聚焦前沿|顶刊JM、JMR和新技术营销文章合辑；直播回放：风雨之后，数据与市场研究、品牌建设、纺织服装和老字号振兴，路在何方？
JM1
广告与研发对破产生存的影响：一把双刃剑
The Impact of Advertising and R&D on Bankruptcy Survival: A Double-Edged Sword
Jindal Niket. Journal of Marketing; Vol.84,Iss.5, (Sep 2020): 22-40.
Abstract
Advertising and research and development (R&D) benefit firms by increasing sales and shareholder value. However, when a firm is in bankruptcy, the cumulative effects of its past advertising and R&D can be a double-edged sword. On the one hand, they increase the firm’s expected future cash flow, which increases the likelihood that the bankruptcy court will decide the firm can survive. On the other hand, they increase the liquidation value of the firm’s assets, which decreases the likelihood that the bankruptcy court will decide that the firm can survive. The author argues that the ability of advertising and R&D to either increase or decrease bankruptcy survival is contingent on the influence that the firm’s suppliers have, relative to other creditors, on the bankruptcy court’s decision. Advertising and R&D increase (decrease) bankruptcy survival when suppliers have a high (low) level of influence. Empirical analyses, conducted on 1,504 bankruptcies, show that advertising (R&D) increases bankruptcy survival when at least 35%−38% (18%−21%) of the bankrupt firm’s debt has been borrowed from suppliers, whereas it decreases bankruptcy survival below this point. Out-of-sample machine learning validation shows that the ability to spandict whether a bankrupt customer will survive is substantially improved by considering the firm’s advertising and R&D.
广告和研发（R&D）通过增加销售额和股东价值，使企业受益。然而，当一家公司破产时，其过去的广告和研发产生的累积效应可能是一把双刃剑。一方面，它们增加公司预期未来现金流，从而增加破产法院判决该公司继续生存的可能性。另一方面，它们增加公司资产的清算价值，从而降低破产法院判决该公司能够生存的可能性。作者指出，广告和研发能否增加或减少破产生存，取决于该公司的供应商相对于其他债权人而言，对破产法院的裁决产生的影响。当供应商具有较高（低）影响力时，广告和研发会增加（降低）破产生存率。对 1,504 起破产公司进行的实证分析表明，广告（研发）提高破产存活率，当破产公司债务至少 35%-38%是从供应商借来的时候，而低于18%-21%，则会降低破产存活率。抽样机器学习验证表明，通过考虑公司的广告和研发，可以大大提高预测破产客户是否能够生存的能力。
JM2
放大、缩小：产品视频中的动画移动速度如何影响尺寸评估和产品评估
Speed Up, Size Down: How Animated Movement Speed in Product Videos Influences Size Assessment and Product Evaluation
He, Jia; Kyu, Kim B; Lin, Ge. Journal of Marketing; Chicago Vol. 84, Iss. 5, (Sep 2020): 100-116.
Abstract
Digital ads often display video content in which immobile products are presented as if they are moving spontaneously. Six studies demonstrate a speed-based scaling effect, such that consumers estimate the size of an immobile product to be smaller when it is animated to move faster in videos, due to the inverse size–speed association they have learned from the domain of animate agents (e.g., animals, humans). Supporting a cross-domain knowledge transfer model of learned size–speed association, this speed-based scaling effect is (1) reduced when consumers perceive a product’s movement pattern as less similar to animate agents’ movement patterns, (2) reversed when a positive size–speed association in the base domain of animate agents is made accessible, (3) attenuated for consumers who have more knowledge about the target product domain, and (4) mitigated when explicit product size information is highlighted. Furthermore, by decreasing assessed product size, fast animated movement speed can either positively or negatively influence willingness to pay, depending on consumers’ size preferences.
数字广告显示视频内容时，不可移动的产品通常显示为如同它们自发移动一样。六项研究显示了基于速度的缩放效果，当视频中动画移动速度更快时，由于他们从动画代理（例如动物、人类）领域中学到的大小-速度反向关联，消费者估计不移动产品的尺寸会更小。基于已知大小-速度关联的跨领域知识转移模型，这一速度的缩放效应：（1）当消费者认为产品的移动模式与动画代理的移动模式不太相似时，将会降低；(2) 当基本域中的动画代理达到正大小-速度关联时，则相反；(3)对目标产品域了解更多的消费者进行减弱；(4) 突出显式产品尺寸信息时缓解。此外，通过减少评估的产品尺寸，快速动画移动速度可能会对付款意愿产生积极或负面影响，具体取决于消费者的尺寸偏好。
JM3
容忍和管理失败：对顾客再获得管理的组织视角
Vomberg Arnd; Homburg, Christian; Gwinner Olivia. Journal of Marketing; Vol. 84, Iss. 5, (Sep 2020): 117-136.
Abstract
Although reacquiring customers can lead to beneficial outcomes, reacquisition processes are often unpleasant for employees, who may be required to admit and address failures. Because many organizational environments reward success and punish failure, companies need to understand how to create an organizational environment that stimulates customer reacquisitions. This study investigates the impact of failure-tolerant cultures and formal reacquisition policies on successful customer reacquisition management. Drawing on organizational design theory and psychological ownership theory, the authors find that failure-tolerant cultures have an inverted U-shaped effect on reacquisition performance because moderate failure tolerance increases reacquisition attempts while not inducing more failures or increasing their severity. Formal reacquisition policies, in contrast, have a positive linear relationship. Notably, formal reacquisition policies do not conflict with failure-tolerant cultures but enhance the beneficial effects of failure tolerance on reacquisition performance; formal reacquisition policies provide guidance for reacquisition attempts that failure-tolerant cultures inspire. Finally, results show that customer reacquisition performance is positively related to overall firm financial performance, a finding that emphasizes the managerial and organizational-level importance of reacquisition management.
尽管再获得客户可能会带来有益的结果，但再获得过程对员工来说往往是不愉快的，他们可能需要承认和指出失败。由于许多组织环境都奖励成功并惩罚失败，因此公司需要了解如何创建一个鼓励客户再获得的组织环境。本研究探讨了容错文化和正式的再获得政策对成功的客户再获得管理的影响。基于组织设计理论和心理所有权理论，作者发现，容错文化对再获得具有反倒U形效应，因为适度的失效容忍能够增加再获得尝试，而不会引起更多的失败或增加严重性。相比之下，正式的再获得政策对再获得绩效具有积极的线性关系。值得注意的是，正式的再获得政策并不与容错文化发生冲突，而是增强了失败容忍度对再获得业绩的有益影响；正式的再获得政策为容错文化激发的重获得尝试提供了指导。最后，结果表明，客户再获得业绩与整体公司财务业绩有积极的关系，这一结果强调了再获得管理在管理层和组织层面的重要性。
JMR4
网络评论的两极化：流行率、驱动因素和影响
The Polarity of Online Reviews: Prevalence, Drivers and Implications
Schoenmueller Verena; Netzer Oded; Stahl Florian. JMR, Journal of Marketing Research; Chicago Vol. 57, Iss. 5, (Oct 2020): 853-877.
Abstract
In this research, the authors investigate the prevalence, robustness, and possible reasons underlying the polarity of online review distributions, with the majority of the reviews at the positive end of the rating scale, a few reviews in the midrange, and some reviews at the negative end of the scale. Compiling a large data set of online reviews—over 280 million reviews from 25 major online platforms—the authors find that most reviews on most platforms exhibit a high degree of polarity, but the platforms vary in the degree of polarity on the basis of how selective customers are in reviewing products on the platform. Using cross-platform and multimethod analyses, including secondary data, experiments, and survey data, the authors empirically confirm polarity self-selection, described as the higher tendency of consumers with extreme evaluations to provide a review as an important driver of the polarity of review distributions. In addition, they describe and demonstrate that polarity self-selection and the polarity of the review distribution reduce the informativeness of online reviews.
在本研究中，作者调查了在线评论分布两极化的流行率、稳健性和可能的原因，其中大多数评论处于评级等级的正端，一些评论处于中端，一些评论处于负端。编译了大量在线评论数据集（来自25个主要在线平台的超过2.8亿条评论），作者发现大多数平台上的评论都具有高度的两极化，但户在平台上评价产品时的选择性，导致的两极化程度会有所不同。利用跨平台和多方法分析（包括二手数据、实验和调查数据），作者实证证实了自我选择两极化，被描述为消费者对两极化评价的较高倾向，作为评价分布两极化的一个重要驱动因素。此外，他们还描述并证明自我选择两极化和评论分布的两极化降低了在线评论的信息性。
【新技术与营销专题论文1】
机器与人类：人工智能聊天机器人的披露对顾客购买行为的影响
Machines vs. Humans: The Impact of Artificial Intelligence Chatbot Disclosure on Customer Purchases
Luo X , Tong S , Fang Z , et al. Frontiers: Machines vs. Humans: The Impact of Artificial Intelligence Chatbot Disclosure on Customer Purchases[J]. Marketing Science, 2019, 38(6):937-947.
Abstract
Empowered by artificial intelligence (AI), chatbots are surging as new technologies with both business potential and customer pushback. This study exploits field experiment data on more than 6,200 customers who are randomized to receive highly structured outbound sales calls from chatbots or human workers. Results suggest that undisclosed chatbots are as effective as proficient workers and four times more effective than inexperienced workers in engendering customer purchases. However, a disclosure of chatbot identity before the machine–customer conversation reduces purchase rates by more than79.7%. Additional analyses find that these results are robust to nonresponse bias and hang-ups, and the chatbot disclosure substantially decreases call length. Exploration of the mechanisms reveals that when customers know the conversational partner is not a human, they are curt and purchase less because they perceive the disclosed bot as less knowledgeable and less empathetic. The negative disclosure effect seems to be driven by a subjective human perception against machines, despite the objective competence of AI chatbots. Fortunately, such negative impact can be mitigated by a late disclosure timing strategy and customer prior AI experience. These findings offer useful implications for chatbot applications, customer targeting, and advertising in conversational commerce.
摘要
在人工智能（AI）的加持下，聊天机器人作为一种既有商业潜力又有客户回馈的新技术正在迅猛发展。本研究分析了来自6200多名被试的实地实验数据，这些被试们被随机分为两组，分别接到聊天机器人或工作人员的高度结构化的销售电话。研究结果表明，未披露的聊天机器人和熟练员工在促进消费者购买上拥有同样的效率，且比没有经验的员工效率高四倍。但是，若在机器人和被试通话之前，披露了机器人的身份，则顾客购买率降低幅度会超过79.7%。进一步分析发现，上述结果在未回应偏差和挂断的情况下是稳健的，并且机器人的披露会显著减少电话时长。该结果机制揭示了当顾客知道谈话对象不是人类时，由于他们认为机器人掌握的知识较少且同理心较弱，故会表现得更草率且其购买量也会减少。这种披露的负面效应受人类主观感知的驱动，而非智能聊天机器人的客观能力。幸运的是，延迟披露时间策略和客户先前的人工智能经验可以减轻这种负面影响。这些发现为聊天机器人应用程序、客户定位和会话商务中的广告提供了有用的启示。
【新技术与营销专题论文2】
一线电子人乐意为您效劳：人类增强技术如何影响顾客在零售，销售和服务场景的体验
Frontline Cyborgs at Your Service: How Human Enhancement Technologies Affect Customer Experiences in Retail, Sales, and Service Settings
Grewal D , Kroschke M ,Mende M , et al. Frontline Cyborgs at Your Service: How Human EnhancementTechnologies Affect Customer Experiences in Retail, Sales, and ServiceSettings[J]. Journal of Interactive Marketing, 2020.
Abstract
Human enhancement technology (HET) is advancing a host of industries, yet it remains limited in its retail, sales, and service applications. Soon, however, these technologies appear likely to have notable impacts on customer experiences. To address their potential influences on customer–employee interactions and the customer experience, this article leverages insights about the human–robot continuum to predict that a mid-range approach may be realistic for retail, sales, and service encounters (cf. pure robot range), at least in the near term. Furthermore, the authors detail the likelihood of both beneficial (elevated warmth and competence) and detrimental (dehumanization) mediating effects of HET on customer experiences. They also propose four moderators: information about the HET, gain/loss frames, persuasion ability, and strategic fit between HET and firm orientations. These insights suggest various implications and research directions pertaining to HET, as well as ways that these technologies might be used effectively in different industries.
摘要
人类增强技术正在推进许多行业的发展，但在零售，销售和服务的应用方面仍然有局限性。然而，很快，这些科技似乎很可能会对顾客体验产生显著影响。为了解决这些科技对于顾客与员工间的互动和顾客体验潜在影响，本文借助人—机统一体的视角预测人机各半的方法对于解决零售，销售和服务方面的问题是有可能实现的（参见纯机器人的情况），至少在短期是这样。作者进一步详述了人类增强技术可能通过有益（温暖和能力增强）和有害（无人化）的中介作用对顾客体验产生影响。他们同样提出了四个调节变量：关于人类增强技术的信息，获利损失框架，说服能力以及人类增强技术和公司定位的战略匹配。这些见解提出了关于人类增强技术的各种影响和研究方向，以及在不同行业有效使用这些技术的方法。
【新技术与营销专题论文3】
用新技术转变客户体验
Transformingthe Customer Experience Through New Technologies
Hoyer, W.，Kroschke, M., Schmitt, B., Kraume, K., and Shankar, V. Journal of Interactive Marketing[J], 2020, 51 (Aug): 57-71.
Abstract
New technologies such as Internet of Things (IoT), Augmented Reality (AR), Virtual Reality (VR), Mixed Reality (MR), virtual assistants, chatbots, and robots, which are typically powered by Artificial Intelligence (AI), are dramatically transforming the customer experience. In this paper, we offer a fresh typology of new technologies powered by AI and propose a new framework for understanding the role of new technologies on the customer/shopper journey. Specifically, we discuss the impact and implications of these technologies on each broad stage of the shopping journey (pre-transaction, transaction, and post-transaction) and advance a new conceptualization for managing these new AI technologies along customer experience dimensions to create experiential value. We discuss future research ideas emanating from our framework and outline interdisciplinary research avenues.
摘要
得益于人工智能，诸如物联网（IoT）、增强现实（AR）、虚拟现实（VR）、混合现实（MR）、虚拟助理、聊天机器人和机器人等新技术正在显著改变客户体验。在这篇论文中，我们提供了一个由人工智能驱动的新技术的全新分类方法，并提出了一个新的框架来理解新技术在顾客/购物者购买阶段中的作用。具体来说，我们讨论了这些技术对购物过程中每个阶段（交易前、交易中和交易后）的影响和应用，并提出了一个新的概念，用于管理这些新的人工智能技术在顾客体验方面的应用，以创造体验价值。从此框架出发，我们讨论了未来的研究思路，并概述了跨学科的研究途径。
【新技术与营销专题论文4】
勇敢的新世界？人工智能和客户关系管理
BraveNew World? On AI and the Management of Customer Relationships
A, Barak Libai , et al. Brave New World? On AI and the Management ofCustomer Relationships[J]. Journal of Interactive Marketing, 2020, 51:44-56.
Abstract
In light of the emerging discourse on AI systems' effect on society, whose perception swings widely between utopian and dystopian, we conduct herein a critical analysis of how artificial intelligence (AI) affects the essential nature of customer relationship management (CRM). To do so, we survey the AI capabilities that will transform CRM into AI-CRM and examine how the transformation will influence customer acquisition, development, and retention. We highlight in particular how AI-CRM's improving ability to predict customer lifetime value will generate an inexorable rise in implementing adapted treatment of customers, leading to greater customer prioritization and service discrimination in markets. We further consider the consequences for firms and the challenges to regulators.
摘要
有关近期兴起的人工智能对社会影响的著述，其观点在乌托邦和反乌托邦¹之间广泛地摇摆不定。在本文中，我们对人工智能如何影响客户关系管理的本质进行了批判性分析。为此，我们调查了人工智能能力，它能把客户关系管理转换成人工智能客户关系管理，并且研究了这个转换如何影响客户获取，发展和留存。我们特别强调了人工智能客户关系管理具有提高预测客户终身价值的能力，以及该能力在应用于差异化对待顾客方面将势不可挡。这将会导致更多的优先权和市场中的服务歧视。我们还进一步考虑了这对于公司的影响和对监管者的挑战。
注释1: 持有乌托邦观点的专家认为智能机器的能力会让员工有更多休闲时间，可以选择不工作，并且享受更长的寿命。持有反乌托邦的专家认为这会导致大量失业的可能，这对处于相对不利地位的人群尤其可能，他们是担心机器人会从人类手中接管。此外还会导致贫富差异的加剧，因为社会中不富裕的人是最后享受到人工智能好处的群体。
直播速递：【商院云讲堂】
风雨之后，数据服务与市场研究行业路在何方？
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往期回顾
第五期请到了来自北京大学光华管理学院的符国群教授，华东师范大学经济与管理学部副主任何佳讯教授，华东理工大学商学院专业学位教育中心主任侯丽敏副教授，顶级群落商业创意机构创始人周峰先生，同主持人华东理工大学商学院景奉杰教授一起，就疫情之下国内消费者观念与行为的改变、品牌的核心竞争力、打造企业的品牌战略等热点问题分享了自己的观点，并展开深入讨论。点击视频，查看第五期精彩内容集锦。
第六期请到了上海创意产业协会副会长、来自东华大学旭日工商管理学院的沈蕾教授，对外经济贸易大学国际商学院高充彦副教授，上海沙涓时装科技有限公司董事总经理郭秀玲女士，美国蓝岭家纺集团中国事业部CEO夏培照先生，同主持人华东理工大学商学院景奉杰教授一起，就国内服装业和纺织品现状、舆情的不确定性以及消费习惯变化等热点问题展开了深入的探讨。点击视频，查看第六期精彩内容集锦。
第七期请到了来自复旦大学的李天纲教授，华东理工大学艺术设计与传媒学院研究员倪海郡，中国香料香精化妆品工业协会双创专委会秘书长王茁，华东理工大学商学院郭毅教授，同主持人华东理工大学商学院景奉杰教授一起，就国内老字号品牌现状、背后所包含的文化价值、创新途径等热点展开了深入的探讨，帮助观众们详细地了解当下市场的需求。点击视频，查看第七期精彩内容集锦。
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中国高等院校市场学研究会简介
中国高等院校市场学研究会(Chinese Marketing Association of Universities，英文缩写CMAU)成立于1984年元月，是经中华人民共和国民政部批准，由全国各高等院校从事市场营销学教学、研究的专家、学者及企事业单位自愿组成的非营利性学术团体。学会的主管单位是中华人民共和国教育部，现任会长是北京大学光华管理学院符国群教授。
本会宗旨
团结市场营销理论与实务界人士，遵守国家法律、法规和政策，本着“百花齐放、百家争鸣”的原则，组织各种形式的研讨和交流，为创造、传播新的市场营销知识，为繁荣中国市场营销学术研究，为提升我国企事业单位营销管理水平做出贡献。
业务范围
通过定期（如年会）或不定期（如不同专题的研讨会）的形式，为全国高校从事市场营销教学、研究的专业人员提供交流的机会；
通过出版物，为全国高校从事市场营销教学、研究的专业人员和社会各界的有关人士提供发表研究成果的园地；
组建全国性的市场营销教学、研究案例库、资料库，建立全国性的市场营销研究信息网络；
通过各种方式为社会各界培训市场营销教学、市场营销管理实践人才；
以各种方式为企业界及其他部门提供市场营销相关的专业援助，如咨询等；
收集国内外的市场营销理论的研究动态，与国外有关市场营销研究的机构、团体建立不同形式的合作、交流关系。
学会秘书处
通讯地址：100871海淀区颐和园路5号北京大学光华1号楼
联系电话：010-62757952
Email地址：cmau@cmau.org.cn