les affaires africaines en Chine qui possède un « Savant du Chang Jiang » des études africaines. Il est le Think Tanks chinois sur le  « Plan Think Tanks du Partenariat Chine-Afrique 10 + 10 » et un des établissements guides sur le « Plan de Recherche Conjointe et d’Echange Chine-Afrique » du Ministère des Affaires Étrangères. Il est sélectionné par le Ministère de l’Éducation pour « La Coopération Universitaire Chine-Afrique 20+20 », en tant que base principale pour des études du continent et des études spécifiques de pays. Il est également sélectionné par la Province du Zhejiang comme le Centre d’Innovation Collaborative 2011, la base de recherche de la Philosophie et des Sciences Sociales dans la province de Zhejiang. L’IASZNU a été classé parmi les meilleurs Think Tanks (affiliés à une Université) au monde pendant deux années consécutives, en 2016 et en 2017, par le Global Think Tanks Index publié annuellement par la Pennsylvanie Université. En 2018, l’Institut a été classé comme l’un des meilleurs Think Tanks affilié à une université en Chine avec le classement A + du système de classement chinois (CTTI).