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1. 布隆伯格哈佛商学院毕业典礼致辞
   

Sometimes we underreact and in other situations we overreact, and for a reason. Facing the coronavirus, China, Japan, Europe and America all struggled, although for different reasons.

出于某种原因，有时我们反应迟缓，而在其他情况下，我们会反应过度。面对冠状病毒疫情，中国、日本、欧洲和美国都有过艰难时刻，原因却不尽相同。

China worried about sounding a false alarm and causing panic in January when they knew little at the very beginning. By the time of the Wuhan lockdown, there were 570 documented cases and 17 deaths. These numbers were alarming but not very illuminating. The Chinese chose to overreact, they closed off an entire province the size of Portugal and Hungary put together.

起初中国对病毒一无所知，一月份中国担心会发出错误的警报并引起恐慌。到武汉封城之际，共通报570例确诊病例和17人死亡。这些数字敲响了警钟，但还不致于太过刺眼。中国人选择“过度”反应 ，他们封锁了整个湖北省，面积相当于葡萄牙和匈牙利国土面积之和。

Should we blame them? Maybe. But it is always easy to judge with the benefit of hindsight. Foresight is totally another thing. You could be right and you could be wrong. 

我们应该责怪他们吗？也许吧。但事后诸葛亮谁都会，未卜先知却不容易做到。你可能是对的，也可能是错的。

Today, America blamed the WHO for doing too little too late. In 2009, the WHO was also blamed but for a different reason. It was criticized for overreacting. The swine flu that originated from a Mexico farm was declared as a pandemic because it looked like and acted like one. It turned out to kill only 0.01 percent of the infected, lower than a seasonal flu. And the world paid a huge sum of money and human resources to contain it. People blamed the WHO for overshooting. 

当前美国指责世卫组织反应迟缓、办事不力。2009年世卫组织也受到指责，但原因有所不同。当时人们批评它反应过度。源自墨西哥农场的猪流感被宣布为大流行病，因为它看起来像大流行病，传染方式也像大流行病。后来证实该病毒的致死率仅为0.01%，低于季节性流感。世界为遏制疫情付出了巨大的财力和人力，人们指责世卫组织反应过度。

To make matters worse, the impulse to think of the world as a place with simple answers may get us into rounds of blame games. People say things like the virus exists because the Chinese eat bats, the spread is because somebody hid the information, they sound right and make you feel vindicated, but they are not real reasons.

更糟糕的是，总是妄图在世界上寻找非黑即白的答案的想法，可能使我们陷入无止境的“甩锅”大战。有人说这种病毒之所以存在是因为中国人吃蝙蝠，病毒传播是因为有人故意隐瞒信息。这些说法听起来似乎有道理，使你感到自己的想法得到了证实，但这并不是真正的原因。

A pandemic like this has happened before, it is happening now and will happen again. And our human response may not be perfect, but we are better every time because we learn. Humans have beaten the small pox and SARS, we have a good chance to beat this one, but it takes time and most importantly it takes all of us to be honest and humble. 

像这样的大流行病曾经发生过，现在正在发生，未来还会出现。人类的反应可能并不完美，但是每一次学习都会使我们进步。人类已经击败天花和非典。我们击败新冠肺炎的概率也很高，但是这需要时间，更需要所有人保持坦诚和谦虚。

And there is only one thing that can make us honest and humble, that is truth backed by data and science. Data says what medicine works, not politicians. Data says where the virus came from, not senators. And scientists say we don't have enough data yet. 

只有一种事物可以使我们保持坦诚和谦虚，那就是具备数据和科学支持的真相。数据才能证明哪种药有效，而不是政客；数据才能证明病毒的来源，而不是参议员。科学家们表示我们还没有足够的数据。

The real truth has no regard for what you think and who you are. That may make us uncomfortable. But if you are brave enough, you will accept the world as it is, not as you want it to be.

事实真相与你的想法和身份无关。这可能使你感到不适。但如果你足够勇敢，便能够接受这个真实的世界，而不是你脑海中的世界。

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